Maka Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Based on what it can steal.. Tourism is stealing ?? I am not comparing the US to Thailand or any other but every debt has to be repaid or defaulted.. simple.. As to based on homes and goods, the housing bubble will burst the same as the tech bubble did, it only exists because E_Z Al has pumped the market with E_Z credit and everyone and thier uncle have refianced and bought more than they can afford.. When interest rates rise the pain will start to be felt.. As for goods, I really cant remember the last time I saw a 'Made in the USA' label.. What does get exported from the US these days ?? I for one am very thankful I dont have to live in the states.. Nice for a visit, travelled all over it, but I would have a hard time living there.. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> "What does get exported from the US these days ?? " Food. Lots and lots of food, mostly grains. Not at a profit per say, but the USA still "feeds the world". This is a little known or touted fact, but an extreemly important one. Ever consider what would happen if the US adopted a total isolationinst policy? Things would not be prety in the US, but the rest of the world would go into free fall back to the Bronze age, Stone age for 3rd world countries. If you doubt this, I invite you to go to Kabul for 3 days. If you come back alive and still think my logic is faulty you can explain to me then why I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~G~ Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 (edited) Which is worse, a racing in debt economy or one that runs on how much it can steal. USofA has problems but at least our economy is based on a solid foundation of homes and goods and not on something as ethereal as tourists and how many can the country clip when they come to visit. face it the US is the biggest bully on the street, if you don't like that get off the street! Everybody loves to hate the US but everybody wants to go there including all you Thais out there. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thailand is the biggest exporter in the world of Rice and Pineapple and top exporter of Chicken, Shrimp, Rubber and many other agriculture goods. Its not all tourism as you depict it. And there's nothing wrong with earning from tourism as well. Everybody wants to go there? Let me just not comment on that. Edit - removed elaborated explanation of why not to go to the US. Edited March 30, 2005 by ~G~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 But we digress from the topic. Whats the Bhat up to? 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3553 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3609 THB Solid in the 39.0 sector. Still moving to 40+ aparently. Whats this now? Day 14 in a row, of Every day closing higher? Harmonicas predictions seem to be comming true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~G~ Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Ever consider what would happen if the US adopted a total isolationinst policy? Isolationinist policy? American consumers cannot even consider consuming less - something they badly need to do (ask Greenspan to explain why) - not to mention being isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaiaan Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Based on what it can steal.. Tourism is stealing ?? I am not comparing the US to Thailand or any other but every debt has to be repaid or defaulted.. simple.. As to based on homes and goods, the housing bubble will burst the same as the tech bubble did, it only exists because E_Z Al has pumped the market with E_Z credit and everyone and thier uncle have refianced and bought more than they can afford.. When interest rates rise the pain will start to be felt.. As for goods, I really cant remember the last time I saw a 'Made in the USA' label.. What does get exported from the US these days ?? I for one am very thankful I dont have to live in the states.. Nice for a visit, travelled all over it, but I would have a hard time living there.. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> "What does get exported from the US these days ?? " Food. Lots and lots of food, mostly grains. Not at a profit per say, but the USA still "feeds the world". This is a little known or touted fact, but an extreemly important one. Ever consider what would happen if the US adopted a total isolationinst policy? Things would not be prety in the US, but the rest of the world would go into free fall back to the Bronze age, Stone age for 3rd world countries. If you doubt this, I invite you to go to Kabul for 3 days. If you come back alive and still think my logic is faulty you can explain to me then why I am wrong. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> The world would still have their Benzes and BMWs and Toshiba laptops and Samsung LCD screens and Nokia cellphones. The world wouldn't miss the Mcnuggets and Charlies Angels movies and MTV videos America exports. And Ford Tauruses and GM Suburbans are only sold to Americans in America and even they are losing market share to Honda and Toyota there. 