Abhisit Stays Defiant

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Abhisit stays defiant

By THE NATION

In an exclusive interview, Democrat chief says he's unfazed by opinion polls

Abhisit Vejjajiva's well-known eloquence can sometimes make it hard to tell if he's being defiant or simply stating the obvious. That was the case yesterday when, during an exclusive interview with The Nation, the prime minister sought to dismiss his buoyant political rivals' begging for a chance to form the next government. Opinion polls have margins of error, and the upcoming election may yet be closer than everyone believes right now, he said.

The Democrat leader refuses to give up. While virtually questioning their accuracy, Abhisit noted that none of the major pollsters like Dusit, Abac and Nida had predicted the Pheu Thai Party would win a majority (a minimum of 251 seats) of the House of Representatives. He took time to emphasise this point because his chances of keeping office may hinge on it.

One day after Pheu Thai prime minister candidate Yingluck Shinawatra pleaded on TV for the right to form the next government if her party wins the most seats (regardless of whether it wins 251 or more), Abhisit reiterated that even Western democracies allowed smaller parties to group together and grab power. He also saw what he described as a discrepancy in how Pheu Thai foresees the election outcome.

"On one hand, Pheu Thai is telling the public that it's expecting a landslide victory, a sweep of up to 300 seats. If they are so confident about that, why do they keep demanding the right to form the government?" Abhisit asked. "If you win, say, 270 seats or more, you don't even have to ask. Who will be able to deny you the right?"

He vowed to give Pheu Thai a chance if it wins, but made clear that if the party tried and failed to command a majority in the House, it would be his party's turn. Abhisit also warned Pheu Thai, which has been asking its rivals to "respect" election results, to do the same if the outcome was not as it expected. Abhisit said he was afraid that Pheu Thai, which was drumming up its "landslide" prospect almost on a daily basis, could cry foul if the election results did not go its way.

Abhisit was cautious when commenting on his coalition allies, all of whom bar Bhum Jai Thai are believed to be ready to switch sides and back Pheu Thai in the blink of an eye. "I saw no problems when I met them at Cabinet meetings," he said, half tongue-in-cheek. He attributed some anti-Democrat remarks by the allies recently to their need to gain media space currently dominated by the two biggest parties.

Most analysts believe the Democrats will need most, if not all, their current allies to remain loyal to them to stand any chance of keeping power. In this pro-Democrat scenario, Abhisit's party needs to win around 170 seats or more, and the present partners must together win closer to 100 so the alliance can edge out Pheu Thai and claim the right to form a government.

Pro-Pheu Thai scenarios have the opposition camp either scoring a real landslide, sweeping more than 250 seats, or winning fewer than 250 but close enough. Pheu Thai needs to be in a position to tempt just one or two smaller parties with great incentives. Either the Chart Thai Pattana Party or the Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party, or both, will fancy their chances in the two scenarios. Pheu Thai can also form a single-party administration if the 300-seat expectation becomes reality.

Abhisit hinted that the Democrats would step up their campaign by scrutinising the Pheu Thai Party's blanket amnesty plan with greater intensity. He said he did not believe the rival camp's pledge would lead to reconciliation but rather keep the political conflict alive.

He cautioned that there was danger in Pheu Thai's use of the amnesty amid a myriad of election promises. There was no way to determine if pro-Pheu Thai voters wanted the amnesty or supported its other policies, he said. According to Abhisit, if Pheu Thai was to push for a public referendum on the amnesty, it could be at the expense of reconciliation.

Democrat sources still rule out a TV debate between Abhisit and Yingluck, a showdown the ruling party believes could reverse its sagging fortunes prior to July 3. Odds remain against Abhisit with three weeks to go, but the biggest sign of defiance, if that was what he demonstrated yesterday, could be his answer to the question of whether his House dissolution was mistimed, and thus a mistake. "No. I still believe the election is the only way out," he said.

