Election Victory, But A Rude Awakening For The Thai Democrats

[webfact]

SIDEDLINES

Election victory, but a rude awakening for the Democrats

By Sopon Onkgara

The Democrat Party might have been euphoric after its by-election victory over its chief rival Pheu Thai Party. But with a winning margin of less than 15,000 votes - 96,000 over 81,000 votes - out of 380,000 eligible voters in the constituency, it was a close shave.

The victory was actually achieved by the sacrifice of the New Politics Party, whose candidate decided to withdraw from the contest after it was known that Pheu Thai would field a red-shirt member accused of terrorism after the mayhem in May.

The Democrats therefore, can claim no pride. If the New Politics Party had gone ahead with the contest, with a vote of around 20,000, that would certainly have catapulted the red-shirt candidate to victory and left the Democrats with red faces and a bruised ego.

Although unscathed, the Democrats must be fully convinced they are vulnerable to a loss if a general election is held in the near future. There are no encouraging signs, even if the poll takes place when the government's term expires next year.

If the Democrats are realistic, they should do away with their arrogance and the belief that the people will always stay with them when the other alternative is the faction fighting for Thaksin Shinawatra, who will use all means to win power.

True to form, the Democrats will have the next few days to boast about their popularity. But the election victory can only be considered symbolic because their rival candidate remains in prison and did not have a chance to speak to the electorate directly.

Still, there are ominous signs for all Thais, and reconciliation remains elusive despite the ongoing efforts by Prime Minister Abhisit to form committees to bring about some sort of compromise and political truce before the next general election.

Do not expect the Democrats to feel much gratitude toward the New Politics Party or the People's Alliance for Democracy, which jointly campaigned for people to vote for the Democrat candidate simply because they do not want the red shirts to gain leverage and a claim of popularity.

Still, it is a disturbing fact that at least 81,000 people voted for a red-shirt ringleader who spent over two months whipping up anti-government sentiment during illegal street rallies, which eventually led to the stockpiling of war weapons and armed clashes with troops.

All of these efforts were funded by political networks and cronies of Thaksin Shinawatra, who remains undaunted in his continuing attempt to topple the Abhisit government by hook or by crook. He celebrated his 61st birthday yesterday and his Twitter messages still encourage the red shirts and Pheu Thai to keep the home fires burning. Never mind the possible further rounds of terror and arson in the next confrontation.

The Democrats found their victory spoiled when a bomb exploded near the red shirts' former encampment site at Rajprasong. A man died, one was seriously injured, while others suffered cuts and minor wounds. The police have yet to come up with clues. The bomb blast reminded city people of the red-shirt terror at a time when the national trauma remains unhealed.

Of course, peace will never come as long as Thaksin remains a toxic figure in the political equation. He has hired teams of high-priced lobbyists, PR people and lawyers who work as campaigners, telling the world that Thaksin is good despite his status as a fugitive criminal with many legal charges still pending against him.

He has fled prosecution to voluntary exile and changed his citizenship to Montenegrin, Ugandan and Nicaraguan. His sinister games can never be underestimated as long as he controls a huge war chest from many sources of revenue, through investments and nominee stockholdings of blue-chip corporate entities.

Thaksin and his networks have been pressing the government to do away with the emergency decree so that they can revive the red-shirt movements and other campaigns to destabilise Abhisit, who will not be allowed to succeed in economic restoration and national security.

They might not need to put in much effort if the Thai delegate returns from Brazil with the bad news that the country has lost the Preah Vihear temple complex and neighbouring areas to Cambodia, if the World Heritage Commission accepts Hun Sen's version of the disputed border territories. This in addition, perhaps, to massive offshore petroleum resources.

The people will then find the national leader no longer fit to rule.

-- The Nation 2010-07-27

[jackdawson]

a 10 point victory (in politics) is NOT close

now w bush losing to gore (in the popular vote) yet still becoming prez .; now that's close

[hammered]

The PAD guys have been sniping at Abhisit and the Dems for ages. Quite a comfortable win actually and why anyone would be surprised that the red candidate got 80k votes in a constituency where they have a very big base is just silly. Sure if the turnout had been higher the Dems would have had a much bigger majority but that they won so well on a sub 50% turnout in a constituency with a lot of red support is actually a little surprising.

[mogoso]

Are the Democrats in Thailand a Consevative Party?

