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I would like to ask him why did the market react suddenly last night on the news of Greece when we have seen it coming for months ?

PLUS why does one country like Greece create that panic last night when 41 of the 50 US states are in the same position ? Why is no one panicking about that ?

" While Greece dominates the headlines, California’s state debt is actually rated as more risky than Greek debt by at least two rating agencies."

It has actually started leaking again that it is more than Greece. ( Portugal & Spain downgrade )

Do agree though that the States are in reality a bigger risk to the USD than the PIIGS are to the Euro...Well perhaps should say its all bad for fiats

And Spain and Portugal who are themselves insolvent are lending money to Greece and will have to borrow more money themsleves to do so :D

Talk about re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic :)

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actually it not 41 its now 49 :)

Pretty bad eh?

You know what is grating here?

Now that they are underwater/under funded guess what is the first to be cut?

No not fat govt positions but services ....of course.

The bloated govt stays the same.

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Hey flying.. good old USA is PAYING AGAIN ! :)

God you Americans must have such deep pockets :D

Greek (Inverse) DIP Update: Bailout Loans To Be Junior To Existing Claims

In breaking all ties with reality, the IMF has decided that not only will US taxpayer money be freely abused to rescue a profligate Greece, but that money will be effectively junior to existing claims, in essence making it some MC Escher DIP reverse DIP nightmare. Basically US taxpayers will be Last In, Last Out, and will recover any proceeds only after existing creditors get paid out. Pardon us, but this is bloody ridiculous. When will someone in the mainstream media start focusing on this??? Americans are getting the short end of the stick, and nobody in this country knows or cares about it.This is more billions that will be promptly paid and never recovered.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-inv...existing-claims

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Correct - but to assume that yesterdays selloff was caused by Greece's or anyones problems shows "naive reasoning". If you checked one of my posts late last week - I warned about a sell-off early this week. So therefore how would I know about this weeks news?

This sell-off is over for the moment - but shall be continued in a few days on a much more significant level. Again, how would I know?

I will again post the beginning of the sell-off a day or so in advance.

Please post your predictions at least a month in advance.

:)

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"Mainstreet" does not care nor understand - and - "Wallstreet" will start caring starting Monday.

but i think everyone on Mainstreet will need to carry one of these - I mean how much can you squeeze out of the taxpayer? :)

You are like Alex Lah with your intriguing comment about Monday. :D .......what happens then ? :D

post-6925-1272552227_thumb.jpg

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Correct - but to assume that yesterdays selloff was caused by Greece's or anyones problems shows "naive reasoning". If you checked one of my posts late last week - I warned about a sell-off early this week. So therefore how would I know about this weeks news?

This sell-off is over for the moment - but shall be continued in a few days on a much more significant level. Again, how would I know?

I will again post the beginning of the sell-off a day or so in advance.

Please post your predictions at least a month in advance.

:D

LOL :)

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I don't "predict" at all - I read "tea-leaves" as some might say.

Therefore - I do not project a month ahead (I could I just don't) - sometimes only 2-4 hours - but normally 2 days.

At this point - what will happen? By Monday we will have a substantial decline in progress.

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Hey flying.. good old USA is PAYING AGAIN ! :)

God you Americans must have such deep pockets :D

Yeah uncle sam has deep pockets with holes in the bottom :D But...........

Tis not a problem when you own a printing press & are the worlds reserve counterfeit currency.

Also helps having a military that is willing to trample any country that threatens to de-peg the counterfeit ... errrr.... Dollar from oil :D

Edited by flying
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"Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make. "

Whatever forecasts he makes I am sure he will agree that one needs to be nimble on one's feet , as you have said !

Yep!

The great dinvergence - massive dangers and huge opportunities, East leading West, old risky is the new safe and old safe is the new risky

Developed is regressing and emerging has developed...... - extreme divergence dominates the new normal

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" As a result too much time and effort seems to be spent on the reassessment in hindsight of major events - the collapse of the sub-prime market, the fall of Lehman Brothers, etc – to explain how they all really saw it coming but for some inexplicable reason forgot to act to prevent losses "

I would like to ask him why did the market react suddenly last night on the news of Greece when we have seen it coming for months ?

PLUS why does one country like Greece create that panic last night when 41 of the 50 US states are in the same position ? Why is no one panicking about that ?

