Ocean Surges Slowing Down Flood Drainage: Expert

[Dork]

The tide tables from the Thai Navy give a pretty accurate picture of the tidal effect on the Chao Phraya.

IYou can see them here http://www.navy.mi.t...hraya/rtnhq.htm It isn't in English but still possible to get the gist of it

I don't really even understand what a "surge" is but the blue line shows the tide chart whereas the red and green show the actual (& predicted) levels of the river at the Navy headquarters in downtown BKK so they must include the effect of any such "surge"

I have been following this navy webpage closely since last years river flooding because my house is right on the river bank in Nonthaburi and was inundated by the river up to 50cm starting from late last month. From early this month the river level went down & my house was no longer flooded. However around Loy Krathong the level started to come up again and the flooding returned.

Right now the river level is significantly lower that the peak during the last month. However, if you look at the aforementioned link, it show the tide now going up again and will peak this weekend at an even higher level than last month. I am hopeful that the northern runoff has reduced sufficiently so that the coming high tide won't cause me flooding again but I'm not sure of that.

Obviously to accurately estimate the future river level one needs to calculate the combined effects of the tide and northern runoff but It seems impossible to find any accurate information or predictions of how much water is flowing down the river to enable an educated guess at the coming river level.

Cheers, John

[whybother]

The tide tables from the Thai Navy give a pretty accurate picture of the tidal effect on the Chao Phraya.

IYou can see them here http://www.navy.mi.t...hraya/rtnhq.htm It isn't in English but still possible to get the gist of it

I don't really even understand what a "surge" is but the blue line shows the tide chart whereas the red and green show the actual (& predicted) levels of the river at the Navy headquarters in downtown BKK so they must include the effect of any such "surge"

I have been following this navy webpage closely since last years river flooding because my house is right on the river bank in Nonthaburi and was inundated by the river up to 50cm starting from late last month. From early this month the river level went down & my house was no longer flooded. However around Loy Krathong the level started to come up again and the flooding returned.

Right now the river level is significantly lower that the peak during the last month. However, if you look at the aforementioned link, it show the tide now going up again and will peak this weekend at an even higher level than last month. I am hopeful that the northern runoff has reduced sufficiently so that the coming high tide won't cause me flooding again but I'm not sure of that.

Obviously to accurately estimate the future river level one needs to calculate the combined effects of the tide and northern runoff but It seems impossible to find any accurate information or predictions of how much water is flowing down the river to enable an educated guess at the coming river level.

Cheers, John

"I don't really even understand what a "surge" is"

A "surge" could be caused by 2 things ... the winds blowing the water up the gulf and the low pressure (tropical storms, typhoons, hurricanes) effectively sucking the water higher.

[Dork]

The tide tables from the Thai Navy give a pretty accurate picture of the tidal effect on the Chao Phraya.

IYou can see them here http://www.navy.mi.t...hraya/rtnhq.htm It isn't in English but still possible to get the gist of it

I don't really even understand what a "surge" is but the blue line shows the tide chart whereas the red and green show the actual (& predicted) levels of the river at the Navy headquarters in downtown BKK so they must include the effect of any such "surge"

I have been following this navy webpage closely since last years river flooding because my house is right on the river bank in Nonthaburi and was inundated by the river up to 50cm starting from late last month. From early this month the river level went down & my house was no longer flooded. However around Loy Krathong the level started to come up again and the flooding returned.

Right now the river level is significantly lower that the peak during the last month. However, if you look at the aforementioned link, it show the tide now going up again and will peak this weekend at an even higher level than last month. I am hopeful that the northern runoff has reduced sufficiently so that the coming high tide won't cause me flooding again but I'm not sure of that.

Obviously to accurately estimate the future river level one needs to calculate the combined effects of the tide and northern runoff but It seems impossible to find any accurate information or predictions of how much water is flowing down the river to enable an educated guess at the coming river level.

Cheers, John

"I don't really even understand what a "surge" is"

A "surge" could be caused by 2 things ... the winds blowing the water up the gulf and the low pressure (tropical storms, typhoons, hurricanes) effectively sucking the water higher.

