Thailand's Economy Declines 7.1 Per Cent In First Quarter

[george]

Thailand's economy declines 7.1 per cent in first quarter

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) fell 7.1 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2009, with the consumer spending index falling for the first time since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, a government think tank revealed Monday. The National Economic and Social Developpment Board (NESDB) predicted that GDP will fall 2.5 to 3.5 per cent for all of 2009, should the political situation "stabilize."

Thailand's GDP declined 4.2 per cent in the last quarter of 2008 and 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, NESDB secretary-general Ampon Kittiampon said.

During the first three months of 2009, the consumer spending index fell 2.6 per cent, the first dip since the Asian financial crisis started in Thailand in 1997. Thailand's GDP fell about 11 per cent in 1998.

Ampon predicted slower declines in the next three quarters of 2009, if the political scene "stabilized" and the government could go ahead with investments in stimulus programmes.

"If the political situation doesn't deteriorate, I would say we have bottomed out," Ampon said.

Thailand has been plagued by unprecendented and prolonged political instability since May 2008, when anti-government protests began in Bangkok and culminated with the closure of the capital's two international airports for ten days in November and December.

Renewed anti-government protests, by new protestors against a new government, succeeded in forcing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to cancel a regional summit being held in Pattaya last month, raising serious questions about the country's political future.

-- DPA 2009-05-25

[midas]

"If the political situation doesn't deteriorate, I would say we have bottomed out," Ampon said.

I am already looking for the green shoots.................

[george]

Thai economy shrinks 7.1% in first quarter

BANGKOK: -- Thailand’s economy has now entered a recession after its gross domestic product (GDP) suffered a contraction of 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, much higher than 4.3 per cent down from the previous quarter, a senior government offcial announced on Monday.

Amphol Kitti-amphon, secretary-general of Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said the GDP contraction in the first quarter this year was also the lowest since 1997 when the country was hit by financial crisis.

Deteriorating global economic meltdown which is now expected to contract 4 per cent forced Thai exports to tumble 16.4 per cent while household consumption suffered contraction for the first time in 12 years at 2.6 per cent and private investment was down 17.7 per cent during the first quarter of this year, he said.

Because of these negative factors, the NESDB has downgraded Thailand’s GDP to contract between 2.5-3.5 per cent during the calendar 2009 from not over 1 per cent projected in February this year, said Mr. Amphol.

He forecast that Thai economy had already hit bottom during the first quarter of 2009 but if domestic political unrest continues like last month the economy would not be able to recover in 2010 as projected earlier.

It is hoped that the economy could start recovering from either late third or early fourth quarter this year if the government starts investing in the second economic stimulus programme which runs from 2010 to 2012, he said.

The government should start investing in major projects of the programme by this September at the latest as it could persuade private investors to follow suit in the first or second quarter of 2010, he said.

Besides downgrading GDP for 2009, the NESDB has forecast that Thailand’s exports would contract 15 per cent from 13 per cent projected earlier, imports to shrink further to 19.6 per cent from 14 per cent, trade to enjoy surplus of over US$8.3 billion, current account to also enjoy surplus of US$9.3 billion and inflation is projected at either contracting or rising at 0.5 per cent, he added.

-- TNA 2009-05-25

[Priceless]

[...]

Because of these negative factors, the NESDB has downgraded Thailand’s GDP to contract between 2.5-3.5 per cent during the calendar 2009 from not over 1 per cent projected in February this year, said Mr. Amphol.

[...]

I'm afraid that it will contract a lot more than that, more like the 7.1 per cent from Q1. The reason? The Thai economy is largely export-driven, which should lead to any recovery coming on the back of its customer nations. Many of these don't see any recovery this side of 2010, which sounds like very bad news for Thailand.

/ Priceless

[davejonesbkk]

Anyone have comparisons of how Thailand is doing compared to other Asian nations?

[Abrak]

[...]

Because of these negative factors, the NESDB has downgraded Thailand’s GDP to contract between 2.5-3.5 per cent during the calendar 2009 from not over 1 per cent projected in February this year, said Mr. Amphol.

[...]

I'm afraid that it will contract a lot more than that, more like the 7.1 per cent from Q1. The reason? The Thai economy is largely export-driven, which should lead to any recovery coming on the back of its customer nations. Many of these don't see any recovery this side of 2010, which sounds like very bad news for Thailand.

