Exchange Rates

[nong38]

Rumblings from London and Washington indicate that another bout of money printing is about to hit the streets, this bad news for anyone looking at how many bts you get for your home currency. This is just another name, a fancy Dan name for devaluation. In the old country imports will go up and you will pay more for goods, taxes are already ear marked to go up and bebefits to be slashed in the UK, its bad news and more falls over the next few months should be expected in the exchange rate against the bhat. In the new year if QE begins to show and economies start to recover then the rate we get might start to improve but dont hold your breath there are some dark days ahead and this will find its way into the Thai economy as we all have less to spend and Thai traders cant understand why that is we dont spend like we did, no tips, refusing to pay higher prices to try and make up lost revenue( you know the Thai logic one) Western economics is not one they understand, maybe they were not taught it anytime or anywhere but its a lesson they should learn from but somehow I guess things will go along much as beforewith locals being dumbfounded as to why their takings are down and those farangs want so much more for their money now, is that why there are and will be so many angry traders around?

Dont forget to get your Natinwide money out before the 1st!

[Naam]

"...and those farangs want so much more for their money now, is that why there are and will be so many angry traders around?"

why do i have the strong feeling there will be many more angry expats than angry thai traders?

[nong38]

Are you suggesting a score draw mr Worf? You might well be right. still better of here than at home!

[ESB7]

With inflation running at 5% in the UK, dont expect too much more printing, a few members of the board are already calling for interest rate rises.

[nong38]

Now thats whay should happen but it seems that will be sacrificed to keep the econmy on the go, bad news for savers aand news for us. For everone who has saved for happy retirement these are not the golden years we were looked forward to:annoyed:

[britmaveric]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

[telldem]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

Really???. I see the dollar going down to 25 baht , euro to 35 baht, and pound to 45 baht by June of next year.

[britmaveric]

^I wouldn't wager on that mate....

[Englander]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

Really???. I see the dollar going down to 25 baht , euro to 35 baht, and pound to 45 baht by June of next year.

Very possibly but its hardly the numbers a nation that relies on exports desires, though i do think things will get a lot worse in the west before they get better.

But if i predict that whats currently happening in the west will eventually bite Thailand i'll get called stooopid and get links to all sorts of wonderful charts of how the Thai economy has previously performed.

If the Tea Party starts getting a say in the coming years which is looking likely then balanced trade agreements will happen to the detriment of Thailand ... thats if there arent trade wars which is also very possible imho.

My biggest blind hope is that sterling drops V the dollar, to hover around 1.45 would be nice.

Edited October 23, 2010 by Englander

[Naam]

Are you suggesting a score draw mr Worf? You might well be right. still better of here than at home!

that's what i am preaching since years. however, rare situations might exist which force an expat to realise that he is better off in his home country, e.g. serious health problems in combination with low income, lack of health insurance and savings. amusing are reasonings such as "fish and chips with a pint of beer are cheaper at Maggie's in an eastern suburb of Liverpool!"

[Naam]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

come september 2011 it will be FIVE years that i read these encouraging currency forecasts from Brit

[el jefe]

Are you suggesting a score draw mr Worf? You might well be right. still better of here than at home!

that's what i am preaching since years. however, rare situations might exist which force an expat to realise that he is better off in his home country, e.g. serious health problems in combination with low income, lack of health insurance and savings. amusing are reasonings such as "fish and chips with a pint of beer are cheaper at Maggie's in an eastern suburb of Liverpool!"

That's exactly what I've been saying too whenever anyone says that if the baht doesn't drop against their home currency, they'll have to return home. As you said, except for poor health, the only way anyone can live cheaper in the west is to move in with their kids.

while I doubt Telldem has the timing right with his prediction of "I see the dollar going down to 25 baht , euro to 35 baht, and pound to 45 baht by June of next year" his prediction will probably be closer to what happens than BritMavrick's always rosy forecast of a bubble bursting of the baht.

[Kwasaki]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

Really???. I see the dollar going down to 25 baht , euro to 35 baht, and pound to 45 baht by June of next year.

Well it's at 46 and a bit now.

l would spend around 5000 - 7000 bht a month on myself.

l never thought l would ever have to cut down when l came to live in Thailand like use to in England.

l have cut down to 2000 - 3000 a month now until my pension comes sorry Thailand.

[britmaveric]

come september 2011 it will be FIVE years that i read these encouraging currency forecasts from Brit

Happy Anniversary Mate... sorry I missed the 4yr anniversary!

[neil324]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

come september 2011 it will be FIVE years that i read these encouraging currency forecasts from Brit

Embellishing.

The Pound didn't tank untill September 2008.

So i make that FOUR years.......

[ESB7]

A recent trip to the UK showed me that Thailand must be suffering with exports......Thai rice was the most popular/bought rice a few years ago, the shelves in Asda, Tesco etc were crammed with Vietmaneese rice and no Thai seen anywhere, proof their exports must hurting...Also a nice pint in a pub was only 2 pounds, thats just 90 Baht, the same price as a crappy small Singha in a crappy beer bar here....Tourists only have so much to spend...if they got $1,000 for a 2 week holiday thats all they got and that used to be well over 40,000 Baht, now its down to round 29,000...

[Thailaw]

I think that the Thai government may take some action to curb the rise in the Baht against the Dollar. Certainly, there is significant pressure from thai businessmen/exporters to do so. I don't expect (unfortunately) to see the Dollar at 38 Baht again (perhaps never), but north of 31 in the first quarter of 2011 is certainly possible. Anyone expecting the Baht to "tank" (especially in the midst of what the US Fed and the UK BoE are doing) is seriously confused and will be very disappointed. Right now, the pick of currencies and exchange rates is based on "the bigger fool theory", and in this environment and with the players at hand, picking the least biggest fool is a real challenge -- but the biggest fools no doubt reside in the US at the moment, with the UK a close second.