OK, thanks for the explanation. However since the navy tide chart page also shows the actual river level 50 (or so) kilometers north of the sea, they must take into account the effect of these surges. Or am I missing something?

[whybother]

OK, thanks for the explanation. However since the navy tide chart page also shows the actual river level 50 (or so) kilometers north of the sea, they must take into account the effect of these surges. Or am I missing something?

The tide charts are determined a long way in advance (years?). Weather changes day to day.

They might be able to predict the tide day to day in the same way as they predict the weather, but if it's anything more than a week it would just be the standard tides without taking into consideration any weather effects.

[Ponbkk]

OK, thanks for the explanation. However since the navy tide chart page also shows the actual river level 50 (or so) kilometers north of the sea, they must take into account the effect of these surges. Or am I missing something?

The tide charts are determined a long way in advance (years?). Weather changes day to day.

They might be able to predict the tide day to day in the same way as they predict the weather, but if it's anything more than a week it would just be the standard tides without taking into consideration any weather effects.

The tide table could be theory (timing, certainly) or measured averages (level) or combo. The deviation will be due to atmospheric 'surges' down or up , and the excess water coming into or not into the system (water table - high when fllooding!!!!). I think this river just maintains its own level nnear the water table, it's very flat here.

Edited November 23, 2011 by Ponbkk

[whybother]

The tide table could be theory (timing, certainly) or measured averages (level) or combo. The deviation will be due to atmospheric 'surges' down or up , and the excess water coming into or not into the system (water table - high when fllooding!!!!). I think this river just maintains its own level at the water table, it's very flat here.

But the atmospheric surges aren't generally known until a couple of weeks before at best. Certainly not to the extent of knowing the high/low tides to the minute.

[lannarebirth]

The ignorance of government experts here is truly astonishing.

Ignorance seems too inadequate a word to describe the phenomenon. I'm just sorry that the poor buffalo is so often compared with these morons.

[Ponbkk]

The tide table could be theory (timing, certainly) or measured averages (level) or combo. The deviation will be due to atmospheric 'surges' down or up , and the excess water coming into or not into the system (water table - high when fllooding!!!!). I think this river just maintains its own level at the water table, it's very flat here.

But the atmospheric surges aren't generally known until a couple of weeks before at best. Certainly not to the extent of knowing the high/low tides to the minute.

Certainly. If they were part of the tide tables (i.e. levels based on measurements) their effect would be almost randomly dispersed in the tide level predictions as they do not correlate with the tides timing.

[slapout]

My grandmother use to refer to people who acted, made statements, observations, etc without a clue as "Ninnies". The longer and more frequently the newspapers print, and tv broadcasts this type of rhetoric the less faith many have in fellow humans, as the most intelligent species.

They say it takes a disaster to bring out the worst and the best of people but the longer I live here the more I think we can blame any government position as bringing out the former. Someone needs to put a gag order on the majority of the public servants as well as sending them to a sand pile to play together.

[drdoom6996]

"there is a mild ocean surge"

yes, it's called high tide. BTW the ocean is far away, the expert should talk about the gulf of thailand.

"one of the factors contributing to the higher surge is a monsoon - the first in recent years - travelling north from the Gulf of Thailand and hitting winter winds from China"

there are 2 monsoons in thailand - from the south-west bringing moist air from the indian ocean and bringing the rainy season, and from the north-east, bringing dry seasons.

Monsoons were here for ever, but each year coming earlier or later, for a different length of time and with a different strength.

Exactly, that's how it is, period. Nothing new either. What kind of "expert" has The Nation dug out here?

But in a country where the head of the Meteorological Department announces that with a new weather

radar system he would be able to predict the rainfall of a whole monsoon season (He did a few weeks ago)...

What can you expect??

I can get anything on the internet. Much more than I can understand. A new weather forecasting system is not needed. A new weather forecaster is absolutely essential as this one is an idiot. He tells you nothing until it is already history. And then acts like a genius. What the FROC?

