Predictions For Gbp Vs. Thb?

[ChiangMaiFun]

I think it may well rise to 52/53 then fall back by June? any views?

[thaimate]

Why do you think this?

[Pib]

My wild-eyed guess from listening to so called experts on CNBC, Bloomberg, BBC, etc., is the pound will slowly depreciate further in 2011 by about 5% due to a slowing economy driven by the aggressive deficit reduction measures the UK is implementing. In closing, I consider my guess about as accurate as a drunken dart throw taken from across the bar...that's why I don't trade currencies.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Why do you think this?

only that UK's austerity measures may 'perk up' the GBP as the dollar falls - but I have no idea really just wondering if anyone else has!

[chiang mai]

All the private banking reports that I read have GBP going the opposite way to your estimate CMF, probably around end 3Q11, who knows.

[ChiangMaiFun]

All the private banking reports that I read have GBP going the opposite way to your estimate CMF, probably around end 3Q11, who knows.

oh right... I guess it was more 'hope' than factual - I need to bring over a 'wad' and wanted to catch a short 'wave' above 50 - but maybe I should consider bringing over at 46/47 - it's just so depressing I can hardly consider it

I remember the 70s and wonder if we'll ever see 60 again in our lifetimes!

[nong38]

According to a bunch of pundits raked in by thisismoney.co.uk the gbp is expected to be a bit down for the begining of the year and will then start to rise slowly. I would be happy if we can get back to around 50 so that is my hope for the end of the year. I think the measures being taken in the UK along with no more money pumping and rates must start to rise soon in the UK all look toward a more stable environment and better sentiments in the financial world. The Euro and the dollar are in a different position so should not be tied to the gbp whether that is what acually happens is another matter altogether, its a funny old world,so, lets hope for 50 soon.

[chiang mai]

I was chastised some months ago for advocating buying SGD instead of THB but I have to say that play held up very well indeed, thus far I'm ahead in GBP terms by around 8% in just under four months, maybe something to consider instead of THB in the short/medium term.

[Steely Dan]

The UK government like the U.S one is pursuing a neo-keynesian policy of defaulting on it's debts by stealth. In practical terms this means printing money (not the quantitative easing they refer to which is Orwellian doublespeak). Aside from printing money they will understate inflation figures to try and disguise their strategy, but currency exchange rates give the game away. This all said I do see some positives for the pound, not through the so called austerity measures, which are just window dressing, but through undeveloped oil and gas reserves near both Rockall and the Falkland Islands.

I would agree 55 would be a high watermark unless the UK government truly ditched Keynesian economic policies. Thailand has a lot of geographical factors and resources which should be very positive in the long run, providing political instability does not sink the Baht, which it hasn't done yet.

[MJP]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

[ChiangMaiFun]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

and any bounce back in 2012?

[slim]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

I don't think the 40 level will offer any support.

After 7 years I'm returning to the UK. At the current exchange rate (say 47THB/GBP) a retirement visa at 800,000 baht works out at £17,000. This time next year I believe the exchange rate will be a lot nearer 30 than 50. I have a friend back in the UK who lived in Thailand when the exchange rate was 35 baht to the pound so we're nowhere near historical levels. I doubt if we'll see 60 again in the next 10 years.

Mervyn King at the BOE has repeatedly gone on record as saying he prefers a weak pound to a strong one so we know the BOE will let the pound go where it wants to. The BOT are trying to hold back the baht's rise but inflation will force them to raise rates and this will strengthen the baht further over the next 12 months.

I can see the dollar advancing against the baht over the next 12 months but the GBP and the EURO (in particular) look doomed.

On the bright side the land I bought over here for £12,000 3 years ago is now worth £32,000 so we're selling it and returning to the cold and snow of the UK. Thailand is still cheap enough if you only have yourself and a wife who understands the value of money to consider but with a 3 year old daughter its a different issue. Free schools, free hospitals, family allowance make the UK a better proposition than Thailand so our flights are booked for 31st January.

I wont be too sorry to say goodbye.

Edited January 8, 2011 by slim

[ChiangMaiFun]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

I don't think the 40 level will offer any support.

After 7 years I'm returning to the UK. At the current exchange rate (say 47THB/GBP) a retirement visa at 800,000 baht works out at £17,000. This time next year I believe the exchange rate will be a lot nearer 30 than 50. I have a friend back in the UK who lived in Thailand when the exchange rate was 35 baht to the pound so we're nowhere near historical levels. I doubt if we'll see 60 again in the next 10 years.

Mervyn King at the BOE has repeatedly gone on record as saying he prefers a weak pound to a strong one so we know the BOE will let the pound go where it wants to. The BOT are trying to hold back the baht's rise but inflation will force them to raise rates and this will strengthen the baht further over the next 12 months.

I can see the dollar advancing against the baht over the next 12 months but the GBP and the EURO (in particular) look doomed.

