Rift Erupts In Thailand's Red-Shirt Movement

[letitbe]

Civil war is a real possibility. It came close at the run up to and breaking of the protests ; sertain army units not obeying orders and giving up weapons and such.

Now this gov is incharge army positions will slowly start to change; like before the coup (the ultimate reason for the coup); the risk of thaksin coming back too soon with only half or so of military on side is serious. He'll never b be able to usurp all but will likely call the bluff at some point. Depends on how far the rot is allowed to go also. Millitary coup may seem unlikely because it would b unpopular but end of the day coup and putting down red masses lightly armed would be much easier than facing all out civil war between factions with in the military itself. Could b the death of one man at the top of either ying or yang might seal Thailand path for the next 5-10 years.

I agree with all those who c thaksin as a musolini type dangerous megalomaniac. Dark days ahead for all Thailand I fear. Maybe thaksin wil return and rule a truly terrible reign until there isanother revolution after the economy is wrecked inflation through the roof and mass unemployment.

Many possible paths.

I'm selling my house in town and building a little place in the country for holidays but moving most money and family back to England.

Chock dee

very wise but i dont think you need to move just yet just be prepared unless you where thinking of moving anyway. You do know in most parts houses fall in value a lot so ive decided not to sell our home and it does not seem logical to build another one in country. Why not just rent one until we all see how it pans out. I am in process of selling all our assets which we can but some cant be sold since they are in our 2 children's names and until they both reach 20 cant be sold under thai law. now theirs a thought but not worth enough for the great brother to have law changed on that one. Other in land be at all easy it never is but well try. good luck

[Crushdepth]

My point, friends, is this. First, no, I am not a stupid uneducated denizen of Isaan. I can spell simple English.

Second, Thaksin is not the end all and be all of corruption. It exists everywhere. Please don't try to tell me that the former gov't and cronies weren't corrupt.

Third, a military coup is not the way to change leadership.

Fourth, being a "dumb" and "uneducated" country girl from Isaan, my wife has a better handle on English than I have seen on many forums that are in English, including this one. So, intelligence and education must be relative.

Fifth, if Thailand is a democracy then the will of the people should be followed. Yingluck was elected by the majority of Thais, most outside the "well off" and "educated" and "elitist" areas of the country. The majority of Thais favored her over the status quo.

Be that stupid, uneducated, or whatever, unless a government propped up by the military is what everyone wants then I would think that this would be a moot point.

Given Thaksin was only the care-taker PM at the time of the coup, and there were elections about 12 months after it, the coup wasn't so much designed to change the leadership, as to set a few more ground rules so that the leader couldn't subvert the checks and balances as Thaksin was doing.

Yingluck wasn't elected by the majority of Thais, but her party did get a majority of seats, which gives her the right to form government.

I'm glad you think that the south is "well off", "educated" and "elitist", because the PTP failed to get a single seat south of Bangkok.

The south is another kettle of fish altogether. We both know it.

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand".

[DumFarang]

My point, friends, is this. First, no, I am not a stupid uneducated denizen of Isaan. I can spell simple English.

Second, Thaksin is not the end all and be all of corruption. It exists everywhere. Please don't try to tell me that the former gov't and cronies weren't corrupt.

Third, a military coup is not the way to change leadership.

Fourth, being a "dumb" and "uneducated" country girl from Isaan, my wife has a better handle on English than I have seen on many forums that are in English, including this one. So, intelligence and education must be relative.

Fifth, if Thailand is a democracy then the will of the people should be followed. Yingluck was elected by the majority of Thais, most outside the "well off" and "educated" and "elitist" areas of the country. The majority of Thais favored her over the status quo.

Be that stupid, uneducated, or whatever, unless a government propped up by the military is what everyone wants then I would think that this would be a moot point.

Given Thaksin was only the care-taker PM at the time of the coup, and there were elections about 12 months after it, the coup wasn't so much designed to change the leadership, as to set a few more ground rules so that the leader couldn't subvert the checks and balances as Thaksin was doing.

Yingluck wasn't elected by the majority of Thais, but her party did get a majority of seats, which gives her the right to form government.

I'm glad you think that the south is "well off", "educated" and "elitist", because the PTP failed to get a single seat south of Bangkok.

The south is another kettle of fish altogether. We both know it.

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand".

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

[whybother]

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand". <INSERT SARCASM SMILEY HERE>

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

Correction made to Crushdepth's post.

[jdinasia]

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand". <INSERT SARCASM SMILEY HERE>

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

Correction made to Crushdepth's post.

and "The South" isn't homogenous at all (the 4 restive provinces have many people that don't see themselves as "Thai" but the lower 16 is a different section of Thais that PTP still didn't pull a single seat in.

