Question About Udd Red Shirt Protesters And Songkran

last year in bangkok the UDD and songkran came up quite a violent the turn out was like the PAD I suppose. Which makes me wonder, if next week is Songkran / The thai new year and the red shirts have already been here for a month any predictions on the amount of people coming or going in the red shirt crowd of people. I know thats silly to ask but from various postings and newspapers than I've read I've heard that next week during Songkran aka thai new year there are a few scenario's

Because its thai new year I suppose the time for family's to get together 3 scenarios could happen

1. The situation stays the same / gets worse, crowds are still about the same

2. More family members come to visit their red shirt family members and join in on the protest eventually making the crowd larger and uncontrollable

3. As people decide to head home to rejoin the family and celebrate for the thai new year this in turns makes the crowd smaller.

To be honest I really don't know either thats why I thought I'd ask.