[overherebc]

The tide table could be theory (timing, certainly) or measured averages (level) or combo. The deviation will be due to atmospheric 'surges' down or up , and the excess water coming into or not into the system (water table - high when fllooding!!!!). I think this river just maintains its own level at the water table, it's very flat here.

But the atmospheric surges aren't generally known until a couple of weeks before at best. Certainly not to the extent of knowing the high/low tides to the minute.

Certainly. If they were part of the tide tables (i.e. levels based on measurements) their effect would be almost randomly dispersed in the tide level predictions as they do not correlate with the tides timing.

Believe the biggest danger would come from the low pressure area following the high tide in the gulf and both arriving at the same time on the coast. depending on how low the pressure goes the rise can be quite dramatic. Check some examples on the Gulf in USA in the past. If, that happened here I don't think it would be clear by next Xmas.

[jpinx]

...and THAT is exactly why I stopped listening to all of these "experts"! Said it before: put a glass of beer and a glass of water in front of me...in 2 out of 3 cases, I will be able to avoid the water...I guess, I am a water- expert as well!

that made me choke on my tea....

[Thai at Heart]

This is clearly an excellent illustration of "the gang that couldn't shoot straight." The government water expert is telling the newspaper that he knew about this surge all along but didn't want to say anything for fear of scaring foreign investors away. And then the newspaper goes on aimless diatribe. Does The Nation know the meaning of 'investigative journalism?" Honestly, it's time that readers started questioning the professionalism of the newspaper. Shouldn't the reporter be questioning and verifying sources?

How could Phisit, an official of the irrigation dept in Samut Sakhon, be making a claim that "news about the surge had been kept under wraps' so as not to scare away foreign investors without it being challenged? Other than the most amateur newspapers, this is inexcusable. Not challenging an obvious admission and outright lying to foreign investors so as to falsely represent the soundness of investment in the region is preposterous. Foreign investors should run, run as fast as they can and keep running faster.

"Does The Nation know the meaning of 'investigative journalism?"

NO.

This is so typically Thai as to make you want to laugh. Oh, you silly foreign investors, don't you know that we Thai experts have known about this secret surge forever, and you couldn't possibly need to know about it, so we just better to keep it secret?????????????????????????????

Of course, keeping foreign investors happy by lying to them is a far better way.

What odds that this "surge" is a rather common phenomenon, and our resident expert had to come up with ANY reason under the sun why it is taking so bloody long to drain this water out of the industrial estates. I mean after all, it isn't as though someone may have neglected to mention that being behind a flood wall 2m high in a known flood estuary area might lead to catastrophic flooding thus causing foreigners not to part with their money and build said industrial park.

[yoshiwara]

Are the 1,000 boats now pointing in the wrong direction?

I blame the moon.

[Soutpeel]

What odds that this "surge" is a rather common phenomenon,

What are odds that the "surge" is a figment of the water experts imagination ?...

[Thaddeus]

What odds that this "surge" is a rather common phenomenon,

What are odds that the "surge" is a figment of the water experts imagination ?...

Unless he's the Surge Fairy.

[slapout]

Now for all you skeptics, ocean surges are quite well known and recognized for their problem causing characteristics. This can include, water back flow, near the oceans in which they occur, the associated problem of sea sickness, and their tendency to make for rough sailing/boating. I think our expert confused surge with waves or the translator did, so the cat has been let out of the bag. Its not a big secret anymore. Promote the man to the Ministry of Science and black magic working for the prop head.

[tourismloving]

Situation Update: Flooding in Thailand

Announced by: TAT News

Date of published: November 23, 2011

Flood waters are receding in most of the affected areas of Thailand’s central provinces and several districts of greater Bangkok. Central Bangkok was not affected by the flood. No provinces in the south, north, and northeast of Thailand are affected by the flood. Almost all key tourist destinations and attractions throughout Thailand were not affected by the flood.

As the flooding situation has become more stable, the TAT will provide further situation updates as needed to reflect changing conditions.

