Opportunity Comes Knocking

[CaptainARK1]

If Sept. 23 was 80 week cycle low, the first 2.5 week cycle low is due between now and Friday. If the lows of 2 weeks ago get broken by much after the next week has passed, $USD is "probably" toast.

Is that toast I smell?

My methodology, which I acknowledge may be incorrect, has a $USD botton centering on the last week of September+/- 4 weeks. The $USD made a low on the 23rd which I'm tentatively calling the 80 week cycle low, but a lower low today or next week could be the 80 week low instead. If it goes lower after that period it is no longer in my bottoming window (which may be wrong) so I would have no particular expectation of a trend reversal.

I smell something coming from the Fed. Don't know if it will be $ positive or $ negative.

Here's my continuing view as of minutes ago .....

Sept 23 low is what I posted recently as the presumed bottom - if it holds, the final low is within 1-3 hours from now. However if the low is taken out, its then yet another failed attempt to time this thing. An occupational hazard.

[CaptainARK1]

The wave 1, 2 count is dead. The low was just taken out.

So the 60-min. top of October 2 becomes wave 4 and the previous instance I called a "4" is now a "4th of 3"

sorry but that is the liability of elliottwave counting - along with my own liabilities

so if this is a 5th of 5th its got to end very soon? Yeah, dream on Cap'n

[CaptainARK1]

BOE meeting and Europe - Perhaps we will get a co-ordinated statement with the Fed to support the $

Asian Central Banks Intervene as Dollar Tumbles

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125498941145272887.html

FED doesn't really care about a strong dollar. As for the rest of the central banks' complaints, its a repeat of Dec 2004, the last time the dollar was dying and these cats were screaming for a new reserve currency. Now they are out in force again. Its just noise.

When the day comes that I see european stock markets open and CNBC reporters not say, "let's wait for US markets to open so we can get some direction" that will be the day I'll start listening to the noise and switch to euro or yen or aussie or kiwi or even Sterling if its not been adopted by the rupee.

[CaptainARK1]

I just opened a mini-Lot short GBPUSD @ 1.6101

[CaptainARK1]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

This very same pitchfork is giving gold some stiff trouble as the top boundary is again offering good resistance - Will update prices later.

Bubble rules apply to Gold just as they did to the Nasdaq in March 2000. Undertakers will go into a rip roaring bullmarket. Every single person I know, is Long gold and not only just simply Long, they've abandoned all caution, abs. sure its going to 2, 3 or 4K. None are using any kind of stops. And conversely everybody I know has abandoned the $. I'm the only dummy still thinking it will deliver the bacon.

Commercial gold hedgers, the smartest guys on the planet re:gold are 80% short Gold and have been for quite some time - its the large speculators and small traders that are in a frenzy about gold. When everybody has bought, who will then push it up? Gravity?

[CaptainARK1]

An interesting thing to note about Head and Shoulders patterns is...

The designer of the shampoo/cond is a market technical analyst who gave the product its name because its a reversal phenomenon. Always works? ... 80% accuracy rate with both the shampoo and the chart pattern.

Here's how your own DAX index and our own Thailand SET Index gave screaming HEAD & SHOULDER signals of a giant reversal top in the making in Oct 2007 just before the crash ..... worked perfectly.

DAX .......

Thailand SET ........

[teletiger]

The shorts covering?

Regards.

The head on that Dax chart looks decidedly alien to me. Probably klingon.

Regards.

Edited October 8, 2009 by teletiger

[CaptainARK1]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

The top boundary back then was at $1048.50. So if you took profit there, you'd have still done good because Gold has been stuck since then at fork resistance. Why the fork resistance? Because there is NO other resistance at this lofty level - Gold has never been here before, so its all whoosh, like a knife thru' butter, no resistance, so it can go to $10k?

Yeah, but there is one resistance and if it fires, its adios amigo - its that same suppy resistance I mentioned in the gold thread at $1032. Its crossed this, but has it really? ... $30 is small change for Gold rallies

Who are the shorts? .... the comm hedgers.

Save funeral expenses - the full position stop now = $1041 with a filter of your choice (0% or 1% to 3% below that)

[sokal]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

This very same pitchfork is giving gold some stiff trouble as the top boundary is again offering good resistance - Will update prices later.

Bubble rules apply to Gold just as they did to the Nasdaq in March 2000. Undertakers will go into a rip roaring bullmarket. Every single person I know, is Long gold and not only just simply Long, they've abandoned all caution, abs. sure its going to 2, 3 or 4K. None are using any kind of stops. And conversely everybody I know has abandoned the $. I'm the only dummy still thinking it will deliver the bacon.

