Abhisit Expects To Form Coalition With Bhum Jai Thai Party

[webfact]

Abhisit Expects to Form Coalition with Bhumjaithai Party

Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is expecting to form the coalition government with the Bhumjaithai Party after the election.

During an interview with a press agency, acting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva refused to accept a pledge proposed by the Pheu Thai Party to give the party who wins the most MP seats in the upcoming election the preference to form the government.

He questioned Pheu Thai Party's confidence in forming a coalition, especially after it has severed ties with the Bhumjaithai Party.

On the other hand, Abhisit said that if the Democrat Party joined hands with the Bhumjaithai Party, the two would have the majority to form the government.

He also suggested the Chart Thai Pattana Party as another possible coalition member.

When asked if he has any concern that the Chart Thai Pattana Party may form an alliance with Pheu Thai Party, Abhisit said the issue of forming a coalition has not yet been brought up, as other issues were discussed at the weekly Cabinet meeting.

At any rate, the caretaker premier said the Democrat Party has a good relationship with the Chart Thai Pattana Party, and the two could still work together in the future.

-- Tan Network 2011-06-22

[webfact]

ABAC Poll finds Pheu Thai to win 55 party-list seats, Democrats 49, Bhum Jai Thai 8 but says 8 million voters still undecided /TAN_Network

[webfact]

10 million undecided voters crucial to tip outcome: Abac Poll

By The Nation

Some 10 million voters, accounting for 30 per cent of those planned to cast ballots, remain undecided for the July 3 vote, Abac Poll said in a survey released on Wednesday.

The nationwide survey was conducted on a sample group of 5,349 respondents in 28 selected provinces to gauge the sentiment on party-list candidates between June 1 and June 21.

One of the survey's conclusions drawn is some 36 million electorates, accounting for 76 per cent of eligible voters, plan to cast ballots. Given a seven per cent chance for error, the voter turnout is projected to range from 69 per cent to 83 per cent.

About 25 million, or 70 per cent, said they already made up their mind on which party to vote for.

Based on the projection of proportionate votes to be cast, Pheu Thai is in the lead to win 46 to 63 of 125 House seats up for grabs. The Democrat Party is projected to win 40 to 58 seats. Bhum Jai Thai could win up to 17 seats. Chat Pattana Puea Pandin has the potential to secure up to 13 seats. Other parties have the combined potential to grab up to 18 seats.

If the vote is to take place today instead of election day, Pheu Thai might win 55 seats, followed by the Democrats with 49 seats. Bhum Jai Thai will have eight seats and Chat Pattana Puea Pnadin is to secure four seats.

-- The Nation 2011-06-22

[whybother]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

[jdinasia]

Another poll? Aren't we into the "no polls published" phase of the campaign season yet? The vast gaps in the numbers in this poll suggest everything is still open.

I think a lot will be determined by how well BJT does in places like Korat ... and how some of the tiny parties do in the South. It will be a 'squeaker' for sure .. and not a route like some people seem to be thinking.

[whybother]

Another poll? Aren't we into the "no polls published" phase of the campaign season yet? The vast gaps in the numbers in this poll suggest everything is still open.

I think a lot will be determined by how well BJT does in places like Korat ... and how some of the tiny parties do in the South. It will be a 'squeaker' for sure .. and not a route like some people seem to be thinking.

"Aren't we into the "no polls published" phase of the campaign season yet?"

7 days before ... so the end of this week.

Expect a heap of polls (probably all conflicting) coming out over the next couple of days.

[animatic]

10 million is a significant block of the silent majority up for grabs.

If the BJT and Dems form a solid alliance publicly stated

that 'They combine their votes into one block, period, end of story',

then that would analogous to TRT' and all it's factions joined

to create an appearance of One Large Winning Party...

No more honest or dishonest than TRT's ploy in 2005.

They can stand up and say we have 60% right here,

and demand a MP vote on their block on Day One post election.

This is how Thaksin did it before with TRT.

