Is The Us$ Destined To Collapse?

[churchill]

found it

Kingsgate Thai unit postpones IPO to Q4/2011

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/16/kingsgate-thailand-ipo-idUSWNAS102020110216

[BuckarooBanzai]

We continue to let the same people who just about destroyed the world economy play their games. After all, they get reimbursed for their losses to keep things going anyway right? Two decades back Malaysia told the money manipulators to screw off and turn in all off-shore ringgit to the Malaysian Banks or lose it. What a set of kahonies Mahathir had! It worked from what I observed and the Malaysian economy remained stable. The US debt as a percentage of GNP is a whole lot better then many of other developed countries (you know who you are) and Thailand as an investment base has lost much of it's attraction because people with different shirt colors control the stability. So who is making all this stuff up unless it is someone who has particular motives and the money to make the news?

[badge]

THB has traded pretty inline with the rest of its regional peers, so as someone mentioned its more of a regional/USD driven affair. However I also saw more talk of 'printing presses' which always makes me smile.

Ultimately any free-market cant be fought by local governmtnets, please see BoE ERM debacle. Current CNY debacle is only possible due to the fact its not a free-market. BoT can do what they like; if the 'market' wanted the THB any higher/lower it would move it, and if you believe THB should be any higher/lower bet on it and make a fortune.

Thanks for that spectacular insight Buckaroo. Dr. Mahathir is a real gem, he commented in his younger days that all westerners are pirates and if he had his way he would decapitate the lot of them.

[Naam]

The US debt as a percentage of GNP is a whole lot better then many of other developed countries

this percentage is irrelevant and window dressing only. the only thing that counts is the ratio of debt and proceeds. in this respect the U.S. is in good company but on the bottom of developed/industrialised countries.

[Naam]

However I also saw more talk of 'printing presses' which always makes me smile.

not to forget "fiat money" which is "doomed"

[flying]

New low for USD

[12DrinkMore]

http://www.bloomberg...chana-says.html

The Bank of Thailand is willing to let the baht appreciate to help contain inflation, and only plans to intervene if the currency rises at a faster pace than its regional peers, Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee signaled.The baht has advanced 7.7 percent in the past year against the dollar, the third-best performance among Asia's 10 major currencies excluding the yen, as overseas investors purchased shares and government bonds to benefit from economic expansion. It pared earlier losses after Atchana's remarks today.

"A strong baht helps decrease inflation, especially imported inflation," Atchana said in an interview at her office in Bangkok. "We didn't resist the trend" of Asian currency appreciation, she said.

Well, I guess that won't please all our expats, who are hoping for some miracle. OH, but what about the EXPORTS??? Surely Thailand cannot afford to do this?

"If your currency appreciates, I don't see any reason why we have to resist that because it helps to reduce the inflation rate of countries in the region," Atchana said. "We will not lose competitiveness because of the exchange rate."

So we seem to be looking at a more or less informal agreement amongst the Asian countries that all Asian currencies will gradually appreciate against the USD. Which is along the line that Geithner is taking, although he would probably like it to happen more quickly. And I am not sure exactly what he is ultimately trying to achieve.

Edited April 22, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[KunMatt]

Last time the dollar dropped below 30 Baht 6 months ago didn't the government say they would closely monitor this and take action as a low dollar would negatively affect exports? It slowly crept back up to 31. Now it's dropping fast again and all I read is that this is good news from the officials and the Thai economy is in amazing shape no matter what happens in the rest of the world (Japan/America/Europe)..

Seeing as Thailand is still a 3rd world country which gets a large majoritory of it's income from exports and tourism, I can't imagine that letting the Dollar go down to 25 Baht again would be a good thing.

I wouldn't care except my precious £s are balanced out with any Dollar losses, so even whenever there's good news with the British economy and my money goes up against the Dollar it stays the same against the Baht. If the Dollar tanks to 25 then GBPs will never be above 50 Baht again!!

If the default currency changed from Dollars to Euros for example, how would this affect the exchange rate of GBP to Baht? Would the rate change overnight or would it just stay as it is now??