[animatic]

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand". <INSERT SARCASM SMILEY HERE>

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

Correction made to Crushdepth's post.

He put it in Quotes, as in they are not acting and converting to standardized 'Thai Ways' so they are not true Thais.

It is part or byproduct of the schooling beaten into them to create a National Identity.

And the arch nationalism we also see.

They hold the same attitude against the Hill tribes, who wish to maintain their tribal identity, and that doesn't conform 100% to 'The Thai Way' as institutionalized.

Crush was just commenting on the institutinalized racism against the cousins who live across borders,or within borders but maintain their on heritage also.

Yes the sarcasm smiley is long long over due. Roll Eyes will have to suffice.

Edited July 8, 2011 by animatic

[DumFarang]

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand". <INSERT SARCASM SMILEY HERE>

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

Correction made to Crushdepth's post.

and "The South" isn't homogenous at all (the 4 restive provinces have many people that don't see themselves as "Thai" but the lower 16 is a different section of Thais that PTP still didn't pull a single seat in.

You'll get no argument from me there about the south having different groups that aren't necessarily homogenous.

[DumFarang]

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand". <INSERT SARCASM SMILEY HERE>

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

Correction made to Crushdepth's post.

He put it in Quotes, as in they are not acting and converting to standardized 'Thai Ways' so they are not true Thais.

It is part or byproduct of the schooling beaten into them to create a National Identity.

And the arch nationalism we also see.

They hold the same attitude against the Hill tribes, who wish to maintain their tribal identity, and that doesn't conform 100% to 'The Thai Way' as institutionalized.

Crush was just commenting on the institutinalized racism against the cousins who live across borders,or within borders but maintain their on heritage also.

Yes the sarcasm smiley is long long over due. Roll Eyes will have to suffice.

Oh I get it. Thank you though. I just couldn't resist a little fun.

[animatic]

'Crushdepth' timestamp='1310103763' post='4543737'

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand". <INSERT SARCASM SMILEY HERE>

Hu? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

Correction made to Crushdepth's post.

and "The South" isn't homogenous at all (the 4 restive provinces have many people that don't see themselves as "Thai" but the lower 16 is a different section of Thais that PTP still didn't pull a single seat in.

You'll get no argument from me there about the south having different groups that aren't necessarily homogenous.

Except for voting Democrat

[jdinasia]

and "The South" isn't homogenous at all (the 4 restive provinces have many people that don't see themselves as "Thai" but the lower 16 is a different section of Thais that PTP still didn't pull a single seat in.

You'll get no argument from me there about the south having different groups that aren't necessarily homogenous.

Except for voting Democrat

Almost -- the Dems didn't get all 53 seats in the South this time.

[scorecard]

Each movement is but a layer of the onion supporting Thaksin.

All are expendable and infighting is not a problem for Thaksin who will of course arbitrate at end.

For the moment the red shirts are the used paper hankie, but no doubt will be kept in reserve as Thaksin's thug wing for when needed.

When the anti-Thaksin demonstrators eventually take to the streets, they will face the physical intimidation of the Red Shirt mobs. the violence will increase from then onwards. I feel a sneeze coming on .... Ahh-coup!

Do you really believe this will happen - jump on the "tedium" bandwaggon you may, but I think you will be disappointed when it doesn't happen as the situation is so different to before and not conducive to promoting a coup!!! Unless.......Yingluck attempts to bring her brother back when he's better of in a majority of people's minds being anywhere ELSE in the world rather than in Thailand as he raped it and ran for cover and people either knew this or are starting to appreciate it now.

I don't think this will happen either as Yingluck is surely more savvy than this and must know that it will back fire big time should she attempt to make this happen!!!

Some nice points, but I seriously doubt that she is the decision maker whether /when to start the process of the paymasters return.

Edited July 8, 2011 by scorecard

[scorecard]

A certain Philippine's politician - Benigno Simeon "Ninoy" Aquino, who on return from exile left the international airport in a box , maybe the same fate awaits a certain Thai politician who is currently in exile. Remember this is Thailand and it will sort it all out.

Are you suggesting Khun Yingluck will have her brother killed if he returns. Ninoy was killed by the government of Ferdinand Marcos. I can't imagine two more different situations than the ones that separate Dr. Thaksin and Mr. Aquino. Why don't you compare him to Nelson Mandella or Aung San Suu Kyi? There is no one in history like Dr. Taksin. He is an original. Will everyone stop comparing him to famous people we know even less about? Thank you in advance.

Thaskin is far from original. There is a book you all should read, (Thaskin obviously has read it) "OVERTHROW" Author Stephen Kinzer It is a very good read if you are interested in how things really work in a democarcy San Suu Kyi Nelson mandela Bit of a stretch don't you think?

You could say 'bit of a stretch', I'd call the comparison downright insulting to both Nelson Mandela and Aung San Suu Kyi.

