The Stock Market

[zorro1]

Just popped in for a look. Hope everyone bought as I suggested in my last post(anyone following from day one would have made a killing), excluding the chicken little brigade who I see are are either out of their depth or their minds How do you people get it so wrong? will pop in next week, to busy deciding what to sell at the moment. What a glorious year. simply glorious but nobody made money without kahoonas of steel. Just warm little cococunts around here.

Well you obviously have a natural talent for understanding the " market ".

So what do you think will happen next ..up or down and why ?

Midas I wouldnt have clue. Isreall could hit Iran any momemt and there would be at least a 1000pt drop. Apart from that there was good news on the USA job numbers yesterday but already priced in just like the bad news. There isnt going to be a big green flag anytime ever to say its safe to buy now,I believe the worst is behind us and thats all that matters. Some have many millions invested and to see a 100k-200k fluctuation daily needs a mental toughnes and conviction. I am no where near that category but trying my best to get there. holding longterm is the only way to make BIG gains. 90% of day traders either fail or end up longterm through bad descisions including myself with a few long termers forced upon me

Edited December 5, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Bizarre day, large sell off many stocks on no apparent news and steady futures. got caught up in it myself. Strange feeling today so went with intuition and sold quite a lot.

[Abrak]

Bizarre day, large sell off many stocks on no apparent news and steady futures. got caught up in it myself. Strange feeling today so went with intuition and sold quite a lot.

There is a little bit of news out there. The US$ has bounced (a bit) and 10 year USTs have gone from 3.2% to 3.45% over the last few days.

I think the possibility of a sustainable bounce in the US$ will tend to frighten the markets as it has been the dollar's decline that has been driving global liquidity, inflation expectations, the fall in real interest rates and the rise of asset markets. If you look most asset markets are inversely correlated with the US$ (take a look at the correlation in the last year).

What potentially is driving a US$ bounce (apart from the oversold argument) is that US growth in 2010 will be around 2.9%, the UK's 1.5%, Japan's 1.0% and Euro's 0.5%. So investors are looking more towards the US raising rates first. Ultimately Bernanke's plan is to inflate the US out of its problems, so the more 'real' growth he achieves the less he needs inflation and the more likely he is to raise rates, boosting 'real' interest rates which will be bad for asset markets. Ultimately asset markets are pretty highly leveraged to the US$.

Now I have no idea whether the US$ will go up or down, but it has shown apparent signs of life.

Also I think Zorro should be a little careful in case he gets what he predicts - a 'V' shaped recovery. Morgan Stanley expect 10 year USTs to go from 3.3% to 5.5% next year because they are bullish on the economy.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/mo...ps-in-2010.html

[zorro1]

Bizarre day, large sell off many stocks on no apparent news and steady futures. got caught up in it myself. Strange feeling today so went with intuition and sold quite a lot.

There is a little bit of news out there. The US$ has bounced (a bit) and 10 year USTs have gone from 3.2% to 3.45% over the last few days.

I think the possibility of a sustainable bounce in the US$ will tend to frighten the markets as it has been the dollar's decline that has been driving global liquidity, inflation expectations, the fall in real interest rates and the rise of asset markets. If you look most asset markets are inversely correlated with the US$ (take a look at the correlation in the last year).

What potentially is driving a US$ bounce (apart from the oversold argument) is that US growth in 2010 will be around 2.9%, the UK's 1.5%, Japan's 1.0% and Euro's 0.5%. So investors are looking more towards the US raising rates first. Ultimately Bernanke's plan is to inflate the US out of its problems, so the more 'real' growth he achieves the less he needs inflation and the more likely he is to raise rates, boosting 'real' interest rates which will be bad for asset markets. Ultimately asset markets are pretty highly leveraged to the US$.

Now I have no idea whether the US$ will go up or down, but it has shown apparent signs of life.

Also I think Zorro should be a little careful in case he gets what he predicts - a 'V' shaped recovery. Morgan Stanley expect 10 year USTs to go from 3.3% to 5.5% next year because they are bullish on the economy.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/mo...ps-in-2010.html

frightened the markets for sure. futures -50 but sell off today was around -5. so what do you think gold will do amongst this sudden burst in U.S dollar activity? Gold dropped a bit friday but i sold mine the week before and missed some big gains last week

[Abrak]

frightened the markets for sure. futures -50 but sell off today was around -5. so what do you think gold will do amongst this sudden burst in U.S dollar activity? Gold dropped a bit friday but i sold mine the week before and missed some big gains last week

Well Zorro, it is no more than a little blip. But at this time of year punters are looking forward and usually buying stocks for next year (often the dogs of this year). So I think they are being put off a bit by the concept that it might be the dollar that rises into the New Year rather than stocks. I dont think you need to be a dollar bull to expect a bounce at some point.

