Thaksin's Arrival In Cambodia Crushes Hope

[webfact]

Point of no return

By Noppajak Attanont

Supalak Ganjanakhundee

The Nation

Published on November 11, 2009

Point of no return

Thakin's arrival in Cambodia crushes hope of late U-turn; visit coincides with rumour of 'war room' in Phnom Penn

Yesterday was the first time Thaksin Shinawatra had come so close to Thailand since he fled the country about a year or so ago. He landed in Phnom Penh at the controversial invitation of Prime Minister Hun Sen.

Yet the hero's welcome, the embraces and the elaborate "family" photograph he took with the Cambodian elite may have pushed several issues well past the point of no return.

Already suffering bilateral relations were in even worse shape yesterday as Thaksin and Hun Sen had a celebratory dinner and the Cabinet in Thailand resolved to tear up the memorandum of understanding on overlapping maritime claims.

Earlier speculation that Thaksin might decide to make a last-minute U-turn due to political concerns from his main political backers in Thailand was quelled by the presence of his brother-in-law, former PM Somchai Wongsawat, and Somchai's wife Yaowapa in Phnom Penh.

In one of the most tantalising political photos ever taken, Somchai and Yaowapa were seen posing with Hun Sen, his wife and their family members. Hun Sen, shrugging off the fast-deteriorating ties with the Abhisit government, obviously wants everyone to know that Thaksin is the Thai political horse he is betting upon.

Thaksin's private jet landed at Phnom Penh International Airport in the morning and he was escorted to the capital by a convoy of cars under tight security. He suddenly became a media star, with local and foreign reporters scrambling to cover every detail of the visit, which was also featured on television news.

"Thaksin is here for the economy and not activities related to politics. It is an honour for Cambodia's economic sector and we hope that Cambodians nationwide welcome him warmly," Cambodian cabinet spokesman Phay Siphan said.

However, Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party was left suffering from a political backlash at home, so much so that some party members wished he would just thank Hun Sen for the invitation and return to his exile as far away and as soon as possible.

With Hun Sen and Cambodia as a whole being dragged into Thai politics - leaving Thaksin's supporters seething and Hun Sen's supporters worried - the already slim chances of reconciliation have become even slimmer.

Cambodian state television, showing Thaksin and Hun Sen embracing, reported that the Cambodian leader had pronounced him an "eternal friend" and "the best adviser with economic leadership". In return, Thaksin reportedly thanked Hun Sen for offering him the post of an adviser, adding that "nothing could compare" to his excitement over the new job.

Thaksin also plans to visit the famous Angkor Wat temple during his trip, TV reports said.

Hun Sen was also seen hugging Somchai and Yaowapa, whose presence in Phnom Penh coincided with earlier rumours that Thaksin's innermost circle was setting up a "war room" in the Cambodian capital amid concerns that the Hun Sen saga was threatening Thaksin's popularity back home.

There was also the possible complication of a Thai extradition request, although Hun Sen has unequivocally said such a demand from Bangkok would be rejected.

Even before landing in Phnom Penh, Thaksin's future in Thailand looked particularly grim after Times Online published an interview quoting him as calling for a reform in the institution of monarchy. Thaksin strongly denied having criticised the monarchy, but his defiant touchdown in Cambodia is unlikely to help his political predicament.

From his Phnom Penh sanctuary, Thaksin again last night insisted on his loyalty to the Thai monarch and his love for the country. He attacked the Democrats for taking advantage of the "distorted" Times Online report and using it to smear him.

Thaksin said he had "made a mistake" in responding to a question posed by the British journalist about the succession of the throne, adding that he had simply thought of the rule of succession in general, without thinking of His Majesty's health.

"I want to bang my head against the floor. I forgot that His Majesty was in hospital," he said during a broadcast from Cambodia. "I pray for the King to recover quickly from his illness and remain the guiding light for Thai people for a long time to come."

He said on the Internet-based ThaksinLive radio and People's TV that he had complained in writing to The Times for misinterpreting what he had said and making the headline and lead paragraph in the article offensive to the Thai people. He said he expected the newspaper to rectify the report in a day or two.

As a new economic adviser to the Cambodian government, Thaksin said he would be lecturing Cambodian cabinet members and senior bureaucrats about how to reduce the country's poverty tomorrow.

