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Thailand: A Simple Guide To Anarchy And Chaos


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OVERDRIVE

A simple guide to anarchy and chaos

By Thanong Khanthong

Political upheaval is underway. Most people are confused as to what exactly is going on. Here are my observations:

1. The red shirts are rallying against the 2006 coup. They are staging a modern version of a people's revolution. They have all three elements necessary for a revolution: A party, mass support and an army. The April 10 clash between red shirts and troops represents the first round of an armed struggle against the government. They are applying pressure with the street rally, via parliamentary means and also through violence. At the same time, a third party is carrying out acts of sabotage almost on a daily basis outside the capital.

2. The red shirts want to amend the Constitution to weaken the monarchy. Dr weng Tojirakarn, one of the red-shirt leaders, admitted the other day that one of the political aspirations of the red shirts is to reduce the Thai monarchy to a similar status to that of Japan, the UK, the Netherlands and others.

3. The chief sponsors of the red shirts are Thaksin Shinawatra, the Pheu Thai Party, the elite, the military and an unnamed militia, the police, big businesses, NGOs and leftists. This movement also appeals to the masses both in Bangkok and upcountry.

4. In essence, the red-shirt phenomenon is a clash between new money and old money for power - which has little to do with the claims of the masses.

5. Apart from weakening the monarchy, the red shirts intend to give amnesty to banned ex-Thai Rak Thai politicians and also to core leaders of the red shirts now detained under the Internal Security Act.

6. I am surprised by the change of heart of many characters at this juncture. Rosana Tositrakul, a progressive senator, sprung a surprise by proposing amnesty for the red-shirt leaders so they can have a soft landing after the dispersal of the rally. Kasit Phirom, the foreign minister, recently spoke in Washington DC and called for reform of the Thai monarchy in a changing world. Anand Panyarachun, a former prime minister, views the red shirts as part of a social and political movement similar to the human rights movement in the US. He found nothing unusual in Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Somchai Wongsawat's request for His Majesty the King to mediate. Banharn Silapa-Archa was more straightforward, calling the move by Chavalit and Somchai as "inappropriate" because this crisis should not involve the monarchy.

7. The Democrat Party is at risk of being dissolved. The Election Commission has ruled that the party should be dissolved for financial irregularities. But the case will have to be vetted by the attorney general and it may or may not go to the Constitution Court. There have been attempts to accelerate this process to dissolve the party. If Abhisit dissolves Parliament, he would serve as acting PM. If the Democrats are dissolved while he is PM, there will be a political void. With a dissolution, there exists only the Senate. The Senate president will go through a process to pick a new PM. The Constitution could even be amended to allow a non-MP to serve as PM. Thus the motivation of some who call for a House dissolution.

8. PM Abhisit is indecisive. He is afraid that if troops move in to evict the red shirts, they might be met with armed resistance. If there are more deaths, he will be blamed. Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban and Army chief Gen Anupong Paochinda are also reluctant to use force. The indecisiveness and stalemate has raised security problems in the capital to boiling point.

9. Negotiations for a truce are difficult. Abhisit has called the armed red shirts "terrorists". If he were to hold talks with the red shirts now, it would amount to negotiating with terrorists. It is difficult to distinguish the terrorists from the innocent protesters.

10. The mechanisms for maintaining law and order are breaking down. The police are doing virtually nothing against repeated red-shirt violations of the law. Illegal weapons are brought into Bangkok in vast quantities.

11. People in multicoloured shirts, tired of the chaos, are coming out to air the message of peace. They have been partially infiltrated by the yellow shirts, who are waiting anxiously for the government to take decisive action against the reds.

12. We are on the threshold of anarchy and a possible change of regime. If no action is taken or solution found, a clash between the reds and the multi-coloured shirts could take place again to widen the conflict. By that time, a civil war might not be avoided and it will be almost impossible handle.

13. All parties are playing at brinkmanship, holding the entire country hostage. Abhisit himself is caught between a red-shirt revolution and an impending military coup, as the situation appears already to be out of control.

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-- The Nation 2010-04-23

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At this juncture, I don’t believe the government has enough force behind it to stop this anarchy and chaos. If it can’t deal with this situation then is time to give in before this country become a joke if the world.