-- The Nation 2011-06-11

[vont]

i wonder how apisit and the rest of the democrats could remain in the center of the road and in somewhat a more balanced moral ground without former pm Chuan's participation.

notably, he has been 'mum' for quite a while.

possibly owning to apisit's inability to govern party members and

stay clean in terms of fraudulent practices so rampantly believed

that some party members have been asking for 50% of the total

project cost as tea money.... even before a proposal is approved....

which far exceeds the exile former pm tuksin's demand of 30%

prepaid tea money on any and all govt approved projects, regardless

of cost or overrun....

chinese biz in town are throwing their arms in air in protest....

if anyone asks me....

let thai people rise up and take control....

drag everyone of those in govt both current and past dignitaries into court of law

and let the court decides each and everyone of their fates....

if found guilty, prison terms and confiscation of any and all assets, hard and liquid,

in and out of thailand.... plus maximum fines....

i can almost guarantee that the next batch of govt officials ranging from top to bottom

wouldn't be so casual about bribery and such....

i also have successful historical facts to back me up too....

recalling hongkon several decades ago, she was the pit of illegal activities from very top down....

also examining china before people revolution led by mao, which was also filled with fraud and corruption....

but in china, corrupted court officials were dragged out to the center of town and beheaded there....

now i do not personally encourage such extreme as having to behead someone....

but i think long prison sentences plus confiscation of any and all corrupted money and materials in addition to heavy fines.... would suffice....

goshshhhshsh.... for a while i thought i was back at a sidebar dictating my terms and conditions for release ....

Edited June 11, 2011 by vont

[geriatrickid]

Reminds me of the scene from Titanic, where the Captain is defiant as his ship sings.

Cue Celine Dion.

[whybother]

Abhisit Vejjajiva's well-known eloquence can sometimes make it hard to tell if he's being defiant or simply stating the obvious. That was the case yesterday

Maybe they should have made the headline

Abhisit Stating the Obvious

instead of

Abhisit Stays Defiant

Edited June 11, 2011 by whybother

[RickBradford]

Cue Celine Dion.

Oh please don't.

[animatic]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

Edited June 11, 2011 by animatic

[geriatrickid]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

Got to start somewhere.

Perhaps time for a song that gives guidance on this matter;

Hi ho Hi Ho

It ain't no trick

To get rich quick ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Edited June 11, 2011 by geriatrickid

[virtualtraveller]

Go back a couple of years and study the deals and allied alliances before the election that brought Netanyahu back to power in Israel.

[animatic]

Go back a couple of years and study the deals and allied alliances before the election that brought Netanyahu back to power in Israel.

Or just last year to UK and Oz.

[vont]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

my friend animatic;

today, a weekend, and i am in thailand....

honestly speaking, i know of at least more than 3 thai nationals above and beyond 12 around myself at this very moment,

who are not corrupted by money, position, power or fame....

you can safely add these 5 thai ladies and a thai gentleman born and bred on thai soil,

in and amongst rubber plantations to your list of 3.... ok?

however, i do agree with you though, with the current thai leaders' mentality,

it does not look good, many amongst thai high ranking officials nowadays would gladly sell thailand

including their own siblings, wives and children out, if the price is right, just to enrich themselves and their political power and positions....

the final question remains unanswered, whether one oughts to use the chinese sung dynasty axe or later.... to carry out justice--thai style....

[Thai at Heart]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

Sssshhhhhhh.

Don't give anyone any bright ideas.