Commercial gold hedgers, the smartest guys on the planet re:gold are 80% short Gold and have been for quite some time - its the large speculators and small traders that are in a frenzy about gold. When everybody has bought, who will then push it up? Gravity?

You still don't get it

All of the people you know that are long gold probably went and bought some paper gold like the GLD right ??? Maybe a COMEX contract or two ?? How many of those people had the balls to take physical delivery ??? Half or them ???

It would take no new buyers for the price of gold to go up, all it will take is a run on paper gold.

How did that 400 ton IMF short work for ya ? Its wansn't even naked. Now the IMF has no real money

[CaptainARK1]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

This very same pitchfork is giving gold some stiff trouble as the top boundary is again offering good resistance - Will update prices later.

Bubble rules apply to Gold just as they did to the Nasdaq in March 2000. Undertakers will go into a rip roaring bullmarket. Every single person I know, is Long gold and not only just simply Long, they've abandoned all caution, abs. sure its going to 2, 3 or 4K. None are using any kind of stops. And conversely everybody I know has abandoned the $. I'm the only dummy still thinking it will deliver the bacon.

Commercial gold hedgers, the smartest guys on the planet re:gold are 80% short Gold and have been for quite some time - its the large speculators and small traders that are in a frenzy about gold. When everybody has bought, who will then push it up? Gravity?

You still don't get it

All of the people you know that are long gold probably went and bought some paper gold like the GLD right ??? Maybe a COMEX contract or two ?? How many of those people had the balls to take physical delivery ??? Half or them ???

It would take no new buyers for the price of gold to go up, all it will take is a run on paper gold.

How did that 400 ton IMF short work for ya ? Its wansn't even naked. Now the IMF has no real money

>>>>>> How many of those people had the balls to take physical delivery <<<<<<<

All - every single one of them. No, none trade GLD or gold futures, but every single one of the investors I know has bought physical gold, be it jewelry items, coins, bars, whatever.

As for your other statement, "It would take no new buyers for the price of gold to go up, all it will take is a run on paper gold" .....

that is just simply so deep and abstruse a concept that I would have to refer you to the chauffeur story for an answer ....

the chauffeur asked his look-alike boss if he could stand in for him at the next university lecture since he had for the past so many years listened to every single one of the lectures and knew the subject inside out. OK said the boss, I'll just hang out at the back of the lecture hall and let you do your thing.

So at the lecture, everything was going well, until one fellow named sokal asked an abstruse question that was never asked before. Without missing a beat, the chauffeur responded, "yeah, good question, its so easy that even my chauffeur there in the back of the hall can answer it"

[CaptainARK1]

Here's the attribution:

All analysis and opinions by CaptainARK1.

Nonsense.

Why not just say 'this is what EWI think'?

Your only kidding yourself, and its a little saddening if I may say.

Perhaps you should take a while to think about what it is your trying to achieve?

Why ask me anything then, if you already made up your mind that it is the way you think it is?

Make some calls yourself or talk to my ex-wife - you two will get along well.

For starters, "state your call on the Dollar Index here and do it NOW - with target or other analysis - present your complete chart analysis"

No excuses, don't be a trading sissy, just do it. Put your neck on the line.

Im still at a loss why you would portray EWI's analysis as your own.

Frankly whatever $s do, I just dont see the point; if the $ does rise, its a rare victory for EWI. If it falls, your backing of EWI was wrong and/or your view of $s was erroneous.

Its clear people that seem to know you at TV, dont hold you in very high regard, and I from what Ive seen its understandable.

As for showing my 'analysis'... when I mentioned buying $s on a thread I called Global Financial Markets, several weeks ago, you commented on it, before you even started this thread.

It seems to me perhaps you have a failing memory, because if you cant recall previously responding to my Dollar views, perhaps you also cant recall first seeing your Dollar argument, set forth by EWI in one of their reports.

This is the only sane conclusion I can come to.

Now can we have your complete current US Dollar analysis with chart both in daily and realtime and YOUR call? No more excuses, please.

[Firefan]

He he! Lovely to see Harmonica/capt back in action here!

The start of the thread has him shorting gold at around $930 but I am sure he has changed his mind/adjusted that many times as gold marched on - that is part of the charm - I admit i have not read all 8 pages of this

Also I have not checked the full thread on his USD predictions - except that he was bullish on the USD at the start of thread - USD have weakened further.