On the bright side the land I bought over here for £12,000 3 years ago is now worth £32,000 so we're selling it and returning to the cold and snow of the UK. Thailand is still cheap enough if you only have yourself and a wife who understands the value of money to consider but with a 3 year old daughter its a different issue. Free schools, free hospitals, family allowance make the UK a better proposition than Thailand so our flights are booked for 31st January.

I wont be too sorry to say goodbye.

sorry you are going and best wishes! I think I'll take the plunge and transfer this money over here at 46/47 although it pains me to do so! if it drops to 40 i may transfer some back to UK

[thaimate]

Doubt very much it will go to 40 and all the economists say the same , should stay about where it is now ,maybe rise a little if interest rates rise in the U.K Mervyn King is a fool and even the papers are saying it ,i believe his days are numbered ,the man couldnt organise a piss up in a brewery ,and his track record shows this.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Doubt very much it will go to 40 and all the economists say the same , should stay about where it is now ,maybe rise a little if interest rates rise in the U.K Mervyn King is a fool and even the papers are saying it ,i believe his days are numbered ,the man couldnt organise a piss up in a brewery ,and his track record shows this.

yes problem - is I'm buying a condo and have GBP and I have to bite the bullet and transfer and doing so at 46/47 breaks my heart

[MJP]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

and any bounce back in 2012?

Not until the bubble being created here in Asia has burst, which it will, which it always does. It's no normal recession for the West, it's structural problems of utterly imbalanced economies.

GBP will bump along the bottom for five years or so. Lot of debt to purge and no sign right now that government borrowing is reducing.

[chiang mai]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

and any bounce back in 2012?

Not until the bubble being created here in Asia has burst, which it will, which it always does. It's no normal recession for the West, it's structural problems of utterly imbalanced economies.

GBP will bump along the bottom for five years or so. Lot of debt to purge and no sign right now that government borrowing is reducing.

I disagree, respectfully:

"'The Bank of England will probably increase interest rates this year by the most since it gained independence in 1997 or face losing its credibility, Societe Generale SA Chief U.K. Economist Brian Hilliard said".

On balance I'm inclined to agree with Wordchild (different thread) where he said that he was starting, for the first time in quite a while, to get slightly bullish on GBP. Trouble is though that doesn't address the GBP/THB issue.

[MJP]

Trending down. By Q4 2011, trading range will be testing 40. Unlikely to go much lower unless the UK defaults outright, which is still a possibility since government borrowing is still surging, negative real interest rates remain.

Bubble forming in SE Asia, fueled by Western QE.

And so the cycle continues . . .

and any bounce back in 2012?

Not until the bubble being created here in Asia has burst, which it will, which it always does. It's no normal recession for the West, it's structural problems of utterly imbalanced economies.

GBP will bump along the bottom for five years or so. Lot of debt to purge and no sign right now that government borrowing is reducing.

I disagree, respectfully:

"'The Bank of England will probably increase interest rates this year by the most since it gained independence in 1997 or face losing its credibility, Societe Generale SA Chief U.K. Economist Brian Hilliard said".

On balance I'm inclined to agree with Wordchild (different thread) where he said that he was starting, for the first time in quite a while, to get slightly bullish on GBP. Trouble is though that doesn't address the GBP/THB issue.

BoE will likely raise rates, start a bonfire as households fold (capital debt being barely serviceable now at current rates) then back off again, reducing them. See the banks can't foreclose as once they do they will have to mark to market thus requiring yet more QE. The only thing left in Blighter's is HPI and unaffordable housing. Without these historically low rates the housing market would have collapsed last year, it's the only thing holding the whole edifice together.

Once, well if, the UK is deleveraged and the bubble in Asia pops, then you will likely see appreciation of the Pound. But let's remember 60 was good. 65 was an imbalance. 75 was a free lunch. (I did 90% of my disaster here at 75.75, it still hurts though).

Here's a question. If you were the Chancellor in the current situation, would you like to see the Pound weaker or stronger (or stay the same)?

I'd say weaker as they try and rebalance their economy with cheaper exports (creates jobs lost from the public sector bloated Labour years), acts as protectionism against imports (which is critical to be honest, Asia has taken the piss for far too long) and at the same time reduces the value of the debt.

There again I'm probably way out as the whole currency game seems to be rigged anyway and has little to do with either the obvious or mathematics.

[chiang mai]

Chancellors and PM's will be ecstatic with a weak(er) Pound whilst BOE/MPC cannot tolerate it at the expense of prolonged higher inflation. (Yes I know, but there comes a tipping point somewhere along the line). Manufacturing vs Services, that's next for discussion I presume!

[MJP]

Chancellors and PM's will be ecstatic with a weak(er) Pound whilst BOE/MPC cannot tolerate it at the expense of prolonged higher inflation. (Yes I know, but there comes a tipping point somewhere along the line). Manufacturing vs Services, that's next for discussion I presume!

