Is The Us$ Destined To Collapse?

[Abrak]

The trigger for the dollar carry/ risk trade is incredibly easy to see - and that is the revaluation of the Yuan/RMB... The game has already been played and we already know who has won and lost.

WE?

we=those who know. you and me do not belong to that group

Well when you play a game and the loser admits he has lost it would all seem over to me.

The BoT says that sterilization is a policy of bearing 'costs' relative to maintaining the 'benefits' of a competitive currency. In other words it is a subsidy aimed at maintaining an export led recovery to the economy. That is fine but of course your willingness to bear 'costs' is simply an offer to hedge funds to accumulate 'profits'. Until the RMB/Yuan is revalued it is a one way bet. Either the BoT has ever increasing costs or it lets the currency appreciate at which point, without an RMB/Yuan revaluation, it is much less competitive. Either way for the BoT there are 'costs'.

US$50bn (in baht) spent on suppressing your currency is a lot (certainly considerably more than the BoT spent defending its peg in 1997). The currency is appreciating against the US$ in any case. How can they possible unwind that position without the baht appreciating? So as 'they' - the BoT - have admitted they lose and 'they' - the hedge funds - know they are winning and have won, I rather assumed it would be a bit silly to say 'I' know when 'they' already know.

And BTW, the whole point of the game is that noone 'knows' what China is going to do with its peg and when as it can do what it likes when it likes because it has a closed capital account.

[badge]

DXY has support at 75.6, 74.5 and 74

Low thus far has been 74.18 and there has been a 200pip bounce.

Close to my last cited support, but close enough?

[hhgz]

"China has made US$50bn by converting US$1trn USTs into Euro."

If you're posting that China has sold one trillion USD of treasury notes and bought Euros, it's not true. I don't know where you got that information, but it is hilariously wrong.

[delmersomsri]

I voted YES! Hope I'm wrong as I'm retired and on a fixed income of US$. I've read as much as my eyes and brain can handle about the world's current financial problems and I'm approaching overload. Our economy cannot repay the enormous debt that our government is creating. We cannot even pay the interest. WOULD YOU LOAN MONEY TO SOMEONE WHO YOU KNOW CANNOT REPAY YOU?! When the world wakes up to that fact then the dollar is doomed for a very deep devaluation. It's been predicted that this will happen in 12 to 18 months. Where the Thai baht will be at that time is a big question mark in my mind. I'm racing to get the required amount of money into my Thai account before the dollar devalues so that I can fulfill my visa requirement and be able to remain here in Thailand if I choose to do so. Watching gold prices but it is outpacing my ability to accumulate much. Could write pages about this subject but I don't want to bore our members and my crystal ball is a little foggy. How is yours?

[flying]

I voted YES! Hope I'm wrong as I'm retired and on a fixed income of US$. I've read as much as my eyes and brain can handle about the world's current financial problems and I'm approaching overload. Our economy cannot repay the enormous debt that our government is creating. We cannot even pay the interest. WOULD YOU LOAN MONEY TO SOMEONE WHO YOU KNOW CANNOT REPAY YOU?! When the world wakes up to that fact then the dollar is doomed for a very deep devaluation. It's been predicted that this will happen in 12 to 18 months. Where the Thai baht will be at that time is a big question mark in my mind. I'm racing to get the required amount of money into my Thai account before the dollar devalues so that I can fulfill my visa requirement and be able to remain here in Thailand if I choose to do so. Watching gold prices but it is outpacing my ability to accumulate much. Could write pages about this subject but I don't want to bore our members and my crystal ball is a little foggy. How is yours?

Crystal balls are all at Naam's house & his dog keeps burying them

Best to just use your eyes & ears & then your brain to try & rationally as possible digest this irrational time.

Like you, I do not want to be heavy in USD. I went the PM route a year ago with 50% of liquid assets.

If I see the US government continues down this road I will try to get further out of the USD.

At least as far as is logically possible as I still need to function in USD for now.

Edited December 9, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

"China has made US$50bn by converting US$1trn USTs into Euro."

If you're posting that China has sold one trillion USD of treasury notes and bought Euros, it's not true. I don't know where you got that information, but it is hilariously wrong.

if some posts China sold one trillion of UST he forgot to take the pills his shrink prescribed

[flying]

"China has made US$50bn by converting US$1trn USTs into Euro."

If you're posting that China has sold one trillion USD of treasury notes and bought Euros, it's not true. I don't know where you got that information, but it is hilariously wrong.

if some posts China sold one trillion of UST he forgot to take the pills his shrink prescribed

Me thinks your both on pills already & need to go back & read Abraks post in the context intended

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Us-Destined-...52#entry3168552

Edited December 9, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

"China has made US$50bn by converting US$1trn USTs into Euro."

