In The End, Only One Poll Will Matter; Thai Opinion

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

In the end, only one poll will matter

By Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation

There are 20 days left before the July 3 election, and the results of various opinion polls have been released.

These results may have a psychological impact on eligible voters. Supporters of the political party leading the polls may well feel assured that their favourite party has a high likelihood of winning without their votes. On the other side of the coin, supporters of the party faring less well in the polls may see the need to come out in full force to vote for their favourite party.

As a result, the actual election outcome is likely to be different from that in the opinion surveys.

Political parties can use the poll results to improve their campaigning by focusing more on areas where the surveys say they are not faring well.

Poll results could influence not only eligible voters but also post-election politics.

Recent polls by many university research centres have shown that the Pheu Thai Party is leading the Democrat Party and will win the election. However, one-third to half of the respondents said they remained undecided which party they would vote for. Pheu Thai said its surveys showed the party would win more than half of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives - as many as 270.

To critics, Pheu Thai is trying to exaggerate its popularity for political reasons. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the leader of the Democrat Party, said he suspected that Pheu Thai might come up with accusations that the election is unfair if it fails to win as many House seats as it claims. Abhisit noted that none of the major pollsters such as Dusit, Abac and Nida had predicted Pheu Thai would win a majority of the Lower House.

He expressed doubt that Pheu Thai was confident of winning a House majority in the election (more than 250 seats). "If they are so confident about that, why do they keep demanding the right to form the government?" Abhisit asked. "If you win, say, 270 seats or more, you don't even have to ask. Who will be able to deny you the right?"

Another question is whether all the poll respondents told the truth when they said they were "still undecided" for which party they would vote. Many poll respondents, particularly in Bangkok, tend not to disclose their favourite political party. The latest survey by Bangkok University showed as many as 44 per cent of the respondents saying they "remained undecided".

Sunisa Prawichai, the director of Bangkok University's research centre, told satellite-based TV Spring News that she found Pheu Thai supporters often named their favourite party without hesitation while many Democrat supporters did not identify their favourite party when asked.

Whether the polls are accurate or misleading, the result will be known on election day, when eligible voters cast their ballots and decide which political party they want to have the mandate to run the country.

-- The Nation 2011-06-14

[MILT]

This is what I have been picking up on when I read these results. There is no clear landslide for either party. I think it will be close. No matter what the results are Thailand will still be in the Sh*t storm long after July 3rd.

[gregb]

If you ask my wife who she supports in the election, she will tell you she is undecided. What she means by that though, is that she hasn't decided which of the parties that are not Thaksin supporters she will vote for. It does not mean the PT has any chance of getting her vote. Most of her friends say and mean the same thing. I suspect that is true with many people. PT supporters seem to be very 1 dimensional with their support for the square faced demagogue and his defacto party. They don't need to be undecided.

While people who are anti Thaksin, are much more discriminating, and tend to wait and analyze what is out there to make the best of a bunch of bad choices. Not considering that there may be a huge bias against Thaksin in that undecided crowd is wilfully neglecting something which at least anecdotally seems to be the case.