[flying]

Last time the dollar dropped below 30 Baht 6 months ago didn't the government say they would closely monitor this and take action as a low dollar would negatively affect exports?

I would guess they can only do so much as they burn through their reserves.

If the USD continues to drop they will cry uncle.

[KunMatt]

Edit: everything I just said was wrong as I missed a digit on my calculator!!!

Edited April 22, 2011 by UKMatt

[Naam]

"A strong baht helps decrease inflation, especially imported inflation," Atchana said in an interview at her office in Bangkok. "We didn't resist the trend" of Asian currency appreciation, she said.

Well, I guess that won't please all our expats, who are hoping for some miracle. OH, but what about the EXPORTS??? Surely Thailand cannot afford to do this?

look at the exchange rates of the last 5-6 years and the export figures of 2011 and then tell us again what Thailand can afford and what it can't afford. the only thing that Thailand can't afford is to amass Dollar reserves at the same pace like the last three years.

[12DrinkMore]

"A strong baht helps decrease inflation, especially imported inflation," Atchana said in an interview at her office in Bangkok. "We didn't resist the trend" of Asian currency appreciation, she said.

Well, I guess that won't please all our expats, who are hoping for some miracle. OH, but what about the EXPORTS??? Surely Thailand cannot afford to do this?

look at the exchange rates of the last 5-6 years and the export figures of 2011 and then tell us again what Thailand can afford and what it can't afford. the only thing that Thailand can't afford is to amass Dollar reserves at the same pace like the last three years.

Hmm, actually I was putting the words into the mouths of all the expats, who always trot out this reason for the THB to stay weak.

[KunMatt]

"A strong baht helps decrease inflation, especially imported inflation," Atchana said in an interview at her office in Bangkok. "We didn't resist the trend" of Asian currency appreciation, she said.

Well, I guess that won't please all our expats, who are hoping for some miracle. OH, but what about the EXPORTS??? Surely Thailand cannot afford to do this?

look at the exchange rates of the last 5-6 years and the export figures of 2011 and then tell us again what Thailand can afford and what it can't afford. the only thing that Thailand can't afford is to amass Dollar reserves at the same pace like the last three years.

Hmm, actually I was putting the words into the mouths of all the expats, who always trot out this reason for the THB to stay weak.

I might as well just ask outright, why are your posts on this so cynical of expats and laced with bitterness towards Western countries/currencies?

Obviously I want the GBP to be stronger because I still get paid in GBP and Thailand is already 65% more expensive than it was 5 years ago just on the exchange rate alone, not even including inflation yet. Why does this give you a reason to talk down to people like me??

[12DrinkMore]

I might as well just ask outright, why are your posts on this so cynical of expats and laced with bitterness towards Western countries/currencies?

Obviously I want the GBP to be stronger because I still get paid in GBP and Thailand is already 65% more expensive than it was 5 years ago just on the exchange rate alone, not even including inflation yet. Why does this give you a reason to talk down to people like me??

Sorry, I am not trying to talk down to anybody.

The Quid is down around 30% from its peak, so in terms of buying stuff in Thailand it is around 30% more expensive in terms of Quids than it was five years ago, a big drop, but not 65%.

I had started on a much bigger post, but I won't, I'll just refer you to my first post here

http://www.thaivisa....nancial-crisis/

Apart from the last sentence, I still feel the same way. And the bastards haven't solved anything, except awarded themselves more bonuses and continued to screw the savers to support the debtors. You can delete the last sentence because the Brits have simply taken the shafting firmly up the backside. I am disappointed.

But back to my post above.

Anytime the THB rises there will be, in the face of evidence against it, always posters and people I know, who rely on UK based income for example, keep saying "Oh, Thailand cannot afford to do this, the exports will collapse, the tourists won't some here anymore and the economy will die". Simply not true. Thai exports are increasing, the economy is chugging along nicely, as indeed is the whole of Asia. So yes, I do get a little cynical when I look at the parlous state of the UK compared to the vibrant and productive Asian economies, and then hear someone claim "Thailand cannot let the currency appreciate", whereas, in fact, it is the collapse and deliberate devaluation of the Great British Pound we should be talking about.