[brianb1944]

i wonder how apisit and the rest of the democrats could remain in the center of the road and in somewhat a more balanced moral ground without former pm Chuan's participation.

notably, he has been 'mum' for quite a while.

possibly owning to apisit's inability to govern party members and

stay clean in terms of fraudulent practices so rampantly believed

that some party members have been asking for 50% of the total

project cost as tea money.... even before a proposal is approved....

which far exceeds the exile former pm tuksin's demand of 30%

prepaid tea money on any and all govt approved projects, regardless

of cost or overrun....

chinese biz in town are throwing their arms in air in protest....

if anyone asks me....

let thai people rise up and take control....

drag everyone of those in govt both current and past dignitaries into court of law

and let the court decides each and everyone of their fates....

if found guilty, prison terms and confiscation of any and all assets, hard and liquid,

in and out of thailand.... plus maximum fines....

i can almost guarantee that the next batch of govt officials ranging from top to bottom

wouldn't be so casual about bribery and such....

i also have successful historical facts to back me up too....

recalling hongkon several decades ago, she was the pit of illegal activities from very top down....

also examining china before people revolution led by mao, which was also filled with fraud and corruption....

but in china, corrupted court officials were dragged out to the center of town and beheaded there....

now i do not personally encourage such extreme as having to behead someone....

but i think long prison sentences plus confiscation of any and all corrupted money and materials in addition to heavy fines.... would suffice....

goshshhhshsh.... for a while i thought i was back at a sidebar dictating my terms and conditions for release ....

What a lot of totally unsupported drivel

[animatic]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

my friend animatic;

today, a weekend, and i am in thailand....

honestly speaking, i know of at least more than 3 thai nationals above and beyond 12 around myself at this very moment,

who are not corrupted by money, position, power or fame....

you can safely add these 5 thai ladies and a thai gentleman born and bred on thai soil,

in and amongst rubber plantations to your list of 3.... ok?

however, i do agree with you though, with the current thai leaders' mentality,

it does not look good, many amongst thai high ranking officials nowadays would gladly sell thailand

including their own siblings, wives and children out, if the price is right, just to enrich themselves and their political power and positions....

the final question remains unanswered, whether one oughts to use the chinese sung dynasty axe or later.... to carry out justice--thai style....

I was responding to an absurd idea with absurdist comments.

The days of a new Long March are well behind us.

And the last thing Thailand needs is a Maoist 'Cultural Revolution'.... We know how that turned out. 50 years on, and the brain drain, culture drain, and morals drain of that period is still haunting the land.

Certainly there are reasonably honest Thais, and many who try to avoid corrupt situations, but those situations are endemic to the country as a culture and hard not to be apart of, from schools to housing to transport etc, most ALL Thais have to part take to get on with things, Accepting your child be under-educated rather than lose face, or because the teachers can't lose face, or won't let you lose face, by flunking your child is one aspect of corruption from cradle to grave.

No there would certainly more than 12 left....

I originally said three but edited it...

there must be a few more at least out there.

Thai At Heart got my ironic drift.

Edited June 11, 2011 by animatic

[caribbeanman]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

chinese government and police are even more corrupt than Thais', so that's not an option.

Edited June 11, 2011 by caribbeanman

[vont]

AH YES! There's a solution.

Let's just turn Thailand into a province of China with one monolithic dictatorial government, and no one can say a word against it. And behead all who are even slightly corrupt... which should leave around 3 people over age 12 left to swing the axe.

chinese government and police are even more corrupt than Thais', so that's not an option.

i dislike challenging you....

just how often have you had traveled to any city in china, buster?

garbage in and even more garbage out.... i'm afraid....

[rubl]

My copy of the OCD says

defiance: 1. open disobedience, bold resistance. 2.a challenge to fight or maintain a cause, assertion, etc.

defiant: 1. showing defiance. 2. openly disobedient

Somehow I think the OP shows a certain bias

[vont]

i wonder how apisit and the rest of the democrats could remain in the center of the road and in somewhat a more balanced moral ground without former pm Chuan's participation.

notably, he has been 'mum' for quite a while.

possibly owning to apisit's inability to govern party members and

stay clean in terms of fraudulent practices so rampantly believed

that some party members have been asking for 50% of the total

project cost as tea money.... even before a proposal is approved....

which far exceeds the exile former pm tuksin's demand of 30%

prepaid tea money on any and all govt approved projects, regardless

of cost or overrun....

chinese biz in town are throwing their arms in air in protest....

