Thailand - Set & Set50 Futures Wave Analysis

[Harmonica]

Here's my post from Feb 2, 2005:

Kim Eng Securities -- branches all over LOS -- ranked #1 and GOOD!!!

No expert -- just IMHO we're going south after this bogus rally completes. Review situation after SET=430 -- expectation of SET=205 or thereabouts in 3 years.

Having said that however, there will be plenty of intermediate-term rallies along the way -- I'll be there for them. Then, when Lord Thaksin gets SHORTING not just OKed, but implemented, I'll take some big swings at the brokerage sector -- for if this scenario plays out, many will go under, just as many did in 1997+.

----------------------

That was then.

Lord Thaksin is gone but I hope he'll come back. I want him to.

Shorting is now allowed on the Set50 futures. This is a huge +

---------------------------------------------------

The CALL

Target #1 of 430 has been reached.

Current resting or rocket launch level = 380

Only if this 380 level fails do I have the following targets, any one of which could be the final resting/launch point.

360

290

202 - 205

--------------------------------------------------------

[Harmonica]

Why is the current November bottom at 380 so important and why would it be foolhardy to predict any further downside crashes?

Because 380 is a perfect 161.8% hit. And I mean PERFECT, not just nicked, a perfect touchdown. This of course will have escaped all anal-ysts attention.

A perfect hit such as this one can signal an end to the current downwave - not necessarily the full bearmarket although that too is possible.

It can also signal the start of a significant upwave rally - which as anybody can see, has happened already and is ongoing.

What's even more gorgeous, and again escaped every anal-yst's attention, is that the upwave rally from November low is an impulse wave, i.e. 5-subwaves - a trademark of aborning trend.

Anybody else show this similar 5-wave impulse?

No surprise here, its the likely next superpower, Cheeno.

And little LOS rests on the foothills of Cheeno. They go together possibly even more so in the future than LOS/Nikkei or LOS/KingKong.

So the smart thing to do is WAIT and SEE! Do nothing.

Watch 450 first and then a continuation past 480 for clues to the possible upside.

-----------------------------------------------

One interesting note about this little, magnificent country and Exchange called LOS & SET respy. .....

The collective unconscious mind of LOS is no different than that of the Brits' or Americans'

And although the former came all this way here to only meet each other, the latter for the most part are very interested in Thais and they are right to be for this little country obeys/responds to finesse just as well as the Footsie and Dow Jones.

And what's more, there is no capitalgains tax for players who want to court her. Try that with a farang woman. Remember Eddie Murphy? .... Half?

All of the above is the new definition of SERENDIPITY.

[Harmonica]

Moving on then to the macro view of Thailand by viewing the monthly chart ...

My wave analysis of Thailand:

The 1994 top completed a 5-wave impulse bullmarket move. All hel_l should break loose thereafter and it did with the currency crisis causing Thailand's SET to crash into the 1998 low.

There is no doubt in my mind that this crash was/is Wave 4. This means a magnificent wave 5 UP, UP, UP is yet to come - i.e. a bullmarket that will take SET into a 50-100 year rocket surge way past the 1994 top.

So what the heck is my problem then? Why don't I buy now and stick it under the mattress and hold for the rest of this lifetime, come back as a Chinaman, cross the border into LOS and claim my profits 200 yrs from now, capital-gains-taxfree?

Because significant alternative counts are gnawing at me, tormenting me so to speak - what are they, briefly?

(1) My main count: We are in wave C down currently. When complete, this will finish wave IV down which started at the alltime top in 1994. Then the wave V bull northbound begins.

(2) 2nd possible scenario: What if wave IV finished at the international 9/11, 2001 low? ... ( this would imply a failed 5th sub-wave within "c" ) ... if this is the case, then the bullmarket wave V up has already started from the 2001 low. Wave 1 circled of this bull completed at 2007 top and we are now in 2 circled down. 3 circled UP comes next and no matter who you are you don't want to miss this - this wave's personality is a Porsche aka el rapidissimo gains per unit of time and it could last 50+ years.

