Small Thai Parties Vie For Power

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ANALYSIS

Small parties vie for power

By Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation

With neither Democrats nor Pheu Thai likely to win majority, they would need small parties' support to form govt

While the two major parties - Democrat and Pheu Thai - are fighting fiercely against each other to win the upcoming election and get a chance to become the coalition leader, medium-sized and small parties are also manoeuvring intensely to win a chance to become coalition partners.

The party seen with the best chance of becoming a partner of the next coalition government is the Chart Thai Pattana. It is expected to be brought in as a partner no matter which party wins the election.

The Chart Thai Pattana will be left out only if a major party scores a landslide victory, sweeping more than half the House seats. In that scenario, the coalition leader may need only a small party, not the Chart Thai Pattana, to boost its strength.

The Chart Thai Pattana's clear stand was announced by party chief adviser Sanan Kachornprasart when the party welcomed a group of politicians led by Pradit Phattaraprasit last week.

Sanan announced that the Chart Thai Pattana would definitely become a coalition partner because he expected that neither the Democrats nor Pheu Thai would sweep more than half the House seats. The Chart Thai Pattana has made it clear it is ready to join a coalition of either party.

But if the election's result does not come out as Sanan expected - if a major party scores a landslide victory, the Chart Pattana Pua Pandin will become the party with the biggest chance of being chosen as a partner.

The Chart Pattana Pua Pandin has just resulted from a merger between the Ruam Chart Pattana and Pua Pandin's faction of the so-called 3Ps politicians - Phairoj Suwanchawee, Pinij Charusombat and Preecha Laohapongchana. The Chart Pattana Pua Pandin Party should win no more than 20 House seats.

The Chart Pattana Pua Pandin is expected to win a sizeable number of MPs in Nakhon Ratchasima because of cooperation between Suwaj Liptapanlop and Phairoj, who enjoy high popularity there.

The Chart Pattana Pua Pandin has made it clear it will make no enemies. It has a policy of gradually building up itself. The party has recently announced that former tennis player Paradorn Srichaphan and Yaowapha Burapolchai, a champion taekwondo player, have joined the party. So far, it is not clear whether the two will contest the election or whether they will only act as PR persons for the party.

Among the small and medium-sized parties, the Bhum Jai Thai Party has the biggest risk of being left out as an opposition party, especially if Pheu Thai wins the election.

Bhum Jai Thai de facto leader Newin Chidchob is regarded as the archenemy of the Pheu Thai 'real' leader, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. For Thaksin, Newin cannot be forgiven.

However, Newin has manoeuvred to join a Pheu Thai-led coalition by announcing an alliance with the Chart Thai Pattana of Banharn Silapa-archa.

At first glance, the alliance between the Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana is seen as an effort by the two parties to contest for the leadership of the next coalition. But with more subtle examination, the alliance also appears a means to increase the chances of the Bhum Jai Thai to be included in the next coalition.

"Without our partnership, the Bhum Jai Thai will have to become an opposition party if the Pheu Thai wins the election. But staying with us, it will have a chance to become a coalition partner," a core member of the Chart Thai Pattana analysed.

In the latest assessment, the Bhum Jai Thai is expected to emerge as the third largest party in terms of MPs in the next election. It may win less than 60 or 70 House seats as earlier aimed at by the party because at least two groups of current MPs have changed their minds and will not join the Bhum Jai Thai.

The first group of MPs is headed by Sonthaya Khunplume. This group has decided to form its own party called the Palang Chon Party. The second group of MPs is headed by Pradit, who has led his group to resign from the Ruam Chart Pattana to join the Chart Thai Pattana. Pradit used to be the secretary-general of Ruam Chart Pattana.

Anyway, some analysts see the Palang Chon as only an interim party for the Khunpluem politicians to temporarily separate from Newin. The family has been under tremendous pressure from canvassers, who are mostly red-shirt supporters, to separate from Newin or else its candidates may fail to win the election in eastern provinces. The Palang Chon may join hands with Newin after the election.

There are no permanent friends or foes in politics and everything depends on mutual interests. The cooperation between the Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana and between Newin and his close friend, Sonthaya Khunpluem, may depend on their mutual interests as well.

The future of a new party, Rak Santi, of former interior minister Purachai Piumsombun, is still uncertain. Purachai himself appeared reluctant to decide whether to contest the election as a party-list candidate or constituency candidate. He even refused to lead the party.

Purachai's uncertainties led the Rak Santi to lose its momentum although its establishment was announced with a big fanfare.

It was reported earlier that Purachai would contest the next election as a party-list candidate. In that case, Purachai, who is described as being straightforward as a ruler, will definitely fail to win a seat although he announced the social order as a selling point of his party.

A political party must earn at least 250,000 votes to get a party-list MP - and it will be hard for a new party without a strong base in Bangkok to earn so many votes.

But if Purachai contests a Bangkok constituency, he will still have a chance to become an MP.

But since the Rak Santi has former police chief Pol General Phatcharawat Wongsuwan, a brother of Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan, as a founding member, the Rak Santi is seen as a branch of the Bhum Jai Thai.

All in all, not only the two major parties should be watched during the run-up to the election, other small and medium-sized parties should be monitored closely as well.

-- The Nation 2011-04-25