Caution! Nasdaq, Dow, Sp, Nikkei, Hang Seng

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: If it slingshots, isn't it too late to then triple your investment at the current low level? Why not triple now? Can you triple fast enough to get a low 36 purchase price?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  If it slingshots, isn't it too late to then triple your investment at the current low level? Why not triple now?  Can you triple fast enough to get a low 36 purchase price?

Yes, very much so and this is usually the case and I am always in early because of this factor.

Now however, we have a very different situation -- both Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) have closed below the 200-day and are having great difficulty getting above it -- and staying above it. Nas 100 has made a new low yesterday. That is not good. The semiconductor Index (SOX) is also very sluggish.

The 200-day effect has not been lost entirely IMHO -- but it is considerably different from the last rebound of the Q's on January 24th. At that time the Q's just barely touched the 200 and then flew off northwards -- that is the ideal situation and a bet placed then is generally highly successful.

This time however, on March 16 we got there again but just plunged thru' and had a tough time getting back above.

So here's what I'm thinking: the powerful support structure @ 34.5-36 is a tremendous DEMAND line where buyers are bound to step in. I believe that the weakened, but not dead 200-day will combine with this support structure to perform the slingshot!

And in there somewhere there might be a momentum signal which I am planning to catch before the lift-off -- but there are no guarantees that I'll get it right at the abs or close to the abs bottom.

I will catch it for sure on the trendline break about 60 cents/share above the support -- that ain't too bad, but the first 60 cents will occur in under 2 seconds of market opening when the rally emerges and I thoroughly detest missing such boons.

Keep in mind that Mr. Jones & S&P500 are still above their respective 200-day avs.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  If it slingshots, isn't it too late to then triple your investment at the current low level? Why not triple now?  Can you triple fast enough to get a low 36 purchase price?

PTE,

Is your average still up there in the high 30's, low 40's (??)?

Have you done any buying or selling since we last talked?

I have the feeling that you read my averaging notes and are possibly contemplating making a purchase in the 36-37 range to lower your average entry and thereby see green earlier -- am I reading you right?

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: I only wish it was that way. My first purchase after my discredited former timing service sent a buy signal was one third of my stake at 37.5. You recall I felt there was a bottom at 33.5 and had bought a third then. Sold it based on the timing cubes sell signal.

When they were talking about the Santa Rally in late December, I bought the other two thirds of my stake at 40.5 so my average cost is 39.5.

If I had followed my own discipline and payed attention to the long rally upward and the proximity to the historical high, I would have not bought above 40 but sold short.

Unless I go on margin, I am tapped out on the ability to buy more as the market approaches the perceived support level you mention. I heartily agree with your thinking and would do if it wasn't on margin.

I really got hurt in 2002 as I was fully marginilized and the margin calls really hurt. Granted, many of the margin calls were at a much higher level than the stock eventually reached on the low end, but I ended up with a portfolio one quarter its former size.

I really am risk adverse now and I would be exposing my total stake if there was a catastrophic event that forced the market below the support level and the margin calls did it to me again.

As I mentioned before, the only comfort I get now is that until I sell, I have lost nothing except the crappy amount of interest I might have made in a savings account. As the interest rates rise, I will not feel so comfortable in waiting.

If the market gets above 38, I will really be antsy to sell and go short so that will be crunch time for me. I surely will be begging for advice at that stage.

Long term, the first quarter semi-conducter news was sales were at an all time high. I would expect that semi-conducter stocks would reflect this and move higher raising the whole index. Am I wrong. Has that al ready been factored in. With most news, its affect on market performace is speculative in my view. It seems to me that after the market has moved, that is when the analysists choose the news that fits the move.

Any help you can suggest is remedying what was clearly an emotional buy based on ill placed trust in Timing Cube's signal would be appreciated.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  I only wish it was that way.  My first purchase after my discredited former timing service sent a buy signal was one third of my stake at 37.5.  You recall I felt there was a bottom at 33.5 and had bought a third then.  Sold it based on the timing cubes sell signal.

When they were talking about the Santa Rally in late December, I bought the other two thirds of my stake at 40.5 so my average cost is 39.5.