Never put a politician in charge of military, because they always they put good of themselves before the good of the country

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Largely in agreement with this analysis - wish most of this could be obtained peacefuly as much of it is a 'just' cause and would benefit Thailand - whatever the outcome of the proptests this cultural revolution will continue - it's unstoppable as the old elite fight, kick and scream against it. Let's pray for a peaceful new era.

Edit: spelling

Edited by ChiangMaiFun
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Thanong tells

"6. I am surprised by the change of heart of many characters at this juncture. Rosana Tositrakul, a progressive senator, sprung a surprise by proposing amnesty for the red-shirt leaders so they can have a soft landing after the dispersal of the rally. Kasit Phirom, the foreign minister, recently spoke in Washington DC and called for reform of the Thai monarchy in a changing world. Anand Panyarachun, a former prime minister, views the red shirts as part of a social and political movement similar to the human rights movement in the US. He found nothing unusual in Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Somchai Wongsawat's request for His Majesty the King to mediate. Banharn Silapa-Archa was more straightforward, calling the move by Chavalit and Somchai as "inappropriate" because this crisis should not involve the monarchy."

Banharn knows perfectly that he other ones are 100% right. He's just playing a role . And probably Thanong also. Why do not tell the truth? Only a few old nostalgic farangs do not understand.

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Never put a politician in charge of military, because they always they put good of themselves before the good of the country

Not in a developed, civilsed country.

I think you will find that Winston Churchill (plus others) would take exception to your comment.

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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country. The army and the police do nothing to stop the protests - for the simple reason they support the "reds" don't they. Anyone can see that.

The chief of the army already suggested that Abhisit dissolve the house. That was to allow him an opportunity to save face. Beacuse the next military coup is about to happen instead. I give it three days at the most.

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Whilst not in total agreement with the statement, particularly the the idea of Suthep as a pacifist, the one place, ironically, there might be broad agreement is here, raising as it does many of the points about which we have all been bickering.

It is probably nothing to do with democracy as many have said, but it has grown beyond Thaksin. There are some 'thugs" in the Reds, there are some who are there by default but there are many who have a grievance and feel they have found a voice in this rag-tag bag, led by apparent nutters but who are in reality chaps that have been in Thai politics a long long time.

I often say that the ultimate irony is that Thais will wait for hours and hours for something to happen, napping, grazing, chatting laughing, soap-watching with the patience of saints...but they are as impatient as toddlers when it comes to politics, a point born out here.

But ultimately, this impatience is also a fear - it is a fear of the unknown as to what will happen in the not too distant future when something about which we cannot speak will take place, an event that comes to us all as sure as night follows day. Really it is this that they cannot wait for as it will bring an upheaval unheard of in the last 70 years on national and personal level for many many of the country's citizens. They cannot wait with the uncertainty of what that vacuum will hold. Yet here, I do lay some blame across the board of Thai society, as there has been a mass complacency as if it would never happen, caused by so very many from the villages to the staterooms having had their noses in the troughs for so long, that it has been allowed to get to this point. :)

Edited by danc
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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country. The army and the police do nothing to stop the protests - for the simple reason they support the "reds" don't they. Anyone can see that.

The chief of the army already suggested that Abhisit dissolve the house. That was to allow him an opportunity to save face. Beacuse the next military coup is about to happen instead. I give it three days at the most.

A very simplistic view of the situation. I think that the Government have been very restrained with these loonies and have been reluctant to take a heavy hand because they are hoping to avoid or minimize casualties. Unfortunately for them, the red shirts have taken advantage of this and upped the ante to escalate the confrontation which as sure as night follows day, WILL come.

The sad part about it is that many rank and file red shirts who are rallying on the mistaken belief that this is all about democracy will be merely cannon fodder thanks to Thaksin and the red shirt leaders to further their political goals. The red shirts have been let get away with too much for too long so in their mind, they can do anything with impunity which of course will not be.

A sad sad day for Thailand.

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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country. The army and the police do nothing to stop the protests - for the simple reason they support the "reds" don't they. Anyone can see that.

The chief of the army already suggested that Abhisit dissolve the house. That was to allow him an opportunity to save face. Beacuse the next military coup is about to happen instead. I give it three days at the most.

