Make Or Break For Thaksin

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Make or break for Thaksin

By BUNDIT CHANSRIKHAM

THE NATION

Yingluck's Northeast travel itinerary raises questions whether Pheu Thai is worried about its prospects, given its intention to strive for a landslide in its stronghold

What was perceived as an unusual campaign trail by Yingluck Shinawatra in the Northeast over the past two days has spawned rife speculation. The Pheu Thai Party portrayed the exhaustive, whirlwind tour of "mega-red" provinces as a final stroke to ensure a landslide victory in the region, but many observers interpreted it as a sign of an anxiety attack.

The truth may lie somewhere in between. Nong Khai, Bung Kan, Sakhon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom and Udon Thani are known in this election campaign as Pheu Thai's unbreachable fortresses, so there should be no need for Thaksin Shinawatra's youngest sister to make a hectic, parachuting visit - that she had to reflect the provinces' strategic importance in this high-stake political race.

"Thaksin wants to make sure that Pheu Thai's win in the region is a landslide," a party source told The Nation. "That's why nothing is being taken for granted."

The observers argued that if Pheu Thai had not detected something irregular, Yingluck would not have been made to travel to six or seven rally sites a day over the past two days. A "landslide" strategy should have involved visits to constituencies that will be tightly contested, not tiring schedules in areas where the party was supposed to score easy wins anyway.

The sceptics did not see Yingluck's strange itinerary as a confidence-boosting tour. Rather, they suspect Pheu Thai was worried by its candidates' inferior personalities, and that their rivals could rise up if the Yingluck-Thaksin fever begins to subside.

Rivals of Pheu Thai have been trying to drive home that point. "Go- ahead and give Pheu Thai your party-list vote if you like Thaksin," voters in the Northeast have been told. "But when it comes to constituency candidates, we have better quality people, so give us a chance."

The rivals have solid canvassing networks in the said provinces, and their candidates are generally local veterans with good connections.

While Thaksin-Yingluck "fever" could sweep away those advantages, lesser Pheu Thai candidates would struggle if the groundswell at the grass-roots proves to be weaker than anticipated on July 3.

For example, in Udon Thani's Constituency 8, Kriangsak Faisi-ngam had Thaksin "fever" to thank totally in the last election. Against Democrat Chokesaman Leelawong this time, Kriangsak would have no chance under normal circumstances, but overwhelming "red" sentiment could seal the contest in Pheu Thai's favour.

Almost 15 million voters make the Northeast the most important strategically for Pheu Thai, which hopes to win at least 102 out of 126 seats available in the region. A big northeastern sweep could edge the party closer to the ambitious aim of winning the House majority.

Pheu Thai also wants to improve its party-list gains. A glance at what People Power Party (which was dissolved in 2008 and reincarnated into Pheu Thai) won in the nationwide party-list contest in 2007 - 12.6 million votes against the Democrats' 12.5 million - there is big room for improvement. Yingluck's unexpected attention to the "red" provinces over the past few days may be linked to a desire to achieve even greater success than 2007. The party knows it will win in the region, but it needs a crushing win to fulfil a lofty goal.

However, while seven stops in one day may be considered proof of such ambition, it could also reflect some paranoia. After all, the party's rivals are campaigning like they have nothing to lose in the Northeast, and if that attitude can be translated in a seat here and a couple of seats there, Thaksin's dreams may be shattered.

-- The Nation 2011-06-08

[geriatrickid]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

Edited June 8, 2011 by geriatrickid

[whybother]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

That doesn't really apply when the seats are already won. Why preach to the converted?

[Thaddeus]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

That doesn't really apply when the seats are already won. Why preach to the converted?

What if the converted need a constant reminder?

[whybother]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

That doesn't really apply when the seats are already won. Why preach to the converted?

What if the converted need a constant reminder?

Then the PTP are going to have real trouble in the rest of the country.

[housepainter]

Th ePress has refered to the woman as 'Yingluck', and we clearly understand to whom they refer. Now we have the confusing headline of 'Thaksin' and for several years now that has meant one man. There is obviously a deliberate attempt to confuse.

Worse there is an attempt to do what the PT want. And that is associate Yingluck, the party, the second rate candidates with Thaksin himself.

