Pheu Thai Maintains Lead In Bangkok

[webfact]

Pheu Thai maintains lead in Bangkok

By THE NATION

The Pheu Thai Party is leading in 18 of Bangkok's 33 constituencies and the Democrat Party in six constituencies, according to the results of a second public-opinion survey by Dhurakij Pundit University.

In the remaining nine Bangkok constituencies the performance of the two largest parties is too close to call.

The result was a slight improvement for the Democrats at Pheu Thai's expense. However, the survey also found that the Democrat Party was losing some of its popularity to new political parties like Rak Santi and Rak Thailand, which were gaining support from survey respondents who said they remained undecided on which way they would vote.

In the previous poll conducted from May 23 to May 25 on 6,230 eligible voters in Bangkok, Pheu Thai led in 19 constituencies, the Democrats in five constituencies, and the results were inconclusive in nine.

The second survey by the university's Dhurakij Pundit Poll was conducted from June 3 to June 6. It involved 8,616 eligible voters.

In the latest survey, Pheu Thai was leading in constituencies 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 29, 31, and 33. The Democrats were leading in constituencies 1, 2, 10, 22, 27, and 32. The rest were too close to call.

The survey also found that 86 per cent of respondents said they would cast their votes on July 3, while only 5 per cent said they planned not to go to the polls.

Of those who intended to vote, 55 per cent said they had made up their mind which candidate and political party they would vote for and would never change their mind, and 9 per cent said they might change their mind. Another 31 per cent said they remained undecided. The remaining 5 per cent said they would tick the "No" vote box on the ballot paper.

In the previous survey last month, as many as 16 per cent of respondents said they had already made up their minds, but admitted they could change when actually going to the polls. The pollsters concluded that the reduction in this group could be due to the fact that many of them had obtained sufficient information to make firm decisions.

The pollsters said that the large number of voters who remained undecided - 31 per cent, almost unchanged from the previous survey - meant that both the Democrats and Pheu Thai still had a good chance of winning in constituencies where the lead was less than 10 per cent.

However, they said that in addition to Pheu Thai, the Democrats also had to fight with Rak Santi and Rak Thailand for support from voters who remained undecided.

In the previous general elections in December 2007, when 36 House seats were contested in the capital, the Democrats won 27 seats and Pheu Thai's predecessor, the People Power Party, won nine.

-- The Nation 2011-06-10

[caribbeanman]

bye-bye suthep

[timekeeper]

bye-bye suthep

white girl speak with forked tongue.......

bye bye Yingluck

[whybother]

bye-bye suthep

Still 30% undecided.

[Lite Beer]

A post using an incorrect name for the PM has been removed.

[lungmi]

bye-bye suthep

Still 30% undecided.

A poll where more than 25% are undecided has no special significance. No extrapolation possible.

[Ricardo]

bye-bye suthep

Still 30% undecided.

A poll where more than 25% are undecided has no special significance. No extrapolation possible.

"another 31% say they remain undecided"

So it's still wide-open, in one of the key battle-grounds.

Wonder what a similar poll, comparing BJT & PTP in Isaan, might show ?

All very interesting.

[Mosha]

Is this counting the non natives ie the Isaan ladies? Just asking.

[Bkkorupcountry]

I imagine that most of the members of this forum are foreign expats living in Thailand. Does it matter to any of you as to who the PM or ruling party is and why? Serious question as I'm planning to retire here very shortly. Tks

[otherstuff1957]

<br />I imagine that most of the members of this forum are foreign expats living in Thailand. Does it matter to any of you as to who the PM or ruling party is and why? Serious question as I'm planning to retire here very shortly. Tks<br />

<br /><br /><br />

IMHO, it really wouldn't make much difference in your day to day life who the PM is or who the ruling party (or coalition) is. However, if PT does win or put together a coalition, they will probably do their best to bring Thaksin back. This move could very well trigger something that would look a lot like a civil war... which probably would matter to us expats!