So obviously gold has sold off a bit. The US stockmarkets could do pretty well relatively and start outperforming others.

[lannarebirth]

frightened the markets for sure. futures -50 but sell off today was around -5. so what do you think gold will do amongst this sudden burst in U.S dollar activity? Gold dropped a bit friday but i sold mine the week before and missed some big gains last week

Well Zorro, it is no more than a little blip. But at this time of year punters are looking forward and usually buying stocks for next year (often the dogs of this year). So I think they are being put off a bit by the concept that it might be the dollar that rises into the New Year rather than stocks. I dont think you need to be a dollar bull to expect a bounce at some point.

So obviously gold has sold off a bit. The US stockmarkets could do pretty well relatively and start outperforming others.

I was working a blowoff scenario here into next week and double topping near yearend, and doing a retestish of lows, but it doesn't look like it's got the juice to do it. Ultimately, not blowing off here is more bullish and at some point that Bond money is going to find its way back in. That's a lot of bread.

[zorro1]

frightened the markets for sure. futures -50 but sell off today was around -5. so what do you think gold will do amongst this sudden burst in U.S dollar activity? Gold dropped a bit friday but i sold mine the week before and missed some big gains last week

Well Zorro, it is no more than a little blip. But at this time of year punters are looking forward and usually buying stocks for next year (often the dogs of this year). So I think they are being put off a bit by the concept that it might be the dollar that rises into the New Year rather than stocks. I dont think you need to be a dollar bull to expect a bounce at some point.

So obviously gold has sold off a bit. The US stockmarkets could do pretty well relatively and start outperforming others.

Hmmmm well for me to post a sell is rare to say the least but today spooked me more than any other day so far. the sell off on pennies all happened in the last 60 mins of trading. sell off on no obvious news is alarming for me especially large drop on small volume . I know that sounds odd but by the time you see large volume sells on pennies its all over futures touched -70 , something brewing and glad I followed the sheep today for a change. Of course i could be totally wrong but that would be a first too

[badge]

Hmmmm well for me to post a sell is rare to say the least but today spooked me more than any other day so far. the sell off on pennies all happened in the last 60 mins of trading. sell off on no obvious news is alarming for me especially large drop on small volume . I know that sounds odd but by the time you see large volume sells on pennies its all over futures touched -70 , something brewing and glad I followed the sheep today for a change. Of course i could be totally wrong but that would be a first too

Some of your holdings were marked down on light volume, so you sold too? I know what Jesse Livermore would say

As an aside, I note Ive only seen mention of trading in Australian penny shares, and the ASX is almost 5% lower than it was 2 months ago.

Perhaps the jibes towards folks suggsting you act with caution over the last couple of months were inappropriate?

Infact given the inherant high transaction costs of penny shares, it seems odd that you would 'double up, take profits, get in , get out' etc so frequently, seemingly whenever the US markets move up or down? But hey, whatever works

[zorro1]

Hmmmm well for me to post a sell is rare to say the least but today spooked me more than any other day so far. the sell off on pennies all happened in the last 60 mins of trading. sell off on no obvious news is alarming for me especially large drop on small volume . I know that sounds odd but by the time you see large volume sells on pennies its all over futures touched -70 , something brewing and glad I followed the sheep today for a change. Of course i could be totally wrong but that would be a first too

Some of your holdings were marked down on light volume, so you sold too? I know what Jesse Livermore would say

As an aside, I note Ive only seen mention of trading in Australian penny shares, and the ASX is almost 5% lower than it was 2 months ago.

Perhaps the jibes towards folks suggsting you act with caution over the last couple of months were inappropriate?

Infact given the inherant high transaction costs of penny shares, it seems odd that you would 'double up, take profits, get in , get out' etc so frequently, seemingly whenever the US markets move up or down? But hey, whatever works

I have been told to be cautious for the last 12 months LOL but thanks I needed to hear it just one more time

my shares are bought and sold at $20 penny or blue , not sure what you mean? thats very cheap. yes my method works very well

Edited December 8, 2009 by zorro1

[lannarebirth]

Hmmmm well for me to post a sell is rare to say the least but today spooked me more than any other day so far. the sell off on pennies all happened in the last 60 mins of trading. sell off on no obvious news is alarming for me especially large drop on small volume . I know that sounds odd but by the time you see large volume sells on pennies its all over futures touched -70 , something brewing and glad I followed the sheep today for a change. Of course i could be totally wrong but that would be a first too

Some of your holdings were marked down on light volume, so you sold too? I know what Jesse Livermore would say

As an aside, I note Ive only seen mention of trading in Australian penny shares, and the ASX is almost 5% lower than it was 2 months ago.

Perhaps the jibes towards folks suggsting you act with caution over the last couple of months were inappropriate?