A very simplistic view of the situation. I think that the Government have been very restrained with these loonies and have been reluctant to take a heavy hand because they are hoping to avoid or minimize casualties. Unfortunately for them, the red shirts have taken advantage of this and upped the ante to escalate the confrontation which as sure as night follows day, WILL come.

The sad part about it is that many rank and file red shirts who are rallying on the mistaken belief that this is all about democracy will be merely cannon fodder thanks to Thaksin and the red shirt leaders to further their political goals. The red shirts have been let get away with too much for too long so in their mind, they can do anything with impunity which of course will not be.

A sad sad day for Thailand.

I'm sorry but this is very simplistic thinking - we are at the cusp of a cultural revolution - Thaksin is just a small part of it - some parts we cannot discuss (but the OP alludes to)- some we can. Abhisit HAS to call an election - with dates. Even his Army masters have said there has to be a dissolution - he should stop clinging onto power and let the people decide.

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I agree with this entire editorial, especially the risks of anarchy and a civil war, due to conflicting interests and pressures not to act.

But here is where strong leadership would make a difference and where Thai culture is hurting the process rather than helping it.

In any political situation, there are conflicting interests. The key is to get your position across in a compelling way. The Pheu Thai position is compelling. The democrats really have no position and nothing to fight for except to maintain the status quo. That is hardly inspiring and difficult to back, particularly when the Pheu Thai position offers people REAL value, such as universal health care.

Abhisit's reluctance to listen to the red shirts, and rather debate with them is hurting the process. He needs to deal with the situation, not fight it or argue against it. His job is to bring people together not to polarize them. That is what he did with his TV debates. Yes, he looked better than Nattawut and co, but he created enemies in doing so.

Now he has switched tactics and wants to be seen as patient, conciliatory and fair. Very honorable, very "Thai" but totally inappropriate. It is like he is driving a car and trying to switch between drive and reverse at the same time. It even looks awkward.

To resolve this conflict will be tough, no doubt, but with his weak leadership, Abhisit has become part of the problem, rather than part of the solution.

Edited by Redsunset
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Just a quick notice before everyone gets their teeth into this, given the highly inflammatory nature of some posts and posters in the News forum, we are instituting a zero tolerance policy with regards to posting inflammatory comments, comments advocating violence, trollish comments, and flames. You will receive an automatic posting rights suspension for this behavior in the News forum. Bear that in mind when posting.

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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country. The army and the police do nothing to stop the protests - for the simple reason they support the "reds" don't they. Anyone can see that.

The chief of the army already suggested that Abhisit dissolve the house. That was to allow him an opportunity to save face. Beacuse the next military coup is about to happen instead. I give it three days at the most.

So dissolve the house, and then? As you say the police supports the red, so will they be in charge after the reds take over? That will be fun. I'm not yellow but I hate the corrupt police and thats why I hate the reds. They must be corrupt because the police supports them and of course their dear leader Thaksin.

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I'm sorry but this is very simplistic thinking - we are at the cusp of a cultural revolution - Thaksin is just a small part of it - some parts we cannot discuss (but the OP alludes to)- some we can. Abhisit HAS to call an election - with dates. Even his Army masters have said there has to be a dissolution - he should stop clinging onto power and let the people decide.

I still don't believe that Thaksin is just a small part of it.

While Thaksin was PM and while he was care-taker PM, he did nothing but try to control everything for his own benefit.

While his puppets were PM, they did nothing but try and whitewash Thaksin's crimes and get him back here.

And during these protests, they have said that once they are in power, they will try and bring him back.

Until he is out of the picture, there will always be *large* opposition to the reds, not for their stands on "democracy" and the poor, but for their stand on Thaksin.

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Does this mean some of the regular posters here will find their bars closed?

Oh what a shame.

But the story was well written and only the final conclusion is to be seen now.

Will we get a peaceful agreement between the Old ruling Elite and the new elite or will there be wide spread bloodshead?

All things man makes reach an end.

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Same old anti-red shirt lies trotted out...give us a break.

The rural people might be simple folk but they are not totally stupid....they know disenfranchisement when they see it...the red shirts are there to get a better economic deal for themselves by having an early election which they believe they will win, but the propagandists tell us it is to get Thaksin his millions back, make him the president or the 'weaken' the monarchy...it's blatant scaremongering...