Demos won this election, but beat the Red Shirts which considering their backing by Communists Socialists and Unions (supported by such groups as SEIU International) are even further to the left.

The Demos are supported by normally conservative Elites but also the majority backing of the College Profs, who generally back leftist leaning parties. Does that make them a centrist party.

Oh I'm so confused.

[RedNIvar]

a 10 point victory (in politics) is NOT close

now w bush losing to gore (in the popular vote) yet still becoming prez .; now that's close

Agree, not close based on actual votes. But I think their comparison is based on eligible voters. There was less than 50% turn out.

Eligible votes 380000 Democracts 96000 25.3% PTP 81000 21.3% Majority 15000 3.9%

[TallForeigner]

I just don't get it if people are suddenly writing about consituency 6 having been a PT stronghold.

This must be pure propaganda spin. Before the election the democrats were predicting an easy victory because they claimed that the constituency is a democrat stronghold. In the last three elections in that particular constituency the democrats have always won. The poor PM coming from that constituency who died of cancer was a democrat. A constituency with a consistent history of voting for the democratic party can hardly be declared as a stronghold for the PT.

I feel that a party with a candidate who is in jail facing charges of terrorism and thus was unable to rally properly has got a massive disadvantage; furthermore all opposition media is closed or heavily censored whereas all government and official and otherwise available mouthpieces and media are loudly lobbying and shouting for the democrats. The fact that Korkaew did still get more than 40% of the votes should be deeply worrying for the democrats. Every single vote for Korkaew is a strong kick into the balls for the present government. 80'000+ kicks into the balls...Ouch, that hurts!!

@mogoso

Forget about left or right - that's a Western concept and it is not applicable to Thai politics.

[seri thai]

I just don't get it if people are suddenly writing about consituency 6 having been a PT stronghold.

This must be pure propaganda spin. Before the election the democrats were predicting an easy victory because they claimed that the constituency is a democrat stronghold. In the last three elections in that particular constituency the democrats have always won. The poor PM coming from that constituency who died of cancer was a democrat. A constituency with a consistent history of voting for the democratic party can hardly be declared as a stronghold for the PT.

I feel that a party with a candidate who is in jail facing charges of terrorism and thus was unable to rally properly has got a massive disadvantage; furthermore all opposition media is closed or heavily censored whereas all government and official and otherwise available mouthpieces and media are loudly lobbying and shouting for the democrats. The fact that Korkaew did still get more than 40% of the votes should be deeply worrying for the democrats. Every single vote for Korkaew is a strong kick into the balls for the present government. 80'000+ kicks into the balls...Ouch, that hurts!!

@mogoso

Forget about left or right - that's a Western concept and it is not applicable to Thai politics.

In order to avoid quoting Hitler I will quote Churchill (no socialist)....

“It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried"

and:

“The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.”

Where to next?

[Piengrudee]

With a winning margin, 96,000 over 81,000 votes - out of 380,000 eligible voters in the constituency, IMHO it is NOT a close shave.

[jayjay0]

The PAD guys have been sniping at Abhisit and the Dems for ages. Quite a comfortable win actually and why anyone would be surprised that the red candidate got 80k votes in a constituency where they have a very big base is just silly. Sure if the turnout had been higher the Dems would have had a much bigger majority but that they won so well on a sub 50% turnout in a constituency with a lot of red support is actually a little surprising.

I can understand the apathy towards voting by the Dem.

But I can not understand it by the PAD here was there big chance maybe they don't have the support they claim. As for there candidate being locked up in Jail and unable to speak. Did he not only spend two months speaking but also showing what he was all about.

I would be inerested in hearing of a politician in the world who would consider a victory of over %10 a narrow squeeze.

[Ricardo]

This reminder to the Dems, that they still have a lot of work to do, before they're seen to be helping the poor and reaping the electoral-rewards, will hopefully lead them to redouble their efforts in this direction. Which can only be a good thing.

That a red-shirt leader, campaigning from prison, can get so many votes so soon after the riots & burnings, perhaps shows that some of their claimed-concerns do find support. Even though PTP are hardly an inspiring bunch of people.

The current-PM & his party & coalition-partners need to be seen clearly to offer a better, and more effective, alternative to DL and his rent-a-mob tactics. Perhaps it was a good thing, for the Democrats at least, that the red-shirt leaders followed-orders & declined the offer of an election this autumn.

