Gold ... Safe-haven Or Ultimate Bear-trap

[lannarebirth]

It doesn't look to good.

880-850 next.

How can you tell, with all that crap on the chart?

[AlexLah]

Huh?

There is no crap on the chart, I have placed the chart in my model.

You think there are too many triangles lines and circles?

[lannarebirth]

Huh?

There is no crap on the chart, I have placed the chart in my model.

You think there are too many triangles lines and circles?

Ah, I see.

Well, I don't know if there are too many Alex. What is your model based on and what should we glean from it in your attached chart?

[jcon]

Huh?

There is no crap on the chart, I have placed the chart in my model.

You think there are too many triangles lines and circles?

Ah, I see.

Well, I don't know if there are too many Alex. What is your model based on and what should we glean from it in your attached chart?

lanna, can't you see, tis clearly the "Crop Circle" model, duh! (an advanced alien version of Black-Scholes). CONSPIRACY I say!

[lannarebirth]

Huh?

There is no crap on the chart, I have placed the chart in my model.

You think there are too many triangles lines and circles?

Ah, I see.

Well, I don't know if there are too many Alex. What is your model based on and what should we glean from it in your attached chart?

lanna, can't you see, tis clearly the "Crop Circle" model, duh! (an advanced alien version of Black-Scholes). CONSPIRACY I say!

Well, I keep an open mind about these things. You wouldn't believe some of the things I've seen people use with good results. I thought it looked like something out the Codex Leicester.

[AlexLah]

Maybe I should come over to CM and explain?

[AlexLah]

Weird?

[lannarebirth]

Weird?

Rogue wave.

[AlexLah]

A 60 Dollar swing up in just an hour ore so.

In the Kitco forum they say it was likely caused by the announcment of uncle Ben that they are going to "print" 300 Billion USD.

Rogue wave, more like a tsunami, ha ha ha!

[lannarebirth]

A 60 Dollar swing up in just an hour ore so.

In the Kitco forum they say it was likely caused by the announcment of uncle Ben that they are going to "print" 300 Billion USD.

Rogue wave, more like a tsunami, ha ha ha!

Turns out it was a beartrap. Now lets see if it becomes a bulltrap too.

[cclub75]

Watch out... Something is wrong...

Gold exports jumped more than 1,100 percent in February compared to the same month last year, while jewelry exports soared by 400 percent, helping to partially offset falling exports from other sectors. TOC

2 points :

-thais are ready to sell, they need cash

-someone "out there" is willing to pay, to buy the thai gold...

[Jake1]

The Fed and now the IMF are beginning to print. Metal vs Paper..my bet is on Metal

[Naam]

Weird?

not that weird as ~40 dollars due to dollar weakness.

[trogers]

Gold prices - Just another big bubble. Happens when the herd stampedes. Too much money chasing after a finite supply. Wait for that big bang...

[Harmonica]

Stop taken out - trade terminated!

Review:

The 1H traders with STOPs as per the trailing stops at bar highs mentioned above did really great. Heck, they did better than anybody could have done.

For me the trade, though profitable, didn't come anywhere close to their results.

This means that on the 4H timeframe my STOP at $916 could not have been improved upon. That it then was taken out tells me that there was NO TREND developed.

Wave analysis next.

[Harmonica]

Was this whipsaw action in Gold a wave c of 2 up? If so, then yesterday's wave 3 was within the context of a "b" of 2. If true then my original call for a huge wave C down is still in the cards.

On Log scale daily chart the trendline was broken twice as per the clue I mentioned. The whipsaw then sees her back above the trendline again. Goldie playing hard to get.

On the daily chart shown she looks like she could fall off a cliff as per my call but on the 1H timeframe the upmove is awesomely impressive.

Deception? That's normal for Gold. If you sign up to play that's part of the game.

So, rekindling the objective - catch the wave south and ride it to the last station.

What if the wave is to the north? ..... it won't take me long to realize this if such turns out to be the case, but for now I'm sticking to my current gameplan. I have no position now that my STOP has been taken out.

[Jake1]

Gold prices - Just another big bubble. Happens when the herd stampedes. Too much money chasing after a finite supply. Wait for that big bang...

The heard has barely begun to move. They're still clueless as to what's being done to their money. Once the heard starts to realize that fiat always fails and that the Central Bankers are hel_l Bent on Inflation then you'll see the stampede towards Gold and Silver.

Right now people still think Treasuries are the safe place to be

[12DrinkMore]

Was this whipsaw action in Gold a wave c of 2 up? If so, then yesterday's wave 3 was within the context of a "b" of 2. If true then my original call for a huge wave C down is still in the cards.

On Log scale daily chart the trendline was broken twice as per the clue I mentioned. The whipsaw then sees her back above the trendline again. Goldie playing hard to get.