80% of the US economy is a service economy with a society where the average high school graduate has the equivalent of a 6th grade education in Japan or Korea and whose students rank last in math and science and can't name their first president or find the Pacific Ocean on a map. At least America's future sure know their Britney Spears videos even if they think Canada is a US state and Friedrich Nietszche is a sitcom star. And when it comes to shooting up their schools American students sure are good at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 ALL my views expressed here are my own and are based entirely on SUPPLY/DEMAND and the Psychology of buyers/sellers as evident on a price chart. Now here is a statement I can wholeheartedly agree with.. So lets look at those for a second.. Demand.. Demand for the USD is based on the GDP of the USA, peoples global demand for the US's goods and services are what defined the 'demand' for its currency, this is what took America to being the worlds reserve currency, not only its large geographic base (high mineral / oil / etc) but also the fact that Americans were hard working, high saving, net exporters.. Thier 'Made in America was a hallmark mark of quality, made in Japan or even worse made in China signified inferior goods.. This clearly has changed.. So, many say America has rebranded itself as a service economy, I am not sure I believe it, as it seems to me any 'service' to increase the stock of America Inc needs to sell itself to foriegners, Simply selling each other starbucks for big macs does not make America richer it simply passes money within the local economy. Also any serice that can be exported instead of being exported from the USA (ie American service sector workers) is being imported by the USA (eg Indian programmers) this outsourcing of labour again shows no 'demand' in the USD much mroe a case of the opposite US demand for more foriegn goods and services.. This massive net outflow (in trade deficit spending) merely gluts the rest of the world in dollar instruments... When the trade deficit is turned around and heading for negative territory, then and only then can dollar demand be said to be increasing.. So then Supply.. Short supply of USD ?? Ever since E-Z Al took the reigns at the Fed money has being pumped into the system.. Current estimates on early numbers this year give rise to predictions that the fed may increase USD money supply by over 1 trillion this year !! numbers I recently read show 4.5 million being printed per day !!! This money passed out in the form of governement deficit spending and increased debt levels of the US citizen can have only a limited set of outcomes.. Increased supply leads directly to lower dollar value (on the global market) and / or increased inflation (within the US economy) in reality both these effects are likely.. You either lose 'value' through real value lost in purchasing other fiat currencies or you lose value in purchasing power of real items and commodities.. Giving central governments the ability to print money does not create wealth, in fact it does the opposite it destroys the value of the currency as a store of assets and discourages saving... >>>>>> Demand.. Demand for the USD is based on the GDP of the USA <<<<<< Wrong, wrong, wrong! Were you the fella who got grace marks in school exams and still failed? If the very first line in your response is wrong -- coupled with and underscored by the fact that DEMAND comprises 50% of the equation, I am going to propose a remedy for your perennial incontinence! I will gladly pay for your attendance at Tony Robbins' next seminar in Hawai! "Insanity is ... doing the same things that you've already always been doing .... yet, this time you're expecting a different result!" Today, I am going to make an even bolder statement! The majestic US$ Index, after suffering an ignominious defeat & prolonged humiliation at the hands of even lowly, janitor-type currencies, BOTTOMED on December 30th, 2004! BOTTOMED on December 30th, 2004! The CLOSING low of 80.59 registered by the USD Index on December 29 .... will HOLD firm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 But we digress from the topic.Whats the Bhat up to? 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3553 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3609 THB Solid in the 39.0 sector. Still moving to 40+ aparently. Whats this now? Day 14 in a row, of Every day closing higher? Harmonicas predictions seem to be comming true. 14 days in a row -- want to know the other time such a feat was accomplished? June-July 1997 . Ouch! I hope my visa is not in jeopardy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbaker8688 Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 (edited) This happens to be my field of expertise. My good friend Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under Ronald Reagan, has multiple Ph.D.s in various disciplines such as economics, has written many books, currently writes in newspapers ranging from the Wall Street Journal to the Washington Times, and is a member of several think tanks. I help him do research on economic matters and can offer my own perpsective, as well as his. <<Designs for Intel Pentium chips,>> Designs for chips perhaps, but the manufacturing has moved offshore. << Cisco Routers>> Read the papers. Cisco is becoming a chinese company. I mean literally. They aren't just moving their manufacturing there - their goal is to literally *be* chinese. They're working on the process now. <<and support/updates for Microsoft and MacIntosh software.>> Microsoft is in the process of moving all software engineering and programming jobs to India. What remains of this work in the U.S. will be done by H1-B's imported from India and perhaps China. I can't comment on Mac, but it would be hard to believe that they wouldn't offshore, if they aren't already doing it. <<Heart pacemakers, stents, catheters from Medtronic, Guidant, and several others.>> That's nice and all. But I'd be surprised if these manufactures aren't in the process of being moved offshore, if they haven't moved already. <<Harley Davidson motorcycles.