If I had followed my own discipline and payed attention to the long rally upward and the proximity to the historical high, I would have not bought above 40 but sold short.

Unless I go on margin, I am tapped out on the ability to buy more as the market approaches the perceived support level you mention.  I heartily agree with your thinking and would do if it wasn't on margin.

I really got hurt in 2002 as I was fully marginilized and the margin calls really hurt.  Granted, many of the margin calls were at a much higher level than the stock eventually reached on the low end, but I ended up with a portfolio one quarter its former size.

I really am risk adverse now and I would be exposing my total stake if there was a catastrophic event that forced the market below the support level and the margin calls did it to me again.

As I mentioned before, the only comfort I get now is that until I sell, I have lost nothing except the crappy amount of interest I might have made in a savings account.  As the interest rates rise, I will not feel so comfortable in waiting.

If the market gets above 38, I will really be antsy to sell and go short so that will be crunch time for me.  I surely will be begging for advice at that stage.

Long term, the first quarter semi-conducter news was sales were at an all time high.  I would expect that semi-conducter stocks would reflect this and move higher raising the whole index.  Am I wrong.  Has that al ready been factored in.  With most news, its affect on market performace is speculative in my view.  It seems to me that after the market has moved, that is when the analysists choose the news that fits the move.

Any help you can suggest is remedying what was clearly an emotional buy based on ill placed trust in Timing Cube's signal would be appreciated.

PTE,

Thanks for the straight talk -- I've always admired that about you and if I had just one wish at the moment it would be for you to at least break even.

There is alot of bad news out there. Analysts (ALL) are clamouring for a market crash --last night (LOS time), Bloomberg guests were blatantly bearish and negative. I had to turn the TV to another channel just to stay sane and not do anything foolish.

Looking briefly at the market's closing numbers today, it is not good at all.

I have a very imp. errand to run this morning, but I promise I will look at my setup and post my thoughts sometime later this afternoon, well before the market opens stateside.

Hang in there, my friend -- I'm in there too, remember? I'm still LONG and did not make any changes even with the market severely down by the time I went to bed.

Regards

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  I only wish it was that way.  My first purchase after my discredited former timing service sent a buy signal was one third of my stake at 37.5.  You recall I felt there was a bottom at 33.5 and had bought a third then.  Sold it based on the timing cubes sell signal.

When they were talking about the Santa Rally in late December, I bought the other two thirds of my stake at 40.5 so my average cost is 39.5.

If I had followed my own discipline and payed attention to the long rally upward and the proximity to the historical high, I would have not bought above 40 but sold short.

Unless I go on margin, I am tapped out on the ability to buy more as the market approaches the perceived support level you mention.  I heartily agree with your thinking and would do if it wasn't on margin.

I really got hurt in 2002 as I was fully marginilized and the margin calls really hurt.  Granted, many of the margin calls were at a much higher level than the stock eventually reached on the low end, but I ended up with a portfolio one quarter its former size.

I really am risk adverse now and I would be exposing my total stake if there was a catastrophic event that forced the market below the support level and the margin calls did it to me again.

As I mentioned before, the only comfort I get now is that until I sell, I have lost nothing except the crappy amount of interest I might have made in a savings account.  As the interest rates rise, I will not feel so comfortable in waiting.

If the market gets above 38, I will really be antsy to sell and go short so that will be crunch time for me.  I surely will be begging for advice at that stage.

Long term, the first quarter semi-conducter news was sales were at an all time high.  I would expect that semi-conducter stocks would reflect this and move higher raising the whole index.  Am I wrong.  Has that al ready been factored in.  With most news, its affect on market performace is speculative in my view.  It seems to me that after the market has moved, that is when the analysists choose the news that fits the move.

Any help you can suggest is remedying what was clearly an emotional buy based on ill placed trust in Timing Cube's signal would be appreciated.

OK PTE, I've put in a good hour or so and if I think any harder my skull will crack -- so I'll give you the gist and then in a separate post, I'll state some key numbers.

I am staying put -- i.e. staying LONG -- not changing a single thing!