On the daily chart shown she looks like she could fall off a cliff as per my call but on the 1H timeframe the upmove is awesomely impressive.

Deception? That's normal for Gold. If you sign up to play that's part of the game.

So, rekindling the objective - catch the wave south and ride it to the last station.

What if the wave is to the north? ..... it won't take me long to realize this if such turns out to be the case, but for now I'm sticking to my current gameplan. I have no position now that my STOP has been taken out.

What language is that written in?

[badge]

Gold could go either way from here, I wouldnt like to say, I personally think its a useless yellow metal fit for little more than garish jewelry, but I wont argue with the price

[churchill]

HEDGE FUND MAKES HEADLONG RUSH INTO GOLD

ANDY HOFFMAN

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

March 18, 2009 at 1:00 AM EDT

Investor John Paulson, whose hedge fund made billions betting against subprime mortgages, is making a massively bullish call on gold.

Paulson & Co. paid $1.28-billion (U.S.) yesterday for an 11-per-cent stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., one of the world's largest miners of the precious metal.

The deal is just the latest example of a major international investor buying into bullion as a safe haven amid the global financial crisis.

As the economic meltdown has worsened in recent weeks and months, firms such as Eton Park Capital Management LP, Greenlight Capital Inc. and Hayman Advisors LP have been boosting their exposure to the yellow metal. The investment funds are turning to gold as central banks around the world continue to print money in hopes of stimulating economic growth.

Investor John Paulson, whose hedge fund made billions betting against subprime mortgages, is making a massively bullish call on gold.

While it has yet to happen, many believe that the monetary stimulus efforts will cause a spike in inflation. Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against price increases and declining currency values.

“As the world deals with the global economic crisis, the value of gold, as the only true ‘hard currency,' is coming to the fore as evidenced by the investment choices of some of the world's most seasoned investors,” AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. chief executive officer Mark Cutifani said yesterday.

New York-based Paulson, which manages about $30-billion, earned $15-billion in 2007 by betting against subprime mortgages.

The firm's flagship fund returned 37 per cent in 2008, compared with an average loss of 19 per cent for other hedge funds.

As part of yesterday's deal, Paulson bought 39.9 million shares in South Africa-based AngloGold from mining giant Anglo American PLC. The diversified British miner owned 42 per cent of AngloGold in 2006. Following yesterday's stock sale to Paulson, Anglo American no longer owned a stake in the gold miner.

“We believe AngloGold Ashanti is one of the best managed and undervalued of the major global gold-mining companies,” Paulson said in a statement.

Recently, Paulson has been betting against banking stocks such as Lloyds Banking Group PLC and HBOS PLC. At the same time, Paulson has been going long on gold and gold stocks.

Paulson owns about 28 million shares of Toronto's Kinross Gold Corp. or about 4 per cent of the company, according to regulatory filings. Earlier this month, Paulson told clients it will offer investors a new share class pegged to the price of gold.

“We're extremely pleased that someone with John Paulson's track record and reputation has chosen AngloGold Ashanti as one of his investments through which to increase his exposure to the gold market,” Mr. Cutifani said.

Paulson isn't the only hedge fund getting into gold in the belief that the metal will prove a store of value as some countries default on their debts, putting negative pressure on currencies. According to The Wall Street Journal, gold is the largest investment in the portfolio of Greenlight Capital Inc. The New York-based fund, which is led by David Einhorn, has been buying exchange-traded funds holding gold as well as gold futures contracts.

Hayman Advisors, another fund that boosted returns by betting against subprime mortgages, is also buying gold.

“People will look to ‘old-fashioned' stores of value – those which represented money long before green pieces of paper backed a promise existed,” Kyle Bass, who runs Hayman, recently told investors.

[churchill]

and more gossip

Gold, Gossip and Russias Tu-160 Bombers

by Adrian Ash

http://safehaven.com/article-12858.htm

[AlexLah]

Ok, the latest waves.

Do I need to make it more clear?

Follow the lines.

[churchill]

I'd go for the Double 20 Top .

[lannarebirth]

Yes, now I have a clue to the wavecount.

We are in wave 3 down. In the larger context of my original call for wave C down on the daily chart, this current move would be wave 3 of (1) down.

I'll post a chart tomorrow.

If there are any 60-min. players, this is a huge chunk of profit for high leverage entries, so make sure you close out partial positions with trailing stops at a notch above each 1H bar. Don't get careless here. Wave 3 rides are for alert individuals as the profit per millimetre is substantial on even moderate leverage.

For my friend lannarebirth, when the Devil tempted Jesus he said, "behold, all this shall I give to thee, if .......