>> Not too long ago they were in the process of relocating their transmission manufacturing facilities overseas. You can expect the rest to follow suit at some point in the future. <<Cray Supercomputers.>> It will be hard to close our trade deficit or employ our people if the only manufacture we have left are Cray Supercomputers. They don't make them by the thousands. And they don't employ people by the thousands. <<The manufacturing might of America is almost too large to grasp. >> You're living in the past. America is a hollowed-out manufacturing paper tiger. There is no more manufacturing left in America, to speak of. <<There is no doubt that the low skill high volume mass production of items like toasters and cell phones have gone to places like china but in the end there is very little money in commodities operating in mature markets.>> There was plenty of money in it. That's why China took the manufactures without blinking an eye. The jobs were moved because of one thing and one thing only - cheap labor. We aren't talking about "free trade" like everyone likes to think (in fact - the whole idea is a myth). We are talking about labor arbitrage. We are systematically substituting expensive first world labor for cheap third world labor. Why? Because the corporations keep the prices the same, but lower costs of labor, and therefore increase profits. China and India benefit - they get millions upon million of good jobs. Corporate fat cats in America benefit - they get stock options and raises. America as a whole loses - especially American workers, and the American middle class. <<Manufacturing in america has just moved to electron microscopes and satellites, airplanes and pace makers. >> Again, you're living in the past. Whatever remains of what you just mentioned is being offshored as rapidly as it can possibly be offshored. China and India are now going "high-tech." By that I mean they are taking the American high-tech industry. <<Anyone who says that america doesnt manufacture doesnt have a clue about industrial output.>> America doesn't manufacture. And I think I have a clue. It's all I work on every day, 7 days a week. Looking at the latest BLS statistics. Reading the latest job reports. Preparing talking points or rough drafts for articles. Etc. << I would agree that they are losing low skilled manufacturing but its just a stage of growth and development. >> Again, you are living in the past. You're reciting old propaganda. First we were told that "low skilled manufacturing" was moving offshore, but not to worry - technology jobs would follow. Then, technology jobs were offshored more quickly than "low skilled manufacturing." Then we were told that we were going to become a "service economy." Well, just the other day, the Chinese economic minister published a paper - I have it sitting right here. He says that China has now sucked about as many manufacturing and technology jobs out of the U.S. as it can possibly suck - and now they need to start moving towards capturing our service industry. By the way, I used to be a "high skilled" computer engineer. My job was outsourced several years ago. Bottom line is - anything in America that can possibly be outsourced or offshored *WILL* be outsourced or offshored. Period. The only jobs that will be left will be in nontradable services (Wal-mart cashiers, burger flippers, pizza delivery boys, lawyers, etc). The American economy has taken on a third world complexion. Our biggest export is now empty shipping containers to China, which come back full of merchandise. Meanwhile, "third world" countries like China have economies which have taken on a first world complexion. What has happend is unprecedented. Under the guise of "free trade," we have moved the entire manufacturing base for our own home economy overseas, and also moved the incomes associated with those jobs overseas. Again, this is unprecedented in world history. There is no such thing as a free lunch. The piper will be paid. <<Japan and Germany are having the exact same problem, the bad news is their governments work to prop up their failing industries to keep their people working instead of moving with market. >> Japan is a different story. I just met with an expert from Japan on this issue the other day. He wrote the book "Blindsided," which deals with what the Japs have done to America regarding trade, and how they did it. He tells me that Japan does not outsource jobs and move manufacturing overseas the way America does. Their corporate and governmental policy is full, 100% employment. No net jobs are ever moved. If one is moved, it has to be replaced with one of equal pay, caliber, etc. Basically, they will only move manufacturing that is intended for another country, which saves on shipping costs and what not. And they will only move those jobs if there are already replacement jobs ready to be done. They never move manufacturing intended for their home market. Japan has not suffered the massive loss in jobs, incomes, and upward mobility for their middle class. When their kids graduate from college, they have good jobs waiting. Our kids don't. <<Having worked all over the world, I can tell you that no other country comes even close to the size and strength of the American industrial base. >> Again, you're out of touch. You're living in the days of yester year. Wake up. Edited March 30, 2005 by sbaker8688 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbaker8688 Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 we kind of knew all along that China's ascension would cause some nervousness among the first world, in particular america the lone superpower. but no one really thought that america would be in such a vulnerable situation as they are now, just when it needs to assert its dominance. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> You should understand that China's "ascension" is a direct result of America lifting China into "ascension." In this way, America created it's own "vulnerable situation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Thai Baht is retreating this morning; this should cause a rally in the SET Index (Stock Exchange of Thailand) today . The key word here is "should" -- whether it follows my reasoning, remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Define "Retreating" We have seen Ms Bhat back up a little, over the last two weeks when she hits resistance, only to rush forward again with renewd montum. I sugest that this is happening here. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3334 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3375 THB The Bhat has not backed up past 39. So we are only talking a .4 or .5 back up. As has been sugested by others 40.0 is a stiff resistance area, that being the case it seems within character that she back up and take a few runs at it before getting by. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3417 THB Now it she had or does slip below 39. into the 38s, then I would consider considering a retreat. But based on the last two weeks activity, this is normal. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3405 THB Having said that, Im only listening to the music and watching Ms. Bhat closely. I dont have the music sheet infront of me so dont know the actual score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
autonomous_unit Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 A silly question: why do you guys say "retreating" when the baht is getting stronger relative to the dollar, and advancing when it is losing value? It sounds like someone shouting in celebration as their golf score increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 A silly question: why do you guys say "retreating" when the baht is getting stronger relative to the dollar, and advancing when it is losing value? It sounds like someone shouting in celebration as their golf score increases. There are no silly questions, Maestro. In a normal chart, let's say of a stock such as IBM, when the price on the chart heads north, it means IBM is getting stronger; when it moves south, it is getting weaker. So far so good. For the Baht, when it heads north it means it is getting weaker. Why? Because as it heads north, the numbers get bigger; that is, more Baht to one dollar, which by definition means "weaker". Conversely, when it heads south, it means it is getting stronger. If you want to become the Mayor -- go into your software's options and find the menu for "scaling" and then click "invert scale" -- then your chart will become "normal". I prefer the old-fashioned way. Dig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Define "Retreating"We have seen Ms Bhat back up a little, over the last two weeks when she hits resistance, only to rush forward again with renewd montum. I sugest that this is happening here. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3334 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3375 THB The Bhat has not backed up past 39. So we are only talking a .4 or .5 back up. As has been sugested by others 40.0 is a stiff resistance area, that being the case it seems within character that she back up and take a few runs at it before getting by. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3417 THB Now it she had or does slip below 39. into the 38s, then I would consider considering a retreat. But based on the last two weeks activity, this is normal. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3405 THB Having said that, Im only listening to the music and watching Ms. Bhat closely. I dont have the music sheet infront of me so dont know the actual score. ---- ------ ---- Indeed so Maka! Some very astute observations; and this from someone who is not a trader. You could be a natural, amigo. Let me attempt to elucidate: Refer to the graph below; the recent action is to the right of the chart. See the 15 green candlesticks rising from the lower right hand side? Each one represents the entire action for a single day. Notice that there has not been a single red candle -- this means that there has NOT been a single day of retreat. Baht has just charged upward. So all I meant with the term "retreating" is that Baht is "correcting" the entire 15 day advance OR correcting only a portion thereof. This is NORMAL behaviour of trends. Nothing to worry about. An uptrend must attack, retreat, regroup and recharge for further assault, then attack again etc., etc., -- this is the normal progression of trends. Baht is just doing things that are expected; what is sublime is the fact that she rose for 15 days without a single down day ! Observe the power of the rise -- shown by the 3 increasing slopes (angles of ascent) represented by the black, pink & blue lines. If the Baht closes convincingly below the blue line, then we do indeed have a retracement (correction). How far would it go? Take it a day at a time. As for the "40" resistance area -- it is worse than what anybody else here has mentioned; not only is the 40 area tough, it is further exacerbated by the towering presence of the 200-day moving average; a guaranteed SUPPLY line where George soros (from jail, perhaps) will buy Baht, sending it downwards (=strengthening)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Thai Baht is retreating this morning; this should cause a rally in the SET Index (Stock Exchange of Thailand) today . The key word here is "should" -- whether it follows my reasoning, remains to be seen. It appears that she did follow my reasoning -- SET opened with a 5+ point gap-up! Whether she can hold onto the gains; that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 OK Thanks for the explination and chart, most helpfull. Is todays closeing in there too? I cant really tell. If it is the "correction" is not apparent. But the chart shows how significant this last two weeks has been, I know it was good but had no idea how good. Thanks for the peek at todays music sheet, it helps me to know the score. BTW is harmonica music writen in base or trebble clef? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Define "Retreating"We have seen Ms Bhat back up a little, over the last two weeks when she hits resistance, only to rush forward again with renewd montum. I sugest that this is happening here. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3334 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3375 THB The Bhat has not backed up past 39. So we are only talking a .4 or .5 back up. As has been sugested by others 40.0 is a stiff resistance area, that being the case it seems within character that she back up and take a few runs at it before getting by. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3417 THB Now it she had or does slip below 39. into the 38s, then I would consider considering a retreat. But based on the last two weeks activity, this is normal. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.3405 THB Having said that, Im only listening to the music and watching Ms. Bhat closely. I dont have the music sheet infront of me so dont know the actual score. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> ---- ------ ---- Indeed so Maka! Some very astute observations; and this from someone who is not a trader. You could be a natural, amigo. Let me attempt to elucidate: Refer to the graph below; the recent action is to the right of the chart. See the 15 green candlesticks rising from the lower right hand side? Each one represents the entire action for a single day. Notice that there has not been a single red candle -- this means that there has NOT been a single day of retreat. Baht has just charged upward. So all I meant with the term "retreating" is that Baht is "correcting" the entire 15 day advance OR correcting only a portion thereof. This is NORMAL behaviour of trends. Nothing to worry about. An uptrend must attack, retreat, regroup and recharge for further assault, then attack again etc., etc., -- this is the normal progression of trends. Baht is just doing things that are expected; what is sublime is the fact that she rose for 15 days without a single down day ! Observe the power of the rise -- shown by the 3 increasing slopes (angles of ascent) represented by the black, pink & blue lines. If the Baht closes convincingly below the blue line, then we do indeed have a retracement (correction). How far would it go? Take it a day at a time. As for the "40" resistance area -- it is worse than what anybody else here has mentioned; not only is the 40 area tough, it is further exacerbated by the towering presence of the 200-day moving average; a guaranteed SUPPLY line where George soros (from jail, perhaps) will buy Baht, sending it downwards (=strengthening)! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> My gut feeling is that the Bhat will run flat (93.0-93.5) for a couple more days, throw in a weekend and were talking Monday or Tuesday (4th- 5th ) before upswing continues. This will make it "below", or in this case, to the right of the Blue line. I dont know if that will be far enough to be considerd "convincingly below" as you mentiond above? We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbaker8688 Posted March 31, 2005 Share Posted March 31, 2005 Where is the best place online to get (free) data on what a currency is trading at? I see all the graphs and charts and real-time info you guys throw up - I just wonder where you get it. I always go to, well... can't post the website cause someone might have a cow... but anyway the point is the web site sucks. I can only get a graph at the end of the day of what the currency did. And I can only get either a 6 month or 90 day graph. I can't anything intra-day either. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 OKThanks for the explination and chart, most helpfull. Is todays closeing in there too? I cant really tell. If it is the "correction" is not apparent. But the chart shows how significant this last two weeks has been, I know it was good but had no idea how good. Thanks for the peek at todays music sheet, it helps me to know the score. BTW is harmonica music writen in base or trebble clef? Unfortunately I do not get the end of day data until about 6:30 PM -- since that is what I base my analysis on, yesterday's chart did not and could not show the Baht's decline. So now that I have it, you can observe the large red candle indicating the retreat for one day (yesterday) and the fact that it broke the blue, steep uptrendline. The breaking of this line is NOT indicative of a change of longer-term trends, just only the very short-term; Baht can still rally and continue on upwards, i.e. get weaker -- but let's just take this a day at a time for now. Why just a day at a time for now? Because this is a supremely beautiful moment in time for the US dollar -- if I am correct in calling a major trend change, then we are sitting at the transition, the PMS phase, where trickery, deceit, recalcitrance, intolerance and other vile emotions combine forces to confound the trader and trend player. Once the trend develops some rhythm, these coalescing emotions get discharged as effluvium. Can she make it up to the green line, the 200-day moving average, & where the historical 40 resistance mark resides, where a battalion of eager Baht buyers, including George soros and perhaps Bill Clinton ( ) will fire their Gatlin guns --attempting to thwart her northbound journey? So without further ado, here's the picture ( worth ... more than...