[laocowboy2]

a 10 point victory (in politics) is NOT close

now w bush losing to gore (in the popular vote) yet still becoming prez .; now that's close

Agree, not close based on actual votes. But I think their comparison is based on eligible voters. There was less than 50% turn out.

Eligible votes 380000 Democracts 96000 25.3% PTP 81000 21.3% Majority 15000 3.9%

Thank's for saving me having to do the maths. That was exactly what struck me. Here we have a city that tends (along with the South) to give the Democrats more seats than the other parties get, that was most damaged by the riots, that has had its tourism business trashed - and the voters are so unimpressed with the lot of them that turnout was under 50%.

I think this by-election has made sure that there will be no general election this year (and probably not next either if they can avoid it). The Democrats would not do well on this showing.

[Piengrudee]

http://webboard.mthai.com/16/2006-11-08/280256.html Just wondering if this guy is in jail already. . http://webboard.mthai.com/16/2006-11-08/280256.html

[stepenwolf1958]

This result is expected.

Such a small difference in votes is also expected.

After all, Bangkok always belongs to Democrats and never voted for any party from rural parts of Thailand. Even opposite, Bangkok was always expressed animosity towards people from poor parts of the state.

But very big surprise is( should to be for Democrats to analyse) restraint from voting

This is WHY Democrats was very nervous about this by elections.

They were afraid people might to ignore this election, as that happened. In either country are not a problem in the election voters. The problem are those who do not vote. Those people many times changed politic map of many countries.

The Democrat Party might have been euphoric after its by-election victory over its chief rival Pheu Thai Party. But with a winning margin of less than 15,000 votes - 96,000 over 81,000 votes - out of 380,000 eligible voters in the constituency, it was a close shave.

Exactly this is the problem. If we "copy and paste" the results of these elections as head of state, one can easily imagine what would have been the result of the elections at the level of the entire state.

If we consider recent bloodshed in Bangkok, will be easy to see Democrats are loosing support of voters in many provinces.

That is what Democrats are afraid of and with reason.

[stepenwolf1958]

a 10 point victory (in politics) is NOT close

now w bush losing to gore (in the popular vote) yet still becoming prez .; now that's close

Agree, not close based on actual votes. But I think their comparison is based on eligible voters. There was less than 50% turn out.

Eligible votes 380000 Democracts 96000 25.3% PTP 81000 21.3% Majority 15000 3.9%

Thank's for saving me having to do the maths. That was exactly what struck me. Here we have a city that tends (along with the South) to give the Democrats more seats than the other parties get, that was most damaged by the riots, that has had its tourism business trashed - and the voters are so unimpressed with the lot of them that turnout was under 50%.

I think this by-election has made sure that there will be no general election this year (and probably not next either if they can avoid it). The Democrats would not do well on this showing.

In my country if you don't have 50% + 1 vote of eligible voters, election has to be again. What Thai law says?

[stepenwolf1958]

a 10 point victory (in politics) is NOT close

now w bush losing to gore (in the popular vote) yet still becoming prez .; now that's close

Agree, not close based on actual votes. But I think their comparison is based on eligible voters. There was less than 50% turn out.

Eligible votes 380000 Democracts 96000 25.3% PTP 81000 21.3% Majority 15000 3.9%

Thank's for saving me having to do the maths. That was exactly what struck me. Here we have a city that tends (along with the South) to give the Democrats more seats than the other parties get, that was most damaged by the riots, that has had its tourism business trashed - and the voters are so unimpressed with the lot of them that turnout was under 50%.

I think this by-election has made sure that there will be no general election this year (and probably not next either if they can avoid it). The Democrats would not do well on this showing.

Agreed. In my opinion this is not a victory and i am sure democrats know that. They are trying to use this by election to predict a global picture and they saw it is not good at all so will be no elections this year for sure, even PM promissed to foreign media.

However, they are scared with this result. It is just 25.3% in BANGKOK and Bangkok was always base for Democrats. If this is situation in Bangkok, what might be in rural parts? Democrats know for that and they are not going to have elections this year it is for sure. In that case, it is just the question(easy to guess) what can happen as reaction of the opposition than. Scary.

[stepenwolf1958]

http://webboard.mthai.com/16/2006-11-08/280256.html Just wondering if this guy is in jail already. . http://webboard.mthai.com/16/2006-11-08/280256.html

Why he would be in jail?