" While Greece dominates the headlines, California's state debt is actually rated as more risky than Greek debt by at least two rating agencies."

becuase the business and investment cycle is so dominated by short termism that longer term fundamentals get totally lost - Scott showed some terrific big picture slides - Asian demographics were very interesting but also Kondratieff long waves, big trends, structural etc etc yet most of the investment media live day to day

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actually it not 41 its now 49 :)

Pretty bad eh?

You know what is grating here?

Now that they are underwater/under funded guess what is the first to be cut?

No not fat govt positions but services ....of course.

The bloated govt stays the same.

bloated government is being forced to cut i the worst affected areas - Ireland, Greece, Lithuania....but in the UK who's going to break the news to the electorate this side of the polls - ditto Aus.

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Scott is back in Thailand this week, giving investor briefings in Pattaya today and speaking at breakfast, lunch and evening events tomorrow.

Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make.

"fascinating and surprising forecasts"? don't you have it one size smaller Gambles? :)

actually TV readers might not have been too shocked (prognostications but no liability attaches for whatever you might choose to do with these suggestions)

Gold $ 2000 per oz - may or may not be short term pull backs

Sovereign default cycle has started and may run further

Commercial property and developing ewquiries buying oppps on dips but maybe not yet

Dollar least ugly of the majors

30% + chance of double dip

build cash ready for opportunities

Edited by Gambles
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actually TV readers might not have been too shocked (prognostications but no liability attaches for whatever you might choose to do with these suggestions)

Gold $ 2000 per oz - may or may not be short term pull backs

Sovereign default cycle has started and may run further

Commercial property and developing ewquiries buying oppps on dips but maybe not yet

Dollar least ugly of the majors

30% + chance of double dip

build cash ready for opportunities

Actually all of them seem quite reasonable to me...even cautious...

I just said so....again...recently about gold

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-and-Sil...87#entry3498387

Also agree surprisingly that the USD is the least ugly of the uglies but only because of the status it holds by force.

Agree again about the benefit of cash for deals both commercial & otherwise that are sure to come but.... As this drags on it may get harder & harder to have such amounts of cash. At least for folks like myself who do not own a printing press.

Edited by flying
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I don't "predict" at all - I read "tea-leaves" as some might say.

Therefore - I do not project a month ahead (I could I just don't) - sometimes only 2-4 hours - but normally 2 days.

At this point - what will happen? By Monday we will have a substantial decline in progress.

Sounds about right.

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Greece bailout eminent. Was that ever in doubt? Again weakness bought into without hesitation. Jobless down again . Earnings looking good and Midas still yapping away about 49 states in USA not realizing that was dealt with at Dow 6500. My guess is any major headline may start to be ignored soon .

Goldman Sachs jumps 2% and has a buy target some brokers $300 . Go figure..

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Scott is back in Thailand this week, giving investor briefings in Pattaya today and speaking at breakfast, lunch and evening events tomorrow.

Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make.

"fascinating and surprising forecasts"? don't you have it one size smaller Gambles? :)

actually TV readers might not have been too shocked (prognostications but no liability attaches for whatever you might choose to do with these suggestions)

1. Gold $ 2000 per oz - may or may not be short term pull backs

2. Sovereign default cycle has started and may run further

3. Commercial property and developing ewquiries buying oppps on dips

4. but maybe not yet

5. Dollar least ugly of the majors

30% + chance of double dip

6. build cash ready for opportunities

should they have been shocked?

1. i hear that since 30 years,

2. sovereign defaults occur since 150 years. cycles started 28 years ago,

3. buy on dips... 4. but may be not yet = fascinating crystal clear advice,

5. may be, may be not,

6. wisdom pure, valid since centuries but should read have cash, not build.

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Greece bailout eminent. Was that ever in doubt?

a lot of "anals" doubted, i did not. but i doubt that the greek chapter is closed with the bail-out. tiny country with a total number of inhabitants less than one of dozens of cities in China or India can't fulfill its promises to get its finances in a few years in order. that applies especially to Greeks who are unwilling to accept reforms such as paying taxes.

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Scott is back in Thailand this week, giving investor briefings in Pattaya today and speaking at breakfast, lunch and evening events tomorrow.

Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make.

"fascinating and surprising forecasts"? don't you have it one size smaller Gambles? :)

actually TV readers might not have been too shocked (prognostications but no liability attaches for whatever you might choose to do with these suggestions)

Gold $ 2000 per oz - may or may not be short term pull backs

Sovereign default cycle has started and may run further

Commercial property and developing ewquiries buying oppps on dips but maybe not yet

Dollar least ugly of the majors

30% + chance of double dip

build cash ready for opportunities

I believe Scott had a high cash holding in his fund waiting to invest / Has he recently reduced his cash and increased his Gold or other holdings ? and is he doing so at these levels ? If !! , or as many think when , there is a market correction Gold Miners will be hit along with everything else .