If you're posting that China has sold one trillion USD of treasury notes and bought Euros, it's not true. I don't know where you got that information, but it is hilariously wrong.

if some posts China sold one trillion of UST he forgot to take the pills his shrink prescribed

Me thinks your both on pills already & need to go back & read Abraks post in the context intended

i did not refer to Abrak's but to hhgz's post. therefore my claim (shrink/pills) is valid!

[flying]

i did not refer to Abrak's but to hhgz's post. therefore my claim (shrink/pills) is valid!

Kor Tort you are correct

[Naam]

although a lot of analgloomdoomers forecast the demise of the dollar i bought day before yesterday (after months) again a USD-denominated bond - nom $500k of PdVSA '17 ISIN XS0294364103 - it goes without saying that i hedged my currency exposure 100%, i.e. USD vs. USD.

[flying]

i bought day before yesterday (after months) again a USD-denominated bond - nom $500k of PdVSA '17 ISIN XS0294364103 - it goes without saying that i hedged my currency exposure 100%, i.e. USD vs. USD.

Good Luck with that. You will probably be fine as the USD has a few kicks left Im sure.

What kind of Int% do you get on something like that?

Just curious & you need not say.

[Naam]

i bought day before yesterday (after months) again a USD-denominated bond - nom $500k of PdVSA '17 ISIN XS0294364103 - it goes without saying that i hedged my currency exposure 100%, i.e. USD vs. USD.

Good Luck with that. You will probably be fine as the USD has a few kicks left Im sure. What kind of Int% do you get on something like that? Just curious & you need not say.

i don't need any luck as far as the dollar is concerned as i fully hedged it. therefore it does not matter what the dollar does vs. any currency. my only risk is the debtor but that risk i consider appropriately covered by the risk/reward ratio (no risk no reward!). current yield is 10.38% and yield to maturity (feb 2017) is 18.45%, interest payable semi-anually. other positive aspects are that the bonds are issued under U.S. law and debtor Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. has assets in the U.S. e.g. a fistful of refineries and the service station chain Citgo.

by the way, U.S. citizens/persons are not allowed to buy this bond unless they apply and receive permission from the appropriate authorities to which they have to prove not only a certain net worth but also that they are experienced and seasoned investors. i therefore advise all american friends to swallow the saliva instead of letting it drip out of the corners of their mouths.

[flying]

i bought day before yesterday (after months) again a USD-denominated bond - nom $500k of PdVSA '17 ISIN XS0294364103 - it goes without saying that i hedged my currency exposure 100%, i.e. USD vs. USD.

Good Luck with that. You will probably be fine as the USD has a few kicks left Im sure. What kind of Int% do you get on something like that? Just curious & you need not say.

i don't need any luck as far as the dollar is concerned as i fully hedged it. therefore it does not matter what the dollar does vs. any currency. my only risk is the debtor but that risk i consider appropriately covered by the risk/reward ratio (no risk no reward!). current yield is 10.38% and yield to maturity (feb 2017) is 18.45%, interest payable semi-anually. other positive aspects are that the bonds are issued under U.S. law and debtor Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. has assets in the U.S. e.g. a fistful of refineries and the service station chain Citgo.

by the way, U.S. citizens/persons are not allowed to buy this bond unless they apply and receive permission from the appropriate authorities to which they have to prove not only a certain net worth but also that they are experienced and seasoned investors. i therefore advise all american friends to swallow the saliva instead of letting it drip out of the corners of their mouths.

That is a very good return in anyone's book.

Yes I was surprised when I looked up PdVSA & saw that

Petroleos de Venezuela S.A.

Interesting too what you say the rules are regarding citizens not buying.

Also not meant as a dig as I know nothing about such things but when I was looking

up bonds etc. about that Petroleos I happened on this article out today.

U.S. debt to fall to junk bond status?Moody's signals concern U.K. also could lose AAA rating

Any cause for concern or just sensationalism?

Edited December 11, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

U.S. debt to fall to junk bond status?Moody's signals concern U.K. also could lose AAA rating. Any cause for concern or just sensationalism?

the U.S. indirectly controls the rating agencies Poor Standards and Moody Blues. only the british Bitch is semi independent. it would be a miracle if U.S. debt is downgraded. that U.K. will lose its triple A is a done deal in my [not so] humble view. it's only a matter of time.

[flying]

the U.S. indirectly controls the rating agencies Poor Standards and Moody Blues. only the british Bitch is semi independent. it would be a miracle if U.S. debt is downgraded. that U.K. will lose its triple A is a done deal in my [not so] humble view. it's only a matter of time.

That makes perfect sense when I think back to how Moody did not downgrade AIG as heavily as they should have back when they surely deserved it.

