Expect A Change For The Better: Thai Opinion

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Expect a change for the better

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Thailand might have a fairly good chance of overcoming, or at least lessening, its political polarisation after the July 3 election.

Almost 2.8 million absentee voters, an unprecedented 5.8 per cent of the 48 million people eligible to cast ballots, have registered for the June 26 advance vote.

The enthusiasm of absentee voters is an indication that election day will see a high number of votes cast by people seeking to break down the polarisation. The voice of the people will prevail over agitation instigated by rival camps.

Even in the scenario of a narrow victory, the voting outcome will demonstrate which of the two main rivals, the Democrats or Pheu Thai, will win the people's mandate to steer the country. The winning party is expected to muster sufficient support to resolve the divisive issues that have plagued the country since 2005.

Contrary to various doom scenarios, the general election will likely bring about change for the better, regardless of which party wins. Based on opinion polls, either the Democrats or Pheu Thai will have a realistic chance of leading the next government. Speculation about a compromise candidate for the prime ministership appears far-fetched.

Should the Democrats claim victory, Abhisit Vejjajiva will certainly lead the coalition government for a second term. As Pheu Thai leader, Yongyuth Wichaidit would then be destined to become the opposition leader. Pheu Thai candidate Yingluck Shinawatra would take her seat as a first-time MP on the opposition bench.

If Pheu Thai wins, Yingluck will become Thailand's first female prime minister and Abhisit will lead the opposition for a second time. Yongyuth would likely enjoy concurrent appointments as a first-time coalition lawmaker and a new Cabinet member with the interior portfolio.

Because of the tight nature of the contest, it is a futile exercise to try to predict scenarios of how the small parties will pan out. The next government could emerge in myriad ways.

Serious negotiations for power sharing are expected to begin after the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties get a picture of the mood of voters based on exit polls of the advance vote.

In the 2007 general election, the gist of what the electorate said was defiance of the 2006 coup by installing the People Power Party in power. The polarisation intensified because supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra were preoccupied with Thaksin's legal wrangling instead of moving on.

As the pro-Thaksin camp secured victory by fewer than 100,000 popular votes, the People's Alliance for Democracy led the yellow shirts into the streets, triggering the collapse of two successive governments under Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat.

After the Democrats grabbed power in 2008 by engineering a switch of the coalition alliance, the red shirts organised street protests by riding on the amnesty sentiment before morphing into an opposition movement that questioned the legitimacy of the Democrat-led government.

In the upcoming election, the winning party will likely gain a larger margin of victory than that in the last general election. A clear win by the Democrats would invalidate the red shirts' voice on the legitimacy issue. A decisive Pheu Thai victory would likewise be tantamount to a mandate to silence the anti-Thaksin camp and rescue Thaksin - as deemed necessary.

With a clear mandate given to either the Democrats or Pheu Thai, the polarisation will dissipate. Although the two rival parties will still have irreconcilable differences, the outcome of the ballot will validate the winning party's way.

-- The Nation 2011-06-07

[whybother]

Should the Democrats claim victory, ... As Pheu Thai leader, Yongyuth Wichaidit would then be destined to become the opposition leader. Pheu Thai candidate Yingluck Shinawatra would take her seat as a first-time MP on the opposition bench.

If Pheu Thai wins, Yingluck will become Thailand's first female prime minister ... . Yongyuth would likely enjoy concurrent appointments as a first-time coalition lawmaker and a new Cabinet member with the interior portfolio.

So if PTP wins, Yingluck is PM. If they lose, she's doesn't become the opposition leader??

In other words, she's just a figure head. She can't do the job.

[gymboy33]

As the pro-Thaksin camp secured victory by fewer than 100,000 popular votes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2007

according to wikepedia the saMAK HEADED party won by about 5 mil popular votes!

[Crushdepth]

The winning party is expected to muster sufficient support to resolve the divisive issues that have plagued the country since 2005.

Unfortunately, some parties *don't want* to resolve the division, because they rely on it to get elected. They created it.

[OzMick]

"Should the Democrats claim victory,.....................Yingluck Shinawatra would take her seat as a first-time MP on the opposition bench."

"If Pheu Thai wins, Yingluck will become Thailand's first female prime minister .............."

Neither statement is necessarily true. If she loses, why would a multi-millionaire bother. If she wins, political manouvering may well see her replaced. And in either case, legal proceedings may see her and/or PTP being barred.

[moobaan]

let us hope either way is decisive - avoiding ongoing conflict

[whybother]

As the pro-Thaksin camp secured victory by fewer than 100,000 popular votes

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2007

according to wikepedia the saMAK HEADED party won by about 5 mil popular votes!

The PTP won the Constituency vote by 5 million votes. In the Constituency vote, people make more than one vote. The vote also refers to local constituencies, so in some areas a party gets a very high proportion of the vote, but they still only get one MP.

The Democrats won the Proportional (party list) vote. In the proportional vote, every votes just once.

