Is Bhum Jai Thai's Election Target Realistic?

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BURNING ISSUE

Is Bhum Jai Thai's election target realistic?

By PIYANART SRIVALO

THE NATION

The Bhum Jai Thai Party might say it is ready for the upcoming elections, but it might be setting its target too high. The party currently has 33 MPs under its banner and about 20 MPs from other parties are expected to join it before the polls.

The party, led by its de-facto leader Newin Chidchob, has set its target at 60 to 70 MPs. This is because more MPs would give it greater bargaining power to become part of the government, especially if Newin doesn't want Bhum Jai Thai to be in the opposition camp.

However, Bhum Jai Thai is being blocked from reaching its target because some groups seem to be changing their mind.

For instance, Pradit Pattaraprasit's faction of four MPs has chosen to |join Chart Thai Pattana instead of Bhum Jai Thai. Last week, Pradit quit the Ruam Chart Pattana Party, where he held the secretary-general's post. The faction's move to Chart Thai Pattana will be formally announced today.

Similarly, Sonthaya Khunpluem's group has decided to form a new party - the Palang Chon - instead of joining up with Newin. Sonthaya said his mother had registered the new party and they were hoping to get at least 10 MPs from provinces in the East, such as Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat.

However, the faction leader was quick to add that he did not have any problems with Newin and that his party would be an ally of Bhum Jai Thai. Recently, there have been rumours that local supporters, mainly the red shirts, are pressuring Sonthaya's group to not become part of Newin's Bhum Jai Thai.

Besides these two factions, there are two other groups that might leave the party. The first group comprises three MPs, including Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai, who are followers of Somsak Thepsuthin. The second group is made up of five MPs, including Deputy Education Minister Narisara Chawaltanpipat, led by Suchart Tancharoen.

Apparently these groups are unhappy that Newin chose not to help the two ministers every time they were attacked over hot issues.

Bhum Jai Thai chairman Prajak Klaewklaharn, meanwhile, said his party would have at least 40 MPs, mostly from the Northeast. He was referring to Newin's faction, and did not mention Somsak or Suchart's groups.

The 40 expected to join include three MPs from Khon Kaen, two from Sakon Nakhon, two from Maha Sarakham, 10 from Buri Ram, one from Udon Thani, four from Nakhon Phanom, four from Nakhon Ratchasima, two from Kalasin, one from Chaiyaphum, one from Loei, two from Nongkhai and one from Ubon Ratchathani.

Last month, Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana announced that they would be allies after the upcoming election "regardless of the |result", which could mean that they will either join the Democrats or the Pheu Thai Party to form the next coalition.

If Bhum Jai Thai was left on its own, it would have to join the opposition camp if Pheu Thai wins the elections. However, if it joins up with Chart Thai Pattana - which should be snapped up by a coalition government be it Democrat or Pheu Thai - then it will have more of a chance to join the government.

Yet, a political observer said the announcement of the two parties being "best friends forever" should not be believed because, "there are no real friends or permanent enemies in Thai politics - alliances can change at any time depending on benefits."

-- The Nation 2011-04-21

[virtualtraveller]

The move by Newin to join an 'alliance' with Chart Thai was a shrewd move that could not have been good news for Thaksin. Barnharn will always go where the money is, whereas Newin would need to kiss and make up with Thaksin to avoid being in the opposition. With Barnharn on his side the two can avoid being played off against one another. Now Thaksin almost certainly will have to do deals with 23Newin which is going to be a tougher job than Abhisit/Suthep doing a do with him.