[KunMatt]

The Quid is down around 30% from its peak, so in terms of buying stuff in Thailand it is around 30% more expensive in terms of Quids than it was five years ago, a big drop, but not 65%.

No, the GBP peaked at 90 immediately after the crash. Plus everything was much cheaper back then too.

When I came here the Pound was 75, now it is less than 50, so everything costs me 50% extra just on that. Recently it was 45.

I'm sure a lot of the foreign businesses came to Thailand because it was a cheap place to manufacture and export from. What else does it offer? A pain in the ass visa system, a low level of English speaking workers, corruption and bribes aplenty, a face system where nobody will accept or admit fault, and so on. Why stay doing business here if you can do the same for cheaper and easier in poorer Asian countries or Africa?

Thailand doesn't R&D anything itself and has very few brand names, especially any that it sells worldwide. If all of the foreign companies took their business elsewhere what would happen? Thai tourism is getting a bad name and is not the cheap beautiful destination it was once famous for, there are plenty of more fun, unspoiled and cheaper destinations in the world now.

Thailand got to where it is now by being cheap. Now it's not cheap. So what's next?

[KunMatt]

Apart from the last sentence, I still feel the same way. And the bastards haven't solved anything, except awarded themselves more bonuses and continued to screw the savers to support the debtors. You can delete the last sentence because the Brits have simply taken the shafting firmly up the backside. I am disappointed.

Totally agree with you about the bankers. They justify their bonuses of millions of Pounds each year by saying that if they were not rewarded they would take their skills elsewhere. These are the same people responsible for almost bankrupting my country, please let them go elsewhere!. They are also the same banks that paid just 5% tax on their enormous profits after they were bailed out by the tax payers. It's hard not to want to raise up against the system when it's so blatently unfair like that.

The only thing I have hope with is that the new government is talking about action. I know it's mostly been talk but at least they are prepared to address the issues after the last uselss lot that got us into this situation.

Edited April 23, 2011 by KunMatt

[opac]

Embrace yourselves for the greatest economic change in the human history.

Fact #1 There was never before that all currency in the world is backed by nothing (fiat currency). Not even a grain of rice.

Fact #2 All the currency in the world today is created by debt + interest and they are designed to not to be paid off.

Fact #3 There was never before that the world economy and the communication has been linked as whole in global scale.

[markone1]

always posters and people I know, who rely on UK based income for example, keep saying "Oh, Thailand cannot afford to do this, the exports will collapse.

When the extremist totalitarian, socialists also known as the Republican and Democrat parties in the US and similar fools in the UK eventually make it impossible for their respective nations to borrow on the markets at the current cheaper rates by continuing to prop up their Ponzi schemes.Thus at some point in the not too distant future their nations will have to cut the hugely unaffordable pension schemes and armies of needless civil servants, and probably many that are needed, and in the US's case a military they cant afford.

Eventually common sense policies which are currently deemed right wing such as having equal trade agreements or more then likely tariffs on Eastern world goods such as they put on our goods, will happen and itll greatly affect the Eastern worlds ability to sell us their tat.

Britain, America and most European nations are beyond fcuked imho, the credit card economy where all we buy is foreign goods cant go on for much longer, gravity always wins!

Would it be a bad thing if the west resorted to policies that enabled the money for nothing baby boomer generation to live the sheltered lives theyve had gifted to them?

Edited April 23, 2011 by markone1

[Naam]

Thailand got to where it is now by being cheap. Now it's not cheap. So what's next?

next (from my perspective) is "Thailand is still an extremely cheap country to live". your mileage may vary.

[Naam]

Embrace yourselves for the greatest economic change in the human history.

Fact #1 There was never before that all currency in the world is backed by nothing (fiat currency). Not even a grain of rice.

Fact #2 All the currency in the world today is created by debt + interest and they are designed to not to be paid off.

Fact #3 There was never before that the world economy and the communication has been linked as whole in global scale.

[KunMatt]

next (from my perspective) is "Thailand is still an extremely cheap country to live". your mileage may vary.

Yeah, but my personal perspective is that I am about to pay for a house and therefore the biggest cheque of my life is costing me 50% more so it doesn't seem so cheap right now!!