Will gold adjust down/USD adjust up again at a given point in time? Surely - at least temporarly - the HARD part is the TIMING.

Cheers!

[sokal]

Still waiting ......

Gold at $1,046 - just a hair from the top boundary of the same pitchfork shown in Gold thread - no changes to the pitchfork, just updated prices.

I'm not trading Gold but this would be a good take profit point for gold traders as the fork has been working well for some time now.

Can we also get a major reversal here = reversal in $ too ????

This very same pitchfork is giving gold some stiff trouble as the top boundary is again offering good resistance - Will update prices later.

Bubble rules apply to Gold just as they did to the Nasdaq in March 2000. Undertakers will go into a rip roaring bullmarket. Every single person I know, is Long gold and not only just simply Long, they've abandoned all caution, abs. sure its going to 2, 3 or 4K. None are using any kind of stops. And conversely everybody I know has abandoned the $. I'm the only dummy still thinking it will deliver the bacon.

Commercial gold hedgers, the smartest guys on the planet re:gold are 80% short Gold and have been for quite some time - its the large speculators and small traders that are in a frenzy about gold. When everybody has bought, who will then push it up? Gravity?

You still don't get it

All of the people you know that are long gold probably went and bought some paper gold like the GLD right ??? Maybe a COMEX contract or two ?? How many of those people had the balls to take physical delivery ??? Half or them ???

It would take no new buyers for the price of gold to go up, all it will take is a run on paper gold.

How did that 400 ton IMF short work for ya ? Its wansn't even naked. Now the IMF has no real money

>>>>>> How many of those people had the balls to take physical delivery <<<<<<<

All - every single one of them. No, none trade GLD or gold futures, but every single one of the investors I know has bought physical gold, be it jewelry items, coins, bars, whatever.

As for your other statement, "It would take no new buyers for the price of gold to go up, all it will take is a run on paper gold" .....that is just simply so deep and abstruse a concept that I would have to refer you to the chauffeur story for an answer ....

the chauffeur asked his look-alike boss if he could stand in for him at the next university lecture since he had for the past so many years listened to every single one of the lectures and knew the subject inside out. OK said the boss, I'll just hang out at the back of the lecture hall and let you do your thing.

So at the lecture, everything was going well, until one fellow named sokal asked an abstruse question that was never asked before. Without missing a beat, the chauffeur responded, "yeah, good question, its so easy that even my chauffeur there in the back of the hall can answer it"

Have you hired a lawyer to look through the contract details of the GLD ETF ?

If the GLD is hitting YTD highs then somebody is buying allot of paper gold, maybe not anyone you know, but guess in your books, holding 30 grand in GLD with a wedding ring on your finger is considered taking physical delivery:rolleyes:

This is actually fairly simple......

Do you believe the GLD ETF can deliver physical in a days notice ??? YES OR NO

Edited October 9, 2009 by sokal

[sokal]

He he! Lovely to see Harmonica/capt back in action here!

The start of the thread has him shorting gold at around $930 but I am sure he has changed his mind/adjusted that many times as gold marched on - that is part of the charm - I admit i have not read all 8 pages of this

Also I have not checked the full thread on his USD predictions - except that he was bullish on the USD at the start of thread - USD have weakened further.

Will gold adjust down/USD adjust up again at a given point in time? Surely - at least temporarly - the HARD part is the TIMING.

Cheers!

I don't know why he is picking a fight with gold, it is something he clearly knows nothing about. There is not one mention of fundamental reasons to be bearish on gold in this thread. I have nothing against some day trader posting his deals but he tries to make gold bugs look like idiots and that pisses some people off. He should just dick around shorting financials.

Edited October 9, 2009 by sokal

[CaptainARK1]

I just opened a mini-Lot short GBPUSD @ 1.6101

Trade (3 posiions all minis) will be closed at the open of next week regardless whether market continues in my favor or not. Busy with other stuff, can't monitor.

profit will be approx. 215-250 pips for the 3 positions depending on where I get closed out.

The trade was in any event mini-Lots. Will go to full Lots again sometime next week on any new trades.

[CaptainARK1]

The thread calls are very close to coming to fruition - within 14 days from monday, October 12-09, the entire thread call taken as ONE concept will be 100% accurate.

In essence its US dollar versus ALL markets (Gold, Silver, other commodities, stock Indexes, real estate et al.), but not Yen, which dances to a different beat, one that has had me with it for a looong time.

Gold top and $ bottom very close. As before, special note on Gold is that the entire move out of the symmetrical triangle was=is a bulltrap - not just any old bulltrap, rather THE EPIC trap. As soon as Gold falls back into the triangle it will confirm the entire rally as FALSE, thus proving my point.