[Harmonica]

Holding my position for a rally unless some of the key supports below are taken out to the downside -- my current net +ve position, despite yesterday's QQQQ additional loss, gives me some room to play (or get played!) but I am willing to give up all gain on this play before closing out my position. It is definitely worth the effort and risk.

Quadrupling will only occur if I'm awake intraday on favorable reversal; otherwise it will have to wait till end-of-day results are in.

Dow Jones closed yesterday below the 200-day, but S&P500 still remains above.

Odds are high that the springboard might now be the S&P500's 200-day. We'll see.

Nasdaq Futures are down so it appears that we will again open lower and possibly witness some more blood in the streets.

Keep these support numbers in mind: Words in brackets are adjectives describing said support structures.

Nasdaq Composite: 1945 (big) -- 1930 (big) -- 1900 (huge)

QQQQ: $ 35.50 & $35.00

SOXX: 395 (monster)

Dow Jones: 10,335-10,350 (huge)

S&P500: 1160 (strong) -- 1142 (very strong) -- 1153 (200-day)

Nasdaq versus S&P500 is currently smack at huge historical support.

I hold for the rally!

Hope this helps.

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: Your instincts have been so "right on" since you have been posting that I have full confidence in what you say.

What happened to your Oil play if you don't mnd me asking. My guess on what I remember posting was that you may have made a few points if you sold after the recent dip. Are you staying in for a longer hall short, perhaps the mid 40's?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  Your instincts have been so "right on" since you have been posting that I have full confidence in what you say.

What happened to your Oil play if you don't mnd me asking.  My guess on what I remember posting was that you may have made a few points if you sold after the recent dip.  Are you staying in for a longer hall short, perhaps the mid 40's?

PTE: No, I don't have any position at the moment in Crude Oil -- the thought sequence & analysis are laid out pretty clearly in the "Crude Oil" thread. Check it out -- there are graphs too that clearly show support and resistance.

I was a ble to capture a substantial gain going SHORT but the market closed my short position on a slight rebound -- as we were nearing support I did not get back in.

As it turns out now, the market continued to go down -- but it has done so without me. There is a very big support in the neighborhood and that is NOW my main reason for not re-entering another SHORT position. It is also possible that Crude will go for yet another TOP.

So I have taken my gain and retreated to my bear before some stupid error causes me to lose it all.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  Your instincts have been so "right on" since you have been posting that I have full confidence in what you say.

What happened to your Oil play if you don't mnd me asking.  My guess on what I remember posting was that you may have made a few points if you sold after the recent dip.  Are you staying in for a longer hall short, perhaps the mid 40's?

PTE: thanks for the kind words.

Before we get to my current position in the QQQQ after yesterday's bloodbath, I should point out something to you about giving too much credence to anybody's market analysis.

Don't know if you've heard of Robert Prechter and Charles Bassetti?

Well, these 2 gentlemen are the finest of the top-notch technical market players in the entire world -- Prechter won US trading championships many years in a row at some point in the past and is the owner/creator of Elliottwave International, based in Atlanta, Georgia.

He and his team of 50+ highly paid and very sophisticated technical analysts have been on the wrong side of the Nasdaq/Dow since October 2002 -- and I mean, so almost consistently wrong that they could even become a "contrary indicator" -- despite this I read every word he writes (almost anyways) and have great respect for the man. He has written several books on Tech. and must be going thru' a phase of "terrible" market calls. What else could explain such a lacklustre performance?

Back in 2002, I lost lots of sleep when I made the decision to enter the market LONG -- doing exactly the opposite of his call. Turned out I was right but the fact that I had given so much credence to his insight actually was crippling my ability to DECIDE for myself.

After that I've become vehemently a loner when it comes to market analysis and decisions. I read what others have to say, but then when I do my review I leave all that behind and do my own analysis and keep my own counsel.

Charles Basetti is, in my opinion the #1 tech. man worldwide --he has a pretty good batting average, but for several months now has been thoroughly flummoxed. Since January he just can't seem to make up his mind whether to go LONG or SHORT!

Can you see what I'm getting at?

The Timing Cube methodology must have had its good points and then it must have also failed on several occasions.

The market humbles us all and when it does so, it shows no mercy!