[ianguygil]

A recent trip to the UK showed me that Thailand must be suffering with exports......Thai rice was the most popular/bought rice a few years ago, the shelves in Asda, Tesco etc were crammed with Vietmaneese rice and no Thai seen anywhere, proof their exports must hurting...Also a nice pint in a pub was only 2 pounds, thats just 90 Baht, the same price as a crappy small Singha in a crappy beer bar here....Tourists only have so much to spend...if they got $1,000 for a 2 week holiday thats all they got and that used to be well over 40,000 Baht, now its down to round 29,000...

I was in London a week ago on business.

A pint of beer in a pub, and I went to about 5 pubs, is around 3.50 GBP to 4.00 GPB. That is for bitter, not for lager.

So the prices are about what they have been for about 2 years

I get the often. The hotels are horrendously expensive.

Edited October 24, 2010 by ianguygil

[Naam]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

come september 2011 it will be FIVE years that i read these encouraging currency forecasts from Brit

Embellishing.

The Pound didn't tank untill September 2008.

So i make that FOUR years.......

Brit was always referring to the US-Dollar. only recently he mentioned the Baht's demise without specifying vs. which currency.

[britmaveric]

72 bht per 1 quid coming soon.....

[Thailaw]

72 bht per 1 quid coming soon.....

why not 82 or 92 or 1002 Baht per 1 Pound? They (along with your "prediction" of 72 Bht/Pnd) are all equally probable -- "0", unless by "soon" you mean when Pattaya Bay has a foot of ice covering it!.

[darhut]

I don't see a problem. 10 years ago I was getting 22 to 25 baht to the AUD and the USD was getting around 40 baht, now both the AUD and USD are getting around 29 baht. Life is good (if your an Aussie I guess).

[alfieconn]

With inflation running at 5% in the UK, dont expect too much more printing, a few members of the board are already calling for interest rate rises.

The current inflation rate is 3.1%.

Edited October 25, 2010 by alfieconn

[thaimate]

With inflation running at 5% in the UK, dont expect too much more printing, a few members of the board are already calling for interest rate rises.

The current inflation rate is 3.1%.

They may say its 3.1% but in the real world its far higher.

[techno]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

We have all been saying that for several years now but the baht still gets stronger against the GBP. We have all been sitting around and waiting for it to happen but my guess is the Thai Government like it as the way it is and it will not change in the immediate future

[techno]

72 bht per 1 quid coming soon.....

Any guarantees. I will change my GBP with you so you can make a mint in the future

[organic]

72 bht per 1 quid coming soon.....

Any guarantees. I will change my GBP with you so you can make a mint in the future

Yep, the GBP will remain low while bank rate stays at 0.5%, and I very much doubt it'll rise any time soon, with the 'recovery' so weak. I was hoping it would rise with the announcement of the cuts, that being the sort of thing that City traders love, but it seems to be having precious little impact in this area.

[SantiSuk]

I don't see a problem. 10 years ago I was getting 22 to 25 baht to the AUD and the USD was getting around 40 baht, now both the AUD and USD are getting around 29 baht. Life is good (if your an Aussie I guess).

Australia is the new Germany which was the new Japan 20 years previously which was the new US 20 years before that. China is next. Everyone gets their 15 minutes of fame and fortune, so use it wisely.

Unfortunately for Brits it came and went sometime in the 60s or 70s (1860 or 1870). Having generated the Industrial Revolution we invented Post-Industrial Decline and everyone goes through that cycle same as night follows day.

[ozzieovaseas]

Times are about to get better for everyone - the baht bubble will soon burst - happy days once again!!

We have all been saying that for several years now but the baht still gets stronger against the GBP. We have all been sitting around and waiting for it to happen but my guess is the Thai Government like it as the way it is and it will not change in the immediate future

Yes, it seems the thai government is now taking the line that it may be bad for exports but there is nothing much more they can do about it.

US expats seem to say their country is doing all it can to claw taxes back from expats overseas and bringing in more invasive laws that make it harder to live abroad.

I feel the brits would prefer to keep their citizens at home as well, buying brit produce and paying brit taxes and keeping imports to a minimum, while forcing the workers back into the factories so as to build up the export market and get the fatcats smiling again.

Actually if the situation is as dire as they say, in BRIT and US i cant see things improoving exchange-rate wise.

In most of our countries the (already) filthy rich are crying poor over the small change they have lost recently, so one would think they might have to find some news ways to exploit the rest of us.

Edited October 25, 2010 by ozzieovaseas

[darhut]

I don't see a problem. 10 years ago I was getting 22 to 25 baht to the AUD and the USD was getting around 40 baht, now both the AUD and USD are getting around 29 baht. Life is good (if your an Aussie I guess).

Australia is the new Germany which was the new Japan 20 years previously which was the new US 20 years before that. China is next. Everyone gets their 15 minutes of fame and fortune, so use it wisely.

Unfortunately for Brits it came and went sometime in the 60s or 70s (1860 or 1870). Having generated the Industrial Revolution we invented Post-Industrial Decline and everyone goes through that cycle same as night follows day.

Australia is riding on the back of China because of Australias resources, mainly iron ore, coal etc soon it will be liquified natural gas. Of cause resources eventually run out.

Don't forget India, Brazil etc in future for their 15 minutes.