[whybother]

let us hope either way is decisive - avoiding ongoing conflict

It is unlikely that there will be a decisive vote and even if there was, it probably wouldn't avoid ongoing conflict.

While Thaksin is involved, there will be people fighting for him and people fighting against him.

[barrybankruad]

let us hope either way is decisive - avoiding ongoing conflict

It is unlikely that there will be a decisive vote and even if there was, it probably wouldn't avoid ongoing conflict.

While Thaksin is involved, there will be people fighting for him and people fighting against him.

Interesting thread, but I notice not mention so far of the all pervading menace in the background i.e the Army.

[whybother]

let us hope either way is decisive - avoiding ongoing conflict

It is unlikely that there will be a decisive vote and even if there was, it probably wouldn't avoid ongoing conflict.

While Thaksin is involved, there will be people fighting for him and people fighting against him.

Interesting thread, but I notice not mention so far of the all pervading menace in the background i.e the Army.

Only a menace for some.

But there is a whole thread relating to the army

And another one for all the pro-reds conspiracy theorists

[Ricardo]

As the pro-Thaksin camp secured victory by fewer than 100,000 popular votes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_general_election,_2007

according to wikepedia the saMAK HEADED party won by about 5 mil popular votes!

You, or rather Wikepedia, may well be confusing the constituency-vote, where voters can get more-than one vote, with the proportional-vote, which is 'one-man one-vote', and is therefore often taken as giving a more-accurate 'take' on a party's popularity.

[Emptyset]

As the pro-Thaksin camp secured victory by fewer than 100,000 popular votes

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2007

according to wikepedia the saMAK HEADED party won by about 5 mil popular votes!

The PTP won the Constituency vote by 5 million votes. In the Constituency vote, people make more than one vote. The vote also refers to local constituencies, so in some areas a party gets a very high proportion of the vote, but they still only get one MP.

The Democrats won the Proportional (party list) vote. In the proportional vote, every votes just once.

The Democrats didn't win the Proportional vote, PPP won that by just 200,000 votes. The figures are here: http://asiancorrespondent.com/17920/who-will-win-the-next-election/ (scroll down). I expect it'll be similarly close this time.

[whybother]

As the pro-Thaksin camp secured victory by fewer than 100,000 popular votes

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2007

according to wikepedia the saMAK HEADED party won by about 5 mil popular votes!

The PTP won the Constituency vote by 5 million votes. In the Constituency vote, people make more than one vote. The vote also refers to local constituencies, so in some areas a party gets a very high proportion of the vote, but they still only get one MP.

The Democrats won the Proportional (party list) vote. In the proportional vote, every votes just once.

The Democrats didn't win the Proportional vote, PPP won that by just 200,000 votes. The figures are here: http://asiancorrespo...-next-election/ (scroll down). I expect it'll be similarly close this time.

Thankyou. It's been mentioned before that wiki had the wrong figures but I've never seen the correct ones.

Interesting analysis too. I'd like to see a similar unbiased analysis now.

Given that BJT will steal quite a few votes from PTP (PPP), I would think that the Democrats will come out ahead on proportional votes this time around, but close it will be.

Also, the constituency vote will be more relevant this time, with each person only having one constituency vote.

Edited June 7, 2011 by whybother

[pastitche]

Should the Democrats claim victory, ... As Pheu Thai leader, Yongyuth Wichaidit would then be destined to become the opposition leader. Pheu Thai candidate Yingluck Shinawatra would take her seat as a first-time MP on the opposition bench.

If Pheu Thai wins, Yingluck will become Thailand's first female prime minister ... . Yongyuth would likely enjoy concurrent appointments as a first-time coalition lawmaker and a new Cabinet member with the interior portfolio.

So if PTP wins, Yingluck is PM. If they lose, she's doesn't become the opposition leader??

In other words, she's just a figure head. She can't do the job.

I am disappointed in you whybother, you normally provide sound arguments for your conclusions. To take an opinion columnist's unsubstantiated statement that the PT Party leader would become leader of the opposition and conclude from that postulation that Yingluck can't do the job does not make sense. That she may not have the expertise might be true and that parliamentary precedent suggests that Yongyuth would,in the event of a Democrat victory take up the parliamentary leadership, she is the kingmaker's anointee and ... when has there ever been a candidate for PM who has never served in parliament?

[whybother]

I am disappointed in you whybother, you normally provide sound arguments for your conclusions. To take an opinion columnist's unsubstantiated statement that the PT Party leader would become leader of the opposition and conclude from that postulation that Yingluck can't do the job does not make sense. That she may not have the expertise might be true and that parliamentary precedent suggests that Yongyuth would,in the event of a Democrat victory take up the parliamentary leadership, she is the kingmaker's anointee and ... when has there ever been a candidate for PM who has never served in parliament?

Apologies for not providing more analysis.

Actually, it's quite common in Australia (and I think in the UK) for a losing PM candidate to resign as an MP, especially when they were previously PM.

I don't expect Yingluck to stay in parliament if PTP don't get into government. I couldn't imagine Thaksin in opposition either. Too much loss of face for both of them.