Did he express any views on Silver as an alternative and or other mining stocks such as Uranium ?

In the case of a USD fall mining stocks should be a good hedge as generally a weaker $ would mean higher mineral prices ?

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As for people bemoaning 'manipulation', I think they should wake up and realise theres little manipulation; if I have a very large account, and I hold a share, is it manipulation if I do all in my power to get it higher? If I, and others, know a struggling chinese trader has a huge underwater position in copper futures, and we push the market against him knowing he'll have to capitulate, is that manipulation? Or is it just business? Where is a line drawn?.... It is'nt, its fair game.

It also astounds me that when markets go down, retailers claim its manipulation. When markets go up, retailers claim its manipulation. :D

Badge

Do you remember your famous last words from September last year ? :)

Fed Facing Lawsuits, Criminal Complaints Over Market Manipulation

In addition to valiant congressional efforts for increased transparency, the Federal Reserve System and its cohorts are being targeted with criminal complaints and multiple lawsuits that attempt to shed to light on the central bank’s “bailouts” and its manipulation of the stock market, the precious-metals market, and more.

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/ec...et-manipulation

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I agree "manipulation" of the whole Market is essentially a "non-issue". Even "high frequency trading" is not and should not be illegal - it does little more than provide liquidity.

It is impossible to "regulate" human greed nor fear as long as it is done within legal limitations. If brokers see opportunities to make a profit - they will use their assets to exploit this opportunity.

What most people don't realize is that Markets-indices "oscillate" along a trend which can be understood - if you are willing to study and do not blame "Manipulators" for your inability to understand.

The Market is a "tough language" like Thai. Address the Market as a language - and - you just MAY find your "holy grail" eventually.

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I agree "manipulation" of the whole Market is essentially a "non-issue". Even "high frequency trading" is not and should not be illegal - it does little more than provide liquidity.

As to whether it is “ non – issue “ depends on your personal perception as to what constitutes a serious or less serious crime e.g. is insider trading not worth pursuing also ?

It is impossible to "regulate" human greed nor fear as long as it is done within legal limitations. If brokers see opportunities to make a profit - they will use their assets to exploit this opportunity.

It is impossible to “ regulate “ everyone who drives a car while drunk but you can still go to jail if they happen to catch YOU.

Insider trading is a crime and if you start to say its not serious, what will be the next crime that is not regarded as so serious ?

What most people don't realize is that Markets-indices "oscillate" along a trend which can be understood - if you are willing to study and do not blame "Manipulators" for your inability to understand.

The Market is a "tough language" like Thai. Address the Market as a language - and - you just MAY find your "holy grail" eventually.

A poor comparision .There is no dishonesty , greed or corruption in “ language “.

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Midas

I agree that "insider trading" should be illegal. I just feel that many people prefer to put blame - where there is none - rather than evaluating their own methods.

The Market in general is not manipulated - but "kept orderly". Stocks on an individual basis can be manipulated.

If you had studied both Thai and the Stock Market closely - perhaps you would understand the similarity in studying a "language".

In general people "study" the Market with technical analysis which is not what I am talking about (although I use it also to some extend).

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actually TV readers might not have been too shocked (prognostications but no liability attaches for whatever you might choose to do with these suggestions)

1. Gold $ 2000 per oz - may or may not be short term pull backs

2. Sovereign default cycle has started and may run further

3. Commercial property and developing equities buying opps on dips

4. but maybe not yet

5. Dollar least ugly of the majors

30% + chance of double dip

6. build cash ready for opportunities

should they have been shocked?

1. i hear that since 30 years,

2. sovereign defaults occur since 150 years. cycles started 28 years ago,

3. buy on dips... 4. but may be not yet = fascinating crystal clear advice,

5. may be, may be not,

6. wisdom pure, valid since centuries but should read have cash, not build.