When we look at this 'analysis' and see who are supposed to be the "chief supporters" of the red-shirts are according to the author, it's just about everybody in the country, except, of course, farangs who post on TV...and it's not old money vs new money....it's tons of money vs no money

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Same old anti-red shirt lies trotted out...give us a break.

The rural people might be simple folk but they are not totally stupid....they know disenfranchisement when they see it...the red shirts are there to get a better economic deal for themselves by having an early election which they believe they will win, but the propagandists tell us it is to get Thaksin his millions back, make him the president or the 'weaken' the monarchy...it's blatant scaremongering...

When we look at this 'analysis' and see who are supposed to be the "chief supporters" of the red-shirts are according to the author, it's just about everybody in the country, except, of course, farangs who post on TV...and it's not old money vs new money....it's tons of money vs no money

Hey

Angry are you?

I am on your side so relax.

There are wealthy who are backing the revolt or are you unaware that Thaksan is rich.

HAAAA

But I want a new constitution and the monarchy removed totally from the political running of Thailand.

Is that what you want?

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Swift elections should be held. To avoid vote buying it should be illigal to cash out more than 50000 per day from the bank. A 30 year jailtime should be imposed for vote buying. During preparation to the elections politicians should not be allowed to travel to avoid they bring money out to the provinces. Voters should sign an affidavit that they have not received any money for voting, transportation etc. Voters receiving money for their votes should be punished with 10 years in jail.

This would hopefully give a fair election and maybe a result both sides could accept after the election. If Thailand just continues as usual with massive vote buying nobody trusts the elections and it will end with the military taking over the government.

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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country.

No Thai government has ever been in control of this country because nobody has ever had full support of the military. Fortunately Thailand does ok even though management is perpetually 'out to lunch'.

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Yes Thaivisa

This start of the topic is a high point from you here on freedom of speech.

Thanky ou for posting the story from The Nation.

It was an excellant read and I am glad you gave us a chance to read it.

Well done.

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Nice to see some mainstream are now picking up on what I posted weeks ago, and that this is a war between "old money" and "new money".

The article is correct in many area's but also missed out glaring facts, and also facts which of course cannot be talked about.

To put it bluntly this is MY OPINION, and only OPINION :

The reason this is happening now is due to the elections in 2011.

Democrats and Coalition parties have messed their beds and know they will lose the next election.

Unless they can implement a coup or change the constitution they are finished.

At present a coup is not possible, they need the "military reshuffle" in order to promote their people and then can hold a coup.

Based on this the elections in 2011 were likely never going to happen, after the reshuffle this year a coup would be implemented prior to elections, just like in 2006, a month before elections were due.

The "other side" of course knows of the plans for the military reshuffle and then coup and is stopping it from happening.

Army is split and with "third party snipers" taking out any commanders they will remain doing nothing.

Army (pro coup, pro reshuffle) can only call upon those commanders due to be promoted and "pro coup" to lead the soldiers, but they know now they will be sniper shot dead, so they will hide away.

Army (anti coup, anti present reshuffle plans) will leak all plans to the "third party" to ensure plans can never actually happen as any commanders will be sniper shot.

Police are simply fed up with all this bull, they hate the Army and know the Army play politics, so they just keep out of it totally, its not their fight.

So it simply boils down to one section of the elites want a coup, so they can forever change things and replace Democracy with fake Democracy. Camp 1 = Yellow and many middle class/privileged

The other section of the elite wants more democracy and is anti-coup and wants regime change. Camp 2 = Red and most normal Thais, the majority

In centuries gone it was this situation that often led to countries falling, as stronger neighbors would invade while the country is in turmoil over regime change.

Abhisit, by refusing to dissolve the house, is stuck in Camp 1, he has made his bed and there he must lie now.

Army is split 50/50 between the camps and Camp 1 is trying to reshuffle to make Camp 1 in total Army control. And there is the problem, all laid out bare and why it is happening now, before the Military reshuffle where Camp 1 aims to put in charge all "pro Camp 1" people and then hold a coup not long after.