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Where is the best place online to get (free) data on what a currency is trading at? I see all the graphs and charts and real-time info you guys throw up - I just wonder where you get it. I always go to, well... can't post the website cause someone might have a cow... but anyway the point is the web site sucks. I can only get a graph at the end of the day of what the currency did. And I can only get either a 6 month or 90 day graph. I can't anything intra-day either.Thanks. FREE, almost real-time data can be found at http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencie...currencies.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeWill Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 It seems (to me at least) that there is a direct correlation between Baht & Yen, as if both these currencies (and economies as well) are depend on each other. Probably more correctly to say that the Baht is depend on Yen and follows its trend. Not sure tho' which dependency is stronger: THB & Yen or THB & SET. It would be more evident if Harmonica can provide illustrations of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 It seems (to me at least) that there is a direct correlation between Baht & Yen, as if both these currencies (and economies as well) are depend on each other. Probably more correctly to say that the Baht is depend on Yen and follows its trend. Not sure tho' which dependency is stronger: THB & Yen or THB & SET.It would be more evident if Harmonica can provide illustrations of the above. Yen is her big brother and he used to hold her hand while crossing the road on the way to school when she was a kid; he has looked after her ever since and she is devoted to him; when he goes head to head with the $, she cowers behind him and he shields her well. As for Baht & SET, they are like a Thai mother & daughter pair; they will sacrifice everyone else, but each other; so firm is the bond betwixt that even the 2nd place contender resides in a different, & inferior, galaxy. Thailand will rarely go against the regional trend as she is but a midget amongst giants; the big guns are Japan, King Kong, Taiwan, Korea and sterile, puerile, America's servant, Singapore. Nikkei topped in 1989, SET topped in 1993. I pay close attention to the Yen -- remember my note about it cossing 107? Yeah! Now check this out on the graph below: Yen and Baht gave the signal for trend change within ONE day of each other -- on Feb 8 & 9 respectively. How much sweeter can it get, Lord? If you open the floodgates so wide, I might drown; all I wanted was a shower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 OKThanks for the explination and chart, most helpfull. Is todays closeing in there too? I cant really tell. If it is the "correction" is not apparent. But the chart shows how significant this last two weeks has been, I know it was good but had no idea how good. Thanks for the peek at todays music sheet, it helps me to know the score. BTW is harmonica music writen in base or trebble clef? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Unfortunately I do not get the end of day data until about 6:30 PM -- since that is what I base my analysis on, yesterday's chart did not and could not show the Baht's decline. So now that I have it, you can observe the large red candle indicating the retreat for one day (yesterday) and the fact that it broke the blue, steep uptrendline. The breaking of this line is NOT indicative of a change of longer-term trends, just only the very short-term; Baht can still rally and continue on upwards, i.e. get weaker -- but let's just take this a day at a time for now. Why just a day at a time for now? Because this is a supremely beautiful moment in time for the US dollar -- if I am correct in calling a major trend change, then we are sitting at the transition,PMS phase, where trickery, deceit, recalcitrance, intolerance and other vile emotions combine forces to confound the trader and trend player. Once the trend develops the some rhythm, these coalescing emotions get discharged as effluvium. Can she make it up to the green line, the 200-day moving average, & where the historical 40 resistance mark resides, where a battalion of eager Baht buyers, including George soros and perhaps Bill Clinton ( ) will fire their Gatlin guns --attempting to thwart her northbound journey? So without further ado, here's the picture ( worth ... more than...) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Harmonica The "PMS" phase, ah yes the dreaded horormoans kick in. Checked the calendar, full moon 3 weeks off so, could be way worse..... Who is George Soros, and why would he and Bill be interested in the Bhat? "Once the trend develops the some rhythm, these coalescing emotions get discharged as effluvium." :D Well so far today, and right now, shes'a runnin right above the 39.15 line. Prety flat 39.240-39.249 ,more or less. Since the blue line is almost verticle, this would technically make it "below" the blue line. Infact moving directly away from the blue line. So I am inclined to think that: a) the blue line will not be crossed, perhaps paralelled. the red 39.15 line is the downward transition line to a full retreat from recent gains c) if she goes below the brown line, certainly the black line, the party is over, at least for now. d) From RT experiance horromoans last about 3-4 days, then its back to "normal",so if she runs flat like this for a couple more days watch for a parrelel to the blue line.And that is exactly what I think is going to happen. Whatcha think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Wow How right you are. Shes gone cookoo. After demurely hanging around the 39.24 mark for hours, she decides bouncing off the walls is a good idea The left wall has been 39.17-39.19 the right wall 39.25+, with no pauses in between straight from one wall to the other. Then she settles a little again before the bouncing starts once more. The scary thing is that left wall is awfully close to the 39.15 red line. 