Infact given the inherant high transaction costs of penny shares, it seems odd that you would 'double up, take profits, get in , get out' etc so frequently, seemingly whenever the US markets move up or down? But hey, whatever works

I have been told to be cautious for the last 12 months LOL but thanks I needed to hear it just one more time

my shares are bought and sold at $20 penny or blue , not sure what you mean? thats very cheap. yes my method works very well

I think the reason people are worried about you is that you say you have 15% stop losses and you seem to get stopped out everytime the market makes a .5% dip.

[zorro1]

good one lana I dont know whats more stressful making it or trying to save it, but then again its a luxury you cant afford. Must be easy sitting there stress free eating mama noodles.

[badge]

I have been told to be cautious for the last 12 months LOL but thanks I needed to hear it just one more time

my shares are bought and sold at $20 penny or blue , not sure what you mean? thats very cheap. yes my method works very well

I didnt tell you to be cautious? I dont think I ever have?

Do as you wish

I asked whether you thought perhaps your highly dismissive responses over the last few months to anyone advocating caution, was a little harsh, in light of the fact your benchmark stock index is over 4% below its peak, made 2 months ago? Small cap measures have fared even worse.

If your not sure what I mean when I speak of high transaction costs on penny shares, I could draw many possible conclusions. Suffice to say I was'nt refering to brokerage commissions/charges.

Good luck

[zorro1]

I have been told to be cautious for the last 12 months LOL but thanks I needed to hear it just one more time

my shares are bought and sold at $20 penny or blue , not sure what you mean? thats very cheap. yes my method works very well

I didnt tell you to be cautious? I dont think I ever have?

Do as you wish

I asked whether you thought perhaps your highly dismissive responses over the last few months to anyone advocating caution, was a little harsh, in light of the fact your benchmark stock index is over 4% below its peak, made 2 months ago? Small cap measures have fared even worse.

If your not sure what I mean when I speak of high transaction costs on penny shares, I could draw many possible conclusions. Suffice to say I was'nt refering to brokerage commissions/charges.

Good luck

4% thats odd, have made 50-400% profits on pennies. Wouldn't get out of bed for 4%. Anybody buying pennies would have made that at least since feb. That time has passed you either boarded the train or you didnt. It wasnt difficult you make it sound hard LOL a monkey could have achieved 100% gains in that period. back then you plonked down a large sum, waited a few months then sold. That wont go on forever in fact it has tapered off and reduced last few months its called profit taking

[lannarebirth]

good one lana I dont know whats more stressful making it or trying to save it, but then again its a luxury you cant afford. Must be easy sitting there stress free eating mama noodles.

Life is not without its stresses but I think I've probably got fewer than most, for which I'm thankful. You know a truly rich man would be one that had to eat Mama noodles but absolutely loved doing so.

Anyway I guess you're off your "V" rebound huh? Cause you sure wouldn't want to lose your position if you still felt the same way, just ask Mr. Partridge. That's Livermore 101.

[badge]

[...]That time has passed you either boarded the train or you didnt. It wasnt difficult you make it sound hard LOL a monkey could have achieved 100% gains in that period. back then you plonked down a large sum, waited a few months then sold. That wont go on forever in fact it has tapered off and reduced last few months its called profit taking

As mentioned a few pages back, I created a thread in MARCH 2009 where I was buying financial, resource and property equities, and currencies(risk).

You were no where to be seen at the lows, when I was buying?

You do, however, seem very keen and jovial at the moment. Bon chance

[badge]

good one lana I dont know whats more stressful making it or trying to save it, but then again its a luxury you cant afford. Must be easy sitting there stress free eating mama noodles.

Life is not without its stresses but I think I've probably got fewer than most, for which I'm thankful. You know a truly rich man would be one that had to eat Mama noodles but absolutely loved doing so.

Anyway I guess you're off your "V" rebound huh? Cause you sure wouldn't want to lose your position if you still felt the same way, just ask Mr. Partridge. That's Livermore 101.

I thought of old Turkey this very day. I wouldnt worry about Zorro, hes been given more than enough rope, and hes obliged as far as Im concerned. How are you doing? Have anything interesting on at the mo?

[lannarebirth]

good one lana I dont know whats more stressful making it or trying to save it, but then again its a luxury you cant afford. Must be easy sitting there stress free eating mama noodles.

Life is not without its stresses but I think I've probably got fewer than most, for which I'm thankful. You know a truly rich man would be one that had to eat Mama noodles but absolutely loved doing so.

Anyway I guess you're off your "V" rebound huh? Cause you sure wouldn't want to lose your position if you still felt the same way, just ask Mr. Partridge. That's Livermore 101.

I thought of old Turkey this very day. I wouldnt worry about Zorro, hes been given more than enough rope, and hes obliged as far as Im concerned. How are you doing? Have anything interesting on at the mo?