You'll see. If wrong, admission here will follow.

[CaptainARK1]

but in the meantime while we wait for Gold and $ outcome what did I get right/wrong?

Sterling/Dollar ------- correct (Post #1)

Sterling/Yen ------- correct (Post #2)

Yen cash holding ------- correct (many mentions)

Vix breakout ------- correct (Post #89)

Japan's Nikkei ------- correct (Post #109)

Singapore ------- correct

China ------- correct

Crude Oil ------- correct ?? (Post #166) .. final confirm within 14 days

Corp. bonds investment grade ------- correct (Post #119)

----------------------------------------------------------------

London Footsie -------- wrong (Post #1)

Thailand Set50 futures -------- wrong (different thread)

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Footsie and SET50 wrongs are mitigated by a 70% capture of the entire move thus far upto the point I close my Set50 Long - and even with a new marginal top possible next week, a 70% strike hit is even by Buffett's standards pretty good. But, I'm shooting for 90%+ accuracy of calling a top, so there is plenty of room for improvement in the future.

Note: I only trade currencies and SET50 futures, so the others are pure calls only.

[CaptainARK1]

this is a special note to my stalker here ...... more attacks forthcoming? .... all are welcome

>>>> SET < 628 will get me interested. Bummer right now as I had to switch brokers and get setup with a new one, so no realtime just yet. In any event if Dollar/Baht cannot cross 35+ easily it would be suicidal to short SET50. So this is a wait and see as SET is very Dollar married and the Baht has raped just about every major currency except the Yen. (see Post 1) <<<<

is any further explanation necessary?

but here it is anyway ........

SET50 futures #trades is low because I only short down days which have been very, very few. On up days, esp. gap up days, I don't play. Same as my currency trading style with one significant difference. In my currency trades I'm with the correctly called TREND direction for Sterling = going with the river. But in trading SET50 futures I'm going against the river, against the extant trend which is UP. Why would I violate such an important rule, "Do NOT trade against the trend unless you want to die!?" .... Because with SET especially, traders should have learned but never do, that when SET turns instantly on a dime a months' gains are wiped out in a matter of 2 hours or 1 day. Being out early rather than late is the smart thing to do. You'll see, very soon.

[lannarebirth]

Do you use stop losses or hedging strategies Cap? Trade around a core position? The reason I ask is, some of these are ranging a bit far from where you started. Not for an investor perhaps but certainly for a trader.

[PCA]

I just opened a mini-Lot short GBPUSD @ 1.6101

Trade (3 posiions all minis) will be closed at the open of next week regardless whether market continues in my favor or not. Busy with other stuff, can't monitor.

profit will be approx. 215-250 pips for the 3 positions depending on where I get closed out.

The trade was in any event mini-Lots. Will go to full Lots again sometime next week on any new trades.

sorry to say Capn't but this statement alone declares how little you know about trading with real money on the line. You will never make serious coins with that attitude. But since it's all paper trading it doesn't really matter in the end.

You have 20 losers which you cut and then you have one (claimed) winner and you cut it as well mamma mia, hehehe

Edited October 10, 2009 by PCA

[sokal]

The thread calls are very close to coming to fruition - within 14 days from monday, October 12-09, the entire thread call taken as ONE concept will be 100% accurate.

In essence its US dollar versus ALL markets (Gold, Silver, other commodities, stock Indexes, real estate et al.), but not Yen, which dances to a different beat, one that has had me with it for a looong time.

Gold top and $ bottom very close. As before, special note on Gold is that the entire move out of the symmetrical triangle was=is a bulltrap - not just any old bulltrap, rather THE EPIC trap. As soon as Gold falls back into the triangle it will confirm the entire rally as FALSE, thus proving my point.

You'll see. If wrong, admission here will follow.

I hope you are right, then I can buy more gold and silver. I will buy silver at $16 or less and gold at $970 or less. Somebody on Zerohedge was joking that Robby Prechter is going broke shorting stocks and long the dollar. I wonder if there is any truth to that.

[sokal]

this is a special note to my stalker here ...... more attacks forthcoming? .... all are welcome

>>>> SET < 628 will get me interested. Bummer right now as I had to switch brokers and get setup with a new one, so no realtime just yet. In any event if Dollar/Baht cannot cross 35+ easily it would be suicidal to short SET50. So this is a wait and see as SET is very Dollar married and the Baht has raped just about every major currency except the Yen. (see Post 1) <<<<

is any further explanation necessary?

but here it is anyway ........