Translation of that link you provided is not good so i am not sure but as i think they demand resignation of that supreme comander in Police?

I don't think it is wrong to ask his resignation after all what happened. If you ask me, resignation is MORAL act and should to be done already.

Correct me if i misunderstood, please.

[laocowboy2]

a 10 point victory (in politics) is NOT close

now w bush losing to gore (in the popular vote) yet still becoming prez .; now that's close

Agree, not close based on actual votes. But I think their comparison is based on eligible voters. There was less than 50% turn out.

Eligible votes 380000 Democracts 96000 25.3% PTP 81000 21.3% Majority 15000 3.9%

Thank's for saving me having to do the maths. That was exactly what struck me. Here we have a city that tends (along with the South) to give the Democrats more seats than the other parties get, that was most damaged by the riots, that has had its tourism business trashed - and the voters are so unimpressed with the lot of them that turnout was under 50%.

I think this by-election has made sure that there will be no general election this year (and probably not next either if they can avoid it). The Democrats would not do well on this showing.

Agreed. In my opinion this is not a victory and i am sure democrats know that. They are trying to use this by election to predict a global picture and they saw it is not good at all so will be no elections this year for sure, even PM promissed to foreign media.

However, they are scared with this result. It is just 25.3% in BANGKOK and Bangkok was always base for Democrats. If this is situation in Bangkok, what might be in rural parts? Democrats know for that and they are not going to have elections this year it is for sure. In that case, it is just the question(easy to guess) what can happen as reaction of the opposition than. Scary.

Just saw this "Poll reflects Government's Popularity

A recent poll indicates that 38% of respondants believe the Democrat Party will win the next general election. The poll cites the government's policies and the prime minister's popularity as reason for support. 60% of the responsdants find political conflicts worrisome.

Implying perhaps that the other 62% do not believe that the Democrats will win.

[way2muchcoffee]

The PM did not promise to foreign media that there would be an election this year. The offer was made during negotiations with redshirt leaders during their illegal and violent occupation of central Bangkok. The redshirt leaders rejected the offer and declined to negotiate further. This resulted in thousands injured and many deaths as protesters repeatedly attacked military lines during the containment operation. At the end we saw the immolation of Bangkok by redshirt supporters.

The PM did suggest recently that elections could be held early next year. The primary requirement being that all sides actively come to the table to begin a much needed reconciliation. The PTP has thus far refused to participate and flatly opposes any kind of reconciliation efforts made by the government. Their supporters have continued to take up arms and at present are waging a guerrilla war against the government and citizens of Thailand.

This is why an early election is unlikely.

Edited July 27, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[stepenwolf1958]

With a winning margin, 96,000 over 81,000 votes - out of 380,000 eligible voters in the constituency, IMHO it is NOT a close shave.

We call that defeat. To "won" just with 25.3% of eligible voters would become a nightmare for any politician in this world.

[stepenwolf1958]

The PM did not promise to foreign media that there would be an election this year. The offer was made during negotiations with redshirt leaders during their illegal and violent occupation of central Bangkok. The redshirt leaders rejected the offer and declined to negotiate further. We all know what happened next.

The PM did suggest recently that elections could be held early next year. The primary requirement being that all sides actively come to the table to begin a much needed reconciliation. The PTP has thus far refused to participate and flatly opposes any kind of reconciliation. Their supporters have continued to take up arms and at present are waging a guerrilla war against the government and citizens of Thailand.

This is why an early election is unlikely.

Not ruth. Read The Bankok Post so you could see there were press conference after the bloodshed and he REALLY promissed elections"rather soon then later"... Check that out so we can continue to talk, please.

[stepenwolf1958]

With a winning margin, 96,000 over 81,000 votes - out of 380,000 eligible voters in the constituency, IMHO it is NOT a close shave.

We call that defeat. To "won" just with 25.3% of eligible voters would become a nightmare for any politician in this world.

I'm sorry but calling this guerila is cartoonish way of talk. Do you have any idea WHAT really guerila IS???

[ballpoint]

I just don't get it if people are suddenly writing about consituency 6 having been a PT stronghold.

This must be pure propaganda spin. Before the election the democrats were predicting an easy victory because they claimed that the constituency is a democrat stronghold. In the last three elections in that particular constituency the democrats have always won. The poor PM coming from that constituency who died of cancer was a democrat. A constituency with a consistent history of voting for the democratic party can hardly be declared as a stronghold for the PT.