When I'm wrong my STOPLOSS methodology has shielded me time and again from total destruction and annihilation.

My apology for the long post.

[Harmonica]

We remain LONG but .......

in the midst of all the excitement (or boredom, depending on how one looks at the current juncture), may I remind anybody reading this and participating in the market about a highly recommended Insurance Policy.

Refer to Dow Jones chart below:

Extreme danger if the following occurs:

January 24th closing low of 10,368.61 is violated on a closing basis.

The weekly support @ 10,350 is violated on a closing basis.

The 200-day moving average is violated on a closing basis.

If all 3 conditions are met, I will swallow my pride and close all LONGS.

Regards  

Current LONG positions show:

QQQQ ...... net loss 26 cents per share

2 individual stocks +ve gain of $1.95 & $ 2.46 per share respectively.

But the QQQQ position is larger so Net profit is at $ 1.01 per share.

No change. Position remains open & LONG!

There is considerable support @ 34.6-36 -- if/when the 200-day + support combo slingshots, I will triple my QQQQ position thus lowering my average entry down to very close to the current shelf of support.

That is the updated plan!

Dow Jones and S&P500 remain above the 200-day! That is my "Ace in the hole" --should that change, I'll have to retreat to my fully stocked bear cave in a hurry! But not till then. Current position rides market money at the moment!

Hehehehe

------- ------------------------ ---------

All 3 open LONG positions are now closed -- a measly +21 cents per share overall profit for the combo of 2 stocks and QQQQ were my winnings.

Notes:

All the conditions above (in quotes) were satisfied by yesterday's market action, which, judging by the volume, was a bloodbath!

The final straw was when even the S&P500 hammered it's own 200-day & looked like it would close below it. In the first 2 hours of trading, most of the supports I mentioned were looking shaky.

So, what now?

Lower stress level, that's for sure!

Nasdaq is almost at another huge support @ 1,900 and the QQQQ is just into a new support structure @ 34.85-34.00.

There could still be a rebound , but I have given up my option to avail myself of the "slingshot" effect.

I need some sleep!

Bye

[Harmonica]

I'm going in today LONG.

I think this is just a 1, 2 or at best a few days rally.

I'm suspicious, so tight, tight STOPLOSS used. The rally might even fizzle out in the afternoon (eastern time).

Risk level is high.

Position will be light.

Will review on Monday if not booted out by my stop firing.

[Harmonica]

I'm going in today LONG.

I think this is just a 1, 2 or at best a few days rally.

I'm suspicious, so tight, tight STOPLOSS used.  The rally might even fizzle out in the afternoon (eastern time).

Risk level is high.

Position will be light. 

Will review on Monday if not booted out by my stop firing.

I got booted out already -- I'm not going back in! STOP triggered.

[Harmonica]

This is as good a time as any to wish everybody best of luck -- I'm getting ready to do a trip and will be busy for the next several months.

Today is my last day here!

Adios!

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: My current dilemma was caused not only on my relying on a timing cubes buy signal but a misunderstood stop loss strategy.

If the market never passes through your stop pass price, no sale occurs. Thus if the market opens below your stop loss price no sale, correct?

Thats what happened to me. So aren't you better off just puttting a sell order in at a fixed price so the sell is executed regardless of the opening price of the market below your target "out price".

My terminoloby is not correct for the sell when the price goes below my target out price vs. stop loss. Help!!!

[Harmonica]

Harmonica:  My current dilemma was caused not only on my relying on a timing cubes buy signal but a misunderstood stop loss strategy.

If the market never passes through your stop pass price, no sale occurs.  Thus if the market opens below your stop loss price  no sale, correct?

Thats what happened to me.  So aren't you better off just puttting a sell order in at a fixed price so the sell is executed regardless of the opening price of the market below your target "out price". 

My terminoloby is not correct for the sell when the price goes below my target out price vs. stop loss.  Help!!!

OK PTE, first this post and then I'll try to give you some guidelines referring to your PM.

Glad you've isolated your stoploss strategy as a possible trap. Use a firm level for your STOP. I don't know what Schwab uses, but in their HELP file online there should be a clarification. The concept you want to encompass is "if the market crosses this number, then get me out pronto, no ifs ands or buts!?