Edited by LevelHead
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I'm not quite sure why some members still look upon this whole mess as a "cultural revolution" of any sort. To start with, a few hundred thousand, possibly as little as 100,000 people out of 61 Million rioting on the streets of Bangkok is by no means a representative part of the population.

Their demands have nothing to do with culture nor are they fighting a repressive regime. By mentioning this riot here in the same sentence with a “cultural revolution” you are insulting real “freedom fighters” like for example in Burma.

What is taking place in Bangkok right now can not be called a demonstration anymore but is a full blown terrorist attack which is evident by the use of weapons of war by the reds. Yes, not all of them are, a lot of them are simply here because they believed their leaders that they would get more money when Thalsin is back and because they are getting paid to be here. However, there is a sizeable core of terrorists active and determined to execute a coup.

Thaksin, who is the financial powerhouse behind the riots, is a rightfully convicted criminal. Besides his financial rape of the country, his more than questionable war on drugs left thousands dead without trial.

The current government has shown unbelievable patience, but is forced to act now, since the RPG attack on the fuel tank and last nights attack on the BTS have lifted this sad affair onto a whole new level.

It is going to get bloody again, but under no circumstances can this government be blamed for any collateral damage or the death or injury of any rioters. They had more than enough warning.

Edited by BKjohn
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A very simplistic view of the situation. I think that the Government have been very restrained with these loonies and have been reluctant to take a heavy hand because they are hoping to avoid or minimize casualties. Unfortunately for them, the red shirts have taken advantage of this and upped the ante to escalate the confrontation which as sure as night follows day, WILL come.

The sad part about it is that many rank and file red shirts who are rallying on the mistaken belief that this is all about democracy will be merely cannon fodder thanks to Thaksin and the red shirt leaders to further their political goals. The red shirts have been let get away with too much for too long so in their mind, they can do anything with impunity which of course will not be.

A sad sad day for Thailand.

Wow! And that came from The Nation? I'm impressed. It must be their most accurate analysis of the situation yet and their best article in years, really.

As I (and others) have said many times before, the current government is illegal and only in power because of a coup, which was supported and accepted by the elite ruling classes so they could continue their oppression.

Abhisit, please leave and stop pretending that you represent democracy - clearly you don't. You may be a good man, but you don't have to be bullied any longer by the elite to continue, what everyone knows is, a failing two-tier system. Just because you were educated in the UK, it doesn't make you any more fit to transform Thailand. Just hold an election to find out whether you really are.

A very simplistic view of the situation. = A very honest and accurate account of what is going on and what is going to happen. And you don't need to make this issue complicated. It's straightforward - the people want their power back.

A sad sad day for Thailand. = A sad sad day for the old money elite and those who love and make profit from the status quo.

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This the 'truth' according to the Nation, though I don't think even moderate Reds would see this list as definitive.

ChiangMaiFun and Redsunset make valid points, Thailand is sick and needs a revolution, even an almost revolution to shake the old guard into waking up to the 21st century. I disagree that the Puea Thai have the answers, their number 1 stated objective is to return to the 1997 constitution (and we all know why) which will bring further strife.

It's been traumatic, and we should admit we are dealing with a protest group here who come from nothing, have nothing to lose and see total anarchy as a means to pressure for change, unfortunately I don't think their leaders are very good, they seem to lack any plan other than 'confront and don't give an inch', and they might get away with it because no one is allowed to remove them without cracking skulls. But at the end of it all, I think the Elite now realise they have to loosen their grip and monopoly on power, as much as the country has proven to itself that Thaksin is a crook and not fit to lead (even if lots of people still believe it's acceptable for crooks to lead Thailand).

This of course doesn't solve the myriad problems of law and order, abuse of power, wonky loyalties, unfair constitutions and so on, but once the power game becomes a stalemate (probably after a lot more deaths) both sides will be compelled to sit down and thrash out these issue.

I don't believe an immediate dissolution is the answer (it's an insincere demand) and I think the Govt's latest offer of 6 or even 4 months is very reasonable as a compromise, pressure needs to be privately brought to bear on the UDD leaders to come to the negotiating table, the public as a whole should be bringing pressure to bear on them (once off protests demaiding 'immediate talks' in cities across Thailand, peacefully, perhaps), until this small band of destructive men are isolated into non-violent course as the only way out for them.