Meine lieber Herr Naam,

1. Not from us you didn't - Scott and Martin have a combined experience of managing money for over 50 years but had never bought gold before 2002. There's quite some technical and fundamental support behind them jumping on board the $ 2000 per oz - it's not just a number that they've plucked out of the air. And if other people have been saying it (wrongly) for 30 years and then Martin & Scott join that crowd when the time is actually right,

i)is that their fault and

ii) isn't that what they're actually mean to do?? (paid to be right)

2. Yes of course they do and we talked about the default cycles that started in the '30's and the '80's ; the point is to exploit them this time. For instance our good friend Zorro either doesn't believe that these will happen or believes that if they do then they will not cause market dislocation or that if they do then Europe's problems won't impact the DJIA/S&P. I think that this is very dangerous thinking and that too many people are too complacent about the dangers that lie beneath.

3. Look for real substantial dips - a major pullback - not just the little hiatus of the last few days

5. I'm very comfortable with this call in the short term. Flying is absolutely right "only because of the status it holds by force" but it does hold this status and to think otherwise is just wishing, hoping and dreaming

6. Build cash positions is portfolio managment advice - have cash sounds to my twisted mind more like an incitement to rob banks or mug grannies which I'm sure isn't what you meant! :)

Did you see Scott on MoneyChannel yesterday? I thought that the interview came over well....there'll be more on there next week

Edited by Gambles
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Scott is back in Thailand this week, giving investor briefings in Pattaya today and speaking at breakfast, lunch and evening events tomorrow.

Given the current calamitous political and economic environment it will be fascinating to hear what surprising forecasts Scott will make.

"fascinating and surprising forecasts"? don't you have it one size smaller Gambles? :)

actually TV readers might not have been too shocked (prognostications but no liability attaches for whatever you might choose to do with these suggestions)

Gold $ 2000 per oz - may or may not be short term pull backs

Sovereign default cycle has started and may run further

Commercial property and developing equities buying oppps on dips but maybe not yet

Dollar least ugly of the majors

30% + chance of double dip

build cash ready for opportunities

I believe Scott had a high cash holding in his fund waiting to invest / Has he recently reduced his cash and increased his Gold or other holdings ? and is he doing so at these levels ? If !! , or as many think when , there is a market correction Gold Miners will be hit along with everything else .

Did he express any views on Silver as an alternative and or other mining stocks such as Uranium ?

In the case of a USD fall mining stocks should be a good hedge as generally a weaker $ would mean higher mineral prices ?

Scott is currently just below 1/3 cash (the biggest allocation to any single asset class), he's still holding reasonable gold - his profit taking on gold has been less aggressive than Martin and he would add on weakness. He's currently more inclined to physical gold but over the last 8 years has managed the allocation quite actively between bullion, miners and structureds. Greater weakness in structureds would incline to re-allocate more there. Also he's holding Jeremy Charlesworth's Moonraker Commodity Hedge fund which actively plays gold and all the other precious metals - don't forget about silver as you say and also platinum, palladium but for the interplay between these and also for rare earths (spot, contracts and miners) that's really Jeremy's area and Scott's happy that Jeremy is given the brief of exploiting those oopportunities because the volatility can be extreme at times and the changes so quick.

One of the more interesting questions is that with gold puffed up with last year's liquidity will it simply continue behaving like a risk asset or has that pattern started to break in a meaningful way recently (a few daily moves aren't enough to form a total view that gold is now inverse to stocks and positive to USD but every journey has to start with a first few steps)

Edited by Gambles
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Good piece by Pornnalat in The Bangkok Post - I think that the forum isn't allowed to link but I can post our press release based on it complete with references to yours truly, I'm afraid ! I'll also put this on the Baht threads too as it's relevant there as well -

One of the world’s leading global portfolio managers told The Bangkok Post this week that Thailand might fail to capitalise on its strengths to become one of the best investment markets in Asia if political risk continues to affect the country's economy.

Scott Campbell, an S&P award-winning fund manager, told Post writer Pornnalat Prachyakorn that foreign investors remain bullish on the growth of emerging markets including Asia -

''Asia along with other emerging markets will continue to be the best place for investment for the next 30 to 40 years. Over the past 10 years, the stock market in the west has done nothing while Asian stock markets have grown three-to-fourfold.'','' said Mr. Campbell, Managing Director of award-winning MitonOptimal Guernsey.

Khun Pornnalat reported that although Thailand's economic fundamentals are attractive, political risk is seen as the major obstacle on the path to a better economic position, which is highlighted by the relative performance of the Baht during the period since April last year, which has seen a significant rebound in Asian currencies.

''Currency is a barometer of political risk and the Thai Baht has been pretty much flat since last year [on a trade-weighted basis]'' he said. ''If the political risk gets sorted out, then you may see the Thai baht appreciate just to catch up with what other regional currencies which it has lagged during this time.'' adding that the fundamentals for the whole Asian region are still very positive but Thailand could lag because of political instability.