The STOP is your friend and insurance policy. Base it on clear, prior analysis and NEVER change it except to TRAIL it to shield (= protect) gains either LONG or SHORT!

Dyin ain't much of a livin!

OK?

[Harmonica]

For ProThaiExpat:

QQQQ:

Caveat:

Remember what happened when you listened to the Timing Cube guys?

What guarantee is there that I might not be just as bad as they are?

Lesson:

Keep your own counsel and be your own advisor -- well worth attaining this lofty plateau. When right, enjoy and bask in your glory; when wrong, no sense in crying, blaming or complaining; lick thine own wounds and prepare for the next battle!

OK then, on to business.

[Harmonica]

My take for this current BEAR-MARKET rally:

The BEAR market that started in January 2000 has resumed. The Bear came out of hibernation on December 3rd, 2004 (for the QQQQ) & for the S&P500 on March 7, 2005.

We have a long road down, down, down ahead of us.

When this rally ends we are going down HARD!

That is the main message!

---------

But let us not be discouraged by this somber news. We have a rally now and there will be others down the road apiece and they should be exploited.

Refer to the chart of QQQQ below and in your Schwab real-time setup draw the trendlines as shown on a daily chart. You may use an hourly or 120-min chart also. Pay attention to the trendlines (yellow) & the 200-day moving average (green). Going below the 200-day and the breaching of trendlines shown should be taken very seriously. Therein lies your final, definitive STOP.

QQQQ closed above the 200-day yesterday. That is a big accomplishment. This fact alone causes me to take a good deal of profit today at the open. Not all, just a good piece. Why? Again, referring to the chart, see the Fibonacci retracement levels I've drawn (shown as dotted horizontal lines)? QQQQ touched the 50% retracement level yesterday. This level is where the majority of retracements end.

For the ones that don't end @ the 50% mark, they could go on to the 61.8% mark which is @ $38.

QQQQ could go there, but there are no guarantees.

Finally it could also get upto the 78.6% level (@ $39), but that is only a 5% probability -- but it is a possibility.

Taking partial profits is usually a smart way to go.

I am almost sure (can one ever be 100% sure in the markets?) that this is the last time we will be approaching your entry level of $39.5 for the next 100 years . I do not know whether we will reach it or exceed it, however -- that is the reason for partial profits each step of the way up.

Keep a cool head, and make your own, rational, decisions. The above is my opinion and remember, "opinions are like <deleted>, everyone has one!"

[ProThaiExpat]

What a great post. Thank you Harmonica for this very valuable insight.

I feel comfortable with my indicated strategy and your re-inforcement makes the decision very solid.

Clearly, this week's rally may level off as the volume yesterday was below the average. If it does, I just wait until it threatens the 38 qqqq price before I get started in my exit strategy.

If it levels off for a week and then approaches 38, my guess that argues for a high up side before the turn around and maybe 39 is approachable on a one day basis.

My heatfelt appreciation for you imput. Thank you again.

[Harmonica]

QQQQ:

Balance of position closed out @ average $37.88 .

No QQQQ shares left.

Gain banked! Over & out!

[ProThaiExpat]

So sweet it is Harmonica.

I am hoping for a above 38 on the QQQQ in the next session so I am faced with the tough decision of whether I should take my loss or hang on by the fingernails. If oil goes down, there may be a few less bucks to lose before I bail.

As an aside, Harmonica, "over an out" is bad radio procedure, "Out" is all that is callled for when signing off, as if you say over, then it is the others turn to respond, so to say "over" and then "out" is in effect saying "what is your answer, I don't want to hear it". You may know all this, but you know we pesky students and our atitude toward teacher.

Of course, if you meant no replies wanted, then so be it.

[Harmonica]

So sweet it is Harmonica.

I am hoping for a above 38 on the QQQQ in the next session so I am faced with the tough decision of whether I should take my loss or hang on by the fingernails.  If oil goes down, there may be a few less bucks to lose before I bail.