Manufacturing. They know they have to add value now, this is the end of a long game. Lord Weinstock said it first back in the 80's with 'What will they [the service industries] service?'

They want inflation. Desperately to erode this debt, to wash it away. Thing is for wages to rise (and don't think for a minute they could care less for Joe Bloggs) they now need to create/add real value, put it on a boat and sail it somewhere to market. The banking con game is up.

I reckon they would love to trash the Pound. Just like the US is embarking on more QE, as will the UK.

[Pib]

On the bright side the land I bought over here for £12,000 3 years ago is now worth £32,000 so we're selling it and returning to the cold and snow of the UK. Thailand is still cheap enough if you only have yourself and a wife who understands the value of money to consider but with a 3 year old daughter its a different issue. Free schools, free hospitals, family allowance make the UK a better proposition than Thailand so our flights are booked for 31st January.

I wont be too sorry to say goodbye.

The home country benefits you mention are the same as extra money in the pocket...and it can be the equivalent to BIG money in the pocket....it can definitely make a big difference in the family quality of life. Have a safe and successful trip back.

[MJP]

On the bright side the land I bought over here for £12,000 3 years ago is now worth £32,000 so we're selling it and returning to the cold and snow of the UK. Thailand is still cheap enough if you only have yourself and a wife who understands the value of money to consider but with a 3 year old daughter its a different issue. Free schools, free hospitals, family allowance make the UK a better proposition than Thailand so our flights are booked for 31st January.

I wont be too sorry to say goodbye.

The home country benefits you mention are the same as extra money in the pocket...and it can be the equivalent to BIG money in the pocket....it can definitely make a big difference in the family quality of life. Have a safe and successful trip back.

Yup, good luck to Slim.

On that note. What is the repatriation process? I believe that if you've been out of the UK for more than 2 years you (as a British national ) are struck off the NHS.

[chiang mai]

On the bright side the land I bought over here for £12,000 3 years ago is now worth £32,000 so we're selling it and returning to the cold and snow of the UK. Thailand is still cheap enough if you only have yourself and a wife who understands the value of money to consider but with a 3 year old daughter its a different issue. Free schools, free hospitals, family allowance make the UK a better proposition than Thailand so our flights are booked for 31st January.

I wont be too sorry to say goodbye.

The home country benefits you mention are the same as extra money in the pocket...and it can be the equivalent to BIG money in the pocket....it can definitely make a big difference in the family quality of life. Have a safe and successful trip back.

Yup, good luck to Slim.

On that note. What is the repatriation process? I believe that if you've been out of the UK for more than 2 years you (as a British national ) are struck off the NHS.

Just go and register with a doctor when you return and all should be well again.

[neil324]

Chancellors and PM's will be ecstatic with a weak(er) Pound whilst BOE/MPC cannot tolerate it at the expense of prolonged higher inflation. (Yes I know, but there comes a tipping point somewhere along the line). Manufacturing vs Services, that's next for discussion I presume!

That tipping point is fast approaching. All things said and done inflation should be falling now the 2 driving forces of previous inflation devaluation and the first VAT increase are now out of the YOY figures instead there is talk of it rising with the new VAT increase. It's starting to snowball.

[chiang mai]

Chancellors and PM's will be ecstatic with a weak(er) Pound whilst BOE/MPC cannot tolerate it at the expense of prolonged higher inflation. (Yes I know, but there comes a tipping point somewhere along the line). Manufacturing vs Services, that's next for discussion I presume!

Manufacturing. They know they have to add value now, this is the end of a long game. Lord Weinstock said it first back in the 80's with 'What will they [the service industries] service?'

They want inflation. Desperately to erode this debt, to wash it away. Thing is for wages to rise (and don't think for a minute they could care less for Joe Bloggs) they now need to create/add real value, put it on a boat and sail it somewhere to market. The banking con game is up.

I reckon they would love to trash the Pound. Just like the US is embarking on more QE, as will the UK.

Sad but true, that much needed rate increase would only help destroy manufacturings efforts by causing the Pound to strengthen so it's hard to see that coming about, it's damned if you do and damned if you don't time folks.

[fletchsmile]

GBP/THB?

Below 50 for most of the year. If you're trying to get above 50, then possible timing is April - June.

USD/THB?

Early 30's now, perhaps pushing to 31-ish and then fading to sub 30's as the year goes on. Would be surprised to see it much above 30 come the end of the year, and more likely sub-30

USD/GBP

USD generally weakening to 1.60 - 1.70 for most of the year. Even the most optmistic people I've seen don't see more than 1.80. So 1.80 x 30 implies very lucky to get near 55 for GBP/THB!

My own opinion, all things I'm aware of considered! No inclination to expand further, given the wide range of factors that drive it