"I won't come to this country too often. I am afraid the [Thai] government will have no time to work," he said.

But coming just once might be enough to damage many things beyond repair, some observers believe.

-- The Nation 2009/11/11

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THAKSIN'S NEW ROLE

Red carpet welcome

By Supalak Ganjanakhundee, Agencies

The Nation, Phnom Penh

Published on November 11, 2009

Red carpet welcome

Thaksin 'not here to engage in political activities'

Phnom Penh - Fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra received a warm welcome on his arrival in Phnom Penh yesterday to serve as an economic adviser to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

After his private jet landed at Phnom Penh International Airport in the morning, he was whisked away in a motorcade to Hun Sen's official residence.

Thaksin's first day in the Cambodian capital began with a series of courtesy calls to senior people in the ruling Cambodian People's Party and ended in dinner with Hun Sen and his family.

It is said he was treated to a nine-course meal of various traditional delicacies. According to Thai belief, nine is considered a lucky number.

Thaksin is due to give a lecture to more than 300 Cambodian economists tomorrow.

The former PM's new role in Cambodia has fuelled friction between the two countries, as Thailand wants to seek his extradition in connection with a corruption case but Phnom Penh has clearly said it will not entertain the request.

However, Cambodian government spokesman Phay Siphan said Thaksin would only be concentrating on economic matters for the country's development and should not spark any more tension with Thailand.

"He is here for economic reasons, not activities related to politics," he said. "Cambodia does not allow foreign nationals to engage in political activities within our country."

Cambodia wants to live in harmony with her neighbours, he added.

Meanwhile, upon landing in Phnom Penh, Thaksin posted a Twitter message saying he had landed, but was "really homesick".

"Tonight I will dine with P M Hun Sen and his family. I want to reiterate that nation, religion and the monarchy are always on my mind," he wrote.

However, Thaksin's arrival in Phnom Penh angered the Thai government, which retaliated by tearing up the maritime memorandum of understanding signed between the two countries during Thaksin's time. Sources say the government fears that the ex-PM, who knows each and every detail about the pact, might reveal some national secrets to his new boss.

The MoU was signed in 2001 to thrash out matters involving the demarcation of territorial waters and the joint development area in the Gulf of Thailand, where abundant reserves of natural gas are believed to be waiting to be discovered.

Cambodian Foreign Ministry spokesman Koy Kuong said the MoU was not meant for Cambodia alone, but would benefit both parties. He added that the agreement had been signed by two nations, and could not be broken by one party.

"It's funny to say that the MoU must be terminated just because Thaksin and Hun Sen have vested interests," Koy Kuong told The Nation yesterday. He added that Cambodia had not yet decided on its response.

However, analysts believe Thaksin's visit has sparked anger and fear that could drag down relations between the two countries and have the borders simmering.

Cheang Vannarith, executive director of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace, a Phnom Penh-based political research organisation, said Hun Sen had obviously factored in the Thai general election expected to be held next year.

"Hun Sen clearly believes the Thaksin group could win the next elections," Vannarith said. "By that time bilateral ties can be rebuilt and the friendship restored."

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, disagreed. "It could boomerang on him," he said. "We Thais might fight among ourselves, but as soon as you have an outsider meddling, we tend to close ranks and turn against it."

Thaksin's move benefits both the ousted leader and his Cambodian host, but could bring the two countries closer to war, analysts have said.

Experts are warning that the two neighbours are now locked in a dangerous game of brinkmanship that could reignite deadly clashes over the Preah Vihear Temple issue. They say the pressure is now on Thailand not to overreact, after it angrily pulled its ambassador from Phnom Penh last week and scrapped the oil and gas exploration deal.

"How bad it gets will depend on whether Abhisit keeps his cool and resists pressure from those who are intent on this conflict escalating," said Michael Montesano, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

[jalansanitwong]

I have no time for Thaksin but Abhisit is getting everything that he deserves. He is a Usurper and that always means your walking on thin ice. If an election is held, Thaksin and his crew will do what they always do to Abhisit. Thrash him to the point of humiliaton.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

visit coincides with rumour of 'war room' in Phnom Penn

I thought rumour mongering was frowned upon legally in this country.. Maybe only when it applies to the other side.

whose presence in Phnom Penh coincided with earlier rumours that Thaksin's innermost circle was setting up a "war room" in the Cambodian capital amid concerns that

Nice; a 'rumour' competely without source or fact. I'd flunk doing that even in a high school article assignment.