[letitbe]

<br />I imagine that most of the members of this forum are foreign expats living in Thailand. Does it matter to any of you as to who the PM or ruling party is and why? Serious question as I'm planning to retire here very shortly. Tks<br />

<br /><br /><br />

IMHO, it really wouldn't make much difference in your day to day life who the PM is or who the ruling party (or coalition) is. However, if PT does win or put together a coalition, they will probably do their best to bring Thaksin back. This move could very well trigger something that would look a lot like a civil war... which probably would matter to us expats!

exactly I guarantee if Mr T comes back their will be civil war and if he does not the reds will again try and cause havoc only this time they may not be alloyed to go around with guns grenades and mobs attempting to burn burn burn The only hope for Thailand if he comes back is another coup which I for one would support 100% if it meant not letting a bunch of total thugs take over the country and I will probably also leave with my Thai wife and children. I have already stopped bringing any more into this country and will slowly sell our assets here except the house which amount to around 100 million baht. I know lots of others who are waiting to see. Where to move to thats problem. Forget Cambodia or Vietnam maybe Laos or Singapore

[lungmi]

bye-bye suthep

Still 30% undecided.

A poll where more than 25% are undecided has no special significance. No extrapolation possible.

"another 31% say they remain undecided"

So it's still wide-open, in one of the key battle-grounds.

Wonder what a similar poll, comparing BJT & PTP in Isaan, might show ?

All very interesting.

In Lampang city and southern amphoes the billboards of BJT at the highway are superior in number than PTP boards. In TAK province (Dem stronghold) BJT campaigns hardly, not against the Dems, no way). BJT aims the PTP voters who are against Thaksin and the amnesty BS. I have "red" friends , they confirm me that BJT is a possibilty for them to vote.

Edited June 10, 2011 by lungmi

[lungmi]

I imagine that most of the members of this forum are foreign expats living in Thailand. Does it matter to any of you as to who the PM or ruling party is and why? Serious question as I'm planning to retire here very shortly. Tks

It's money. When Thaksin comes back it is very good for your money. The Baht goes down, the economics too and with your farang money (except Greece) your currency guarantees a quiet live.

But I think you want a little bit more. Good neighbourhood, social contacts, introduced to a different culture etc. For this you have to investigate seriously where in Thailand you want to retire.

[pastitche]

<br />I imagine that most of the members of this forum are foreign expats living in Thailand. Does it matter to any of you as to who the PM or ruling party is and why? Serious question as I'm planning to retire here very shortly. Tks<br />

<br /><br /><br />

IMHO, it really wouldn't make much difference in your day to day life who the PM is or who the ruling party (or coalition) is. However, if PT does win or put together a coalition, they will probably do their best to bring Thaksin back. This move could very well trigger something that would look a lot like a civil war... which probably would matter to us expats!

exactly I guarantee if Mr T comes back their will be civil war and if he does not the reds will again try and cause havoc only this time they may not be alloyed to go around with guns grenades and mobs attempting to burn burn burn The only hope for Thailand if he comes back is another coup which I for one would support 100% if it meant not letting a bunch of total thugs take over the country and I will probably also leave with my Thai wife and children. I have already stopped bringing any more into this country and will slowly sell our assets here except the house which amount to around 100 million baht. I know lots of others who are waiting to see. Where to move to thats problem. Forget Cambodia or Vietnam maybe Laos or Singapore

If the reds are the the ones with the guns and grenades and cause havoc but through their political party, PTP win power, who do you think will start this civil war that you guarantee?

Surely not the Dems, or do they have a paramilitary wing that no-one has heard of, maybe the middle-aged ladies of PAD?

It's a bit unfair to make illogical statements like yours to an innocent poster who will probably have a totally pleasant life, anywhere in Thailand where most of the people have little interest in the apocalyptic politics that so obsess many posters here

[otherstuff1957]

PAD is currently a pretty much a spent force.  No-one really cares about or supports their nationalistic anti-Cambodian nonsense.  It's the army that won't let Thaksin come back.  If Thaksin tries to seize power again, we will see most of the Army fighting against the Reds, some Pro-Red army units and the police (who will be pretty much useless).   

 I'm not saying this because I hope that this will happen, and maybe I'm wrong, but it's the logical conclusion to draw based on the events of the past few years.  I'd also predict that if PT wins and concentrates on running the country, instead of rehabilitating Thaksin, there won't be any violence and they will be allowed to serve out their term.

Edited June 11, 2011 by otherstuff1957

[geriatrickid]

Time for a song,

Jim Morrison, are you there

This is the end .......................

[OZEMADE]

Time for a song,

Jim Morrison, are you there

This is the end .......................