I feel that a party with a candidate who is in jail facing charges of terrorism and thus was unable to rally properly has got a massive disadvantage; furthermore all opposition media is closed or heavily censored whereas all government and official and otherwise available mouthpieces and media are loudly lobbying and shouting for the democrats. The fact that Korkaew did still get more than 40% of the votes should be deeply worrying for the democrats. Every single vote for Korkaew is a strong kick into the balls for the present government. 80'000+ kicks into the balls...Ouch, that hurts!!

@mogoso

Forget about left or right - that's a Western concept and it is not applicable to Thai politics.

Why not actually look at the facts, rather than spouting lies? The last three elections, prior to the by-election, were 2001, 2005 and 2007. The 2006 election was declared void. Constituency 6 has three seats. TRT won all three seat is 2001 and 2005. In 2005 it was far ahead of the Democrats, with around 60% of the vote. In 2007, the Democrats came 1st, 2nd and 4th, the PPP 3rd, 5th and 6th. The Democrats averaged 104,869 votes across the three seats, the PPP 97,997. In the current by-election, the Democrats got around 96,000 votes, the PTP 81,000, not only a bigger absolute majority, but a bigger percentage as well. Not bad going despite the spin attempts to the contrary being made by reds and yellows. What strange bed fellows. Don't forget too that Constituency 6 is about as rural a constituency as it's possible to be in Bangkok, being out on the far northeastern edge, and can in no way be used as a test of how the middle class are voting.

This Soporn guy has an obvious agenda. He hints that the Democrats only won because the NPP graciously withdrew their candidate, and wastes no opportunity to snipe at the PM in this and other pieces. It certainly puts the lie to all the "yellow democrat" allegations made here. Perhaps his most deluded, but frightening, comments were

...They might not need to put in much effort if the Thai delegate returns from Brazil with the bad news that the country has lost the Preah Vihear temple complex and neighbouring areas to Cambodia, if the World Heritage Commission accepts Hun Sen's version of the disputed border territories. This in addition, perhaps, to massive offshore petroleum resources.

The people will then find the national leader no longer fit to rule.

If an international tribunal rules that a bit of land belongs to Cambodia, the PM is unfit to rule? What a weirdo.

[stepenwolf1958]

The PM did not promise to foreign media that there would be an election this year. The offer was made during negotiations with redshirt leaders during their illegal and violent occupation of central Bangkok. The redshirt leaders rejected the offer and declined to negotiate further. This resulted in thousands injured and many deaths as protesters repeatedly attacked military lines during the containment operation. At the end we saw the immolation of Bangkok by redshirt supporters.

The PM did suggest recently that elections could be held early next year. The primary requirement being that all sides actively come to the table to begin a much needed reconciliation. The PTP has thus far refused to participate and flatly opposes any kind of reconciliation efforts made by the government. Their supporters have continued to take up arms and at present are waging a guerrilla war against the government and citizens of Thailand.

This is why an early election is unlikely.

I'm sorry but calling this guerila is cartoonish way of talk. Do you have any idea WHAT really guerila IS???

P.S. Sorry to the mods if here is any. I posted wrong place previously.

[way2muchcoffee]

I'm sorry but calling this guerila is cartoonish way of talk. Do you have any idea WHAT really guerila IS???

P.S. Sorry to the mods if here is any. I posted wrong place previously.

would you prefer terrorism, public bombings, and assassination?

Edited July 27, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[stepenwolf1958]

The PM did not promise to foreign media that there would be an election this year. The offer was made during negotiations with redshirt leaders during their illegal and violent occupation of central Bangkok. The redshirt leaders rejected the offer and declined to negotiate further. This resulted in thousands injured and many deaths as protesters repeatedly attacked military lines during the containment operation. At the end we saw the immolation of Bangkok by redshirt supporters.

The PM did suggest recently that elections could be held early next year. The primary requirement being that all sides actively come to the table to begin a much needed reconciliation. The PTP has thus far refused to participate and flatly opposes any kind of reconciliation efforts made by the government. Their supporters have continued to take up arms and at present are waging a guerrilla war against the government and citizens of Thailand.

This is why an early election is unlikely.

Sorry mate, too much coffee or beer? Joking a bit, of course. No hard feelings, ok mate?