/ Priceless

Not that I would be as optimistic as the NESDB, I dont think there will be much further contraction for exactly the reason that Priceless mentions. As an export driven economy Thailand is presumably suffering a lot due to the inventory cycle which should bottom out soon (although there isnt much sign) at which point orders and exports should rebound.

To me the economy is more likely to bottom (and potentially recover) than the US whose 6% decline was supported by a 2% rise in consumer demand, a rise that might not continue.

[Priceless]

Two assumptions:

- The 7.1% contraction in Q1 is compared to Q1/08 (i.e. not compared Q4/08)

- There is little seasonal variation, i.e. all four quarters generate approximately the same GDP

If these assumptions are true, GDP for the three quarters that are still to follow must not contract more than 1.0%, compared to the same quarters last year, to achieve 2.5% yearly (i.e. average) contraction. To achieve 3.5% yearly contraction, they may contract by no more than 2.3%. Either case sounds rather unrealistic, considering the Q1 result.

/ Priceless

[madforit]

Two assumptions:

- The 7.1% contraction in Q1 is compared to Q1/08 (i.e. not compared Q4/08)

- There is little seasonal variation, i.e. all four quarters generate approximately the same GDP

If these assumptions are true, GDP for the three quarters that are still to follow must not contract more than 1.0%, compared to the same quarters last year, to achieve 2.5% yearly (i.e. average) contraction. To achieve 3.5% yearly contraction, they may contract by no more than 2.3%. Either case sounds rather unrealistic, considering the Q1 result.

/ Priceless

That's exactly what I was thinking.....totally un-realistic for the government to expect the contraction to shrink from 7.1% to 1.0% when the world and Asian economies are all still heading south. I think there is a lot worse to come for Thailand and the political situation isn't exactly going to help.

On a purely selfish view, if they would devalue the baht back to 65 or so to the GBP, and relax the immigration and property ownership laws then I (and I suspect a lot of others) would be very happy indeed..........then again I can always dream huh! Never in a million years As Thailand has such a large tourist economy surely a de-valuation of the Baht would bring in more money to the country.....or am I just being incredibly naiive ??

[Abrak]

Two assumptions:

- The 7.1% contraction in Q1 is compared to Q1/08 (i.e. not compared Q4/08)

- There is little seasonal variation, i.e. all four quarters generate approximately the same GDP

If these assumptions are true, GDP for the three quarters that are still to follow must not contract more than 1.0%, compared to the same quarters last year, to achieve 2.5% yearly (i.e. average) contraction. To achieve 3.5% yearly contraction, they may contract by no more than 2.3%. Either case sounds rather unrealistic, considering the Q1 result.

/ Priceless

Sorry Priceless I misread your earlier comment which I read as 'contract more 'than' the 7.1%' in the 1Q. I agree that the NESDB forecasts look optimistic although theoretically possible if the government implements its fiscal plans. I really only meant to say that a forecast of 5% contraction for the year would not be unreasonable. And in some respects the 7.1% contraction could be regarded as 'better than expected'.

For instance the statement that the Q1 yoy contraction might be the worst wouldnt seem that unreasonable to me. (Still I would put more money on a 7% contraction than the NESDB's.)

As I say, theoretically Thailand should be a beneficiary of the turnaround in the inventory cycle and hopefully this will happen sooner rather than later.

[Oberkommando]

On a purely selfish view, if they would devalue the baht back to 65 or so to the GBP, and relax the immigration and property ownership laws then I (and I suspect a lot of others) would be very happy indeed..........then again I can always dream huh! Never in a million years As Thailand has such a large tourist economy surely a de-valuation of the Baht would bring in more money to the country.....or am I just being incredibly naiive ??

I predict 80thb to the GBP by next May. This government's incompetence should be a factor. It's already on the slide at 54thb today. Long way to go though.

They will never relax the foreign land ownership laws while the biggest landowner in the country still has a say so you can forget about that and as for relaxing the immigration laws that is pie in the sky considering the mere handful of Westerners that are allowed to become Thai citizens every year.

Remembering of course there is a quota of 100 per qualifying nation for permanent residency (Immigrant visa) in the first place so citizenship for a Westerner is near impossible unless very wealthy and connected.

Quite why you'd want to Emigrate here is beyond me but each to their own.

[Abrak]

I dont understand all this bearishness against the baht.

I agree the fundamentals of Thailand are fairly crap but arent the fundamentals of GBP even worse?

I own GBP but I am getting to the 'no longer oversold' level and cant see the underlying reason that many people believe the baht is 'overvalued' relative to US$ or GBP.

