Even This National Disaster Is Being Used As A Political Weapon: Thai Opinion

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GUEST COLUMN

Even this national disaster is being used as a political weapon

Pavin Chachavalpongpun

Such a stupid bitch, she is!

As dim as a buffalo! She's a bimbo, a brainless Barbie doll. The first female prime minister - who has brought all this bad luck upon the country!

This is what Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is now called and labelled by her upper-class critics.

Much of Thailand has for some time been submerged under floodwaters. Bangkok itself is bracing for raging floods. Soon, the capital could be turned into a giant swimming pool. At the same time, Yingluck is about to drown in the political floods. This is no longer just an issue of natural disaster. It has become a ferocious political game.

The discourse of "stupidity" is being used prevalently and discursively. Yingluck has been made to represent the face of stupidity. The objective is clear - to discredit her and belittle her endeavours to find solutions to the problem.

In employing this discourse to assess Yingluck's performance, many seem to assume that Thai politics is the realm of the "intelligent". But if it is so, then why did past leaders also fail to solve the relentless problem of annual floods once and for all?

If Yingluck is to be judged, then perhaps the word "weak" would be better used to measure her leadership qualities. It is true that Yingluck has responded to the floods too slowly. While she works tirelessly to display her commitment, she fails to produce an integrated approach to ameliorate the grave situation. But it is very convenient, in times of crisis, to condemn others. All fingers are thus pointing at Yingluck's lack of crisis management skills.

But would it be fair to put all the blame on Yingluck? Should she alone be held responsible for the overpowering floods? Why was the Royal Irrigation Department keeping huge reserves of water in key dams at the beginning of the monsoon season and refused to release it despite the prolonged and massive rainfall we have seen during this monsoon season? Why did previous governments, which also experienced threatening floods, not put in place an effective flood management system?

Rumours, lies and false statements regarding the flood situation have been found on social networking sites. A picture of Yingluck, taken before the July election, which shows her taking a photo from her hand-phone on a helicopter, has been circulated on Facebook, with captions such as: "The nation is in crisis but this bitch is having a good time." Another picture of a Yingluck lookalike partying and drinking whisky from a bottle was also shared in cyberspace.

News of His Majesty the King mentioning that if the floods approach Bangkok, then let the water pass and do not block the Chitralada Palace, was found to be bogus. A photo of Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, taken in 2010, offering bags of commodities, was also intentionally released to mislead some Thais.

Could this be a part of a coordinated attack against Yingluck with the aim of destroying confidence in the government? Certainly, the opposition Democrat Party has been busy contesting the legitimacy of the Yingluck regime. Its leader, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, absurdly suggested the declaration of an emergency decree to fight the floods. Through this, the military would be granted full authority to operate in almost any way it likes - a decision that will not be accepted by the current government. Yet, Abhisit did not elaborate on whether the military could handle the problem better than the Yingluck government.

Abhisit has also worked closely with MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, the Bangkok governor, to compete, not cooperate, with the government. While many brand Yingluck as stupid, Sukhumbhand showed his superstitious faith in a Khmer ritual of "chasing water" in his search for a solution to the threat of floods in the city. He was intensely protective about his turf. At one point he declared, "Listen to me and only me. I will tell you when to evacuate."

Meanwhile, footage of the military going into affected areas to aid flood victims is impressive. But the military, like the Bangkok governor, has functioned almost independently from the government. There is clearly a sense of competition between the government and its rivals. Some of the fiercest critics of the government have called for Yingluck to resign. Yingluck's supporters interpret such competition and the pressure to remove her from power as part of a plot to stage a "water coup".

This competition, even during the height of the crisis, unveils a reality in Thailand: this is a deeply fragmented society in which political ideologies have overshadowed public responsibility and the urgency for national survival. It is no longer a country where its members are willing to forge ahead and leave their differences behind. Eliminating political adversaries, at the expense of a national catastrophe, is seemingly acceptable today.

The last crusade to save the capital from the floods also reflects a self-interested mentality among Bangkok residents. Bangkok, once again, is a symbol of contentious politics. Other provinces have long suffered from floodwaters that do not seem to go away. It is a case of a great disparity between the people residing in the rural and urban areas.

For now, those who are complaining the most, the loudest, are the Bangkok residents, who have over the past two months been so fortunate to have been kept dry. Yingluck has fallen into the trap of political disparity: she recognises the absolute necessity to rescue Bangkok to please her Bangkok critics, but earlier acted so slowly to prevent surrounding provinces from being inundated.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Follow him at www.facebook.com/pavinchachavalpongpun.