Let the Thai people get what they deserve. Their fecklesness has delivered a country mired in poverty and corruption, high levels of crime, drug dependency, low education, HIV rates and a rampant sex industry.

It's up to them.

The political system they get is something they can not blame on the foreigne influence. We don't vote. They do.

If Thaksin is returned then how much worse will it be than if he doesn't? There are no knights in shining armour about to right wrongs. The Thai ship sails in a sewer. Do you expect a breath of fresh air?

[Ricardo]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

That doesn't really apply when the seats are already won. Why preach to the converted?

What if the converted need a constant reminder?

Or a constant retainer, too ? Kerr .. Chinggg !

It can't hurt, for Ms Yingluck's first rallies to be seen in the national-media to be successful, but for PTP to win a landslide or even 300 seats, they will need to do well in Bangkok & Central-Thailand too, as well as fend-off the BJT-threat in the North-East. Perhaps this part of her campaign is aimed at the latter target ?

Taking the longer-view, if DL can afford to do that, it's only another year or two before the 5-year-bans start to expire, and his more-experienced supporters become eligible to rejoin the fray again.

Not of course that this matters much since, as is well-known, he has permanently "quit Thai politics" !

[Buchholz]

Taking the longer-view, if DL can afford to do that, it's only another year or two before the 5-year-bans start to expire, and his more-experienced supporters become eligible to rejoin the fray again.

2Bangkok.com's helpful automated dual ticker.

[warfie]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

That doesn't really apply when the seats are already won. Why preach to the converted?

To ensure that they remain "converted"?

[Thaddeus]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit. More effective to collect the easier to win seats than to bang one's head against the wall of the south. The Dems will do the same thing in the south and Bangkok. Why would any political party leave anything to chance when every seat counts?

That doesn't really apply when the seats are already won. Why preach to the converted?

What if the converted need a constant reminder?

Or a constant retainer, too ? Kerr .. Chinggg !

That is probably more accurate.

[animatic]

I think putting the Red Shirts Leaders on the party list has the potential to lose them many northern moderates who did not like being lumped in with the rioters, as if all northern Thais think like Redshirts and ONLY like redshirts.

I doubt that the decreasing numbers at Red Rallies as they got more violent, leading to April 18th, was lost on many older Thais up north, regardless of the propaganda campaign to spin it. It's clear the red spin hasn't had the effect expected, because the Government did NOT fall as historically expected, but the violence they started can't be denied.

Many people are much more conservative than these over the top zealots and got scared seeing Bangkok REALLY burning and finding the Reds Rhetoric wasn't just rhetoric after all. PTP must truly worry that the silent majority DOES need constant reminding to get back on the train.

Older people prefer stability more than young zealots.

A consistant fact in all cultures.

Edited June 8, 2011 by animatic

[hyperdimension]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit.

... or cowardice.

Even Abhisit was willing to campaign in the North and Northeast.

Is Yingluck scheduled to campaign in the South?

[animatic]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit.

... or cowardice.

Even Abhisit was willing to campaign in the North and Northeast.

Is Yingluck scheduled to campaign in the South?

If she does, she will be treated better than Abhisit has been up north.

[bungalownights]

This is the battleground between BJT and Thaksin. Expect to see a lot more votes given to PT at BJT's expense come election day.

[animatic]

This is the battleground between BJT and Thaksin. Expect to see a lot more votes given to PT at BJT's expense come election day.

Yeah right,

so why are the PTP Puyais obviously so scared of that BJT threat in their home bases? Maybe because the BJT has no red leaders with blood on their hands on their party list.

It will be a grand fight, but the silent majority WILL have it's say and PTP has little clue what that might be, but are acting scared about that.

Edited June 8, 2011 by animatic

[lannarebirth]

This is the battleground between BJT and Thaksin. Expect to see a lot more votes given to PT at BJT's expense come election day.

Why would anyone with sympathies for either vote for PT? BJT has said they will form a coalition with the winner. Why risk being on the losing side? Mercenarily speaking of course.

[slapout]

With displays of remembering, planning, listening to all sides of a debate, clam during a crises, desire for material things, etc of most of the Thais I have encountered over the years. I think I will wait to make my election outcome comments until after the ballots/horse trading/legal system scenarios have been finalized. I wonder if Vegas is making book on this circus?