[madforit]

On a purely selfish view, if they would devalue the baht back to 65 or so to the GBP, and relax the immigration and property ownership laws then I (and I suspect a lot of others) would be very happy indeed..........then again I can always dream huh! Never in a million years As Thailand has such a large tourist economy surely a de-valuation of the Baht would bring in more money to the country.....or am I just being incredibly naiive ??

I predict 80thb to the GBP by next May. This government's incompetence should be a factor. It's already on the slide at 54thb today. Long way to go though.

They will never relax the foreign land ownership laws while the biggest landowner in the country still has a say so you can forget about that and as for relaxing the immigration laws that is pie in the sky considering the mere handful of Westerners that are allowed to become Thai citizens every year.

Remembering of course there is a quota of 100 per qualifying nation for permanent residency (Immigrant visa) in the first place so citizenship for a Westerner is near impossible unless very wealthy and connected.

Quite why you'd want to Emigrate here is beyond me but each to their own.

Fair comment mate...I know absolutely that land ownership / immigration will never change for the better....I lived in Thailand long enough for that to become pretty obvious (about 3 years).

Why would I want to emigrate.......well, have you seen the UK lately ?????? But seriously, having lived in Thailand for a number of years I have friends out there and like the lifestyle, though the barely disguised xenophobic attitude towards farang from a lot of people (including offical government policy for example) is very hard to bear sometimes. Would it be too much to ask to be able to own a small house and the land it stands on without resorting to exploiting loopholes that could be closed at any minute, and to not to have to do ridiculous visa runs every few months???.....the answer to that question is of course unfortunately YES.

[Oberkommando]

Fair comment mate...I know absolutely that land ownership / immigration will never change for the better....I lived in Thailand long enough for that to become pretty obvious (about 3 years).

Why would I want to emigrate.......well, have you seen the UK lately ?????? But seriously, having lived in Thailand for a number of years I have friends out there and like the lifestyle, though the barely disguised xenophobic attitude towards farang from a lot of people (including offical government policy for example) is very hard to bear sometimes. Would it be too much to ask to be able to own a small house and the land it stands on without resorting to exploiting loopholes that could be closed at any minute, and to not to have to do ridiculous visa runs every few months???.....the answer to that question is of course unfortunately YES.

If you qualify to stay here then you shouldn't have to do visa runs.

Plenty more places to emigrate to if you don't like the rules.

[madforit]

Fair comment mate...I know absolutely that land ownership / immigration will never change for the better....I lived in Thailand long enough for that to become pretty obvious (about 3 years).

Why would I want to emigrate.......well, have you seen the UK lately ?????? But seriously, having lived in Thailand for a number of years I have friends out there and like the lifestyle, though the barely disguised xenophobic attitude towards farang from a lot of people (including offical government policy for example) is very hard to bear sometimes. Would it be too much to ask to be able to own a small house and the land it stands on without resorting to exploiting loopholes that could be closed at any minute, and to not to have to do ridiculous visa runs every few months???.....the answer to that question is of course unfortunately YES.

If you qualify to stay here then you shouldn't have to do visa runs.

Plenty more places to emigrate to if you don't like the rules.

I'm well aware of that.

Thanks for the snotty reply

[Abrak]

Fair comment mate...I know absolutely that land ownership / immigration will never change for the better....I lived in Thailand long enough for that to become pretty obvious (about 3 years).

Why would I want to emigrate.......well, have you seen the UK lately ?????? But seriously, having lived in Thailand for a number of years I have friends out there and like the lifestyle, though the barely disguised xenophobic attitude towards farang from a lot of people (including offical government policy for example) is very hard to bear sometimes. Would it be too much to ask to be able to own a small house and the land it stands on without resorting to exploiting loopholes that could be closed at any minute, and to not to have to do ridiculous visa runs every few months???.....the answer to that question is of course unfortunately YES.

Quite naturally I disagree. Now Thailand is in a hole but it is no bigger than anyone elses. Unlike say the UK I can see some obvious measures the Government can take to dig themselves out of this hole - say extending leases to 90 years. Unlike others I also believe we have a very competent finance minister (certainly more competent than anyone in the last 10 years - as a Thai you dont get to be headboy of Winchester for nothing.)

So expecting the worse for the foreseeable future doesnt seem to me correct (despite it being correct in the past) and expecting any currency (other than Zimbabwe) to depreciate 50% against the pound over the next 6 months would seem to need some justification.