As an aside, Harmonica, "over an out" is bad radio procedure, "Out" is all that is callled for when signing off, as if you say over, then it is the others turn to respond, so to say "over" and then "out" is in effect saying "what is your answer, I don't want to hear it".  You may know all this, but you know we pesky students and our atitude toward teacher. 

Of course, if you meant no replies wanted, then so be it.

Of course you are absolutely correct, PTE. I should have been more careful with such usage -- literally then, "over & out" stems from ......

"Trained radio operators grind their teeth on hearing 'over and out.' In proper usage, 'over' means 'I've finished speaking for the moment and await your reply.' 'Out' is used to terminate a conversation."

All I meant to say was, "moolah banked, stress released, beer in hand and settle down to watch a movie -- then sleep soundly!" ..... + a resounding hehehehehe

See QQQQ notes in next post.

[Harmonica]

So sweet it is Harmonica.

I am hoping for a above 38 on the QQQQ in the next session so I am faced with the tough decision of whether I should take my loss or hang on by the fingernails.  If oil goes down, there may be a few less bucks to lose before I bail.

Remember the chart I posted a few days ago? Below is the updated version.

Yesterday's action hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level dead center -- @ 38.

Here then is my current take: (caveat ... OK?)

We are in an A-B-C rally -- this means wave A up, then wave B down and finally wave C up to finish and complete the rally sequence.

Thus far we have either completed or are very close to completing wave A. If so, then wave B down should follow.

Where will wave B end? .... $35 -- $36.8?

How high will wave C then go? Let's wait for wave B to complete, then we'll revisit the issue.

The above is my interpretation of what the market is doing. If it is actually doing something else, then I am glad that I am out!

Remember that not a single momentum indicator has slowed down much during this rally! Keep this in mind while you are battling with your innermost demons.

Cannot post or watch the market until Monday -- driving to Phuket early tomorrow morning.

Goodluck!

[Harmonica]

Shortsellers candy    -- for the intrepid, don't ignore General Motors -- confirmed downtrend and dangerous to play LONG -- but there are terrific odds that if the stateside rally starts in the next several days, GM will shoot up to and past her 20-day Moving Average -- for a quick, sweet $3-6 supercharged  blast ...

but its a very dangerous play; I'm mentioning it because it keeps me on my toes and I just love its cataclysmic drops into the dark side.

A technician's paradise of study -- is our beautiful GM.

The relentless audit continues.

This call was made on March 24th and less than 1 month later, on April 19th General Motors woke up and charged northwards.

This is a $13 charge or 50% gain in 2 months thus far for the intrepid player.

[Harmonica]

GE another dog of a stock... Of course day / short trades have possibility but the company has a market cap of approx 15 billion.. and it owes 300 billion..

ha ha ha Let me say that again.. It owes 20 times its entire market cap !!! And people buy it !!!

My nemesis & harpoonist, the mighty LivinLOS, a Patong resident, continues to score 100% with his thrusts into the darkside. A very consistent fella; I might have to dispense with the Macd indicator and plug him in instead as a reliable contra-indicator.

Don't know if he needs me, but I soy-tenly need his input, especially on down days.

[Harmonica]

Does anybody know where His Excellency, Mr. PTE is currently vacationing?

With his gargantuan profits, or should I say, reduction of losses, one could at least expect a cold beer from him?

Or has he gone and done the unthinkable and purchased a Porsche in CM?

[Harmonica]

Combine your QQQQ analysis with the support/R study of the Nasdaq composite -- The Qs are 100 top Nas companies -- the composite is the whole shabang; far more reliable for estimating -- therefore use both.  Use the numbers I gave you on the Qs, then correlate the following.

Nasdaq composite major support band from  2,030 - 1,930 = 100 point spread where the fall could be arrested -- the core level of this support structure is @ 1932. This core level is like a concrete floor -- to break it is possible, of course and if so, that means big trouble for the prior uptrend.

200-day MA @ 1976 currently.

The odds that Nasdaq will deliver a rally starting somewhere between 2,030 and 1930 are 90%+

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally between now (2034) & 1976 are 30%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1976 are 50%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1950-1976 are 75%.  The 200-day is well known to slingshot a market after being penetrated by a reasonable amount -- call it elasticity or whatever, but from market to market and stock to stock this is readily noticeable.