Gotta love the way The Nation completely flips things around, taking the 'bad relationhip with Cambodia' as a fact of life, and not something completely the Thai government's doing in recent times. Then they jump to saying that Cambodia is now somehow the enemy, meaning Thaksin is a traitor. Hello, Cambodia and Thailand had excellent relationships until very recently, as they should; they have a lot more in common than divides them, and are natural trade partners.

This nationlist BS initially banged up by PAD is getting to the Nation's head it seems. Go to war already why don't you.

PAD's New Politics.. nationalist claptrap and wanting war.. Hmmm..

["New Politics Party" logo; I did NOT make this up!

Edited November 11, 2009 by Scott
name edited out/Scott

[Siripon]

Some reporters last night speculated Hun Sen was offering Thaksin Koh Kong province to develop and lord over.

[hammered]

visit coincides with rumour of 'war room' in Phnom Penn

I thought rumour mongering was frowned upon legally in this country.. Maybe only when it applies to the other side.

whose presence in Phnom Penh coincided with earlier rumours that Thaksin's innermost circle was setting up a "war room" in the Cambodian capital amid concerns that

Nice; a 'rumour' competely without source or fact. I'd flunk doing that even in a high school article assignment.

Gotta love the way The Nation completely flips things around, taking the 'bad relationhip with Cambodia' as a fact of life, and not something completely the Thai government's doing in recent times. Then they jump to saying that Cambodia is now somehow the enemy, meaning Thaksin is a traitor. Hello, Cambodia and Thailand had excellent relationships until very recently, as they should; they have a lot more in common than divides them, and are natural trade partners.

This nationlist BS initially banged up by PAD is getting to the Nation's head it seems. Go to war already why don't you.

PAD's New Politics.. nationalist claptrap and wanting war.. Hmmm..

["New Politics Party" logo; I did NOT make this up! (Linked from wikipedia.org)

I suggest you read up on history a little especially between traditonal rivals Cambodia and Thailand. You may need to throw Vietnam in there for insight too into the Cambodian position particularly when it concerns Hun Sens close relationship with that traditonal Cambodian rival too and how the balancing of two more powerful rivals on opposite borders affects policy. I ahve been in Thailand for a couple of decades and in that period cannot remember Thailand and Cambodia ever having an excellent relationship. At times it has been worse than now KR days and Embassy burning and at times better but never excellent. But I would suggest you need to look back a lot further than just the last couple of decades.

[hammered]

Some reporters last night speculated Hun Sen was offering Thaksin Koh Kong province to develop and lord over.

It increasingly looks like Hun Sen is trying to trigger a big reaction from Thailand. That however, is not necessarily to Thaksin's advantage as poitned out by Thitinan in one of the reports (Thais will rally against a foreign enemy).

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Well, people wanting war can always go back to the 1300's and the Khmer Empire. Or they could just see that developing trade, shared national resources and tourism makes a lot more sense. Anyway, this high seaosn is still early, so far no natural or man made disasters yet; I'd say it's not too late to fuc_k it up by having a boarder war.

Edited November 11, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Publicus]

Thailand and Cambodia are not going to have a war for any reason, much less Thaksin's presence in Cambodia. Neither side is looking to fight a war, especially one Thailand would win in a week or maybe two weeks.

[LawnGnome]

Its funny, even the tradition Thaksin supporters are not saying much about his recent behavior. Winnie is still going strong, but that kind of zealot loyalty is not being heard from aside from him.

Thaksin is finished - its all over for him in Thailand. I could say I told you so, but seeing a once proud leader of men cavorting with genocidal warlords takes the wind out of my sails. Thank God Thailand has better men in charge now.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Wot.. I'm just pointing out basic logic, and basic mistakes on the part of the current government.. It's not like I actually like Thaksin.. He did some good, and some bad, but I don't think he's Thailand's future. Not sure if that sounds like a zealot to you. The one thing I will credit him for is to -consciously or not- awaken the rural poor. That genie is not going back into the bottle, and is at the root cause of why the establishment is so worried right now. (Or even 'shit scared', judging by their hysterical actions)

Also, and again looking at historical events, if Thaksin is finished then that would make him the first elected Thai PM deposed in a coup NOT to make a return to the prime stage later on. Old politicians never die in Thailand.