Edited June 22, 2011 by animatic

[jfchandler]

Maybe someone can answer a simple Thai election question here...

We live in BKK, but my wife's tabien baan is for Khon Kaen...

Apparently, I found out today in conversation, she's never before voted in her entire life, even though she has some political awareness and preferences...

Question is: Can she somehow vote in BKK or vote absentee for the upcoming election, without traveling back to KK, and if so, how?

[whybother]

Maybe someone can answer a simple Thai election question here...

We live in BKK, but my wife's tabien baan is for Khon Kaen...

Apparently, I found out today in conversation, she's never before voted in her entire life, even though she has some political awareness and preferences...

Question is: Can she somehow vote in BKK or vote absentee for the upcoming election, without traveling back to KK, and if so, how?

Too late. She needed to register for pre-voting a couple of weeks ago. Pre-poll voting is this weekend.

Edited June 22, 2011 by whybother

[jfchandler]

Maybe someone can answer a simple Thai election question here...

We live in BKK, but my wife's tabien baan is for Khon Kaen...

Apparently, I found out today in conversation, she's never before voted in her entire life, even though she has some political awareness and preferences...

Question is: Can she somehow vote in BKK or vote absentee for the upcoming election, without traveling back to KK, and if so, how?

Too late. She needed to register for pre-voting a couple of weeks ago. Pre-poll voting is this weekend.

Thanks Why... She mentioned something about thinking it was already too late for her... But was vague on the details...

So next time, I'll have to get on her case sooner.... unless we end up moving up to KK someday... :jap:

[OzMick]

Maybe someone can answer a simple Thai election question here...

We live in BKK, but my wife's tabien baan is for Khon Kaen...

Apparently, I found out today in conversation, she's never before voted in her entire life, even though she has some political awareness and preferences...

Question is: Can she somehow vote in BKK or vote absentee for the upcoming election, without traveling back to KK, and if so, how?

She can register for a postal/absentee vote but needs a current ID card and a photocopy (I think) or original of the house book where she is registered. If it's anything like the procedure for an absentee vote in oz, you will get a list of the candidates names but no indication of affiliation.

Edited June 22, 2011 by OzMick

[gymboy33]

Another poll? Aren't we into the "no polls published" phase of the campaign season yet? The vast gaps in the numbers in this poll suggest everything is still open.

I think a lot will be determined by how well BJT does in places like Korat ... and how some of the tiny parties do in the South. It will be a 'squeaker' for sure .. and not a route like some people seem to be thinking.

"Aren't we into the "no polls published" phase of the campaign season yet?"

7 days before ... so the end of this week.

Expect a heap of polls (probably all conflicting) coming out over the next couple of days.

there hasnt been any conflicting polls recently, why will they probaly be conflicting over the next couple of days?

[whybother]

there hasnt been any conflicting polls recently, why will they probaly be conflicting over the next couple of days?

Most polls have had 30-50% undecided. One poll had 2% undecided. I call that conflicting.

[Jingthing]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

They'll just recycle the same old excuses. Street actions expected, yes?

[whybother]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

They'll just recycle the same old excuses. Street actions expected, yes?

They've already been promised if PTP doesn't get into government.

[animatic]

Maybe someone can answer a simple Thai election question here...

We live in BKK, but my wife's tabien baan is for Khon Kaen...

Apparently, I found out today in conversation, she's never before voted in her entire life, even though she has some political awareness and preferences...

Question is: Can she somehow vote in BKK or vote absentee for the upcoming election, without traveling back to KK, and if so, how?

Too late. She needed to register for pre-voting a couple of weeks ago. Pre-poll voting is this weekend.

Thanks Why... She mentioned something about thinking it was already too late for her... But was vague on the details...

So next time, I'll have to get on her case sooner.... unless we end up moving up to KK someday... :jap:

If she goes to Kohn Kaen on voting day she can vote there.

[animatic]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

They'll just recycle the same old excuses. Street actions expected, yes?