(3) 3rd possible scenario: A long drawn out sideways triangle for Wave IV - an A-B-C-D-E that can be nerve-wracking. This too could stretch for years and years.

------------------------------------------------------

[khunjake]

Great Work Harmonica. I am also now looking into trading on the TFEX via SET50 futures. I have traded NDX futures for many years already on the CME. Are you still with Kim Eng for you trading? Would you still recommend this broker or any other. Thanks for the insight

Moving on then to the macro view of Thailand by viewing the monthly chart ...

My wave analysis of Thailand:

The 1994 top completed a 5-wave impulse bullmarket move. All hel_l should break loose thereafter and it did with the currency crisis causing Thailand's SET to crash into the 1998 low.

There is no doubt in my mind that this crash was/is Wave 4. This means a magnificent wave 5 UP, UP, UP is yet to come - i.e. a bullmarket that will take SET into a 50-100 year rocket surge way past the 1994 top.

So what the heck is my problem then? Why don't I buy now and stick it under the mattress and hold for the rest of this lifetime, come back as a Chinaman, cross the border into LOS and claim my profits 200 yrs from now, capital-gains-taxfree?

Because significant alternative counts are gnawing at me, tormenting me so to speak - what are they, briefly?

(1) My main count: We are in wave C down currently. When complete, this will finish wave IV down which started at the alltime top in 1994. Then the wave V bull northbound begins.

(2) 2nd possible scenario: What if wave IV finished at the international 9/11, 2001 low? ... ( this would imply a failed 5th sub-wave within "c" ) ... if this is the case, then the bullmarket wave V up has already started from the 2001 low. Wave 1 circled of this bull completed at 2007 top and we are now in 2 circled down. 3 circled UP comes next and no matter who you are you don't want to miss this - this wave's personality is a Porsche aka el rapidissimo gains per unit of time and it could last 50+ years.

(3) 3rd possible scenario: A long drawn out sideways triangle for Wave IV - an A-B-C-D-E that can be nerve-wracking. This too could stretch for years and years.

------------------------------------------------------

[lannarebirth]

Great Work Harmonica. I am also now looking into trading on the TFEX via SET50 futures. I have traded NDX futures for many years already on the CME. Are you still with Kim Eng for you trading? Would you still recommend this broker or any other. Thanks for the insight

Moving on then to the macro view of Thailand by viewing the monthly chart ...

My wave analysis of Thailand:

The 1994 top completed a 5-wave impulse bullmarket move. All hel_l should break loose thereafter and it did with the currency crisis causing Thailand's SET to crash into the 1998 low.

There is no doubt in my mind that this crash was/is Wave 4. This means a magnificent wave 5 UP, UP, UP is yet to come - i.e. a bullmarket that will take SET into a 50-100 year rocket surge way past the 1994 top.

So what the heck is my problem then? Why don't I buy now and stick it under the mattress and hold for the rest of this lifetime, come back as a Chinaman, cross the border into LOS and claim my profits 200 yrs from now, capital-gains-taxfree?

Because significant alternative counts are gnawing at me, tormenting me so to speak - what are they, briefly?

(1) My main count: We are in wave C down currently. When complete, this will finish wave IV down which started at the alltime top in 1994. Then the wave V bull northbound begins.

(2) 2nd possible scenario: What if wave IV finished at the international 9/11, 2001 low? ... ( this would imply a failed 5th sub-wave within "c" ) ... if this is the case, then the bullmarket wave V up has already started from the 2001 low. Wave 1 circled of this bull completed at 2007 top and we are now in 2 circled down. 3 circled UP comes next and no matter who you are you don't want to miss this - this wave's personality is a Porsche aka el rapidissimo gains per unit of time and it could last 50+ years.

(3) 3rd possible scenario: A long drawn out sideways triangle for Wave IV - an A-B-C-D-E that can be nerve-wracking. This too could stretch for years and years.

------------------------------------------------------

What is the average daily contract volume if I may ask?

[lannarebirth]

A quick Google provided the information:

daily average in 2008 comprised 8,498 contracts of SET50 Index Futures

[Harmonica]

OK, now that I've shown the monthly view, let's zero in on the daily chart and start the process of timing the intermediate and final bottom.