-- The Nation 2011-10-26

[cloudhopper]

Such a stupid bitch, she is!Yoda?

[zydeco]

Such a stupid bitch, she is!Yoda?

That cutline is right below the picture of the column's author, which usually indicates that "she" (the author) is the "stupid bitch". I won't argue with The Nation on this one.

[Credo]

She has my sympathy. There is nothing that can be done to stop the deluge that is befalling the country. Whatever could have been done, would never be done by politicians. Politicians simply lack the expertise and will to handle a natural disaster.

The true test will be the aftermath of the current disaster.

She is a lot stronger than I thought she was. The fact that she has continued to hang in there during these extremely stressful times is amazing.

[renaissanc]

Abhisit is fortunate that the floods didn't happen in his administration as the whole water management system has been neglected for many years, I'd say. Mind you, I doubt if he could have done much about it anyway in his 2 years as he had the Red Shirts to deal with continuously.

Talking of Red Shirts, we don't see the Red Shirt leaders or Pheu Thai MPs out helping the people. We've heard of Karun honing his mob skills by leading a group to break one or more dykes, and Jatuporn dividing up the North into Red Shirt villages. Otherwise, are all of them (incl. the Opposition MPs) at home counting their ill-gotten money and protecting their mansions?

When it's over, I'm sure they'll all reappear and continue to dam_n each other while patting themselves on the back. Robert Amsterdam will do his part by appearing with voluminous "evidence" that the Army and the Democrats were the Bad and Evil Guys while the Red Shirts were poor, innocent, rural victims of the "Evil Bangkok Elites".

[whybother]

If Yingluck is to be judged, then perhaps the word "weak" would be better used to measure her leadership qualities. It is true that Yingluck has responded to the floods too slowly. While she works tirelessly to display her commitment, she fails to produce an integrated approach to ameliorate the grave situation. But it is very convenient, in times of crisis, to condemn others. All fingers are thus pointing at Yingluck's lack of crisis management skills.

That's what most people have been saying. They aren't blaming her for the floods, just her (lack of) management.

Rumours, lies and false statements regarding the flood situation have been found on social networking sites.

That seems to have been coming from both sides of the divide.

Could this be a part of a coordinated attack against Yingluck with the aim of destroying confidence in the government? Certainly, the opposition Democrat Party has been busy contesting the legitimacy of the Yingluck regime. Its leader, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, absurdly suggested the declaration of an emergency decree to fight the floods. Through this, the military would be granted full authority to operate in almost any way it likes - a decision that will not be accepted by the current government. Yet, Abhisit did not elaborate on whether the military could handle the problem better than the Yingluck government.

She's the PM. The government are supposedly in charge of the flood relief efforts. It doesn't need to be a coordinated attack. People will attack them because the government should be doing better. The PTP seemed to be able to communicate OK before the elections. What's stopped them from doing it properly since then?

Why is declare a SOE absurd. It not only gives the military the ability to do things, it also gives the government more power to do what it needs to do.

Edited October 26, 2011 by whybother

[EvolvingApe]

She has my sympathy. There is nothing that can be done to stop the deluge that is befalling the country. Whatever could have been done, would never be done by politicians. Politicians simply lack the expertise and will to handle a natural disaster.

The true test will be the aftermath of the current disaster.

She is a lot stronger than I thought she was. The fact that she has continued to hang in there during these extremely stressful times is amazing.

Ahhh, the refreshing voice of reason! Thank you Credo.

[LadyHeather]

[jayboy]

She has my sympathy. There is nothing that can be done to stop the deluge that is befalling the country. Whatever could have been done, would never be done by politicians. Politicians simply lack the expertise and will to handle a natural disaster.

The true test will be the aftermath of the current disaster.

She is a lot stronger than I thought she was. The fact that she has continued to hang in there during these extremely stressful times is amazing.

I agree.Pavin's arguments are persuasive and reflect very poorly on Abhisit and Sukhumbhand.Many of the critical reports (eg the US navy issue) have been confirmed as outright lies.Clearly there has been lack of co-ordination but it's stretching credulity to believe the last government would have done better.Any reference made to the institutional problems in the Thai bureaucracy, poor long term planning or the forces of nature itself evoke screams of outrage.For some the only factor is Yingluck and (of course) her elder brother.These people believe that it is a failure not to put the army in control of the emergency (and much else) through a SOE, but it's completely unclear how this would improve co-ordination.The army should of course be fully involved and the relationship developed between Prayuth and Yingluck is of course ignored by the haters.