But you're right that Thailand is cheap if you are making your money within Thailand or if you converted it back in the peak of the exchange rate and you are living off of your savings. However for those of us looking in from the outside it's not a great time to live off of any foreign funds.

[jackdawson]

not so much collapse (although i voted yes) but continue it's steady path downward .

as an american it's sad to witness but we have a political system where everyone pushes everyone else aside to get their snout in the trough and no one thinks about where the food is coming from or who's paying for it .

sometimes i can't believe we actually won WW II and put a man on the moon .

the main culprits now are seniors (as in the elderly not 4th year college students) who got everything from the country , voted in Reagan who started the debt binge and now don't wanna give . gee , what a shocker .

spending $100 a billion a year in Irag / Afghan. and $500 + billion a year overall on "defense" doesn't help either but i am sure lockheed/martin , boeing and general dynamics don't mind .

never was smart enough to buy gold or oil (yet anyway) but recently put almost 20% of what i have into non-US currencies (which u can easily do w/ ETFs) which (so far) has turned out to be a profitable move .

w/ half of europe about to "restructure" (not pay all of) their debt i don't know about the euro but the Aussie and Canadian $s sure r strong .

living here in thailand u have just got to hedge against the further strengthening of the baht against the $

or u could anyway

Edited April 23, 2011 by jackdawson

[12DrinkMore]

I'm sure a lot of the foreign businesses came to Thailand because it was a cheap place to manufacture and export from. What else does it offer? A pain in the ass visa system, a low level of English speaking workers, corruption and bribes aplenty, a face system where nobody will accept or admit fault, and so on. Why stay doing business here if you can do the same for cheaper and easier in poorer Asian countries or Africa?

Thailand doesn't R&D anything itself and has very few brand names, especially any that it sells worldwide. If all of the foreign companies took their business elsewhere what would happen? Thai tourism is getting a bad name and is not the cheap beautiful destination it was once famous for, there are plenty of more fun, unspoiled and cheaper destinations in the world now.

Thailand got to where it is now by being cheap. Now it's not cheap. So what's next?

We are experiences a bit of mission creep, as this was originally about the collapse of the USD. So rather than answer all those points, I'll just point out that obviously we have both decided that in spite of some negative factors we are living here in Thailand and not in the UK, which I left some 30 years ago, or indeed anywhere else. Unlike you I have no money planted in property, as I cannot get the sums to work for me (rent/buy/flexibilty). All things considered Thailand is the best value for money package I can find on the planet, in terms of my expectations and budget.

And presumably all those foreign companies investing in production facilities think the same way.

[12DrinkMore]

Eventually common sense policies which are currently deemed right wing such as having equal trade agreements or more then likely tariffs on Eastern world goods such as they put on our goods, will happen and itll greatly affect the Eastern worlds ability to sell us their tat.

a. The Asians may produce a lot of tat, but they also produce a lot of high quality stuff too.

b. Tariffs are imposed to prevent a flood of cheaply produced goods from putting the national enterprises out of business. It would be shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted. And the barn door will remain closed unless the costs of setting up production in the west are reduced to Asian levels. Which won't happen.

[12DrinkMore]

sometimes i can't believe we actually won WW II and put a man on the moon .

That was 66 and 42 years ago.....

Since then no wars have been won, and no more men making giant leaps for mankind for 39 years.

But we do have 14 trillions of debt!

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Amazing America!

[Schooner]

Yes, no, maybe. I don't care. I got here on my wits and cleverness (not to mention BS) and if I run out of money I will do it again. I've been through a few rich/poor cycles and frankly it was the best thing I could have experenced because it made me let go of the fear about it.

When the SHTF we're all going to be in trouble no matter what we did. There is a pattern emerging of robbing the ones who have always "done the right thing" and that will continue because greed is what underlies everything and a system based on greed is unsustainable.

I guess that we're just going to have to keep trying and failing until we get it right.

[Naam]

next (from my perspective) is "Thailand is still an extremely cheap country to live". your mileage may vary.

Yeah, but my personal perspective is that I am about to pay for a house and therefore the biggest cheque of my life is costing me 50% more so it doesn't seem so cheap right now!!

