Here we go again... El Niño is a naturalrecurring Pacific cycle. We’ve had strong ones before (1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) and the world didn’t end. This one may well be strong and will temporarily push global temperatures up a bit and that’s what El Niño does. It also shifts rainfall patterns, which is why some places get drier and others wetter. What’s new is the familiar media framing: every natural oscillation is now sold as “record,” “extreme,” and “amplified by climate change,” complete with worst-case food-security and 50 °C “feels-like” scenarios. The forecasts are probabilistic and not certain and the practical effects will vary widely by region. Thailand may see a tougher dry season and the Atlantic may see fewer hurricanes. That’s weather and not catastrophe but hey, need to sell clicks. Copied from elsewhere: We’ve managed previous strong El Niños without the current level of alarm. The sensible response is water management, crop planning and normal preparedness not treating a temporary ocean-atmosphere oscillation as existential drama. This is the difficult part specially here in Thailand: water management, crop planning (not so much) and normal preparedness.
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