Leadership Uncertainties Threatening To Blow Pheu Thai Party Apart

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PHEU THAI PARTY

Leadership uncertainties threatening to blow party apart

By Tulsathit Taptim

Chularat Saengpassa

The Nation

"How" to fight the battle has been mapped out, more or less.

But the ultimate question is coming back to haunt the Pheu Thai Party and its de-facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra with renewed urgency: "Who" will spearhead the opposition camp's election campaign? Who will be the one who can keep increasingly restless factions together and presented to the public as "This can be your prime minister."

"If Thaksin doesn't make a decision on this soon, he may as well kiss everything else goodbye," said a high-ranking Pheu Thai source, a party veteran with a front-seat view of all the bad signs looming at the biggest political party.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source expressed worries over the ruling Democrats' continuous welfare offensives, the possibility of the electoral system reversing to the smaller constituency model, Pheu Thai's internal fighting and the unsettled party leadership issue.

"Things are not good, but the most important, most critical and most urgent of them all is the question of who will lead the party," the source said. The party has some ideas on how to turn the issue of "injustice" and "double standards" to its favour in the election campaign, and how to counter the coalition government's "hijacking" of welfare initiatives, but the question is "who" will do it.

The current leader, Yongyuth Wichaidit, is a nice guy with an all right image, but to party members he's been nothing but a seat warmer whom Thaksin put at the helm to forestall a potentially disastrous power struggle. With Pheu Thai having to go for broke in the next election, Yongyuth has taken the party as far as he can, and Thaksin can no longer buy time to avoid the consequences of installing a more charismatic leader, according to the source.

A couple of months ago, Yongyuth "resigned" from the leadership post under dubious circumstances, only to be immediately put back on the hot seat by the man from afar. Make no mistake, Yongyuth is presentable as prime minister. The only problem is if he remains party leader, Pheu Thai may not be able to put itself in the position to vie for premiership in the first place.

Yongyuth's staying on as Pheu Thai leader will very likely send a key faction led by Mingkwan Sangsuwan to break away from the party. Mingkwan's political ambition is getting stronger every day, reportedly underlined by his generous financial support for many MPs and his relentless efforts to obtain Thaksin's stamp of approval. His "envoys" who have met Thaksin do not bring back very encouraging news, but with a sizeable number of MPs under his wing, Mingkwan's bargaining power is expected to grow when a general election draws near.

"If there's anyone in Pheu Thai capable of leaving to set up a new party and taking a few dozen MPs with him, it's Mingkwan," said the source. A few dozen will be enough to ruin Pheu Thai's chances of a poll victory. The dilemma, however, is that Mingkwan's rise may open another exit, this time for his detractors.

Thaksin can at least take heart in the fact that a close rival of Mingkwan, Chalerm Yoobamrung, is more like a solo artist who does not have many MPs under his control. But again, nobody could imagine Chalerm serving a party that has Mingkwan as its leader. And losing Chalerm means losing the party's best parliamentary player and strategist.

"Chalerm is not building a faction within Pheu Thai and he's absolutely not thinking about forming a new party of his own," said the source. "But he has been a great parliamentary weapon, without whom the party can be virtually toothless."

Like Chalerm, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh does not have a faction and boasts political experience as his key asset. Unlike Chalerm, Chavalit is more dispensible, and the former general taking Pheu Thai's helm may further complicate its grass roots-oriented and politically sensitive agendas.

But in the end, image, money or experience matter less than the question of whom Thaksin can trust. The ousted leader needs someone totally at his command and who will not turn against him a la Newin Chidchob. Mingkwan could have been appointed ages ago had Thaksin totally felt he could rely on him. The "trust" issue has over the past few days spawned rumours mooting Thaksin's ex-wife Pojaman as new party leader.

Pojaman's open role in politics will only bring back all the troubles that banished Thaksin and put Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra family businesses in their current state. The same goes for another much-mentioned candidate for party leadership, Thaksin's youngest sister Yingluck Shinawatra.

All the choices look tough for Thaksin. And the political calendar makes it all the more difficult. The year after next will see many qualified pro-Thaksin veterans politically free again after a five-year ban. That means even if Thaksin makes a drastic decision on the party leadership today, another big headache will come in 2012. A "compromise" decision today, however, could be too little to enable the party to win the next general election, and victory in the next election is all Thaksin needs.

"I urge him to make a choice now, no matter how hard it is," the source said. "I know there are long-term things to worry about, but doing nothing today and there could be nothing left to worry about."

-- The Nation 2010-12-27

[brahmburgers]

Daddy daddy, please come back to lead us. We have no platforms and no positions on anything, except we all want a lot of money and to take multiple vacations to Europe paid for by Thai tax money - including first class on Thai Airways.

We've been yelling democracy all over the place, like you told us to. We turned down two early election offers from Abhisit as you told us to. We commandeered central Bangkok like you wanted us to. Daddy Thaksin, please come back and tell us how to be, how to act, how to think. We miss you soooooooo much.