Good song, reminds me of Vietnam. Me thinks the writing is on the wall, looks like Yingluck is a bit strong and possibly with military backing.

[samurai]

<br />I imagine that most of the members of this forum are foreign expats living in Thailand. Does it matter to any of you as to who the PM or ruling party is and why? Serious question as I'm planning to retire here very shortly. Tks<br />

<br /><br /><br />

IMHO, it really wouldn't make much difference in your day to day life who the PM is or who the ruling party (or coalition) is. However, if PT does win or put together a coalition, they will probably do their best to bring Thaksin back. This move could very well trigger something that would look a lot like a civil war... which probably would matter to us expats!

A civil war?

If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.

[rixalex]

If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.

Leaving aside the fact that the electorate is there to decide on which party governs, not on which convicted criminals are allowed to evade justice, if PT doesn't win a majority, but does form a coalition government, they could still bring Thaksin back.

And yes, a civil war would i think then be a possibility.

[hanuman1]

If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.

Leaving aside the fact that the electorate is there to decide on which party governs, not on which convicted criminals are allowed to evade justice, if PT doesn't win a majority, but does form a coalition government, they could still bring Thaksin back.

And yes, a civil war would i think then be a possibility.

And if a civil war did kick off in the scenario you just mentioned, would the instigators of said war be the government or the rebels? I know it's a tough one to answer even if we were talking about a real situation, but it's an interesting one to take out for a cream tea on a Sunday afternoon.

[otherstuff1957]

A civil war? <br /><br />If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

In 1860, in the US, the majority of the American people voted for Lincoln. I'm pretty sure that the 600,000+ dead soldiers over the next 5 years would consider what happened after the election to be something that strongly resembled a civil war.

[rixalex]

If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.

Leaving aside the fact that the electorate is there to decide on which party governs, not on which convicted criminals are allowed to evade justice, if PT doesn't win a majority, but does form a coalition government, they could still bring Thaksin back.

And yes, a civil war would i think then be a possibility.

And if a civil war did kick off in the scenario you just mentioned, would the instigators of said war be the government or the rebels? I know it's a tough one to answer even if we were talking about a real situation, but it's an interesting one to take out for a cream tea on a Sunday afternoon.

In the situation i mentioned, the instigators would be all those who oppose Thaksin being able to walk back in, avoid punishment and resume where he left off.

[hanuman1]

If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.

Leaving aside the fact that the electorate is there to decide on which party governs, not on which convicted criminals are allowed to evade justice, if PT doesn't win a majority, but does form a coalition government, they could still bring Thaksin back.

And yes, a civil war would i think then be a possibility.

And if a civil war did kick off in the scenario you just mentioned, would the instigators of said war be the government or the rebels? I know it's a tough one to answer even if we were talking about a real situation, but it's an interesting one to take out for a cream tea on a Sunday afternoon.

In the situation i mentioned, the instigators would be all those who oppose Thaksin being able to walk back in, avoid punishment and resume where he left off.

I still can't see a civil war happening in this generation. If push comes to shove, I think it'll be similar in scale to last years violence, the reason being that those who could fight for a threatened PTP government - lower ranked army and police - still won't have reached that 'critical mass' of ill feeling required to take up arms and risk everything. Not to mention most other people not involved in the security forces who would be in even less of a position to make a difference and also the fact there's still the significance of HRH still being around.

So recent history would probably repeat itself. That's not to say a civil war will never happen, I just think enough people aren't desperate enough to take that step at the moment.

Thailand in the short to middle term will simply become the one country in the world where coups are recognized as the de facto method of choosing governments, with a legal system and changing constitutions that have unwittingly become the natural antidote for democracy.

[rixalex]

I still can't see a civil war happening in this generation.

I like your confidence. I don't share it. Just last year the country came perilously close to completely disintegrating into chaos and disorder, and next time it does, 90 deaths might seem a low number.

[samurai]

A civil war? <br /><br />If PT will be able to bring back Thaksin, then it will be because the majority of Thai people vote for it an election.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

In 1860, in the US, the majority of the American people voted for Lincoln. I'm pretty sure that the 600,000+ dead soldiers over the next 5 years would consider what happened after the election to be something that strongly resembled a civil war.

There were also a couple more civil wars in history in different countries of this planet.