$XAU puts and ES short, but I'm probably going to have to reload both again. Good strenth in TF and NQ. And watching the $USD. Looks like 78 is pretty important. Will get 2nd positive close above flattened 50 sma today. From yesterday:

Weekly has the big MACD crossover:

We'll see.

[badge]

You see my broker has spot gold as XAU, but im guessing you mean HUI? Gold stocks? Ive left gold well alone, ive never thought about it before but looked into buying some bars for xmas gifts. What a joke! A mars bar sized lump of gold is 1kg/$40,000.

Ive been short(UK things) a while, reversed index short y'day 1pip off the low, so if it breaks down I'll flip again for a few pips loss. For now I have SPX support at 88(obviously) and 82/82.5 if 88 fails. I also have DXY res at 76.45/.55.

Be an interesting session or two if both went

[flying]

What a joke! A mars bar sized lump of gold is 1kg/$40,000.

Then again folks who bought that bar for $25,725 last October are feeling ok about it

Edited December 9, 2009 by flying

[lannarebirth]

You see my broker has spot gold as XAU, but im guessing you mean HUI? Gold stocks? Ive left gold well alone, ive never thought about it before but looked into buying some bars for xmas gifts. What a joke! A mars bar sized lump of gold is 1kg/$40,000.

Ive been short(UK things) a while, reversed index short y'day 1pip off the low, so if it breaks down I'll flip again for a few pips loss. For now I have SPX support at 88(obviously) and 82/82.5 if 88 fails. I also have DXY res at 76.45/.55.

Be an interesting session or two if both went

The $XAU is the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_...nd_Silver_Index

Weighted only to major miners. $HUI includes many more junior miners.

[badge]

What a joke! A mars bar sized lump of gold is 1kg/$40,000.

Then again folks who bought that bar for $25,725 last October are feeling ok about it

Im sure. Ive just never thought of buying physical, and thought about the cost/dimensions of the stuff in doing so.

Looks like they'll be getting socks for Xmas then

[flying]

What a joke! A mars bar sized lump of gold is 1kg/$40,000.

Then again folks who bought that bar for $25,725 last October are feeling ok about it

Im sure. Ive just never thought of buying physical, and thought about the cost/dimensions of the stuff in doing so.

Looks like they'll be getting socks for Xmas then

Socks are always appreciated

But if I had no PM's I would be watching very carefully now.

This correction which could go a bit lower could be a great gift

Similar to last Oct albeit 50% higher than that time.

But where it goes after Xmas & into 2010 spring IMO will be a nice gift/return for those

who buy during this correction.

Edited December 9, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

Anyone interested in Asian markets, here is an update courtesy of CLS.

Performance Asia ex-Japan +66% YTD, Indo 122%, India 97%, China 61%, Thailand 60%. US 21%, Japan 9%.

PE Asia ex-Japan 16.7x falling to 14.2x 2010. P/BV 2.2x falling to 2.0x. 15% premium to long term average. 2010 EPS growth 20.3%.

Thailand lowest current year PE of 13.0x falling to 11.6x on 12.2% EPS growth in 2010. Taiwan most expensive 19.2x 2010 on 31% EPS growth. Korea cheapest 2010 on 11.2x and lowest P/BV of 1.28x.

[lannarebirth]

I've posted this chart before. Worth watching IMO.

[William Osborne]

I've posted this chart before. Worth watching IMO.

care to tell us why ?

[lannarebirth]

I've posted this chart before. Worth watching IMO.

care to tell us why ?

Call it what you like, a Broadening Top, a Megaphone Pattern, an Expanding Triangle, it is typically a bearish pattern. Negative divergances would seem to confirm and gaps below unfilled need filling (though that doesn't have to happen now).

On the other hand if negatively diverging MACD turns up and breaks its own downtrend line that could be super bullish, but that occurs rarely from my experience. FWIW OCICBW etc.

[teletiger]

It looks to have been rolling over for some time.

Pimco are sitting on their largest cash position since Lehman's toes turned up. End of year or caution?

Regards.

[Naam]

It looks to have been rolling over for some time. Pimco are sitting on their largest cash position since Lehman's toes turned up. End of year or caution?

Bill Gross read my postings in another forum that i hold the highest percentage of cash (at zero percent yield) ever. as simple as that.

[flying]

Russian Roulette with 5 bullets instead of 1

Edited December 20, 2009 by flying

[lannarebirth]

I've posted this chart before. Worth watching IMO.

care to tell us why ?

Call it what you like, a Broadening Top, a Megaphone Pattern, an Expanding Triangle, it is typically a bearish pattern. Negative divergances would seem to confirm and gaps below unfilled need filling (though that doesn't have to happen now).

On the other hand if negatively diverging MACD turns up and breaks its own downtrend line that could be super bullish, but that occurs rarely from my experience. FWIW OCICBW etc.

Never mind.