[jonclark]

Seems to me the time is right for an election, I'd be surprised if we didn't see an election in the next month or so. It's an ideal time, if only cause PTP is in utter chaos.

[rubl]

Seems to me the time is right for an election, I'd be surprised if we didn't see an election in the next month or so. It's an ideal time, if only cause PTP is in utter chaos.

For by-elections it's within 45 days after the MP seat became vacant (for whatever reason). For general elections it might be 45 days after the house has been dissolved. Just after Songkhran might be a good time. That way we may have a peaceful Songkhran in Bangkok in 2011.

Edited December 27, 2010 by rubl

[OzMick]

The problem with Mingkwan is that he might not jump when Thaksin pulls his strings. Maybe thailand is starting to see an opposition with a political agenda other than bring back the thief.

Why call an early election when your welfare initiatives are starting to reach the people. Running the mandate out will give them time to realise that they are receiving benefits rather than empty promises, and PTP might just collapse from the leadership problems.

[slapout]

Time appears to favor the present government. PTP alias Thaksin would seem to be on a downhill slide with nothing concrete to contribute to Thailand's recovery.

Even with the coalition partners who are contributing very little toward a showing of a real interest for the general public welfare, the present government seems to be slowly but surely making progress toward real governance. Guess we will have to wait until the next election to see how the voters feel about how they want the country run.

[otherstuff1957]

Thaksin's dilemma is the same now as in 2007. If he puts a strong leader into the PM's seat he is at risk of becoming irrelevant, if he puts a weak leader in his party will have a weak leader! He's tried both already - Samak and Somchai. I don't think Minkwan will be his next choice, he's too popular and could be seen as real party leader. Chavalit is too unpredictable. My money is either on Chalerm or on a total unknown.

BTW, when is the 5-year ban over? If it's over soon, over 100 experienced politicians will be back on the scene. One of them might very well be the next PT leader!

Edited December 27, 2010 by otherstuff1957

[brahmburgers]

BTW, when is the 5-year ban over? If it's over soon, over 100 experienced politicians will be back on the scene. One of them might very well be the next PT leader!

'experienced' means they're just better connected to big business, and more adept at raking in money behind closed doors.

Why is it so difficult for PT to field a candidate with an smidgen of decency? ....or one with any agenda, other than getting richer. Is there one PT politician who has voiced an opinion on improving environment, on enabling hill tribers to get ID cards, on any tangible legislation that would lessen the gap between haves and have nots? Are there any PT candidates who advocate tangible investigation and penalties for all found guilty of corruption?

[fnprop]

More wishful thinking on the part of The Nation. There's an election this year, one way or another. And it will probably end the same way as the last 3 general elections: with the previous prime minister's party on top.

Only question now is of timing. Can the Suthep/Prayuch/Newin junta hang on until the end of the term, or least until the budget and reshuffles are completed? Or will Mingkwan and the newly-muzzled Jatuporn score enough points in either the run-up to or actual censure debate to force an early dissolution?

Abhisit's pre-conditions of "political stability" and "agreement to respect the outcomes?" Sheer fantasy. Hasn't happened in the last eighty years, so I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it now.

There was a reason the guns came out in May. And it wasn't because Bangkok was inconvenienced. The UDD rally was presenting a credible threat to topple the government. And neither side of the political spectrum had enough control to predict the outcome.

In the meantime, same old same old. The army and their political playthings trying to set the preconditions "in law" to guarantee a victory (that worked real well the last time, huh?). An inordinate amount of questioning regarding "loyalty" (or is that fealty?) to play upon the the electorate's heartstrings. Plenty of baht being passed around, with MP's switching sides in the blink of an eye and lao khao sales through the roof.

Should be an interesting year. But it certainly won't be peaceful or politically stable.

[Ricardo]

The problem with Mingkwan is that he might not jump when Thaksin pulls his strings. Maybe thailand is starting to see an opposition with a political agenda other than bring back the thief.

Why call an early election when your welfare initiatives are starting to reach the people. Running the mandate out will give them time to realise that they are receiving benefits rather than empty promises, and PTP might just collapse from the leadership problems.

Your first sentence ... one can only hope so, but DL will be very wary, after his experience with former-PM Samak.

Regarding an early-2011 or a late-2011 election, the recent populist measures were announced to be for 3 months, and Democrat-party strategists might therefore equally prefer to go now, while the PTP are still in disarray ? They have to balance the benefits of another 4 years in-power, against the chance of missing-out on the 2011-Budget, pros & cons both ways ! Whoever comes to power will probably still need to form a coalition, there are unlikely to be any outright winners, so compromises on sharing the pork-barrel will still be necessary.

As a farang observer one can only hope, that things stay relatively-peaceful for the electioneering, that the military stay in the background whoever forms the next government, and that properly-funded policies to assist the poor continue or expand regardless of the outcome. Too much to ask ? Perhaps, but the alternatives are all worse, so one must try to remain optimistic.

It will be an interesting year.