But you're right that Thailand is cheap if you are making your money within Thailand or if you converted it back in the peak of the exchange rate and you are living off of your savings. However for those of us looking in from the outside it's not a great time to live off of any foreign funds.

as i said... all a matter of perspective. compare Thai house prices and living expenses with those in Australia or Europe, add Oz or €U income tax and then tell us again "Thailand is not cheap".

[cloudhopper]

next (from my perspective) is "Thailand is still an extremely cheap country to live". your mileage may vary.

Yeah, but my personal perspective is that I am about to pay for a house and therefore the biggest cheque of my life is costing me 50% more so it doesn't seem so cheap right now!!

But you're right that Thailand is cheap if you are making your money within Thailand or if you converted it back in the peak of the exchange rate and you are living off of your savings. However for those of us looking in from the outside it's not a great time to live off of any foreign funds.

as i said... all a matter of perspective. compare Thai house prices and living expenses with those in Australia or Europe, add Oz or €U income tax and then tell us again "Thailand is not cheap".

And in the States it's the property taxes and homeowners insurance that will kill you (in a non violent way).

[lannarebirth]

next (from my perspective) is "Thailand is still an extremely cheap country to live". your mileage may vary.

Yeah, but my personal perspective is that I am about to pay for a house and therefore the biggest cheque of my life is costing me 50% more so it doesn't seem so cheap right now!!

But you're right that Thailand is cheap if you are making your money within Thailand or if you converted it back in the peak of the exchange rate and you are living off of your savings. However for those of us looking in from the outside it's not a great time to live off of any foreign funds.

as i said... all a matter of perspective. compare Thai house prices and living expenses with those in Australia or Europe, add Oz or €U income tax and then tell us again "Thailand is not cheap".

And in the States it's the property taxes and homeowners insurance that will kill you (in a non violent way).

You never really own your own house in America. Even if it's fully paid for you're only one unfortunate incident away from losing your home as costs mount incredibly.

[markone1]

Eventually common sense policies which are currently deemed right wing such as having equal trade agreements or more then likely tariffs on Eastern world goods such as they put on our goods, will happen and itll greatly affect the Eastern worlds ability to sell us their tat.

a. The Asians may produce a lot of tat, but they also produce a lot of high quality stuff too.

b. Tariffs are imposed to prevent a flood of cheaply produced goods from putting the national enterprises out of business. It would be shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted. And the barn door will remain closed unless the costs of setting up production in the west are reduced to Asian levels. Which won't happen.

No need to be defensive about what tat the East makes its irrelevant to my point.

For now the US/UK and many EU govts are keeping the Ponzi scheme going by borrowing more and more money aswell as printing money, this cant go on forever, im sure we can all agree on this.

Eventually they wont be able to pay it back, this will lead to default in some way or other. (if they do keep up with payments the interest on the debt will be so great itll lead to the same thing as stated below)

When they cant borrow any more theyve no money to pay the huge public sector or unaffordable pensions that successive govts havent dealt with for 50 years, thus the public sector/pension cash that now trickles into the service sector wont be there thus we'll lose masses of public and service sector jobs.

So as the scam of public and service sector jobs has been exposed the only way to create growth in the economy will be to make things to sell in our masses of shopping malls.

So as the proles of the UK/US/EU come out of the trance that is shopping on credit as its no longer available to them, theyll quickly realise the only way to get back to the life theyre accustomed to is to vote for a party that will create and protect manufacturing jobs, thus our govts. will have 2 choices from what i can see, have equal trade agreements with developing nations, or revert to the protectionist policies similar to what the East has now, but what we had in the western world in the 20th Century, something the baby boomers who have had an easy life gifted to them benefited from.

Thats what should happen in theory, but for it to happen sooner rather then later i am relying on common sense of the voter, and as the half million retards (i apologise for insulting retards) marching in London recently show much of the electorate doesnt quite get it yet, but eventually theyll have no choice as you cant borrow and print fro ever, its just a case of how much longer the global govts can keep the plates spinning for.

Edited April 24, 2011 by markone1