[Priceless]

Sorry Priceless I misread your earlier comment which I read as 'contract more 'than' the 7.1%' in the 1Q. I agree that the NESDB forecasts look optimistic although theoretically possible if the government implements its fiscal plans. I really only meant to say that a forecast of 5% contraction for the year would not be unreasonable. And in some respects the 7.1% contraction could be regarded as 'better than expected'.

For instance the statement that the Q1 yoy contraction might be the worst wouldnt seem that unreasonable to me. (Still I would put more money on a 7% contraction than the NESDB's.)

As I say, theoretically Thailand should be a beneficiary of the turnaround in the inventory cycle and hopefully this will happen sooner rather than later.

Playing with numbers is fun

If one assumes that the rate of GDP contraction would reach 3.5% at the end of the year, then a (linear) development could look like this:

Q1: -7.1%

Q2: -5.9%

Q3: -4.7%

Q4: -3.5%

That doesn't look altogether unreasonable to me, but would still mean a contraction for the year of 5.3%. Any takers?

/ Priceless

[Abrak]

Sorry Priceless I misread your earlier comment which I read as 'contract more 'than' the 7.1%' in the 1Q. I agree that the NESDB forecasts look optimistic although theoretically possible if the government implements its fiscal plans. I really only meant to say that a forecast of 5% contraction for the year would not be unreasonable. And in some respects the 7.1% contraction could be regarded as 'better than expected'.

For instance the statement that the Q1 yoy contraction might be the worst wouldnt seem that unreasonable to me. (Still I would put more money on a 7% contraction than the NESDB's.)

As I say, theoretically Thailand should be a beneficiary of the turnaround in the inventory cycle and hopefully this will happen sooner rather than later.

Playing with numbers is fun

If one assumes that the rate of GDP contraction would reach 3.5% at the end of the year, then a (linear) development could look like this:

Q1: -7.1%

Q2: -5.9%

Q3: -4.7%

Q4: -3.5%

That doesn't look altogether unreasonable to me, but would still mean a contraction for the year of 5.3%. Any takers?

/ Priceless

Those sound good to me.

If you happen to have the numbers what would the figure be if Q1 remained constant for each of the following 3Q. (P.S. I didnt really know whether your comment there was little seasonal variation was an assumption or a fact - I thought there was a 4Q seasonal effect.)

[madforit]

Fair comment mate...I know absolutely that land ownership / immigration will never change for the better....I lived in Thailand long enough for that to become pretty obvious (about 3 years).

Why would I want to emigrate.......well, have you seen the UK lately ?????? But seriously, having lived in Thailand for a number of years I have friends out there and like the lifestyle, though the barely disguised xenophobic attitude towards farang from a lot of people (including offical government policy for example) is very hard to bear sometimes. Would it be too much to ask to be able to own a small house and the land it stands on without resorting to exploiting loopholes that could be closed at any minute, and to not to have to do ridiculous visa runs every few months???.....the answer to that question is of course unfortunately YES.

Quite naturally I disagree. Now Thailand is in a hole but it is no bigger than anyone elses. Unlike say the UK I can see some obvious measures the Government can take to dig themselves out of this hole - say extending leases to 90 years. Unlike others I also believe we have a very competent finance minister (certainly more competent than anyone in the last 10 years - as a Thai you dont get to be headboy of Winchester for nothing.)

So expecting the worse for the foreseeable future doesnt seem to me correct (despite it being correct in the past) and expecting any currency (other than Zimbabwe) to depreciate 50% against the pound over the next 6 months would seem to need some justification.

Sorry Abrak...don't quite get where you got that figure from my quote.......currently baht is trading at 1GBP/54Baht here, my comment said 'it would be nice for baht to be trading at 1GBP/65Baht (where it was last year)... hardly 50% mate.......your quoted figure of 50% would mean 1GBP = 81Baht...not a chance !.......I'm assuming you meant to quote OrberKommando when he predicted 80baht to the pound

However, I agree with your comment about GBP not exactly being in a strong position either. It 'aint! hehehe

co-incidentally I have a 1,000,000 Zimbabwean dollar note in my desk.........I doubt at this moment it could buy the same sized piece of toilet paper

Edited May 25, 2009 by madforit

[Oberkommando]

If you qualify to stay here then you shouldn't have to do visa runs.

Plenty more places to emigrate to if you don't like the rules.

You sound like a prize wanke_r -

Just pointing out the reality.

Another potless visa runner who thinks he has a God-given right to remain indefinitely in Thailand I take it?