SET50 futures #trades is low because I only short down days which have been very, very few. On up days, esp. gap up days, I don't play. Same as my currency trading style with one significant difference. In my currency trades I'm with the correctly called TREND direction for Sterling = going with the river. But in trading SET50 futures I'm going against the river, against the extant trend which is UP. Why would I violate such an important rule, "Do NOT trade against the trend unless you want to die!?" .... Because with SET especially, traders should have learned but never do, that when SET turns instantly on a dime a months' gains are wiped out in a matter of 2 hours or 1 day. Being out early rather than late is the smart thing to do. You'll see, very soon.

The SET has some of the lowest P/E valuations in Asia. I see no logical reason to attempt to short it. Why not short the Heng Sang ? The SET is not a hot market, its not 1996.

[CaptainARK1]

Do you use stop losses or hedging strategies Cap? Trade around a core position? The reason I ask is, some of these are ranging a bit far from where you started. Not for an investor perhaps but certainly for a trader.

No, no hedging, never done it, maybe never will.

Stops are closing based - if away from comp., then 3% below/above sub-wave. Used trailing stops only twice, don't like them.

Every trade = core = multiple positions

If I'm still alive and Dollar Index honors my anal-ysis out of pity mostly given the now 4th or 5th attempt to catch the bottom, you'll see mini-Lot trades lasting for months and months and months, but full-Lot trades get closed out within days based purely on 60-min. or 4H timeframe.

[CaptainARK1]

First of all the, $USD 3% bullish sentiment number that apparently you and EWI came up with simultaneously, undoubtedly through independant means, is bullshit.

I'm not saying you won't pull that number out from somewhere, but when I asked a friend last week (who is a Market Vane subscriber) $USD sentiment stood at 41%.

So nice of you to assume that its a Market Vane # and then shit all over it.

The territory is already yours, I'm just passin thru, not interested in it or the females therein, so no need to spray daily.

Its not Market Vane, not AAII, not Univ. of Mich., not ChrisCraft Investors Intelligence, not the Crowd sentiment poll from Ned Davis. I wouldn't call any of these services bullshit, but I wouldn't use any of them and don't.

The one I'm referring to costs $2k - $2.5k in subscription fees and comes free of charge to my mailbox approx. once a week (not from EWI) and usually days after the original release, which is OK with me since sentiment analysis is not an exact timing machine, so 88% bulls, 92%, 94% readings are all good, but the chart is the timing engine, the former just giving good backup reversal odds. Its does not belong to EWI, although they are a subscriber.

Why is it good? IMO, the Dollar Index March'08 bottom, the March'09 top and heyhey the current bottom (?) have been odds++ exquisitely by this sentiment indicator. So realtime test of it again underway right now.

Find it.

[CaptainARK1]

This is not a call, just my thought-ing. The call(s) have already been made and stand as-is, errors and all.

Dow Jones just made a new intraday high ....

$SPX almost there ......

I think this is the last move up, wherever it ends, that's the final top for years.

Dow Transports fell from Sept 16 to Oct 2 in a nice, clear 5 wave move. This is the first 5-wave drop since the March low. So if the top is not exceeded, this index is already suggesting the party is over as early as Sept 16. So if this turns out to be the scenario after-the-fact, then it really is the TRANSPORTS that called the continuation of JAWS.

And of course, as I've already shown in this thread, topmost honors goes to China for being the first market to decisively turn into continuation of JAWS. China now doing a mini-wave 2 while others catch up to her.

One thing is quite sure - if $SPX breaks 1,018 its Adios.

Could I be so bold as to suggest a break of 1061 and 1046 as semi-adios?

[Naam]

I just opened a mini-Lot short GBPUSD @ 1.6101

[Naam]

The head on that Dax chart looks decidedly alien to me. Probably klingon.

only poor people and non-warriors gamble at stock markets

[Naam]

The thread calls are very close to coming to fruition - within 14 days from monday, October 12-09, the entire thread call taken as ONE concept will be 100% accurate.

Edited October 26, 2009 by Naam

[AlexLah]

Why you laffin like hungry hyena Naam?

Captain Sparky is the best and brightest!

Go get them Sparky!!!!!

[Naam]

Why you laffin like hungry hyena Naam?

Captain Sparky is the best and brightest!

Go get them Sparky!!!!!

i iss laffin bekos i follo adwise of Kaptain und lose monney too mut witch iss a good zing bekos i no like have monney too mut