[OZEMADE]

I do remember Abhisit and Yingluck putting their heads together with their cronies trying to organise people to stop the current flooding. So with both sides of the Gov having a go, no one can complain. This deluge of rain and current flooding NO one was going to stop.

[zakk9]

He's right of course. This is the result of decades of failed politics, with friends, family and business connections being placed in important positions instead of those with knowledge and a determination to make a difference. The fact that major decisions and responsibility is placed in the hands of a prime minister with no expertise in the area and no political experience whatsoever, doesn't make the outcome any brighter.

It's years now since they started flooding Ayutthaya and nearby province routinely to "save" Bangkok. Unfortunately, that's like filling a balloon on a daily basis without control of the inflow. Sooner or later it will burst. That's very simple statistics. According to online responses from foreign climate experts, increased flooding is something Thailand has to live with. Sea temperatures are rising, which leads to more evaporation of sea water, and surprise, surprise... more rain. It's called global warming, in case anybody wonders.

[pauljones]

Is she getting sincere cooperation from the army/yellow camp or are the loving the disaster as a political gold-mine?

After all, they were quite happy and selfish enough to shut down 3 international airports.

[zakk9]

I do remember Abhisit and Yingluck putting their heads together with their cronies trying to organise people to stop the current flooding. So with both sides of the Gov having a go, no one can complain. This deluge of rain and current flooding NO one was going to stop.

Nobody can stop any flooding, only delay it. These amounts of water is something Thailand will have to learn to handle. The challenge will be to get the water through Central Thailand fast enough, so that the rivers don't overflow. A large emergency canal from Nakhon Sawan to the sea springs to my mind, but I'm not a hydrologist.

Be aware also that the rain in the north was "only" 50% more than an average year. That's not much more than a rather normal variation in weather terms. They could have handled it if they had planned for it, but they didn't.

[whybother]

Is she getting sincere cooperation from the army/yellow camp or are the loving the disaster as a political gold-mine?

After all, they were quite happy and selfish enough to shut down 3 international airports.

Everyone in the government are saying that the army are cooperating.

[jayboy]

Is she getting sincere cooperation from the army/yellow camp or are the loving the disaster as a political gold-mine?

After all, they were quite happy and selfish enough to shut down 3 international airports.

Not sure what you mean by the yellow camp in this context, but I'm pretty sure it's not relevant now.

But yes I think the government is getting good cooperation from the army, and I see no sign of senior officers like Prayuth - with known differences in politics - showing other than hard work and diligence.

Most Thais notwithstanding differences do see themselves as a family, pulling together when necessary.It's one of the country's great strengths.

Of course there will always be some as Pavin points out seeking to gain political advantage in a hateful way: it won't bring them electoral dividends however.And let's be clear it's the opposition's duty to oppose constructively.

[gamini]

Abhisit is fortunate that the floods didn't happen in his administration as the whole water management system has been neglected for many years, I'd say. Mind you, I doubt if he could have done much about it anyway in his 2 years as he had the Red Shirts to deal with continuously.

Talking of Red Shirts, we don't see the Red Shirt leaders or Pheu Thai MPs out helping the people. We've heard of Karun honing his mob skills by leading a group to break one or more dykes, and Jatuporn dividing up the North into Red Shirt villages. Otherwise, are all of them (incl. the Opposition MPs) at home counting their ill-gotten money and protecting their mansions?

When it's over, I'm sure they'll all reappear and continue to dam_n each other while patting themselves on the back. Robert Amsterdam will do his part by appearing with voluminous "evidence" that the Army and the Democrats were the Bad and Evil Guys while the Red Shirts were poor, innocent, rural victims of the "Evil Bangkok Elites".

good reply. But Abhisit would have got trhe Dutch and US to help. But PT were too arrogant and incompetent to admit the need of outside help.

[hellodolly]

She has my sympathy. There is nothing that can be done to stop the deluge that is befalling the country. Whatever could have been done, would never be done by politicians. Politicians simply lack the expertise and will to handle a natural disaster.

The true test will be the aftermath of the current disaster.

She is a lot stronger than I thought she was. The fact that she has continued to hang in there during these extremely stressful times is amazing.

I agree.Pavin's arguments are persuasive and reflect very poorly on Abhisit and Sukhumbhand.Many of the critical reports (eg the US navy issue) have been confirmed as outright lies.Clearly there has been lack of co-ordination but it's stretching credulity to believe the last government would have done better.Any reference made to the institutional problems in the Thai bureaucracy, poor long term planning or the forces of nature itself evoke screams of outrage.For some the only factor is Yingluck and (of course) her elder brother.These people believe that it is a failure not to put the army in control of the emergency (and much else) through a SOE, but it's completely unclear how this would improve co-ordination.The army should of course be fully involved and the relationship developed between Prayuth and Yingluck is of course ignored by the haters.