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.1953 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.2502 THB Literaly a minute apart. Seems like someonehas a stop around 39.16-17. I hope they have DEEP pockets Now a minute latter settled again 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.2382 THB 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.2468 THB Now bouncing 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.1894 THB ok 1/2 a bounce 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.2458 THB settled 1.00 USD United States Dollars = 39.2476 THB Might be a good time to go fishing for a couple days , 'till the horrormoans settle and she's over the Periodic Mental Stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Maka, Here's the complete, updated chart (includes today's action). See the horizontal dashed red line close to the bottom of the top window? that is the 39.15 Resistance level we talked about; and it is displaying an innate peculiar characteristic of support/resistance -- it has inverted from resistance, now that it has been crossed and is now offering support to the Baht to prevent it from going lower (stronger). Hehehehe, what can I say? Let the chart do the talking. Its Friday! Have a good one, amigo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Maka,Here's the complete, updated chart (includes today's action). See the horizontal dashed red line close to the bottom of the top window? that is the 39.15 Resistance level we talked about; and it is displaying an innate peculiar characteristic of support/resistance -- it has inverted from resistance, now that it has been crossed and is now offering support to the Baht to prevent it from going lower (stronger). Hehehehe, what can I say? Let the chart do the talking. Its Friday! Have a good one, amigo! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> OK, I see that, its moveing lateraly across the Top of, just above, the 39.15 red dotted line, ocassionaly touching it. So far so good. What is the information in the bottom two windows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 What's in the bottom 2 windows? They are Technical Indicators; shown are the MACD & RSI. Both "indicate" momentum -- there are over 200 indicators available nowadays with most software packages; but these 2 are old-timers; passed the test of time and work well. I have taken both indicators to new levels of exploration, not to be found in any books; entirely my own work -- ongoing and thus far, quite rewarding. Any good Tech. Analysis book will explain the basics of indicators adequately. But true skill comes from assessing the TOP window as a standalone application, for that is where SUPPLY/DEMAND is visible. Indicators help however and should be added to one's arsenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Maka, Since you're planning to get into Currency trading down the road, it might not be a bad idea to get some rudimentary knowledge of Elliotwave theory. Why? As per the Theory currencies tend to have exceptionally long 5th waves, as opposed to stocks, which generally have long 3rd waves. At the end of the 5th wave, the Trend is over and a reversal sets in. The 3rd, 5th etc., will all be explained once you get your foot in the door. If interested, there is a relatively inexpensive way to get the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Friday's action shows again, just as it did yesterday, and proves my theory yet again, for the umpteenth time -- the Thai stock market goes UP when the "foreign raiders" come calling. Here then is their size 15 footprint for Friday's action in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: Buying: 4,941 Selling: 3,566.42 Net Buying therefore = +1,374.58 Note: all figures in millions of Baht And what drove this stupendous rally of 2 days, totalling 23 points? Well it was Ms. Thai Baht's exchange fluctuation versus my buddy, the US Dollar! Maka, do you see that slight, ever so slight uptick on the MACD in the 2nd window of the graph -- to the extreme right of the chart? Why do I ask this? Because this uptick could be indicating that Baht is ready to continue upward; I would give this more creedence if Yen also starts moving upwards -- it has moved upto 107.47, but we need more proof. Maybe Monday's early action in both currencies will clue us into SET's action for the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maka Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 Oki Doki Define a wave How many points between top and bottom required to establish a wave? This latest rise then drop to red line considerd 1st wave? or second wave? or still top of a wave? So far the Bhat has stayed flat, skiping along the top of the red line. And to the horror of the Harem She touches it now and then Just to scare 'em Looking to Tues (Mon. US time) for next major movement. Looking forward to your days end chart for today, with comments Harmonica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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