They've already been promised if PTP doesn't get into government.

Promised?

More like guaranteed warrantee service on a lifetime contract.

But not in Thailand, it's farmed out to India, where they actually will do the work.

Edited June 22, 2011 by animatic

[samurai]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

IF ...

Cannot be worse than the "civil war" that will start (as predicted by some) after the PT election victory.

[RickBradford]

Maybe someone can answer a simple Thai election question here...

We live in BKK, but my wife's tabien baan is for Khon Kaen...

Apparently, I found out today in conversation, she's never before voted in her entire life, even though she has some political awareness and preferences...

Question is: Can she somehow vote in BKK or vote absentee for the upcoming election, without traveling back to KK, and if so, how?

Too late. She needed to register for pre-voting a couple of weeks ago. Pre-poll voting is this weekend.

Thanks Why... She mentioned something about thinking it was already too late for her... But was vague on the details...

So next time, I'll have to get on her case sooner.... unless we end up moving up to KK someday... :jap:

If she goes to Kohn Kaen on voting day she can vote there.

As long as her name is on the electoral roll, yes.

The official guidance document says that everyone should check that their name is on the roll 20 days before the election.

[jfchandler]

Thanks much for the additional voting advice re my wife...

I had no clue how the Thai version of absentee voting works here... not being an eligible voter myself!

But I will happily accept any election season bribes that are being offered on her behalf....

[gymboy33]

there hasnt been any conflicting polls recently, why will they probaly be conflicting over the next couple of days?

Most polls have had 30-50% undecided. One poll had 2% undecided. I call that conflicting.

there was a reason that poll was only 2%

which bangkok pundit wrote about

which i posted when you raised this point before on another there pp still leading i think

[letitbe]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

IF ...

Cannot be worse than the "civil war" that will start (as predicted by some) after the PT election victory.

whichever their will be serious trouble. If Taksin does not win and dems can form an alliance the only hope is that this time round the gentle way is abandoned andI think most thais would welcome firm action and a stop to Taksins endless disruption to normality. If Taksins party wins and succeeds in bringing him back then yes I can see its more than possible civil war will break out. I refuse to call it PT its simply Taksins party with a large number of paid for followers. The few if any good people at top of his Party will be very disappointed in the end and mass of sheep and dupes poor who think he is their saviour will not see any improvement over a few hundred baht paid to them for their loyalty and perhaps a broken down useless Pc which will last at most 6 months. thats if they ever see the PC.

[animatic]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

IF ...

Cannot be worse than the "civil war" that will start (as predicted by some) after the PT election victory.

whichever their will be serious trouble. If Taksin does not win and dems can form an alliance the only hope is that this time round the gentle way is abandoned andI think most thais would welcome firm action and a stop to Taksins endless disruption to normality. If Taksins party wins and succeeds in bringing him back then yes I can see its more than possible civil war will break out. I refuse to call it PT its simply Taksins party with a large number of paid for followers. The few if any good people at top of his Party will be very disappointed in the end and mass of sheep and dupes poor who think he is their saviour will not see any improvement over a few hundred baht paid to them for their loyalty and perhaps a broken down useless Pc which will last at most 6 months. thats if they ever see the PC.

The civil will not start till after a very sad national occurrence.

Something that most ALL Thai people hope will be very far into the future. Prior to that sad day, it will be violently setting the stage, and joisting for position, for that time in the future. Nothing can drastically change at this time, just get very noisy.

Apart from that ' the Gentile way" has long gone out the window, or did you miss the last two Songkrans before this years temporary truce?

This is two Han Chinese Clans fighting to control a gate way to China for the next 100 years, and using the Thai populace as pawns in their power plays...

Edited June 22, 2011 by animatic

[animatic]

Thanks much for the additional voting advice re my wife...

I had no clue how the Thai version of absentee voting works here... not being an eligible voter myself!

But I will happily accept any election season bribes that are being offered on her behalf....