But if it makes you feel better to think that a person is finished in politics then go right ahead, then we can move on to other perennial favorite topics such as the concept of sin sod or the meaning of the word Farang. Haven't done those in a while.

Edited November 11, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[caf]

Its funny, even the tradition Thaksin supporters are not saying much about his recent behavior. Winnie is still going strong, but that kind of zealot loyalty is not being heard from aside from him.

Thaksin is finished - its all over for him in Thailand. I could say I told you so, but seeing a once proud leader of men cavorting with genocidal warlords takes the wind out of my sails. Thank God Thailand has better men in charge now.

That maybe because the rules prohibit talking about certain things. Don't read too much into posts not being made.

[hammered]

As much as I enjoy the banter and debate on here I dont think TV really reflects what is thought or happening in Thailand! It does have a good cross section of opinions though and even some of the posters are Thai.

I doubt a lack of Thaksinistas or Padites at some time or another reflects much in real terms.

[JR Texas]

As much as I enjoy the banter and debate on here I dont think TV really reflects what is thought or happening in Thailand! It does have a good cross section of opinions though and even some of the posters are Thai.

I doubt a lack of Thaksinistas or Padites at some time or another reflects much in real terms.

I think that the people who should be most concerned about this are:

1) Cambodians who want to improve the quality of their lives. Given what Mr. T did in Thailand (all of the economic harm he caused), they should be very concerned about seeing a reversal of the economic growth and progress Cambodia has witnessed over the past decade.

2) Farang expats living in Cambodia who moved to Cambodia to get away from the insane immigration/business rules. One can only hope that Mr. T will not convince the Cambodian govt. to make the same stupid mistakes that Thailand made regarding immigration/business rules.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Warning.. Massive Outbreak of Common Sense ahead..

The Times has a commentary out. Many are not going to like it. PM me for the link.

Edited November 11, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[hammered]

Warning.. Massive Outbreak of Common Sense ahead..

The Times has a commentary out. Many are not going to like it. PM me for the link.

Is that the one that ends with Giles comment?

The Times have done loads of stuff in the last few days

[WinnieTheKhwai]

No, Giles isn't in it. It ends with "Scrutiny need not entail disrespect."

( You can do a search for 'spat'. )

Edited November 11, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[Samuian]

As much as I enjoy the banter and debate on here I dont think TV really reflects what is thought or happening in Thailand! It does have a good cross section of opinions though and even some of the posters are Thai.

I doubt a lack of Thaksinistas or Padites at some time or another reflects much in real terms.

PADístas are going to rally on sunday for the monarchy!

[WinnieTheKhwai]

That's a tried and tested tactic. Compare it with conservatives rallying 'for Christmas' as if Christmas is under threat by anyone. Still it works to create a particular atmosphere while stifling any discussion on anything. ( I'm not arguing with their right to hold rallies, of course. I hope they have a good one, and keep it civilized.)

Edited November 11, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[mrtoad]

Warning.. Massive Outbreak of Common Sense ahead..

The Times has a commentary out. Many are not going to like it. PM me for the link.

I don't think that it is an issue about many not liking it, the issue is that the law as it stands is often interpreted in such a way that it makes it very difficult. The commentary only reiterates what is already known. I don't think even many of the Thaksin haters here on TV believe that "Dear Leader" had broken the law, but it was pretty apparent from the out-start that the comments he made would be controversial and not sit well in Thailand. Thaksin should have known that.

[mrtoad]

That's a tried and tested tactic. Compare it with conservatives rallying 'for Christmas' as if Christmas is under threat by anyone. Still it works to create a particular atmosphere while stifling any discussion on anything. ( I'm not arguing with their right to hold rallies, of course. I hope they have a good one, and keep it civilized.)

Well, it should be more civilized than the morons who rampaged in April.

[Samuian]

No, Giles isn't in it. It ends with "Scrutiny need not entail disrespect."

( You can do a search for 'spat'. )

@winnithekwai:

... are you "reporting" from a blog which starts in the second sentence with a blunt 1/16 "truth"?

.....part of the Times Online website has been blocked in Thailand..

link:

( i don't know about this link, so if it may very well be deleted!)