Situation in Bangkok

In the Bangkok Metropolitan Area, the central part of the city where most tourists go was not affected by the flood. It is expected to remain dry. Flood water is receding in many districts of Bangkok. This includes the Chatuchak District, where Chatuchak Weekend Market is located. The market itself is not flooded. Central Plaza Lad Phrao, which is also in the Chatuchak District, has reopened.

Areas still flooded in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area include suburbs in the east and west, the west bank of the Chao Phraya River, and districts in the northern part of the city.

In central Bangkok, businesses, hotels, shops and tourist attractions are open as per normal in areas including:

• Khao San Road
• Ratchaprasong (Central World area)
• Phetchaburi Road
• Sathorn
• Ploenchit/ Chidlom
• Siam Square/ MBK/ Siam Paragon
• Pratunam
• Silom/ Surawongse
• Rama I Road
• Sukhumvit Road/ The Emporium
• Rama IV Road
• Yaowarat (Chinatown)

Tourists who want to check the latest conditions can call the TAT Information Line at 1672 or visit TAT’s official Web site for flood information: www.thailandtourismupdate.com. Service operators can also provide additional information.

The BTS Skytrain and MRT subway are operating normally. Taxis and tuk tuks are available as per normal. Some BMTA bus routes are still rerouted or suspended due to the flooding. Some express boat services on the Chao Phraya River have resumed.

Now let me get this rite.

The Government is telling us that

"He said that due to the surges, flood drainage would take longer and might even be extended to the third week of December."

Who is doing the extending?

[thaihome]

What odds that this "surge" is a rather common phenomenon,

What are odds that the "surge" is a figment of the water experts imagination ?...

I suspect that this what the expert was talking about:

General Situation

Weather Advisory No. 10 (273/2011) Subject: Heavy rain and strong wind-wave in Southern Thailand ---------------------- During 23-25 Nov, the strong northeast monsoon prevails over the Gulf and the South of Thailand. Torrential rain and heavy to very heavy fall many places is likely in the southern east coast from Nakhon Si Thammarat southward. People in the risky area in the foothill near waterway and the lowland should beware of flash flood and flooding conditions. These areas are warned of Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Trang and Satun. The strong wind-waves in the Gulf of Thailand are expected 2-4 meters high. All ships should proceed with caution and small boats keep ashore and people who lives along the south coast (east-coast) to take precaution a danger of the high waves splash toward the shore during the period. Westerly trough from Myanmar move through the northern. This makes the area look like a rain before and the temperature is reduced and cool weather continues.

Would seem to me that a heavy winds blowing northeast that causes 2-4 meter waves would cause some surge against the mouth of the rivers draining into the Gulf south of Bangkok.

Our only vessel in the Gulf took off to Songkla a few days agp becasue of this weather forecast. Heard it is getting bad.

TH

[cloudhopper]

Would seem to me that a heavy winds blowing northeast that causes 2-4 meter waves would cause some surge against the mouth of the rivers draining into the Gulf south of Bangkok.

Yes however the surface winds are from the NE and therefore offshore from Bangkok.

[bumpkin]

One point alluded to in the report, so much of which is questionable, is the importance of maintaining mangrove. This somewhat unattractive coastal feature has develped over time as the natural way to protect the coast. No man-made coastal defences can better it. However, it is incompatible with financially rewarding Coastal developments, so it is destroyed to the long term detriment of coastal regions.

[lounger]

This is clearly an excellent illustration of "the gang that couldn't shoot straight." The government water expert is telling the newspaper that he knew about this surge all along but didn't want to say anything for fear of scaring foreign investors away. And then the newspaper goes on aimless diatribe. Does The Nation know the meaning of 'investigative journalism?" Honestly, it's time that readers started questioning the professionalism of the newspaper. Shouldn't the reporter be questioning and verifying sources?

How could Phisit, an official of the irrigation dept in Samut Sakhon, be making a claim that "news about the surge had been kept under wraps' so as not to scare away foreign investors without it being challenged? Other than the most amateur newspapers, this is inexcusable. Not challenging an obvious admission and outright lying to foreign investors so as to falsely represent the soundness of investment in the region is preposterous. Foreign investors should run, run as fast as they can and keep running faster.