Can you show links to the proof of the US Navy issue being a lie.

If it is a lie why did they leave?

[whatsupdoc]

She has my sympathy. There is nothing that can be done to stop the deluge that is befalling the country. Whatever could have been done, would never be done by politicians. Politicians simply lack the expertise and will to handle a natural disaster.

The true test will be the aftermath of the current disaster.

She is a lot stronger than I thought she was. The fact that she has continued to hang in there during these extremely stressful times is amazing.

I am not so sure this is a natural disaster. It was known for quite some time that a lot of water would go to Bangkok. Chiang Mai was heavily flooded 4 weeks ago. A lot could have been done to prevent or at least lessen the flooding but apparently real action was only taken when it was too late.

So I would think that the current government should carry some of the blame.

[whybother]

Can you show links to the proof of the US Navy issue being a lie.

If it is a lie why did they leave?

The US ambassador said it's a lie. There's a video in the Daily News thread.

[pedro01]

What a load of nonsense.

You can see where the author is coming from with the divisive "This is what Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is now called and labelled by her upper-class critics."

This author is doing exactly what he accuses others of - using the issue to score political points and to further divide people into them & us.

Fortunately, the whole article is poorly executed.

[toenail]

I would say with all leaders of the world they rely on a "team" of experts. Can you imagine prime ministers and presidents being experts on finances, defence, education, social welfare...and even "flood control'? Yingluck unfortunately did not have experts to give her the correct advice. Experts around the world that are connected with water control would be able to predict this volume of water from up North would be heading towards Bangkok...and let's look at past history when similar floods had occurred in Bangkok. Yingluck can take part of the blame for not getting "experts" to look into the situation...and I wonder if she was too worried in filing the government positions with Thaksin supporters instead of worrying about the flooding which started back in late August up north at the time.

Edited October 26, 2011 by toenail

[Credo]

I've been through a few natural disasters, including an annual flood cycle, a few of which turned into major disasters. There is very, very little that can be done. There are no winners; only losers.

One little toe in one little village gets wet and any government at some level gets blamed for mismanagement. Dealing with flooding is like herding chicken--you can herd them anywhere they want to go. And that waters wants to go to the Gulf of Thailand.

Build all the dikes you want, sandbag everything you want, but in the end there's limited value. Nothing much to do with who is unfortunate enough to be in power when it happens.

[jonclark]

What a load of nonsense.

You can see where the author is coming from with the divisive "This is what Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is now called and labelled by her upper-class critics."

This author is doing exactly what he accuses others of - using the issue to score political points and to further divide people into them & us.

Fortunately, the whole article is poorly executed.

Correct, it's not just the upper classes being critical, many ordinary Thais are being as critical if not more, as they loose everything and have to endure on very limited resources. A poor article aimed as shifting the focus to the celestial elite.

[TexasRanger]

Talking of Red Shirts, we don't see the Red Shirt leaders or Pheu Thai MPs out helping the people. We've heard of Karun honing his mob skills by leading a group to break one or more dykes, and Jatuporn dividing up the North into Red Shirt villages.

The red shirts have been driving round our province and visiting all the villages collecting food and donations for the flood hit people in Bangkok.

[Ijustwannateach]

In Bangkok, a Thai friend of a friend of mine (neither are 'upper-class') who was a red-shirt supporter is now faced with very few options; he has little money and there is no where to get food or water for the 'emergency' that has 'suddenly' arisen. He was trusting what the government said back when everything was 'no problem'.

I'm sure he's not the only one. The way the government has handled communications and crisis management is certainly less than optimal- compared to what any government could have done at the same points in time- and has left a lot of people not a little high and dry. To suggest that simply because the flood was big, nothing could have been handled better- is lazy thinking. There is a LOT that deserves criticism, and is getting it, and not only from 'rich' types.

To give them more credit possibly than they are due, I wonder if they were forced into a position of 'planned incompetence'. In other words, were there so many powerful factions and competing interests on all sides of any decision, that if they had presented themselves as having had choices, it would have more or less started a bidding war or even a minor civil war over which gates should be open and when, for instance- it wouldn't be the first time that such a micromanaged detail led to political gridlock and bitter struggle here. Better, perhaps, to pretend they don't know what they are doing and have no options and let everyone be nervous, while accomplishing a secretly planned strategy- but then, public panic and loss of credibility will have to be part of your plan, too. That's as far a spin as I can put on it; anything else is 'simple incompetence'.