If she ever registered to vote, then she is likely OK, but she should go call the Ampur and see if she is on the voting roles.

I vaguely remember if you didn't vote last time they drop you for next time... but not sure.

What I find interesting is

this election bringing out people who haven't voted in years... seems the things at stake resonate with more than the usual activist voters.

[letitbe]

If the Democrats are able to form a coalition government with their current coalition partners (or most of), what excuses are the red shirts going to come up with?

IF ...

Cannot be worse than the "civil war" that will start (as predicted by some) after the PT election victory.

whichever their will be serious trouble. If Taksin does not win and dems can form an alliance the only hope is that this time round the gentle way is abandoned andI think most thais would welcome firm action and a stop to Taksins endless disruption to normality. If Taksins party wins and succeeds in bringing him back then yes I can see its more than possible civil war will break out. I refuse to call it PT its simply Taksins party with a large number of paid for followers. The few if any good people at top of his Party will be very disappointed in the end and mass of sheep and dupes poor who think he is their saviour will not see any improvement over a few hundred baht paid to them for their loyalty and perhaps a broken down useless Pc which will last at most 6 months. thats if they ever see the PC.

The civil will not start till after a very sad national occurrence.

Something that most ALL Thai people hope will be very far into the future. Prior to that sad day, it will be violently setting the stage, and joisting for position, for that time in the future. Nothing can drastically change at this time, just get very noisy.

Apart from that ' the Gentile way" has long gone out the window, or did you miss the last two Songkrans before this years temporary truce?

This is two Han Chinese Clans fighting to control a gate way to China for the next 100 years, and using the Thai populace as pawns in their power plays...

your probably right but some of us who have been here 15 years or more live in hope that things can return to am ore peaceful time which existed at least most of time ive been here. I dont think the very sad occurrence will have a lot of effect but im in a great minority on that one. Whatever it seems wise to at least get what we can out of Thailand as far as investments are concerned which is a plan i have been suing since last years red thugs attempts. I and my family will keep our home or should i correctly say my wifes house the land business's and shares are being sold as and when it can sensibly be done and moneys transferred via various channels to safer havens and I guess to benefit of places like Indonesia Vietnam singapore and rest. I am still hopeful that some form of sanity could prevail here amongst Thais but pawns (sheep to slaughter) will almost certainly blindly follow their great saviour and reap the rewards. The writing definitely appears to be on the wall sadly for Thailand and its people.

[virtualtraveller]

It's all about spinning numbers, the PTP supporters have been pointing to polls in their favour as if it's a foregone conclusion and any other result would be from fishy business, or backroom deals, and the UDD are unlikely accept defeat in any form.

But PTP have no one to blame but themselves! They've closed the door on BJT already (which was a noble thing to do considering the background between the two), so that you can consider BJT/Dems to be an alliance. If the latter collectively get more MPs than PTP perhaps they can claim the right to form the govt first, but it doesn't exclude CTP from ignoring them in favour of PTP. BJT are keeping their options open because they can't afford to be in the opposition, and Dems are keeping their distance because they can't afford for voters to associate them with a dodgy party.

In the final week, I bet someone like the PAD are going to wade in and threaten instability and street action if/when a PTP govt returns Thaksin, this could well sway the undecided.

Edited June 23, 2011 by virtualtraveller

[jfchandler]

What I find interesting is this election bringing out people who haven't voted in years... seems the things at stake resonate with more than the usual activist voters.

Well, I'm not sure my wife's situation bears that out....

I know she has definite views not in sympathy with the Red movement, even though she is from Khon Kaen originally...

But this is the first national election, I think, since we've been together. So when I asked her about voting, I was surprised to learn she'd never ever voted before, and hadn't made any plans to vote in this election...

So I was pressing her that she ought to do something about it... But her response was to talk about being busy at work, and not really interested to pursue it...

There's an old saying that "People get the governments that they deserve." Unfortunately in Thailand, that seems exceptionally true.