Mr Phisitsan what else not telling us? You want us come with our rebuilt factories on the strength of your discreet answers..... No Mr Phsitsan you put big nail in the coffin of Japanese investment. We not trust anything you say......

[biplanebluey]

Is there a monsoon in the gulf?

Yes, of course,This is a good time table with the surges: http://easytide.ukho...dictionLength=7

How is a 40 cm monsoon-caused surge seen/confirmed in the tide table? What is the cyclical nature of such a surge? Is it cyclical or is it represented by an offset of the tidal surges?

Ya got me buggered on that one Max,but if you ask Royol and Phisit I'm sure they will put their heads together and come up with something-----Dougal

[cdnski12]

I think it more likely that the upstream dams are frantically spilling water to prevent dam collapse or washout. The water should have been under control long ago. Obviously the dams are spilling water. Needless to say they want to avoid financial liability. Probably the big Bankok based manufacturers with damaged facilities are lining up their high priced lawyers right now. This will be a financial nivarna for the big Thai Legal Companies!

Edited November 23, 2011 by cdnski12

[Thai at Heart]

I think it more likely that the upstream dams are frantically spilling water to prevent dam collapse or washout. The water should have been under control long ago. Obviously the dams are spilling water. Needless to say they want to avoid financial liability. Probably the big Bankok based manufacturers with damaged facilities are lining up their high priced lawyers right now. This will be a financial nivarna for the big Thai Legal Companies!

Aint gonna happen. The insurers are sitting on their hands, and the companies are having to get on with it. Dozens of SME's are going to go belly up over this mess. As for the companies being able to sue to constructors of the estates? Now that would be a juicy one, but unfortunately is never, ever going to happen. No one levers so much money out of foreign investors only to have to give it all back in this country.

You have underestimated how much water there was and is out there still. To actively "manage" the creation of flood like this, would appear to require a level of incompetence as yet unseen in the recent history of largely manmade disasters.

This whole story probably revolves around someone having obviously told someone a porky pie, that the estates would all be dry by the end of the month. And to think that the japanese apparently have trouble understanding the concept of face also.

[Thaddeus]

Is there a monsoon in the gulf?

Yes, of course,This is a good time table with the surges: http://easytide.ukho...dictionLength=7

How is a 40 cm monsoon-caused surge seen/confirmed in the tide table? What is the cyclical nature of such a surge? Is it cyclical or is it represented by an offset of the tidal surges?

Ya got me buggered on that one Max,but if you ask Royol and Phisit I'm sure they will put their heads together and come up with something-----Dougal

I've got it..... it was caused by the sharp intakes of breath by most inmates of BKK after several announcements made them suck the water towards themselves.

That has just as much credibility.

[Ponbkk]

We are now in a low tide trend but the river is high because of a surge.

My apologies as I read my post(s) yesterday I should have said "the river is high now due to the flood waters (water table) +1.5 m plus the surge (+40 cm) approx.

[whybother]

We are now in a low tide trend but the river is high because of a surge.

My apologies as I read my post(s) yesterday I should have said "the river is high now due to the flood waters (water table) +1.5 m plus the surge (+40 cm) approx.

Isn't the "water table" underground?

[Soutpeel]

We are now in a low tide trend but the river is high because of a surge.

My apologies as I read my post(s) yesterday I should have said "the river is high now due to the flood waters (water table) +1.5 m plus the surge (+40 cm) approx.

Isn't the "water table" underground?

Typically yes.... ....if it was above ground it would be called a lake, sea or ocean ..

[maidu]

Quick, get another 1,000 boats tethered out in the Gulf of Thailand, revving their engines - that should do help alleviate the problem. Oh, and while we're at it, let's start building another city on some mud flats - I'm sure there are still a lot of mud flats out there, particularly where the mangroves used to be.

Hey, but it's the farangs that buy condos

There are probably other intelligence-challenged people who buy condos in Thailand. I just did a quick search of condo prices in Bangkok - some are over Bt.100,000 per square meter. I wonder if that includes complimentary rubber dingy and hip-high wading boots.