Thailand 'Needs Proper System To Predict Quakes'

[JVichitt]

Great reporting from The Nation. </s>

[BigJohnnyBKK]

"Thailand needs a proper legal system and clean government and honest police forces in order to end corruption"

"Africa needs a proper system to end poverty"

"USA needs to get corporate money out of politics"

Those at least theoretically possible.

[chiang mai]

Yes, but the sum of all the micro-earthquakes over time indicates trend, that data serves as the basis for a prediction.

But if micro-quakes are happening, that would suggest that "slipping" is happening. It's when the slipping stops that there is more likely to be a larger quake. But you can't predict when that will happen.

Using your logic, slipping is in itself a micro earthquake that can measured on a seismograph, I couldn't begin to guess how the analysis is done but perhaps a cesation of micro earthquakes is a part of it. As for the when, a prediction is the forecasting of a future event, not necessarily with timescales.

It's pointless predicting an earthquake if you don't have any idea when (even within a reasonable timeframe) it is going to happen.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

I disagree, if a quake can be anticipated then chances are that it can classified into big or small, presumably that ability exists given the availability of historical readings and known past siesmic events. I also suspect that past trends would indicate whether such an event is probably going to happen sooner, later or much later, I think that's a useful step to have achieved on the path towards developing more precise timelines.

[Thai at Heart]

Didnt they arrest a fortune teller recently. And as for no catastrophes most people would classify a chemical factory blowing up as a disaster.

[jimpthai]

First of all, most of the quotes in the article concern predicting tsunamis, which can be done. After the devastating tsunami of 2004, the Indian Ocean now has a adequate warning system. But of course, even the scientifically advanced Japanese cannot yet predict specific earthquakes. The activeness of faults is mainly based on the history of the fault.

The second scientist quoted is a meteorologist. Meteorology is the study of weather and climate, which has nothing to do with earthquakes. I hope they are kidding whenever I hear people say, "This feels like earthquake weather."

What could be done is the upgrading of building standards along major fault-lines in Thailand. I'm joking here! I mean, how many current building statutes are followed now. Standards are determined by how much money the builder can slip to building inspectors.

Edited May 6, 2012 by jimpthai

[anterian]

Earthquake prediction is an exercise in probabilities based on history, measurable movements, gravity changes, mantle composition etc. The more data we have the better the prediction but we are a long way yet from any level of precision. A half serious suggestion I have met is to use people who are good predictors, people who always seem to succeed in areas of chance, rolling dice, playing cards or the stock exchange. Such people seem to do consistently better than random chance would predict. It has been suggested that such people's subconscious simply has better processing powers than a supercomputer, thus they have good hunches.

[toybits]

What Thailand needs is to get used to the IDEA that earthquakes DO occur and the only way you can reduce damage is by building structures that can withstand them. Seeing so many buildings with tiny posts makes my skin crawl.

[samjaidee]

First of all, most of the quotes in the article concern predicting tsunamis, which can be done. After the devastating tsunami of 2004, the Indian Ocean now has a adequate warning system. But of course, even the scientifically advanced Japanese cannot yet predict specific earthquakes. The activeness of faults is mainly based on the history of the fault.

The second scientist quoted is a meteorologist. Meteorology is the study of weather and climate, which has nothing to do with earthquakes. I hope they are kidding whenever I hear people say, "This feels like earthquake weather."

What could be done is the upgrading of building standards along major fault-lines in Thailand. I'm joking here! I mean, how many current building statutes are followed now. Standards are determined by how much money the builder can slip to building inspectors.

Tsunamis are a direct result of earthquakes. If you can't predict an earthquake, you can't predict a Tsunami. You can warn that a Tsunami may occur after an earthquake but that's not a prediction, it's a warning.

[how241]

Thailand still does not have a proper scientific method of predicting earthquakes, a university lecturer has warned.

Nor does any country in the world, despite the best efforts of, among others, the Japanese, who would benefit more than most from such a system.

+1...Thailand and the rest of the world need such a system.

[whybother]

It's pointless predicting an earthquake if you don't have any idea when (even within a reasonable timeframe) it is going to happen.

I disagree, if a quake can be anticipated then chances are that it can classified into big or small, presumably that ability exists given the availability of historical readings and known past siesmic events. I also suspect that past trends would indicate whether such an event is probably going to happen sooner, later or much later, I think that's a useful step to have achieved on the path towards developing more precise timelines.

You would need to anticipate an earthquake 100% of the time. If you have a series of small earthquakes, that is not an indication that you will have more small earthquakes, a large earthquake or any more earthquakes. If there has been no earthquake for a while, that is no indication that there will be or not be a future earthquake, or how strong any earthquake would be.

[chiang mai]

It's pointless predicting an earthquake if you don't have any idea when (even within a reasonable timeframe) it is going to happen.