This is a worthwhile endeavor because the next bullmarket will last 50-100+ years, so one can just rename the stock certificates to wifey's name with strict instructions (yeah, I'm dreaming here) on when to sell and if mama interferes, a warning that I'll visit as a ghost and she'll have no peace.

This is a work in progress as the count is excruciatingly difficult due to the very first descent from Nov'07 being an apparent 3-wave structure. This is a giant no-no for my presumed wave C down. So this bothers me quite a bit and there is nobody with whom to dual-terminal discharge this stress, not in LOS or even the giant institutions abroad that invest in LOS. I gots to do this entirely alone.

Whatever.

Let's get to it.

-----------------------------------------------

[Harmonica]

If we go down hard below 423 then waves (i) and (ii) marked in the chart at extreme right hand side are spot on.

If not, and instead we go north of 489, then I go back to the drawing board.

[Harmonica]

Sorry, need to make sure I don't lose the plot, so .....

At this time NO ENTRY is stance.

[khunjake]

The SET has been holding up quite well. Maybe this is due to such low P/E multiples for most of the Thai big cap stocks. Still haven't started with opening an account here yet but any TFEX broker recommendations would be greatly appreciated (for internet trading). Kim Eng seems to be the largest and most well known in Thailand and that's who I am leaning towards right now.

[badge]

Harmonica - On a monthly chart I think you'd be best served using Log fib's, i.e. using % fibs as opposed to nominal fibs. Also on your monthly chart you have C, IV and 2 all around 300? I dont understand.

[Harmonica]

Great Work Harmonica. I am also now looking into trading on the TFEX via SET50 futures. I have traded NDX futures for many years already on the CME. Are you still with Kim Eng for you trading? Would you still recommend this broker or any other. Thanks for the insight

Moving on then to the macro view of Thailand by viewing the monthly chart ...

My wave analysis of Thailand:

The 1994 top completed a 5-wave impulse bullmarket move. All hel_l should break loose thereafter and it did with the currency crisis causing Thailand's SET to crash into the 1998 low.

There is no doubt in my mind that this crash was/is Wave 4. This means a magnificent wave 5 UP, UP, UP is yet to come - i.e. a bullmarket that will take SET into a 50-100 year rocket surge way past the 1994 top.

So what the heck is my problem then? Why don't I buy now and stick it under the mattress and hold for the rest of this lifetime, come back as a Chinaman, cross the border into LOS and claim my profits 200 yrs from now, capital-gains-taxfree?

Because significant alternative counts are gnawing at me, tormenting me so to speak - what are they, briefly?

(1) My main count: We are in wave C down currently. When complete, this will finish wave IV down which started at the alltime top in 1994. Then the wave V bull northbound begins.

(2) 2nd possible scenario: What if wave IV finished at the international 9/11, 2001 low? ... ( this would imply a failed 5th sub-wave within "c" ) ... if this is the case, then the bullmarket wave V up has already started from the 2001 low. Wave 1 circled of this bull completed at 2007 top and we are now in 2 circled down. 3 circled UP comes next and no matter who you are you don't want to miss this - this wave's personality is a Porsche aka el rapidissimo gains per unit of time and it could last 50+ years.

(3) 3rd possible scenario: A long drawn out sideways triangle for Wave IV - an A-B-C-D-E that can be nerve-wracking. This too could stretch for years and years.

------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------

My stock/Set50 futures trading account is with Kim Eng - IMO, they're the best. Great service, let you use their trading stations whenever you want, sometimes even giving me a special room they call the VIP suite, but really any foreigner can use these facilities easily.

I used to have accounts with Seamico, Adkinson Securities, Tisco, etc., but am letting all these go dormant.

The Set50 futures is a real boon to us foreigners because the money is good and SHORTING is allowed. The pay is good if you're right - 1,000 Baht per Set50 point per contract. That is good money for life in LOS - in $ terms its not impressive but this is LOS and we're supposed to have left our baggage at home.

When world markets return to normalcy, I plan to give up all other markets worldwide, including currency trading and just trade the Set50 futures exclusively.