We know that Jesus turned him down. Why? ... Because he knew what Bobby Prechter defined so thoroughly (in his book) was just around the corner, "Wave 3s are wonders to behold"

Yes, I know.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2244984

Anyway, nice trade, though it looks like you left a little on the table.

[Harmonica]

Gold Trade #2 preparation is underway.

Gold currently @ $955.

Have not pulled the trigger yet.

First, a thorough review of Trade #1 so I can later come back and see where flaws/strengths were and improve technique as time progresses.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Trade #1

4H players like myself:

Profit = 968 - 916 = $52 (very straightforward calculation)

----------------------------------------------------------------

1H fellows as per my instructions: (Note, this does not include me as I play only on 4H/Daily)

Profit = $103 (too complicated as there were variables like sometimes no instructions, so a couple reentry assumptions are used here)

----------------------------------------------------------------

1H explanatory notes

Profit = (1) ................. (980 - 941) + (980 - 932) .... i.e. half positions closed as per instructions. = $48

(2) 930 reentry assumed as there were no instructions for this ... partial exits 906, 912, 923 = $24

(3) lost track of the 1H scene so another assumption made here that their reentry was a tame 923, so 923 - 892 (see below for bar by bar instruction I had posted) = $31

"If there are any 60-min. players, this is a huge chunk of profit for high leverage entries, so make sure you close out partial positions with trailing stops at a notch above each 1H bar. Don't get careless here. Wave 3 rides are for alert individuals as the profit per millimetre is substantial on even moderate leverage".

-------------------------------------------------------------------

[Harmonica]

Note: No mention of leverage used or position size, so each one has to do this for himself to get the total $ amount of profit.

[Harmonica]

Reviewing my 4H performance and especially looking for flaws:

Profit was decent enough, but most importantly, the preservation of capital, the foundational weaponry of all warriors, was flawless.

First things first, the 1H timeframe scored double my preferred 4H frame in profits but would I change to 1H? Not a chance. Why? Because Life is too important to be given up for computer watching. The 4H frame allows me to be away from the computer for hours and hours at a time and in some cases for days. I'll take a 50-75% cut in salary just for this benefit. No complaints here. Daily and 4H are my playgrounds.

Looking at the STOP at $916 and the accelerating drop to $883, one could say I could have had an extra $33 of profit. True, but I play for the TREND on 4H/Daily and in a real TREND, getting blown off like this don't happen unless a true reversal is taking place. The question of reversal does not apply here because there was no true downtrend in the first place.

Then I laugh at myself for mistaking a 3rd wave of a "b" wave for the real thing. I had said earlier that "B" waves are for suckers and this time I was one of the suckers. Will it happen again? It will. Can I minimize it? ... the only way I know how to do this is by the use of a judicious STOP, as I have been doing all along. Maybe as the months go by, I might develop a better way to not fall prey to a marauding wave B's trap without going to a lower timeframe such as the 1H, but its wishful thinking at best.

Finally, my comments about Jesus and the 3rd of 3rd are not mistakes of Elliottwave methodology, rather they are mistakes in timing by the practitioner, (a perennial occupational hazard) namely yours truly.

- end of review -

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Preparation for battle, Trade #2 is underway now. No position yet.

[Harmonica]

SHORT opened @ $957.1

STOP above the top @ 958.7

a low-leverage opening position to test the waters

[Harmonica]

SHORT opened @ $957.1

STOP above the top @ 958.7

a low-leverage opening position to test the waters

------------------------------

Stopped out! Trade terminated.

-------------------------------------------

New market order for SHORT @ $953.25 - current price @ $963.7. So the order has not triggered yet.

[Harmonica]

Yes, now I have a clue to the wavecount.

We are in wave 3 down. In the larger context of my original call for wave C down on the daily chart, this current move would be wave 3 of (1) down.

I'll post a chart tomorrow.

If there are any 60-min. players, this is a huge chunk of profit for high leverage entries, so make sure you close out partial positions with trailing stops at a notch above each 1H bar. Don't get careless here. Wave 3 rides are for alert individuals as the profit per millimetre is substantial on even moderate leverage.

For my friend lannarebirth, when the Devil tempted Jesus he said, "behold, all this shall I give to thee, if .......

We know that Jesus turned him down. Why? ... Because he knew what Bobby Prechter defined so thoroughly (in his book) was just around the corner, "Wave 3s are wonders to behold"

Yes, I know.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2244984

Anyway, nice trade, though it looks like you left a little on the table.

-----------------------------------

Thanks. Actually I left alot on the table but can't see myself trading on the 1H timeframe - too strenuous. Anyway I've analyzed this trade for errors. If you read the posts, let me know if you have other suggestions - other than suggesting I TRASH Elliottwave analysis.

By the way, noticed you use quite a few indicators in your charts - in a prev. Euro index chart you had, I believe, 3 indicators. Why?