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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country. The army and the police do nothing to stop the protests - for the simple reason they support the "reds" don't they. Anyone can see that.

The chief of the army already suggested that Abhisit dissolve the house. That was to allow him an opportunity to save face. Beacuse the next military coup is about to happen instead. I give it three days at the most.

A very simplistic view of the situation. I think that the Government have been very restrained with these loonies and have been reluctant to take a heavy hand because they are hoping to avoid or minimize casualties. Unfortunately for them, the red shirts have taken advantage of this and upped the ante to escalate the confrontation which as sure as night follows day, WILL come.

The sad part about it is that many rank and file red shirts who are rallying on the mistaken belief that this is all about democracy will be merely cannon fodder thanks to Thaksin and the red shirt leaders to further their political goals. The red shirts have been let get away with too much for too long so in their mind, they can do anything with impunity which of course will not be.

A sad sad day for Thailand.

sadly I believe that much of what you say is right, Wadsy, and on the little that I know that we may only be hours away from the day of reckoning and that now, during and in the aftermath, most farangs including will not understand what is happening here but in too many cases that won't stop some of the know-alls who fill these threads with their own half-baked knowledge and understanding of Thailand from saying some very embarrassing things on here

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Just a quick notice before everyone gets their teeth into this, given the highly inflammatory nature of some posts and posters in the News forum, we are instituting a zero tolerance policy with regards to posting inflammatory comments, comments advocating violence, trollish comments, and flames. You will receive an automatic posting rights suspension for this behavior in the News forum. Bear that in mind when posting.

quite right!

well done

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Abhisit has been trying to negotiate with the red shirts... trouble is, the red shirt leaders are terrorists... he has mistakenly said that the terrorists are these shadowy soldiers in black... but the real terrorists are the obvious leaders on stage in red. You can't negotiate with terrorists - i.e., the red shirt leaders.

Edited by Redsunset
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As I (and others) have said many times before, the current government is illegal and only in power because of a coup, which was supported and accepted by the elite ruling classes so they could continue their oppression.

A very simplistic view of the situation. = A very honest and accurate account of what is going on and what is going to happen. And you don't need to make this issue complicated. It's straightforward - the people want their power back.

The current government was voted in by parliament and is absolutely legal. Get your facts right. As far as the peoples power is concerned you are more blue eyed than is imaginable. These riots have nothing what so ever to do with the "people getting their power back" - do you really think that Thailand or any country for that matter cout be led by people with the sophistication and IQ of an Isaani rice farmer?

Or do you think Thaksin or one of the riot leaders who have told their followers to burn Bangkok down would be a suitable leader?

What you are writing here is nothing but red propaganda

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When I read people talking about dissolution in 4 months, Thaksin, negotiation etc.. they simply do not get it do they, they just do not understand Thailand.

This is about a COUP, and preventing the military re-shuffle that will lead to a COUP before any election ever gets a chance to happen.

The only way to stop it is to get the House dissolved now.

Which is why even Annupong has said "Dissolve the House now".

The PRO COUP group are all set to promote their clan to all lead positions and will then lead a COUP and take away all democracy. This is why you see Army, Police, Reds and everyone else all in the middle and all trying to apply pressure to get the House dissolved BEFORE the reshuffle.

If the reshuffle is done then democracy in Thailand is dead and buried.

Be aware of the real facts and do not fall into the abyss of believing the propaganda.

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Abhisit/Government have already lost control of this country. The army and the police do nothing to stop the protests - for the simple reason they support the "reds" don't they. Anyone can see that.

The chief of the army already suggested that Abhisit dissolve the house. That was to allow him an opportunity to save face. Beacuse the next military coup is about to happen instead. I give it three days at the most.

So dissolve the house, and then? As you say the police supports the red, so will they be in charge after the reds take over? That will be fun. I'm not yellow but I hate the corrupt police and thats why I hate the reds. They must be corrupt because the police supports them and of course their dear leader Thaksin.

I totally agree with you regarding the brown shirts motives, I don't know of any brown shirt who joined for the love of law and order on the contrary they all join the force because of the fat bonuses they get from extortion. (same in Brazil)

:)

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