Right now I am sidelined wating to see if SET can hold 370. Failure here would confirm my decision to hold 100% cash.

I can't wait to get back in the game.

[Harmonica]

A quick Google provided the information:

daily average in 2008 comprised 8,498 contracts of SET50 Index Futures

--------------------------------

You could just as easily have asked her!

http://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/sectoriali...amp;language=en

Fiddle around with all the links, there's a treasure trove of info.

And you lannare will be especially thrilled to know that we don't pay any capital gains tax here. Whatever you make is yours or if you're married, its hers.

LOS continues to thrill the soul.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica - On a monthly chart I think you'd be best served using Log fib's, i.e. using % fibs as opposed to nominal fibs. Also on your monthly chart you have C, IV and 2 all around 300? I dont understand.

---------------------

I use Metastock and all my charts are in LOG scale - so the Fibs come out as-is and there is no fiddler for this function in the dialog box (or missed something?)

The symbols for waves C, IV and 2 circled represent alternative counts - based on the different possible scenarious I see. Placed close to each other just for quick visual view of the possibilities.

If wave IV ended in Oct 2000, then for wave 2 circled to be valid it must end above this low.

If wave IV is ongoing then it will end below the 1998 low.

However, if you've read my other posts, esp. on fibonacci magic, you will see that SET hit a perfect, I mean not close or approximate, but poy-fect 161.8% @ 381 in November (26th).

161.8% can halt a freight train, a raging tsunami, even George Bush. And it appears to have halted this beauty too - at least arrested any further decline. Ditto story with China, LOS's sister, Dow Jones Transports, Germany DAX and Dow Jones came close but not perfect.

If this is the ultimate low for the BEAR in LOS, a raging bullmarket can resume from here and go on for 100 years.

I don't mind waiting a few weeks with my hands in my pockets to see that this level will hold firm.

If the level fails, ....... we'll cross that bridge later ....

[badge]

Harmonica - On a monthly chart I think you'd be best served using Log fib's, i.e. using % fibs as opposed to nominal fibs. Also on your monthly chart you have C, IV and 2 all around 300? I dont understand.

---------------------

I use Metastock and all my charts are in LOG scale - so the Fibs come out as-is and there is no fiddler for this function in the dialog box (or missed something?)

[...]

thanks.

yes most software wont do it for you, you have to do it the old fashioned way; with a pen a ruler and a piece of paper just a personal preference. Bon Chance'

[khunjake]

Thanks for the insight Harmonica. I am getting much closer to opening my KE account actually. The US exchanges are still way to volatile and manipulated. As an intermediate trader, I am finding it more difficult to stay positioned on either side. I am thinking of trading 2 or 3 SET50 contracts to start with. I strictly trade futres using EMA daily crossovers and not Elliott Wave actually. I find "E-Wave" to be too subjective and there is always some alternative count somewhere. Cheers.

My stock/Set50 futures trading account is with Kim Eng - IMO, they're the best. Great service, let you use their trading stations whenever you want, sometimes even giving me a special room they call the VIP suite, but really any foreigner can use these facilities easily.

I used to have accounts with Seamico, Adkinson Securities, Tisco, etc., but am letting all these go dormant.

The Set50 futures is a real boon to us foreigners because the money is good and SHORTING is allowed. The pay is good if you're right - 1,000 Baht per Set50 point per contract. That is good money for life in LOS - in $ terms its not impressive but this is LOS and we're supposed to have left our baggage at home.

When world markets return to normalcy, I plan to give up all other markets worldwide, including currency trading and just trade the Set50 futures exclusively.

Right now I am sidelined wating to see if SET can hold 370. Failure here would confirm my decision to hold 100% cash.

I can't wait to get back in the game.

[Harmonica]

Thanks for the insight Harmonica. I am getting much closer to opening my KE account actually. The US exchanges are still way to volatile and manipulated. As an intermediate trader, I am finding it more difficult to stay positioned on either side. I am thinking of trading 2 or 3 SET50 contracts to start with. I strictly trade futres using EMA daily crossovers and not Elliott Wave actually. I find "E-Wave" to be too subjective and there is always some alternative count somewhere. Cheers.