Paul Gambles, Managing Partner of leading research and advisory consultancy MBMG Group, said that observers such as Dr. Mark Mobius have noted that Thailand started to underperform the rest of the region in 2004, when political tensions first began to affect the economy -

''Thailand's economy has significantly underperformed over the last few years. This can be best be seen by comparing Thailand's economic growth, foreign-exchange rates and stock market valuations with those of comparable economies in Southeast Asia,'' he said, quoting research by John Sheehan of the consultancy Global Market Asia, that growth rates in a number of Asean neighbours had not only caught up, but had overtaken that of Thailand:

''If you take the superior GDP growth rate of a jurisdiction like the Philippines and apply this higher rate to Thailand's growth from 2005, it can be seen that by the end of 2008 Thailand's GDP would be somewhere between US$30 billion and $40 billion higher,''

One very positive sign for Asia, Mr. Campbell said, has been the growth in domestic consumption and markets and in intra-regional trade:

''The region is exporting within itself. This has shown that Asia is much less dependent on the west which is very positive,''

Asian demographics also are positive with the population distribution being similar to that of the United States Baby Boom era:

''An economy that has a bigger chunk of people at the bottom [age group] is in a much better shape than the economy that has bigger chunk of people at the top. India, for example, will progress through the baby boom stage and isn’t projected to reach the top heavy state that is starting to impact on the growth of the US today until 2050. In long term trends this is a theme very supportive of emerging markets growth for another 40 years or so.''

Scott also noted that other economic aspects are shifting from the West to the East –

“In the past, a high-risk portfolio was emerging market bonds, Japanese equities and developing market property. At the same time a low-risk one contained US government bonds, German blue-chip companies and UK property but now, the situation is completely reversed.''

Asian commercial property is particularly attractive in many cases with low gearing ratios and good yield carry. And while Asian growth may lead to higher interest rates, the strong carry differential will be partially protected by economic growth leading to higher rents and occupancy rates.

Scott Campbell remains bullish on gold as one of the allocated asset classes and based on a number of technical and fundamental factors expects gold prices to ultimately rise to between $2,000 and $2,500 an ounce. Gold has been one of the asset classes that has helped Scott to achieve exceptional outperformance over the last 10 years; a period in which the Dow Jones Industrial average has fallen by around 30% and the gold price has increased almost fivefold from its lowest point to current levels just below $1,200 an ounce.

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As for people bemoaning 'manipulation', I think they should wake up and realise theres little manipulation; if I have a very large account, and I hold a share, is it manipulation if I do all in my power to get it higher? If I, and others, know a struggling chinese trader has a huge underwater position in copper futures, and we push the market against him knowing he'll have to capitulate, is that manipulation? Or is it just business? Where is a line drawn?.... It is'nt, its fair game.

It also astounds me that when markets go down, retailers claim its manipulation. When markets go up, retailers claim its manipulation. :D

Badge

Do you remember your famous last words from September last year ? :)

'Noise' Midas.

Those are famous words, for any market participant, for hundreds of years, and they certainly wont be my last :D

I would suggest if you dont have any hands-on experience in financial markets your perhaps not in the best position to be offering views on them? If you simply have a keen interest in markets - as I suspect - then I would suggest you spend a few days reading the timeless and fabulous 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by Edwin Lefevre, which is the biography of Jesse Livermore.

Human nature and market mechanics havent changed in the 100 years since it was penned :D

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I would suggest you spend a few days reading the timeless and fabulous 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by Edwin Lefevre, which is the biography of Jesse Livermore.

Human nature and market mechanics havent changed in the 100 years since it was penned :D

I actually have that book...read it about 10 years ago.

Still have it & a few others I liked.....

Trader Vic...Methods of a Wall Street Master...Vic Sperandeo

When to Sell: Inside Strategies for Stock-Market Profits ..Justin Mamis

The Nature of Risk also by Justin Mamis

Understanding Wall Street ..Jeffrey B Little

Technical Analysis: A Personal Seminar by NYIF

Doubt I will ever look at them again :) but still have them

Edited by flying
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Well said Badge.

From my viewpoint - there is a longer term trendline - which most people will never be able to discern.

There is oscillation along this trendline which most experienced traders use to trade

And then - there is "noise" which inexperienced (or would be) traders "bemoan" as caused by "manipulators" or News on CNBC, Bloomberg or whatever.

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