[bungalownights]

This is the battleground between BJT and Thaksin. Expect to see a lot more votes given to PT at BJT's expense come election day.

Why would anyone with sympathies for either vote for PT? BJT has said they will form a coalition with the winner. Why risk being on the losing side? Mercenarily speaking of course.

But as you know PT said they will not ally with BJT. A good political move by PT as it will effectively strengthen them and weaken BJT at voting time.

In addition, I'm expecting both a split in BJT with some MPs returning to PT sometime soon after elections.

[geriatrickid]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit.

... or cowardice.

Even Abhisit was willing to campaign in the North and Northeast.

Is Yingluck scheduled to campaign in the South?

If she does, she will be treated better than Abhisit has been up north.

Provided her campaign is able to send a high powered advanced security team ahead of her and to flood the are with security when she visits.

Sorry, but the PM's visits are distinguished by a big investment in security before he shows up. I'm not criticizing as the PM has every right to security, but the difference is that the PM has an advantage as the security protection and military deployment are paid for by the taxpayers, whereas all of the other political parties pick up the bill. The perk of being an incumbent PM.

[lannarebirth]

This is the battleground between BJT and Thaksin. Expect to see a lot more votes given to PT at BJT's expense come election day.

Why would anyone with sympathies for either vote for PT? BJT has said they will form a coalition with the winner. Why risk being on the losing side? Mercenarily speaking of course.

But as you know PT said they will not ally with BJT.

Right, that's how I knew they would be more than pleased to ally with them, or anyone really.

[ginjag]

With displays of remembering, planning, listening to all sides of a debate, clam during a crises, desire for material things, etc of most of the Thais I have encountered over the years. I think I will wait to make my election outcome comments until after the ballots/horse trading/legal system scenarios have been finalized. I wonder if Vegas is making book on this circus?

Massive rallies yesterday in Udon PROVINCE, I emphasized that for towns and villages. For attending only===truth==all people that attended these red shirt rallies were handed 100 baht. Thai persons told me today. Must have been an entrance fee in reverse. Just on a different note to all the people that say everyone in the N/East works for a pittance --they had a day off in midweek to attend

[janverbeem]

With displays of remembering, planning, listening to all sides of a debate, clam during a crises, desire for material things, etc of most of the Thais I have encountered over the years. I think I will wait to make my election outcome comments until after the ballots/horse trading/legal system scenarios have been finalized. I wonder if Vegas is making book on this circus?

Massive rallies yesterday in Udon PROVINCE, I emphasized that for towns and villages. For attending only===truth==all people that attended these red shirt rallies were handed 100 baht. Thai persons told me today. Must have been an entrance fee in reverse. Just on a different note to all the people that say everyone in the N/East works for a pittance --they had a day off in midweek to attend

Of course,100 Baht and free entertainment and probably some free food and drinks,what could you wish more for when you normally have to work a full day for the same.

[Buchholz]

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit.

... or cowardice.

Even Abhisit was willing to campaign in the North and Northeast.

Is Yingluck scheduled to campaign in the South?

If she does, she will be treated better than Abhisit has been up north.

Provided her campaign is able to send a high powered advanced security team ahead of her and to flood the are with security when she visits.

Sorry, but the PM's visits are distinguished by a big investment in security before he shows up. I'm not criticizing as the PM has every right to security, but the difference is that the PM has an advantage as the security protection and military deployment are paid for by the taxpayers, whereas all of the other political parties pick up the bill. The perk of being an incumbent PM.

The reality is that he is actually a caretaker PM with limitations on what sort of privileges he has, including security:

PM Abhisit Advised By EC To Keep Perks Out Of Campaigning

Additionally, he's accorded the same sort of protection that many candidates are seeking

Thai Police Respond As Campaigning Politicians Ask For Protection

which particularly highlights the type of security you are describing, but yet it's available to all candidates.

[animatic]

'geriatrickid' timestamp='1307500129' post='4475878'

It's called harvesting the low hanging fruit.

... or cowardice.

Even Abhisit was willing to campaign in the North and Northeast.

Is Yingluck scheduled to campaign in the South?

If she does, she will be treated better than Abhisit has been up north.

Provided her campaign is able to send a high powered advanced security team ahead of her and to flood the are with security when she visits.