[scorecard]

youll see Taksin will be back by year end thats for sure weather he allows little sis to stay for a while a little while might be debatable/ what planet are you from fairytale land

Well if I were from a certain "land" then it probably wouldn't be a planet also. It would just be a planet or a land, but that's basic English.

Anyway, Thaksin may come back anytime he likes and Yingluck may put as many charges up for review as she likes, but a PM can't just pardon everything. That's why she has to put a case up for review, otherwise she would just pardon him. He still has to be found innocent in case after case after case. Yeah, back in a year. Good luck with that Taxsin.

Or will she be pushed (forced) to railroad something through parliament which 'cancels' the conviction and cancels all 'in process' stuff?

My Thai lawyer colleague, who is familiar with all of this, says it would be highly unethical and unprecedented, but it is possible for her to do this.

Whether it would bring masses of people to try to interupt parliamentary proceeding is another question.

[Gandalf8353]

Given Thaksin was only the care-taker PM at the time of the coup, and there were elections about 12 months after it, the coup wasn't so much designed to change the leadership, as to set a few more ground rules so that the leader couldn't subvert the checks and balances as Thaksin was doing.

Yingluck wasn't elected by the majority of Thais, but her party did get a majority of seats, which gives her the right to form government.

I'm glad you think that the south is "well off", "educated" and "elitist", because the PTP failed to get a single seat south of Bangkok.

The south is another kettle of fish altogether. We both know it.

Yeah, they don't count so who cares just ignore them. They aren't part of "The People of Thailand".

Huh? The southerners aren't Thai in your eyes?

Breaking news: it turns out that math his been wrong for centuries and 2 + 2 = 3. Stay tuned as we will be debunking other assumptions people might make in the future.

The Southerners aren't Thai? Nice job of trying to extract something from my comment that I did not say. The south is another kettle of fish politically. Plain enough?

@ Crushdepth: There ain't no submariners down in hell! *LOL*

[mccw]

Civil war is a real possibility. It came close at the run up to and breaking of the protests ; sertain army units not obeying orders and giving up weapons and such.

Now this gov is incharge army positions will slowly start to change; like before the coup (the ultimate reason for the coup); the risk of thaksin coming back too soon with only half or so of military on side is serious. He'll never b be able to usurp all but will likely call the bluff at some point. Depends on how far the rot is allowed to go also. Millitary coup may seem unlikely because it would b unpopular but end of the day coup and putting down red masses lightly armed would be much easier than facing all out civil war between factions with in the military itself. Could b the death of one man at the top of either ying or yang might seal Thailand path for the next 5-10 years.

I agree with all those who c thaksin as a musolini type dangerous megalomaniac. Dark days ahead for all Thailand I fear. Maybe thaksin wil return and rule a truly terrible reign until there isanother revolution after the economy is wrecked inflation through the roof and mass unemployment.

Many possible paths.

I'm selling my house in town and building a little place in the country for holidays but moving most money and family back to England.

Chock dee

very wise but i dont think you need to move just yet just be prepared unless you where thinking of moving anyway. You do know in most parts houses fall in value a lot so ive decided not to sell our home and it does not seem logical to build another one in country. Why not just rent one until we all see how it pans out. I am in process of selling all our assets which we can but some cant be sold since they are in our 2 children's names and until they both reach 20 cant be sold under thai law. now theirs a thought but not worth enough for the great brother to have law changed on that one. Other in land be at all easy it never is but well try. good luck

Well I'm thinking I might be able to get a reasonable price for my house, especially since the BHT is about 30% stronger against the GBP than when I bought it; should work out to be a tidy profit.

I don't need a house in town like before for schools and things so building a little place in the village for nice peaceful holiday would b ideal. Only about 200,000bht should make a nice little place. The extended family are all around so b good for nippers learning thai, culture etc when we visit. All The rest I have I'll b investing in My Uk property business. Certainly no point paying to rent when so cheap to build and can maybe increase value long term rather than throw money away. (I already have the land; just cost 100,000bht; and location is beautiful, ideal; and I enjoy to create something which will belong to my family for ever and can add to it over time;;;; my house in cm of most value is a moo ban house and although it's nice I feel no overwhelming attachment to it).

I decided to make business in Uk and bring family over before because of schools and opportunities to make real decent amounts of money; but it's the election result that has decided my mind to take most of the money I have in Thailand out. Maybe 5 years from now will b a good time to get back in. But for now I see real danger for economy; never mind the prospects for civil war.

If ptp / thaksin actually don't break the economy, avoid civil war and just become a corrupt but reasonably successfully capitalist autocracy then I would still be better off investing in my business in Uk and can slways assess the situation later and get back in if I wish and it would b from a much stronger and less risky footing.