Unrest may threaten Thai oil supplies if it spreads in Mideast

By Petchanet Pratruangkrai,

Sucheera Pinijparakarn,

Watcharopong Thongrung

Thailand's energy security will be at risk if political unrest in Egypt turns for the worse and spreads further into the Middle East, where three-quarters of the country's oil imports come from, a senior energy official says.

Metta Banterngsuk, the deputy permanent secretary for energy, said the country's crude-oil supplies remained safe at this stage.

"In the event that the situation in Egypt worsens, it would mostly affect oil transport via the Suez Canal. However, oil supplies to Asia, including Thailand, are shipped via the Persian Gulf, not the Suez Canal," he said.

"The latter is mainly used for transporting oil to Europe and the US. So there could be more pipeline transport in such a scenario."

Meanwhile, Thai exports to Egypt are expected to drop by 5-10 per cent this year because of the political violence, though more food shipments to neighbouring countries are expected.

Deputy Commerce Minister Alongkorn Ponlaboot said Thai exports to Egypt accounted for US$767.7 million (Bt23.7 billion) last year, just 0.4 per cent of total export value.

Paiboon Ponsuwanna, chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Association, said the impact on goods shipments remained small, as there had been no problems with shipping via the Suez Canal yet.

Exporters are hoping the situation remains under control and does not spread to other countries in the Middle East.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said exporters were monitoring developments closely.

Egypt is a rice-exporting country. If it faces shipping problems, its customers, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, may order rice from Thailand, he said.

Major Thai exports to Egypt include preserved fish, cars and parts, refrigerators, ethylene polymers, radios, televisions, rubber, machinery and copper.

Last year, exports to Egypt surged 30.75 per cent to $767.7 million.

Pornthep Jubandhu, vice president for macroeconomic analysis at SCB Economic Intelligence Centre, said oil prices were being closely monitored.

Experts on Middle Eastern affairs are concerned that the violence in Egypt is just the tip of the iceberg and could lead to a restructuring of geopolitics in the region.

Pornthep said that if there were a war in the region, the impact on the global economy would be serious. The likelihood would be that more funds would flow back to developed countries, especially in North America and the European Union.

Over recent years, some foreign funds have already left the Thai market, he said.

-- The Nation 2011-02-04

still, nobody likes to live on an authoritarian country.

shortage and high price of energy and petrol might trigger protests in thailand

This article is very misleading. In baht terms, Thailand's oil comes from very stable places. Here are the top 5 sources for 2010

1) UAE - 33%

2) Saudi Arabia - 18%

3) Oman - 9%

4) Australia - 8%

5) Russia - 7%

So 75% of Thai crude oil imports (in baht terms) come from these five countries. Seems OK to me. Have a look for yourself - http://www2.ops3.moc.go.th/menucomen/

May and if: both in the one sentence.

Something 'may' happen 'if' a set of circumstances arise.

Same as 'won't' happen 'because' of circumstances. But then that approach wouldn't fill newsprint.

So, there 'may' be aliens landing in Lumpini Park 'if' a space ship were sighted above Bangkok.

Possible or probable?

Like another? We 'may' get the truth in The Nation 'if' hell freezes over in time for tea.

And it took three Thais to write that rubbish. Three of them and not one with any integrity.

This article is very misleading. In baht terms, Thailand's oil comes from very stable places. Here are the top 5 sources for 2010

1) UAE - 33%

2) Saudi Arabia - 18%

3) Oman - 9%

4) Australia - 8%

5) Russia - 7%

So 75% of Thai crude oil imports (in baht terms) come from these five countries. Seems OK to me. Have a look for yourself - http://www2.ops3.moc.go.th/menucomen/

That's fine but the oil prices are set by OPEC and not individual countries. If one oil producing nation sneezes it effects the global market and not just that country.