And that election in 1860 wasn't the only election that ever took place in history before the 2011 election in Thailand.

Usually elections don't end in civil wars. a military coup maybe now and then or emergency laws if the government is not loved by the people and voter feel cheated, but normally everything is fine for four years or so and elections again.

What makes you think "that bringing Thaksin back" would start a civil war. Who would start that civil war if PT wins?

Actually Thaksin was never really absent, but present all the time and even more in this election campaign. His biological body is abroad, but otherwise he never left the scene. As a daily news topic, with his influences in politics and his own participation in the political discourse he was and is always here.

If PT voter vote for PT they know exactly for what they are voting - Thaksin. If you don't want Thaksin vote for a different party.

( A side question would be how much PT voters actually care about *the one and only* or if they just don't mind that much, like many non PT voter will not consider Thaksin as the hot issue and their non vote for Thaksin not as anti Thaksin vote. There are so many other issues that let the voters come to a choice.

Do you think if Abhisit will lose that election again, that he will go underground and start a "resistance movement"?

[hanuman1]

I still can't see a civil war happening in this generation.

I like your confidence. I don't share it. Just last year the country came perilously close to completely disintegrating into chaos and disorder, and next time it does, 90 deaths might seem a low number.

Since you're referring to something that actually happened, could you tell me what the main signals were that you picked up that led you to believe the country was perilously close to disintegrating?

I remember there was one report of a brief exchange of shots between soldiers and police, but for me it would take something on a far larger scale than that to really push the country to the brink of civil war. I can't see how it could happen unless the security forces themselves were disintegrating.

Having a few hundred people torching town halls in half a dozen provinces also isn't indicative of this country being on the brink, in my opinion.

Edited June 11, 2011 by hanuman1

[whybother]

<snip>

If PT voter vote for PT they know exactly for what they are voting - Thaksin. If you don't want Thaksin vote for a different party.

( A side question would be how much PT voters actually care about *the one and only* or if they just don't mind that much, like many non PT voter will not consider Thaksin as the hot issue and their non vote for Thaksin not as anti Thaksin vote. There are so many other issues that let the voters come to a choice.

<snip>

I hope all the other red shirts supporters think the same, in that if the PTP don't get a majority of the vote, then it's clear that a majority of the people don't want Thaksin back.

I would hope then, that Thaksin decides to &lt;deleted&gt; and wither into the background.

But, we've already seen that even without a majority, the Thaksin puppet parties still try to push their agenda through to whitewash Thaksin's crimes. I would expect his "clone" to try the same thing.

[rixalex]

Since you're referring to something that actually happened, could you tell me what the main signals were that you picked up that led you to believe the country was perilously close to disintegrating?

The fact that the entire centre of the capital city was held completely to ransom for a number of weeks, with authorities increasingly looking nervy, unsure and indecisive, and with a blood bath likely to ensue any minute. The atmosphere for those of us living in Bangkok was nerve-jangling.

The blood bath did come, but not to the extent many, including myself, feared it would. Had it been worse, had the reds stayed to fight instead of torching and fleeing, had the PM been physically attacked, possibly killed, as seemed a possibility when his car was attacked... well, i'm not sure what would have happened, or whether it would have meant civil war, but it certainly wouldn't have been pretty.

[rixalex]

But, we've already seen that even without a majority, the Thaksin puppet parties still try to push their agenda through to whitewash Thaksin's crimes. I would expect his "clone" to try the same thing.

Be rude of her not to.

[gemini81]

I still can't see a civil war happening in this generation.

I like your confidence. I don't share it. Just last year the country came perilously close to completely disintegrating into chaos and disorder, and next time it does, 90 deaths might seem a low number.

Since you're referring to something that actually happened, could you tell me what the main signals were that you picked up that led you to believe the country was perilously close to disintegrating?

I remember there was one report of a brief exchange of shots between soldiers and police, but for me it would take something on a far larger scale than that to really push the country to the brink of civil war. I can't see how it could happen unless the security forces themselves were disintegrating.

Having a few hundred people torching town halls in half a dozen provinces also isn't indicative of this country being on the brink, in my opinion.

Can you tell us where abouts abroad you were at the time to not notice? Can you not tell the politics and instability, the division of groups, the friction between police and army, and state of things is headed? It's clear that there will be some catastrophic events within the next two to three years.