I disagree, if a quake can be anticipated then chances are that it can classified into big or small, presumably that ability exists given the availability of historical readings and known past siesmic events. I also suspect that past trends would indicate whether such an event is probably going to happen sooner, later or much later, I think that's a useful step to have achieved on the path towards developing more precise timelines.

You would need to anticipate an earthquake 100% of the time. If you have a series of small earthquakes, that is not an indication that you will have more small earthquakes, a large earthquake or any more earthquakes. If there has been no earthquake for a while, that is no indication that there will be or not be a future earthquake, or how strong any earthquake would be.

I don't know, I'm not a siesmic analyst but it sounds like you are or could be!

[Jerrytheyoung]

Some specialists say that the elephants are aware of future earthquake: so to select the best of them.... a "Chang" network..

[JetsetBkk]

Dr Wattana Kanbua of the Meteorological Department said nobody had ever imagined that Thailand would be hit by a tsunami...

...except Dr Smith Dharmasaroja, former Director of the National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC).

Yes & I think he got fired after his warning.

Mustn't scare the tourists away...

[chrisinth]

Some specialists say that the elephants are aware of future earthquake: so to select the best of them.... a "Chang" network..

Maybe more truth in that approach than you might think...........

[Soupdragon]

Some specialists say that the elephants are aware of future earthquake: so to select the best of them.... a "Chang" network..

Maybe more truth in that approach than you might think...........

All we need now is someone who speaks Chang.

[folium]

First of all, most of the quotes in the article concern predicting tsunamis, which can be done. After the devastating tsunami of 2004, the Indian Ocean now has a adequate warning system. But of course, even the scientifically advanced Japanese cannot yet predict specific earthquakes. The activeness of faults is mainly based on the history of the fault.

The second scientist quoted is a meteorologist. Meteorology is the study of weather and climate, which has nothing to do with earthquakes. I hope they are kidding whenever I hear people say, "This feels like earthquake weather."

What could be done is the upgrading of building standards along major fault-lines in Thailand. I'm joking here! I mean, how many current building statutes are followed now. Standards are determined by how much money the builder can slip to building inspectors.

Tsunamis are a direct result of earthquakes. If you can't predict an earthquake, you can't predict a Tsunami. You can warn that a Tsunami may occur after an earthquake but that's not a prediction, it's a warning.

Without meaning to be boring.....

tsunamis are most commonly generated by earthquakes but not exclusively. The other triggers are:

Submarine landslides eg Storegga Slide, off Norway c.6000 years BCE causing a 21m tsunami to strike east coast of Scotland

Subaerial (above sea level) landslides including glacier/ice sheet calving. Can occur inland eg Vaiont Dam, Italy 1963 and its 250m tsunami.

Volcanoes by debris flows or pyroclastic flows eg Krakatau, 1883. Potential situation at the Cumbre Vieja volcano in the Canaries which could pose a significant risk to the east coast of N.America if the western flank collapses. Mt St Helens triggered 250m high tsunamis on Spirit Lake during the 1980 eruption.

Meteorites eg Chixulub Impact, Mexico c 65million years ago, or Chesapeake Bay 35 million years ago

You can also predict tsunamis (though not with total accuracy) and this is done on a fairly regular basis via tsunami modelling (aided by tsunami detection buoys at sea) which enables the prediction of likely tsunami size, landfall and timings. Obviously this only works for areas some distance from the epicentre allowing the time for such predictions to be generated and warnings issued.

[harryfrompattaya]

Actually, *nobody* has a system to predict quakes.

Just because nobody has does that does not mean that Thais can not do it

Many are doing it now a friend of my Wife's can predict quakes.

She also has won a lot of money in Macaw predicting red or black at the casino

Do not be so negative I am glad I am a positive person

[pisico]

Talk about priorities!

I am sure that the participants to the lecture were awed by the tone of it.

Remember the ice age of the 70s? The fear mongering of Al (G)Bore predicting that we would all fry in a giant green house. That fear mongering made him indecently wealthy, got him an Oscar and a Nobel Prize.

A cynic would say: fear sells, sometimes more and easier than as sex.

[JVichitt]

I know Dr. Weera. He's not a fear monger, but instead is a very competent academic. He doesn't talk bullshit, so that means that he has an idea of what to do to improve the earthquake response system.

[bigbamboo]

I know Dr. Weera. He's not a fear monger, but instead is a very competent academic. He doesn't talk bullshit, so that means that he has an idea of what to do to improve the earthquake response system.

Does it involve the procurement of a large budget?

Sorry to be sceptical but what he is suggesting is not only unfeasible but also unwarranted in a country which only experiences minor quakes.