I know that tomorrow is a big day for you.  Best of luck!  

What a load of horses##t.

If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica.

For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them???

Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued.To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa.

In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money.

Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money.

As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS.Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!!

Very unfortunate that I'm not a homo -- I'd be having a field day with cats such as these!

[Harmonica]

I expect a 20% gain on PXD this year. Do your own research.

Khun ?,

PXD could go to $40-41 or thereabouts; regardless, wherever it ends up, that will be the high for the DECADE!-- crash and burn thereafter! Will go belly-up in the next 2 years or so. Take profit now or SOON -- that's my advice -- no need for recrimination etc. -- its only advice, that's all --take the input in the spirit it is given, OK?

Khun ?, are you listening now, dummy?

I said it could go to 41 -- it went to 44.96 -- is that close or what? I told you to take profit, but all you did was worship that Harvard guru you call an advisor -- back in my Grad school days we used to consistently take out Harvard Grads and humiliate them!

Ask him to contact me!

Then look what happened -- PXD crashed and burned to 36 , quite possibly below your entry point. If you survived the heart attack during its decline you will surely perish during the next waterfall cataclysmic drop (coming within now to a few weeks)

Final advice -- take profit now!

[Harmonica]

Ha,ha,ha

You need to go to a casino and play the colors black or red. Thats the only thing you are doing playing the Q's. Your a trader not an informed investor. I met very few traders that ever made a profit.  Here is the site again of guy that worked the on the stock exchange for over 20 years and is a harvard grad. He plays the options professionaly. You can pick a few of his programs and depending how risky you want to be he will trade for you as he trades.

http://www.terrystips.com/stock_leaps.shtml

PXD is up about 20% this month for a good reason.

I expect a 20% gain on PXD this year. Do your own research.

Khun ?,

PXD could go to $40-41 or thereabouts; regardless, wherever it ends up, that will be the high for the DECADE!-- crash and burn thereafter! Will go belly-up in the next 2 years or so. Take profit now or SOON -- that's my advice -- no need for recrimination etc. -- its only advice, that's all --take the input in the spirit it is given, OK?

Read your post above!

You open the door with a harsh and demeaning tone and you'll get the same from me! Got it?

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonica: I remain a deciple. Fundamentalists (hereinafter "fundies") whether they be of the religious stripe or the stock market stripe display the same "attitutde" toward others. They alone are right and if you don't "believe" in their way, you will go straight to hades. (crash and burn).

One cannot discuss rationally a subject with someone who is irrational by definition, ie a fundie.

I am still following my "plan" which you were so kind to start me on, but in a sidewise market, recovery is a bitch when my benchmark is so high.

Your last posted chart seemed so "right on", I am awaiting your advice regarding the start of stage C.

My latest take on the market is that I may have a chance to sell my QQQQ at 39.5 and not suffer a loss up to and including year end, with a sigh of relief. Then it is short time in spades.

I am reminded of your oil play of some months back. Such a dangerous area with all the speculation and politics involved. I am surprised at the market strength in spite of the oil price surge.

I suspect the market is the market and those who point to "inidicies" or "reasons" for any market move are just linking indicies to market moves without any underlying rationale.

"No upward movement in the market while oil prices continue to rise" "Upward pressure on oil prices drive the market lower". etc. so much crap!!

I have been able to distance myself somethat, not enough, by the daily news of market performance. Whenever I get depressed on the markets downward day, I remind myself that I have a year to sell and break even or even make a tad. With a 3% return on savings accounts, losing that amount by not being so invested is very tolerable.

Please keep up your very informative and valuable, to me a least, posts and charts. The GM play was a choice of mine, however, being fully invested, I was not in the mood to go on margin to buy GM.

Over the past 30 years, I have reached a conclusion that any company that has worldwide scope and substantial "bricks and mortar" on their balance sheet, usually recovers to some degree.

Chrysler, Bank of America and GM are in that category in my view. MSFT at 20, GE at 30, Boing at 35 etc. are all no brainers to me. This is a basic fundamental play in my view, but my world view is broad enough to acknowledge some good in most things.