Is The Us$ Destined To Collapse?

[midas]

Look at how people searching world wide for USD collapse back in 2008, just as it made one its most ferocious rally in a decade.

you cannot surely compare conditions back in 2008 to now ?

Back in 2008 many people were too shy to publicly admit the emperor has no clothes

Edited June 1, 2011 by midas

[RedFxTrade]

Look at how people searching world wide for USD collapse back in 2008, just as it made one its most ferocious rally in a decade.

you cannot surely compare conditions back in 2008 to now ?

Back in 2008 many people were too shy to publicly admit the emperor has no clothes

Well, in some ways that may be the case, but I m specifically talking about the USD against other currencies...and 3 years later the USD is higher against the CAD, NZD is around the same level, USD is higher against the Euro and the GBP than in 2008, its higher against the NOK and SEK than 2008.

The European banking system is weaker now than in 2008 and systemic risks are higher.

The Australian economy is in a credit bubble, and China has a fixed asset bubble.

My time frame is a few months to be long USD. The USD was at a much lower level against many currencies back in 2008 when they were calling a USD collapse, today it is higher against many currencies and considerably higher against a few like the EUR and GBP , 3 years later. Futures positioning data suggests people are no less or more shy regarding the USD today than in 2008. Infact the shorts at this moment have eased according to the latest speculative positioning data, and speculative positioning is showing people being less short the USD than 2008...I can only go with the facts, until they change. At this moment the facts are that USD shorts are easing. It reminds a little of last June the hysterical calls all over the media as plunged down to 1.2000 and then to 1.1900, everyone was calling Euro to parity. I went long at that point with initial small positions and as priced moved up added more. I targeted 1.3600, and in the end under estimated the strength of the rally.

Longer term I expect the USD to be weaker against real assets but the judge is still out on how weak it will be against the other ugly sisters. To call USD collapse against other currencies is too USD centric. If you look at the fundamentals for Australia, Europe, the UK, they too have many problems. I m in for the short to medium term, short AUDUSD a few weeks back and long USDCHF. If I m wrong well, I still own my gold and silver, and have my stops on my positions. Time will tell.

[Naam]

Well, in some ways that may be the case, but I m specifically talking about the USD against other currencies...and 3 years later the USD is higher against the CAD, NZD is around the same level, USD is higher against the Euro and the GBP than in 2008, its higher against the NOK and SEK than 2008.

= misinformation based on unspecific generalisation! i can prove that all your claims are wrong if i pick my specific dates in 2008.

[RedFxTrade]

Well, in some ways that may be the case, but I m specifically talking about the USD against other currencies...and 3 years later the USD is higher against the CAD, NZD is around the same level, USD is higher against the Euro and the GBP than in 2008, its higher against the NOK and SEK than 2008.

= misinformation based on unspecific generalisation! i can prove that all your claims are wrong if i pick my specific dates in 2008.

Well, since we are talking about USD collapse I m talking at the time in 2008 when people were talking about a USD collapse...that was namely when the USD was plunging against the CAD, the CHF, the AUD, the NOK, SEK and oil was soaring to 147 USD and the FED started to cut rates, etc...and I m talking about the absolute lows...can you show me that the USD lows of 2011 are lower than 2008 lows the USD made against the NOK,SEK, GBP, EUR, CAD, HUF...three years later? Whatever date you pick over the last three years to be more precise without generalisations you the USD is higher against the USD, SEK, NOK, HUF, GBP, CAD, EUR...Thats why to say the USD is collapsing when it is higher than its absolute lows against those currencies is inaccurate.

[Naam]

i won't to show "any vs. any". all what i said that using "2008" and "higher" is generalising and wrong if no specific dates are mentioned. it is correct if used in context "when people were talking..".

but who the eff cares or makes a decision today based on what happened when "people where talking..." three years ago? Bear Sterns and the infamous triple A rated mortgage rubbish caused the Dollar to drop to (what i consider real value).

then post Lehman we had (as so often) a flight into "quality". the latter can happen again if EUroland doesn't solve its well known problems. fundamentally the currency of the Greatest Nation on Earth™, who's revenues are 14% of its debt, combined with the fact that the debt is still increasing is doomed. not necessarily today and not necessarily next year but it's only a matter of time.

disclaimer: i hold (17% of my portfolio) cash as well as paper USD

[RedFxTrade]

i won't to show "any vs. any". all what i said that using "2008" and "higher" is generalising and wrong if no specific dates are mentioned. it is correct if used in context "when people were talking..".

but who the eff cares or makes a decision today based on what happened when "people where talking..." three years ago? Bear Sterns and the infamous triple A rated mortgage rubbish caused the Dollar to drop to (what i consider real value).

then post Lehman we had (as so often) a flight into "quality". the latter can happen again if EUroland doesn't solve its well known problems. fundamentally the currency of the Greatest Nation on Earth™, who's revenues are 14% of its debt, combined with the fact that the debt is still increasing is doomed. not necessarily today and not necessarily next year but it's only a matter of time.

disclaimer: i hold (17% of my portfolio) cash as well as paper USD

Because there have been many times when I have used sentiment as a trading tool, one such way is to combine retail positioning, large speculator positioning, and a proliferation of sensational head lines by such groups as the United Nations, the well renowned currency trading institution ...However, whether it is based on talking or facts, the facts remains that the USD is off its all time lows against the mentioned currencies. Thats facts are the numbers regardless of what people are saying...and those numbers are that the USD is above its lows of mentioned currencies.

[badge]

either the current bounce continues or perhaps the 68 level will be visited.

But this kind of headline doesn't help sentiment?

United Nations report warns of dollar "collapse"

Or on the other hand headlines like that favour a brave contrarian...and more likely to hear that at market extremes.

[...]

Look at how people searching world wide for USD collapse back in 2008, just as it made one its most ferocious rally in a decade. Once again people have been jumping on the search engines searching USD collapse. I tend to fade these hysterical headlines.

Precisely why I left a poll in the header.

Surprisingly enough (to me at least), thaivisa users were not overtly bearish USDs.

I must spend too long on the Gold forum.

[Gumballl]

the US-Dollar will collapse by Christmas! what year? how would i know?

at the same time as gold hits $10,000 plus

Well then, that will be a boon for the US, since it holds so much gold in reserve.

[MAJIC]

Apart from the last sentence, I still feel the same way. And the bastards haven't solved anything, except awarded themselves more bonuses and continued to screw the savers to support the debtors. You can delete the last sentence because the Brits have simply taken the shafting firmly up the backside. I am disappointed.

Totally agree with you about the bankers. They justify their bonuses of millions of Pounds each year by saying that if they were not rewarded they would take their skills elsewhere. These are the same people responsible for almost bankrupting my country, please let them go elsewhere!. They are also the same banks that paid just 5% tax on their enormous profits after they were bailed out by the tax payers. It's hard not to want to raise up against the system when it's so blatently unfair like that.

The only thing I have hope with is that the new government is talking about action. I know it's mostly been talk but at least they are prepared to address the issues after the last uselss lot that got us into this situation.

Address the issues??????

They just did today,by giving away well over £2 Billion to India,of Taxpeayers Money!

and they have also said: they will not cut back on World Aid!

At least the last Government,looked after our own people.

Edited June 1, 2011 by MAJIC