if anyone asks me....

let thai people rise up and take control....

drag everyone of those in govt both current and past dignitaries into court of law

and let the court decides each and everyone of their fates....

if found guilty, prison terms and confiscation of any and all assets, hard and liquid,

in and out of thailand.... plus maximum fines....

i can almost guarantee that the next batch of govt officials ranging from top to bottom

wouldn't be so casual about bribery and such....

i also have successful historical facts to back me up too....

recalling hongkon several decades ago, she was the pit of illegal activities from very top down....

also examining china before people revolution led by mao, which was also filled with fraud and corruption....

but in china, corrupted court officials were dragged out to the center of town and beheaded there....

now i do not personally encourage such extreme as having to behead someone....

but i think long prison sentences plus confiscation of any and all corrupted money and materials in addition to heavy fines.... would suffice....

goshshhhshsh.... for a while i thought i was back at a sidebar dictating my terms and conditions for release ....

What a lot of totally unsupported drivel

for a street dweller, it is very difficult to even imagine, much less comprehend the beauty of a penthouse....

just because you yourself can not see the penthouse nor ever experience penthouse living....

surely, it does not necessarily mean that it is not there.... does it....?

sorry, just could not come up with any better analogy at the moment....

[Ricardo]

If a leaf falls from a potted-plant, in a penthouse in the clouds, but nobody is there to hear it because it's a speculative-purchase which has never been lived-in, does it still make a sound or need to be swept-up ?

[MaiChai]

Everyone crystal ball gazing, trying to predict what will happen.

I have been here long enough to know: expect the unexpected. I suspect Abhisit thinks the same.

Pua Thai continues with their brain washing tactics: keep telling everyone they will win by a landslide and it will happen.

Just because all the noisy voters will vote Pua Thai doesnt mean many quieter voters will vote for someone else?

[bungalownights]

Some would say Abhisit is defiant, others would say he is stubborn as a mule.

[Ricardo]

Some would say Abhisit is defiant, others would say he is stubborn as a mule.

Or perhaps he is merely determined ?

[whybother]

Everyone crystal ball gazing, trying to predict what will happen.

I have been here long enough to know: expect the unexpected. I suspect Abhisit thinks the same.

Pua Thai continues with their brain washing tactics: keep telling everyone they will win by a landslide and it will happen.

Just because all the noisy voters will vote Pua Thai doesnt mean many quieter voters will vote for someone else?

By telling everyone they will win by a landslide, it's easier to sell the "we was robbed" line when they don't get the result they want.

At the moment, most of the polls put PTP slightly in the lead, but definitely not enough for a majority.

By continuously pushing the "landslide" line, when they don't get a majority, their supporters will be riled. When they can't form a coalition government, their supporters will be back on the streets. That's already been promised by one of the Red Shirt leader come PTP candidate.

[Insight]

Everyone crystal ball gazing, trying to predict what will happen.

I have been here long enough to know: expect the unexpected. I suspect Abhisit thinks the same.

Pua Thai continues with their brain washing tactics: keep telling everyone they will win by a landslide and it will happen.

Just because all the noisy voters will vote Pua Thai doesnt mean many quieter voters will vote for someone else?

By telling everyone they will win by a landslide, it's easier to sell the "we was robbed" line when they don't get the result they want.

At the moment, most of the polls put PTP slightly in the lead, but definitely not enough for a majority.

By continuously pushing the "landslide" line, when they don't get a majority, their supporters will be riled. When they can't form a coalition government, their supporters will be back on the streets. That's already been promised by one of the Red Shirt leader come PTP candidate.

Very well observed. I doubt things will change much in terms of election results compared to past elections, regardless of hype. It'll all come down to coalition politics (again).

Although either a Phua Thai or Democrat-led coalition won't stop the opposing protests, a Phua Thai-led coalition is, by far, the worst outcome IMO. The election result won't lead to any uprising, but any attempts to exonerate Thaksin certainly will.