[topsecret]

There's a new law due to be passed this year according to my lawyers.

If you are married to a Thai and you both have a kid you can apply for Thai Nationality after 3 consecutive years married with an O visa.

The conditions are:

Financially stable (What ever that means)

DNA evidence to prove you are the father (That will cancel 40% of all applications right off)

Able to speak, read and write Thai ( no problem, I've got 3 years to brush up)

Able to sing the National Anthem right through (I said I can't sing but apparently that doesn't matter)

Foreigners are not expected to renounce or give up their current citizenship.

I'll believe it when i see it but I certainly hope it goes through.

Can anyone verify this?

Edited May 25, 2009 by topsecret

[Oberkommando]

There's a new law due to be passed this year according to my lawyers.

If you are married to a Thai with a Thai kid you can apply for Thai Nationality after 3 consecutive years married with an O visa.

The conditions are:

Financially stable (What ever that means)

DNA evidence to prove you are the father (That will cancel 40% of all applications right off)

Able to speak, read and write Thai ( no problem, I've got 3 years to brush up)

Able to sing the National Anthem right through (I said I can't sing but apparently that doesn't matter)

Foreigners are not expected to renounce or give up their current citizenship.

I'll believe it when i see it but I certainly hope it goes through.

Can anyone verify this?

There's a quota on foreigners who can apply for Immigrant visa (permanent residence) as I explained earlier. 100 per nation.

Quotas on Westerners being made Thai citizens after becoming permanent residents is in the dozens.

Never going to happen, sorry.

[Thai at Heart]

I dont understand all this bearishness against the baht.

I agree the fundamentals of Thailand are fairly crap but arent the fundamentals of GBP even worse?

I own GBP but I am getting to the 'no longer oversold' level and cant see the underlying reason that many people believe the baht is 'overvalued' relative to US$ or GBP.

You are assuming that of their exports the vast majority of the inputs originate here. The last time I looked they still have a trade surplus because they aren't importing all the necessary inputs for the exported products. This isn't an input rich country. Export a pickup or a computer and maybe 80% of its value is imported.

Reduced exports = proportionally reduced imports also.

[madforit]

If you qualify to stay here then you shouldn't have to do visa runs.

Plenty more places to emigrate to if you don't like the rules.

You sound like a prize wanke_r -

Just pointing out the reality.

Another potless visa runner who thinks he has a God-given right to remain indefinitely in Thailand I take it?

Did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning Ober, or are you always like this ???? No need to be so unpleasant is there. Now I have no idea about the status of Hanzkneez but if you were referring to me as 'a potless visa runner' then perhaps you should bother finding out some facts before you cast aspersions. I don't see why I should tell you anything of myself, but suffice to say that at aged 40 I could retire should I so wish......in the UK as well as Thailand. And no, I have never inherited anything, its through sheer bl**dy hard work, 7 days a week, for years.

I don't think I have a God-given right to remain indefinitely in Thailand.....far from it......my point was (as I sure you would have seen had you bothered to read my posts) that it WOULD BE NICE if I could stay permanently in Thailand without all the current hoops you have to jump through. I know I do not have the right. Yes there are many other places I could choose to go, but Thailand is my second home at the moment, and I very much love the country and people, and I would like it to be my first. Sorry if that doesn't fit in with your "if you don't like it you can <deleted> off" mentality.

I'm just suprised and saddened that there are people on here who feel so superior to others that they come out with comments such as you have.

Anyway, I'm refusing to come down to that level so I shall sign off from this post by saying that I hope you continue to have a good life in the LOS and i hope that you manage to avoid the problems that will inevitably arise for you given your attitude.

Best of luck

[Oberkommando]

Did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning Ober, or are you always like this ???? No need to be so unpleasant is there. Now I have no idea about the status of Hanzkneez but if you were referring to me as 'a potless visa runner' then perhaps you should bother finding out some facts before you cast aspersions. I don't see why I should tell you anything of myself, but suffice to say that at aged 40 I could retire should I so wish......in the UK as well as Thailand. And no, I have never inherited anything, its through sheer bl**dy hard work, 7 days a week, for years.

I don't think I have a God-given right to remain indefinitely in Thailand.....far from it......my point was (as I sure you would have seen had you bothered to read my posts) that it WOULD BE NICE if I could stay permanently in Thailand without all the current hoops you have to jump through. I know I do not have the right. Yes there are many other places I could choose to go, but Thailand is my second home at the moment, and I very much love the country and people, and I would like it to be my first. Sorry if that doesn't fit in with your "if you don't like it you can <deleted> off" mentality.