My stock/Set50 futures trading account is with Kim Eng - IMO, they're the best. Great service, let you use their trading stations whenever you want, sometimes even giving me a special room they call the VIP suite, but really any foreigner can use these facilities easily.

I used to have accounts with Seamico, Adkinson Securities, Tisco, etc., but am letting all these go dormant.

The Set50 futures is a real boon to us foreigners because the money is good and SHORTING is allowed. The pay is good if you're right - 1,000 Baht per Set50 point per contract. That is good money for life in LOS - in $ terms its not impressive but this is LOS and we're supposed to have left our baggage at home.

When world markets return to normalcy, I plan to give up all other markets worldwide, including currency trading and just trade the Set50 futures exclusively.

Right now I am sidelined wating to see if SET can hold 370. Failure here would confirm my decision to hold 100% cash.

I can't wait to get back in the game.

----------------------------

Elliottwave is hard - there's no denying this. All my friends died in 2002-2005. I'm the only one left, not because I'm smarter, rather because very early in trading Providence intervened one afternoon in the depth of my despair, curled up like a foetus, glancing at the computer and saw a perfect rebound from a trendline. Something fired within me and I was on a high for days that Providence in its own subtle way had brought one of Nature's free gifts to my attention - the trendline on Log scale.

So if you continue with your moving averages, add a trendline, watch for stairsteps you're already a winner. You don't need elliottwave to be successful.

Goodluck

[CaptainARK1]

Harmonica - On a monthly chart I think you'd be best served using Log fib's, i.e. using % fibs as opposed to nominal fibs. Also on your monthly chart you have C, IV and 2 all around 300? I dont understand.

---------------------

I use Metastock and all my charts are in LOG scale - so the Fibs come out as-is and there is no fiddler for this function in the dialog box (or missed something?)

The symbols for waves C, IV and 2 circled represent alternative counts - based on the different possible scenarious I see. Placed close to each other just for quick visual view of the possibilities.

If wave IV ended in Oct 2000, then for wave 2 circled to be valid it must end above this low.

If wave IV is ongoing then it will end below the 1998 low.

However, if you've read my other posts, esp. on fibonacci magic, you will see that SET hit a perfect, I mean not close or approximate, but poy-fect 161.8% @ 381 in November (26th).

161.8% can halt a freight train, a raging tsunami, even George Bush. And it appears to have halted this beauty too - at least arrested any further decline. Ditto story with China, LOS's sister, Dow Jones Transports, Germany DAX and Dow Jones came close but not perfect.

If this is the ultimate low for the BEAR in LOS, a raging bullmarket can resume from here and go on for 100 years.

I don't mind waiting a few weeks with my hands in my pockets to see that this level will hold firm.

If the level fails, ....... we'll cross that bridge later ....

------------------------------

Shame you had to leave. Just 20 days after your departure, SET Index gave OUR Trend Reversal Signal on April 10 & April 29 for either bullrun or bearmarket rally - either one.

So, taking the baton, where do we stand right now on September 2 .... ?

The bearmarket is on the verge of un-hibernating = resuming = Captain calls the TOP for SET

signs to watch for .... none have occurred yet ....

a drop below 640 = uptrendline from March low is hammered.

a drop below 630 = major fibonacci supports hammered.

but most likely, most in Thailand will miss the Tiger in the back door already - namely the dungeon buster, the US Dollar, currently consolidating yesterday's gains on 60-min. chart. If he decides to move north this afternoon or whenever, video cam the mass oxodus of foreign traders as they stampede. So IMO the entire CALL depends on the US Dollar doing what I think it should do.

Same logic applies to SET50 futures, except that here a 5-min. timeframe crash will see me Short in a heartbeat.

[CaptainARK1]

A day after my last post, SET touched the trendline mentioned and rose to a new top. This trendline has now been confirmed as a significant support.

My 1st attempt at calling a top is wrong.

2nd attempt:

Major resistance at 693. SET got there today. A close below 652 (daily basis) will start the wave down that I'm after. I still might take the first 5-min crash, which will be much closer to 685 or so, and short it via the Set50 futures but high confidence only if the trendline is broken.