My signature is unusually apt these days.

[dru2]

Quite right. Such a predictable, self-righteous twit he is!

Yingluck is a member of the Sino-Thai upper class elite. Abhisit is a member of the Sino-Thai upper class elite. Pavin himself is a member of the Sino-Thai upper class elite.

No surprise in that - but absolutely no credibility, either.

You can see where the author is coming from with the divisive "This is what Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is now called and labelled by her upper-class critics."

This author is doing exactly what he accuses others of - using the issue to score political points and to further divide people into them & us.

Fortunately, the whole article is poorly executed.

[xthAi76s]

Well written and well reasoned piece. I'll be following him.

www.facebook.com/pavinchachavalpongpun

[jayboy]

In Bangkok, a Thai friend of a friend of mine (neither are 'upper-class') who was a red-shirt supporter is now faced with very few options; he has little money and there is no where to get food or water for the 'emergency' that has 'suddenly' arisen. He was trusting what the government said back when everything was 'no problem'.

I'm sure he's not the only one. The way the government has handled communications and crisis management is certainly less than optimal- compared to what any government could have done at the same points in time- and has left a lot of people not a little high and dry. To suggest that simply because the flood was big, nothing could have been handled better- is lazy thinking. There is a LOT that deserves criticism, and is getting it, and not only from 'rich' types.

To give them more credit possibly than they are due, I wonder if they were forced into a position of 'planned incompetence'. In other words, were there so many powerful factions and competing interests on all sides of any decision, that if they had presented themselves as having had choices, it would have more or less started a bidding war or even a minor civil war over which gates should be open and when, for instance- it wouldn't be the first time that such a micromanaged detail led to political gridlock and bitter struggle here. Better, perhaps, to pretend they don't know what they are doing and have no options and let everyone be nervous, while accomplishing a secretly planned strategy- but then, public panic and loss of credibility will have to be part of your plan, too. That's as far a spin as I can put on it; anything else is 'simple incompetence'.

My signature is unusually apt these days.

You are right that there has been muddle and poor communications.I doubt however whether any other government would have performed better - they are all subject to the same constraints.I don't think your "planned incompetence" scenario holds up other than a theoretical construct, but obviously there are some very hard decisions involved in terms of Bangkok flooding control.Whether they are correct (although there will never be commonly agreed "right" decisions) or not remains to be seen, hopefully by early next week.At the same time there has been a great amount of hatred and bile directed at the PM for reasons which are clearly, at one level or another, politically motivated in the very worst sense.Constructive criticism is another matter altogether, and is to be welcomed.However if we are talking about lazy thinking it is important not to overlook the key factors involving many years of poor water management, institutional lethargy and the force of nature itself.As I have previously noted there have been barefaced lies, now exposed, for example the US Navy's role and the security of key royal sites.

What I do think is admirable is the determination of security force leaders, not necessarily friendly in the political sense to the current government, to put aside conflict for the good of the country.

[hammered]

While everyone looks at the political elements and largely blame is seen depending on whether in or outside BKK, there is another issue that is very much structural and beyond politics although caused by it. The bureaucracy at times of political uncertainty go into neutral gear and stick with default policies.

This year there has been an election and as soon as it was announced that meant the bureaucrats went into neutral and were only going to come out when they saw who their new direct bosses were (not minister but bureaucratic boss). To this point the incoming government haven't finished rotating bureaucrats (October is a big month for that) meaning the neutral approach hasn't even finished. Those in control of the dams are in this group and the default policy was to keep water to prevent drought which dates back quite a few months to a very low rainfall month before the election, and I'm not blaming the previous government for setting that policy at that time before the election was announced and hence before the neutral gear hit home.

Now I'm not trying to blame anyone here but it is a massive weakness of the Thai system where every government of every shade always changes bureaucrats bosses and so underlings of even quite a senior rank never ever make decisions until they are sure of who is boss, what the policy is and how they fit in the system. This gets missed in the massive political divide but as it isn't about who is in power.

Of course add on the multiple bodies and layers of local influence too just to complicate everything. It is a natural tragedy worsened by man made issues but with the critical ones on an institutional level rather than a political party one.

[OzMick]

She has my sympathy. There is nothing that can be done to stop the deluge that is befalling the country. Whatever could have been done, would never be done by politicians. Politicians simply lack the expertise and will to handle a natural disaster.

The true test will be the aftermath of the current disaster.

She is a lot stronger than I thought she was. The fact that she has continued to hang in there during these extremely stressful times is amazing.

Amazing??? What was the alternative?