I never ever faced ANY problems accessing this particular article or site!

if there was a difficulty it may have been a result of "flooding"by clicks as many,many tried to get access to this article!

Edited November 11, 2009 by Samuian

[wayfarer108]

I have no time for Thaksin but Abhisit is getting everything that he deserves. He is a Usurper and that always means your walking on thin ice. If an election is held, Thaksin and his crew will do what they always do to Abhisit. Thrash him to the point of humiliaton.

Who told you that, an Isan hillbilly? Opinion polls say otherwise.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Samuian, to be honest I have no idea what you're talking about. I am reading from the original source, the Times site, and it is not blocked and I am in Thailand. That's all I know, and all I wrote about. I cannot comment on any comments made by people I don't know and who's comments I haven't read, quoted by you without source or context.

Edited November 11, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[catmac]

PADístas are going to rally on sunday for the monarchy!

Just what we need to get the high-season off to a good start! I'm sure the sight of the yellow shirts on the rampage again will do wonders for Thailand's image, sad to see them claiming patriotism and the Monarchy as their sole preserve. Can't wait to see them setting off on a march to the Cambodian border once more!

[wayfarer108]

Warning.. Massive Outbreak of Common Sense ahead..

The Times has a commentary out. Many are not going to like it. PM me for the link.

What's not to like? It was fair comment. Doesn't change the fact that Thaksin is arguably the most dangerous man in Thai history.

[h90]

PAD's New Politics.. nationalist claptrap and wanting war.. Hmmm..

["New Politics Party" logo; I did NOT make this up!

What's wrong with the logo?

[wayfarer108]

Also, and again looking at historical events, if Thaksin is finished then that would make him the first elected Thai PM deposed in a coup NOT to make a return to the prime stage later on. Old politicians never die in Thailand.

Your version of 'historical events' is distorted. Thaksin lost the premiership after dissolution of Parliament, and he announced on 4 April 2006 that he would not accept the post of Prime Minister after Parliament reconvened. He then delegated his functions to Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Chidchai Wannasathit, moved out of Government House, and went on vacation. He had already stepped down on 8 May 2006, after the Constitutional Court ruled 8-6 to invalidate the April elections. The coup came in September 2006.

Other elected PMs have been deposed by coups and never returned to political office, however.

Plaek Pibulsongkram, elected 25 Jun 1949, deposed by coup 29 Nov 1951, never came back.

Kuang Abhaiwongse, elected 21 Feb 1948, deposed by coup 8 April 1948, never came back.

MR Kukrit Pramoj, elected 14 March 1975, deposed by coup 29 Oct 1976, never came back.

Chatichai Choonhavan, elected 27 Aug 1986, deposed by coup 23 Feb 1991, never came back.

http://www.cabinet.thaigov.go.th/eng/bb_main21.htm

Edited November 14, 2009 by sabaijai

[WinnieTheKhwai]

It looks like Sri Suan Plaza's logo in Chiang Mai, alright?

[Bagwan]

I couldn't help but think on seeing the picture of Hun Sen and Thaksin embracing that either wouldn't hesitate to knife the other in the back if it suited their purposes.

My wife's relatives live along the Cambodian border in Sa Kaeo and Buriram. Although of Khmer stock they are united in their detestation of Cambodians and tell me that they, the Cambodians, frequently cross the border to steal cattle, motor bikes and just about anything not locked up. The intruders are not averse to offering violence to anybody who gets in their way, so they say.

A friendly Pattaya cop, I'm sorry, I'll re-phrase that, a Pattaya cop who was being polite and non-aggressive towards me at that moment, in conversation mentioned that he came from just a few clicks down the road from my wife's family home. I said that we were going to visit family and friends the following day and would be making an early start. He was horrified when I told him that we would start out about 0300 so that we could make good best possible speed and that our route would be to follow the 359 to Wattana Nakhon and to take the minor roads avoiding Ta Phraya before joining up with 348 to Lahan Sai. He counselled me not to travel that route in the hours of darkness as it was so dangerous due to Cambodian incursions and on the few occasions that he had done so, he had placed his pistol on top of the dashboard within easy reach.

Given these insights I have to think that Thaksin's venture into Cambodia will not go down too well with those residing in those parts of Isan in proximity to the border.

Edited November 11, 2009 by Bagwan