[Naam]

Interesting too what you say the rules are regarding citizens not buying.

but that makes sense Flying! patriotic Americans are supposed to buy CDs and shitty mutual stock funds instead of investing abroad. the latter is done by renowned and esteemed financial institutions such as Bare Sterns, Mary Lynch, Lehman Brothels, Goldman Sucks, BoA and a few dozen others

p.s. soon O'Bama will knock on your door, confiscate all your gold and use it to buy some warlords in various provinces of Afghanistan or perhaps to finance an israeli attack on "Eyeran". but neither gold nor fiat can solve the mess in "Eyerak".

[flying]

but that makes sense Flying! patriotic Americans are supposed to buy CDs and shitty mutual stock funds instead of investing abroad. the latter is done by renowned and esteemed financial institutions such as Bare Sterns, Mary Lynch, Lehman Brothels, Goldman Sucks, BoA and a few dozen others

p.s. soon O'Bama will knock on your door, confiscate all your gold and use it to buy some warlords in various provinces of Afghanistan or perhaps to finance an israeli attack on "Eyeran". but neither gold nor fiat can solve the mess in "Eyerak".

Funny as the first thing I thought is they probably consider the same as how they dont allow sporting figures to bet for or against their own teams

As for Zobama he can have my metals but they will collect all the copper clad lead first

But what you say about sending cash to warlords is not far from the mark.

Remember back in FEB 2007 the story about 4 Billion in cash that went into Baghdad Iraq on a pallet?

Something like over 300 tons

Edited December 11, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

the U.S. indirectly controls the rating agencies Poor Standards and Moody Blues. only the british Bitch is semi independent. it would be a miracle if U.S. debt is downgraded. that U.K. will lose its triple A is a done deal in my [not so] humble view. it's only a matter of time.

That makes perfect sense when I think back to how Moody did not downgrade AIG as heavily as they should have back when they surely deserved it.

a few years ago Iran got the rating of investment grade which was justified as the country never defaulted on any of its debt and the mullahs even paid every single penny of the debt incurred by the Sha-in-Shah the Light of the Aryans. coupons were always transferred 8-10 days before due date! no other debtor is doing that.

a couple of weeks later the agencies were forced to withdraw the rating. even british Fitch caved in after some time. Downing Street #10 must have called. since then Iran is "n.r." = not rated.

[Naam]

But what you say about sending cash to warlords is not far from the mark. Remember back in FEB 2007 the story about 4 Billion in cash that went into Baghdad Iraq on a pallet? Something like over 300 tons

the story is true. however the pallet did not contain dollars but freshly printed "New Iraqi Dinars".

[flying]

But what you say about sending cash to warlords is not far from the mark. Remember back in FEB 2007 the story about 4 Billion in cash that went into Baghdad Iraq on a pallet? Something like over 300 tons

the story is true. however the pallet did not contain dollars but freshly printed "New Iraqi Dinars".

I thought it was USD C notes 100's

I also remember a 12 billion payout of Iraqi cash too

Ah war what is it good for $$$$$

[AlexLah]

The US flew nearly $12bn in shrink-wrapped $100 bills into Iraq, then distributed the cash with no proper control over who was receiving it and how it was being spent.

The staggering scale of the biggest transfer of cash in the history of the Federal Reserve has been graphically laid bare by a US congressional committee.

In the year after the invasion of Iraq in 2003 nearly 281 million notes, weighing 363 tonnes, were sent from New York to Baghdad for disbursement to Iraqi ministries and US contractors. Using C-130 planes, the deliveries took place once or twice a month with the biggest of $2,401,600,000 on June 22 2004, six days before the handover.

Full article here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/08/usa.iraq1

[Naam]

Full article here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/08/usa.iraq1

full of usual Guardian and Telegraph bullshit.

[AlexLah]

Please provide a link to an article that proves it were Iraqi Dinars.

I have some other pic's on my home pc that clearly show crisp USD........wrapped in palatastick

[Naam]

please give me a valid reason to prove anything to you.

[AlexLah]

Perhaps you could prove it to yourself by posting any link to such story?

[badge]

I recall the story was USD?

The Guardian and the Telegraph are the most diametrically opposed newspapers in Britain.

Theyre both respected broadsheets however.

[AlexLah]

Yes they were newly printed crisp USD, thrown around like confetti.

http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseacti...VideoID=9304388

But hey who cares about 12 Billion these days, peanuts.......

Cheers all, it's weekend!

[neil324]

please give me a valid reason to prove anything to you.

Ok so your full of shit then.

[Naam]

please give me a valid reason to prove anything to you.

Ok so your full of shit then.

you logic is indeed admirable! do you extrapolate the amount of shit that is in your head to anybody else?

[Naam]

I recall the story was USD? The Guardian and the Telegraph are the most diametrically opposed newspapers in Britain.

Theyre both respected broadsheets however.

from what i see both have degenerated over the last decade just a tat above "The Sun".