Sorry, but the PM's visits are distinguished by a big investment in security before he shows up. I'm not criticizing as the PM has every right to security, but the difference is that the PM has an advantage as the security protection and military deployment are paid for by the taxpayers, whereas all of the other political parties pick up the bill. The perk of being an incumbent PM.

The reality is that he is actually a caretaker PM with limitations on what sort of privileges he has, including security:

PM Abhisit Advised By EC To Keep Perks Out Of Campaigning

http://www.thaivisa....of-campaigning/

Additionally, he's accorded the same sort of protection that many candidates are seeking

Thai Police Respond As Campaigning Politicians Ask For Protection

http://www.thaivisa....for-protection/

which particularly highlights the type of security you are describing, but yet it's available to all candidates.

Historically there has been little or no harassment of ANY TRT, PPP, or PTP candidates in the south,

not counting the restive muslim south, where any and all ethnic Thais or those that associate with them are targets.

Even in Sutheps home base Surat Thani, they are allowed to make their speeches and hold rallies without problems,

they also lose handily and that's one reason why, no one fears them making inroads, so just let them talk.

A stark contrast to Issan where all dissenting voices are hounded out, or the bosses must tell their foot soldiers to let them speak.

Edited June 8, 2011 by animatic

[beautifulthailand99]

Was just thinking if this was America she would be assinated - for all its problems and faults Thailand does some things just right.

[slapout]

The US do not seem to assassinate "want to bees" They just dig out all the skeletons for the past couple of generations for their entire family. That would take a novel, in this case, a comic book depicting this would probably be more effective here in Thailand.

[ginjag]

With displays of remembering, planning, listening to all sides of a debate, clam during a crises, desire for material things, etc of most of the Thais I have encountered over the years. I think I will wait to make my election outcome comments until after the ballots/horse trading/legal system scenarios have been finalized. I wonder if Vegas is making book on this circus?

Massive rallies yesterday in Udon PROVINCE, I emphasized that for towns and villages. For attending only===truth==all people that attended these red shirt rallies were handed 100 baht. Thai persons told me today. Must have been an entrance fee in reverse. Just on a different note to all the people that say everyone in the N/East works for a pittance --they had a day off in midweek to attend

Of course,100 Baht and free entertainment and probably some free food and drinks,what could you wish more for when you normally have to work a full day for the same.

If you value your work pittance or not, Ha. tools down party time again. I am not knocking the poor, just the gist of it all, remembering all the lost days and money during the Bkk disturbances. If they can afford all the time off whenever there is an event up to them. Maybe I AM old fashioned in thinking, but I couldn't dream of doing things like this when I was working. But that was in the 20's Ha Ha...sad to say that but rurally in general whether its a birth, funeral, marriage, blessing and all the rest, normally village life-whiskey, gambling, fighting, drunks awash, party time. I didn't say it's wrong-just a local observer only, posting what I see.

[anterian]

there might be a simpler reason for Yingluck touring safe areas. She is a newcomer to the political arena, she needs to gain experience and confidence fast. Thus it is better to start with a responsive and sympathetic audience before moving on to areas where she will have to handle heckling and abuse, or worse.

Remember how shaken and frightened Abhisit was when his car was attacked, he fled and hid in the army barracks. What would be the effect of a similar attack on a young woman?

[animatic]

'Break' sounds good to me.

[ginjag]

there might be a simpler reason for Yingluck touring safe areas. She is a newcomer to the political arena, she needs to gain experience and confidence fast. Thus it is better to start with a responsive and sympathetic audience before moving on to areas where she will have to handle heckling and abuse, or worse.

Remember how shaken and frightened Abhisit was when his car was attacked, he fled and hid in the army barracks. What would be the effect of a similar attack on a young woman?

Hey come on think about it-you said"" she needs experience so she can get some from safe areas"" She needs more than a MONTH of experience to become a P.M. of a country and be on the world stage to converse with world issues.

Not take care of Thai farmers in Issan, it will not do a world leader any good at all if you know of little else.

Anyway confidence does not also come in a month. No matter who you are if your car is attacked you want cover, or you have a problem. Who knows she could become a super Thai leader but most get a gut feeling something is a bit dodgy about the set up. I will add personally she could well get enough votes, but shake my head for Thailand.

but the shake is not a nod.

Edited June 9, 2011 by ginjag