[samran]

so, in plain english, what are you saying? That we should all sell?

[SimonSP]

[Hi to all on the forum. I am new.

Informative discussion.

I am looking to short the SET & soon. I like Elliott Wave, it seems to have a bit going for it.

I live in Pattaya. How do I trade?

Any clues?

Harmonica makes a good argument. Much As I have been feeling

Best regards

Simon

[pariya]

[Hi to all on the forum. I am new.

Informative discussion.

I am looking to short the SET & soon. I like Elliott Wave, it seems to have a bit going for it.

I live in Pattaya. How do I trade?

Any clues?

Harmonica makes a good argument. Much As I have been feeling

Best regards

Simon

Dear Simon

As I read thru the post, a clearer sign of correction has appeared on the day graph.

I should have known how to attached a pix in the comment box, so I could use some help on checking my judgement.

For your futures trading, I recommend KTZmico. They have branches in Pattaya and Cholburi. The Manager of Pattaya branch speak a beautiful english and very active diving lover

Good luck

[pariya]

By the way, KTZmico have a Derivatives Center, taking care of futures and options trading. Check out da website at www.ktzmico.com

[CaptainARK1]

A day after my last post, SET touched the trendline mentioned and rose to a new top. This trendline has now been confirmed as a significant support.

My 1st attempt at calling a top is wrong.

2nd attempt:

Major resistance at 693. SET got there today. A close below 652 (daily basis) will start the wave down that I'm after. I still might take the first 5-min crash, which will be much closer to 685 or so, and short it via the Set50 futures but high confidence only if the trendline is broken.

5-min. chart shorting now in play. But semi-tight stops on Set50 futures because today's close of SET = 694 is right on strong fibonacci support, so SET/Set50 could bounce and kill the shorties quick.

Strong uptrendline support is at 663. If we go below this, accelerate shorts, especially if downside volume increases to > 25 b Baht

We could have a party on our hands, but we need more confirmation.

[thaijasmine]

5-min. chart shorting now in play. But semi-tight stops on Set50 futures because today's close of SET = 694 is right on strong fibonacci support, so SET/Set50 could bounce and kill the shorties quick.

Strong uptrendline support is at 663. If we go below this, accelerate shorts, especially if downside volume increases to > 25 b Baht

We could have a party on our hands, but we need more confirmation.

Do you really think SET has hit the top?

What in your view is the uppermost line of resistance ?

[pariya]

A day after my last post, SET touched the trendline mentioned and rose to a new top. This trendline has now been confirmed as a significant support.

My 1st attempt at calling a top is wrong.

2nd attempt:

Major resistance at 693. SET got there today. A close below 652 (daily basis) will start the wave down that I'm after. I still might take the first 5-min crash, which will be much closer to 685 or so, and short it via the Set50 futures but high confidence only if the trendline is broken.

5-min. chart shorting now in play. But semi-tight stops on Set50 futures because today's close of SET = 694 is right on strong fibonacci support, so SET/Set50 could bounce and kill the shorties quick.

Strong uptrendline support is at 663. If we go below this, accelerate shorts, especially if downside volume increases to > 25 b Baht

We could have a party on our hands, but we need more confirmation.

Talking SET50 Futures interm of SET is a bit confusing. But as I'm watching, SET has rebounced as high as 5.99 points, reached 700.31, before dropped down to 697.83. In term of SET50, the highest point reached 501.61. For those intraday trader, they probaply bet on the 10 day sma support around 492-487.

As I'm posing, the SET/SET50 is rebounced back. Will see what will happend (--")

[KevinBloodyWilson]

A day after my last post, SET touched the trendline mentioned and rose to a new top. This trendline has now been confirmed as a significant support.

My 1st attempt at calling a top is wrong.

2nd attempt:

Major resistance at 693. SET got there today. A close below 652 (daily basis) will start the wave down that I'm after. I still might take the first 5-min crash, which will be much closer to 685 or so, and short it via the Set50 futures but high confidence only if the trendline is broken.