I'm just suprised and saddened that there are people on here who feel so superior to others that they come out with comments such as you have.

Anyway, I'm refusing to come down to that level so I shall sign off from this post by saying that I hope you continue to have a good life in the LOS and i hope that you manage to avoid the problems that will inevitably arise for you given your attitude.

Best of luck

I was responding to an unprovoked insult directed at me if you care to read the thread again.

Just why that poster decided to chip in may be in some way explained with my retort.

I have been in South East Asia almost 25 years now and never had a problem with my attitude, although thanks for your concern.

I merely suggested if Thailand does not bend to fit your needs why do you not bend to fit them instead? Plenty of other more welcoming destinations where you can stay without your visa issues and land ownership issues.

You'll find if you adapt instead, you'll be less inclined to encounter the sorts of annoyances you wish would change in Thailand.

[MacWalen]

By seeing how a lot of Thais work I would say the crisis did not arrive yet. Still hard to find good staff to work. Seems like job is not their priority as they can find another one easily. Also the attitude towards learning new things, or actually learning. Nitnoy poh leaw, what is the point in really knowing the nuts and bolts of things. This nitnoy poh leaw culture will hit home soon I'm afraid.

[geriatrickid]

Playing with numbers is fun

If one assumes that the rate of GDP contraction would reach 3.5% at the end of the year, then a (linear) development could look like this:

Q1: -7.1%

Q2: -5.9%

Q3: -4.7%

Q4: -3.5%

That doesn't look altogether unreasonable to me, but would still mean a contraction for the year of 5.3%. Any takers?

/ Priceless

I dunno. My head hurts trying to do them figures

However, what's your take on the impact of such a trend on inflation? Unlike western economies that have seen declining prices, particularly those where oil is a factor, I don't think or at least haven't seen Thai prices decrease in the same way. Sure, Thailand is agrarian driven and the export price of rice has fallen, but domestic prices haven't. No discountng as in the west. What do you think?

[cmsally]

By seeing how a lot of Thais work I would say the crisis did not arrive yet. Still hard to find good staff to work. Seems like job is not their priority as they can find another one easily. Also the attitude towards learning new things, or actually learning. Nitnoy poh leaw, what is the point in really knowing the nuts and bolts of things. This nitnoy poh leaw culture will hit home soon I'm afraid.

I got the impression that "nitnoi por laew" was actually encouraged at the moment!

As well as that it is something that is culturally engrained and it doesn't equip society to deal with a crisis.

I would say at the moment it is a case of bricks being taken out of the wall to patch up holes in the wall. It is a case of waiting for the stage when ratio of holes to bricks meets a crucial point.

[Robert44]

On a purely selfish view, if they would devalue the baht back to 65 or so to the GBP, and relax the immigration and property ownership laws then I (and I suspect a lot of others) would be very happy indeed..........then again I can always dream huh! Never in a million years As Thailand has such a large tourist economy surely a de-valuation of the Baht would bring in more money to the country.....or am I just being incredibly naiive ??

I predict 80thb to the GBP by next May. This government's incompetence should be a factor. It's already on the slide at 54thb today. Long way to go though.

They will never relax the foreign land ownership laws while the biggest landowner in the country still has a say so you can forget about that and as for relaxing the immigration laws that is pie in the sky considering the mere handful of Westerners that are allowed to become Thai citizens every year.

Remembering of course there is a quota of 100 per qualifying nation for permanent residency (Immigrant visa) in the first place so citizenship for a Westerner is near impossible unless very wealthy and connected.

Quite why you'd want to Emigrate here is beyond me but each to their own.

Cannot understand why you say it is near impossible to get citizenship - I have Thai residency (was very easy to get) and am thinking to get Thai nationality. The only thing holding me back is my poor Thai, which I am working on now.

[Lite Beer]

Cannot understand why you say it is near impossible to get citizenship - I have Thai residency (was very easy to get) and am thinking to get Thai nationality. The only thing holding me back is my poor Thai, which I am working on now.

It is impossible for those staying here on Retirement Status.

[Robert44]

Cannot understand why you say it is near impossible to get citizenship - I have Thai residency (was very easy to get) and am thinking to get Thai nationality. The only thing holding me back is my poor Thai, which I am working on now.

It is impossible for those staying here on Retirement Status.

Agreed but Oberkommando was not making that distinction, many people here not on retirment visa's but still having many problems with visa's.