BOLDED in your statement is exactly the reason why SHOULD to make elections ASAP!

BTW that was suggested bt foreign diplomats also. So? Why not?

Let me tell you. Because fear of DEBACL. Read my lips d e b a c l e.

Cheers mate

[stepenwolf1958]

I'm sorry but calling this guerila is cartoonish way of talk. Do you have any idea WHAT really guerila IS???

P.S. Sorry to the mods if here is any. I posted wrong place previously.

would you prefer terrorism, public bombings, and assassination?

Do you think i am not normal to prefer such idiotic things? Mate, the point is: that WILL be for sure(or going tto be already) if no election general level.

That is what i prefer. Election is a cure for divisions in Thailand. Benefit for all but for recent Government, we could guess according to this so called victory.

[way2muchcoffee]

Do you think i am not normal to prefer such idiotic things? Mate, the point is: that WILL be for sure(or going tto be already) if no election general level.

That is what i prefer. Election is a cure for divisions in Thailand. Benefit for all but for recent Government, we could guess according to this so called victory.

Do you honestly believe that Democrat, Pheua Pandin, CTP, and BJT candidates will be able to campaign freely in the North and Northeast at this time without fear of harassment or violence?

During the televised negotiations that occurred early on in the occupation of Bangkok the redshirt leaders decried the constitution as the largest problem in Thailand and declared it the root of all of the troubles. Don't you think then that the constitution should be amended before the next general election so that we do not see history repeat itself?

Edited July 27, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[stepenwolf1958]

Do you think i am not normal to prefer such idiotic things? Mate, the point is: that WILL be for sure(or going tto be already) if no election general level.

That is what i prefer. Election is a cure for divisions in Thailand. Benefit for all but for recent Government, we could guess according to this so called victory.

Do you honestly believe that Democrat, CTP, and BJT candidates will be able to campaign freely in the North and Northeast at this time without fear of harassment or violence? YES, there is some risk about it but there is always a way. I don't want to sound sarcastic but to relocate loyal units as security is easy to do. IF we want to talk about importance of election ASAP, let's do it. That is something what SHOULD to be done and [b]DUTY of politicians is to protect interest of majority of citizens inspite of any risk.[/b] They have a HUGE amounts so now it's about the right time they deserve it, don't you think so?

(BTW, if we want to go deeper i would explain to you WHO and WHAT makes, initiated, all be like this as you said.)

During the televised negotiations that occurred early on in the occupation of Bangkok the redshirt leaders decried the constitution as the largest problem in Thailand. Don't you think that the constitution should be amended before the next general election?

Agreed. About the reds, let me tell you. They made a lot of tactical mistakes, operational also. Operational in politic. I said as a joke it is piece of cake to rule if oposition is like this in Thailand. Mistakes were on both sides but, don't you think the best way and chance for reconciliation is to make elections?

Believe me, i know what i am talking about and any waste of time for to make it-will make every next day of waiting to be harder, more dangerous.

I am interested very much all be good in Thailand and this is just how i see the way all to be in order and agaion Thailand will have it's smile. Now Thailand is so sad, land of sadness.

[BSJ]

What's amazing is:

1/ So many people didn't bother to vote. Which leads me to think that whoever won the by-election doesn't have the mandate of the people.

2/ The Reds are still strong and will be a major force in the next general election.

So, to paraphrase an old saying, I would say to you "It's not over till the Red party sings"!

[OzMick]

Interesting topic - funny that such a high percentage of posts (about the same as that of the losing Red candidate) come from the one poster, and another posts blatant mis-statements of the nature of the electorate.

To start with, a 15,000 winning margin is not a politician's nightmare - losing is the nightmare. That joy belongs to an alleged terrorist who has played his "get out of jail free" card, and still looks through cellbars.

Then we have the issue of low voter turnout. IMHO this was a result of complacency, and is not unusual in by-elections when a general election is expected in the fairly near future. The Dems were expected to win comfortably (as they did). OTOH, there was a big red push to get their candidate out of jail - was this the best they can do? In the general, I would expect the Dem incumbent to increase his percentage margin, as long as he doesn't get caught doing something nasty, and possibly even then.

You might also reflect that 15000 MARGIN is also a pretty big percentage of what the Reds can turn out when they promised millions - and without promises of big payouts to get them mobilised.