5-min. chart shorting now in play. But semi-tight stops on Set50 futures because today's close of SET = 694 is right on strong fibonacci support, so SET/Set50 could bounce and kill the shorties quick.

Strong uptrendline support is at 663. If we go below this, accelerate shorts, especially if downside volume increases to > 25 b Baht

We could have a party on our hands, but we need more confirmation.

Talking SET50 Futures interm of SET is a bit confusing. But as I'm watching, SET has rebounced as high as 5.99 points, reached 700.31, before dropped down to 697.83. In term of SET50, the highest point reached 501.61. For those intraday trader, they probaply bet on the 10 day sma support around 492-487.

As I'm posing, the SET/SET50 is rebounced back. Will see what will happend (--")

Who do I have to see to open an account to trade the SET in LOS?

[thaijasmine]

A day after my last post, SET touched the trendline mentioned and rose to a new top. This trendline has now been confirmed as a significant support.

My 1st attempt at calling a top is wrong.

2nd attempt:

Major resistance at 693. SET got there today. A close below 652 (daily basis) will start the wave down that I'm after. I still might take the first 5-min crash, which will be much closer to 685 or so, and short it via the Set50 futures but high confidence only if the trendline is broken.

5-min. chart shorting now in play. But semi-tight stops on Set50 futures because today's close of SET = 694 is right on strong fibonacci support, so SET/Set50 could bounce and kill the shorties quick.

Strong uptrendline support is at 663. If we go below this, accelerate shorts, especially if downside volume increases to > 25 b Baht

We could have a party on our hands, but we need more confirmation.

Talking SET50 Futures interm of SET is a bit confusing. But as I'm watching, SET has rebounced as high as 5.99 points, reached 700.31, before dropped down to 697.83. In term of SET50, the highest point reached 501.61. For those intraday trader, they probaply bet on the 10 day sma support around 492-487.

As I'm posing, the SET/SET50 is rebounced back. Will see what will happend (--")

everyone know by now the USA market is being supported by Government intervention.

Do you think there is anything like that going on at the SET which would

stop it from falling? I mean its apparent strength is mondboggling

[Abrak]

everyone know by now the USA market is being supported by Government intervention.

Do you think there is anything like that going on at the SET which would

stop it from falling? I mean its apparent strength is mondboggling

Mindboggling? The market was 1784 15 years ago - it is now 700. The last stock I noticed listing was TTCL on a PE of 6.5x in June. We are hardly looking at a massive bull run with gross overvaluations.

[CaptainARK1]

A day after my last post, SET touched the trendline mentioned and rose to a new top. This trendline has now been confirmed as a significant support.

My 1st attempt at calling a top is wrong.

2nd attempt:

Major resistance at 693. SET got there today. A close below 652 (daily basis) will start the wave down that I'm after. I still might take the first 5-min crash, which will be much closer to 685 or so, and short it via the Set50 futures but high confidence only if the trendline is broken.

5-min. chart shorting now in play. But semi-tight stops on Set50 futures because today's close of SET = 694 is right on strong fibonacci support, so SET/Set50 could bounce and kill the shorties quick.

Strong uptrendline support is at 663. If we go below this, accelerate shorts, especially if downside volume increases to > 25 b Baht

We could have a party on our hands, but we need more confirmation.

------------------------------

So far, in trying to catch the next wave down, I've done 6 trades and net loss is 4 points. Trade size is still low as there is no reversal yet. All trades are on 5-min. until after confirmation of reversal, then switch to Daily timeframe. That's the plan.

I prefer not to, but don't mind a loss of upto 50 points in trying to catch the wave - then once right, upping the # contracts will see me in the green in a single day or at most 3 days.

That's the technique - almost same as the Turtle method used by the great TREND followers like John Henry, Richard Donchian, Ed Sekota

et al.

These gents sometimes made 5-20 losing trades while trying to catch the wave but the secret is the losses are all small = exit as soon as proved wrong.

That's my objective.

My premise remains the same - major continuation of downtrend can start anytime - my timing thus far is not correct. If my premise turns out to be wrong, then I'm pissing in the wind.

Back to work.