[JVichitt]

I know Dr. Weera. He's not a fear monger, but instead is a very competent academic. He doesn't talk bullshit, so that means that he has an idea of what to do to improve the earthquake response system.

Does it involve the procurement of a large budget?

Sorry to be sceptical but what he is suggesting is not only unfeasible but also unwarranted in a country which only experiences minor quakes.

I'm not sure how large of a budget he's requesting or what his idea actually is, but Mahidol University has a huge annual endowment that is spent relatively conservatively. Whatever he may spend on this project won't compare to the massive campus and hospital construction projects that never seem to end.

[Payboy]

Thailand 'Needs Proper System To Predict Quakes'

I predict a windfall for some as a result of this urgent need.

[rakman]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

I didn't suggest it does predict, I said, "the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake" - ergo, analysis of the trends leads to a prediction!

You are correct in knowing more about the geology can give everyone a better idea of what could happen. It's just that nagging problem of when.

Since the 1960's geo-scientists in Southern California have been saying the "Big One" is only 50 years away. The "Big One" is the So Cal San Andreas quake. Now several large earthquakes have happened in So. Cal over the last 50 years, which shows a build up of stress in the area, but there isn't enough data or models that can predict when a quake will occur.

"Predicting" earthquakes is currently a "where" rather than "when". If you know where the faults are, their age, and collect movement data you get a much better idea of what could happen in the future. How long in the future, i.e. prediction is a long way off.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1857_01_09.php

[maidu]

The professor is targetting his blurb towards Thais - who generally don't know that earthquake prediction is not a reliable science. He's not addressing farang. Similarly, the gov't agency which spent millions of baht on gas to power the boats which were supposed to move the flood water downstream faster - was addressing Thais, not farang.

Thais are a superstitious people, so they're apt to believe that earthquake prediction is plausible. The only way an earthquake prediction has any worth is if it can tangibly get people out of danger areas quick enough to avoid danger. Generalities don't cut it. There's been some interesting work done with animals, but to get it to work reliably enough to compel tens of thousands of people to immediately evacuate a city, is not yet reality.

[folium]

Isn't there a system on the San Andeas fault line that measures subtle plate movements, the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake, I'm pretty sure there is. Does it work with any degree of accuracy, dunno.

It doesn't "predict". It's just a measurement.

I didn't suggest it does predict, I said, "the results from which can indicate trends leading to a quake" - ergo, analysis of the trends leads to a prediction!

You are correct in knowing more about the geology can give everyone a better idea of what could happen. It's just that nagging problem of when.

Since the 1960's geo-scientists in Southern California have been saying the "Big One" is only 50 years away. The "Big One" is the So Cal San Andreas quake. Now several large earthquakes have happened in So. Cal over the last 50 years, which shows a build up of stress in the area, but there isn't enough data or models that can predict when a quake will occur.

"Predicting" earthquakes is currently a "where" rather than "when". If you know where the faults are, their age, and collect movement data you get a much better idea of what could happen in the future. How long in the future, i.e. prediction is a long way off.

http://earthquake.us.../1857_01_09.php

The other element (apart from location and timing) that needs to be incorporated in a useful prediction is the magnitude (amount of energy released). Such a 3 step requirement means that today no reliable quake prediction system exists.

[lonewolf99]

As I type this there is a rolling script at the bottom of the page that mentions flash floods. Since no one can "predict" these what chances are there of Earthquake prediction?

If Elephants as mentioned already can predict earthqakes - How do we humans know. Do the Mahoots understand Elephant talk ?

Mark my words there will be an earthquake soon enough....somewhere on planet Earth.

My prediction is anywhere along the West coast of the U.S.A. there will be a big one. How do I "guess" this.

My theory......

You have a massive tectonic plate that the Pacific Ocean sits over. The central relief valve is Hawaii. We have had big ones in Bander Aceh, bottom left of plate. Chile, bottom right of the plate. Japan, top left of the plate and there is sadly one missing......Top right of the plate.

Remember folks you saw the prediction here first !!!

Edited May 6, 2012 by lonewolf99

[jamesbrock]

The professor is targetting his blurb towards Thais - who generally don't know that earthquake prediction is not a reliable science. He's not addressing farang. Similarly, the gov't agency which spent millions of baht on gas to power the boats which were supposed to move the flood water downstream faster - was addressing Thais, not farang.

Thais are a superstitious people, so they're apt to believe that earthquake prediction is plausible. The only way an earthquake prediction has any worth is if it can tangibly get people out of danger areas quick enough to avoid danger. Generalities don't cut it. There's been some interesting work done with animals, but to get it to work reliably enough to compel tens of thousands of people to immediately evacuate a city, is not yet reality.

Of course you're right. They are a superstitious egocentric people, the vast majority of whom have no idea what is happening or has happened outside their border - which is why the good professor needn't mention no other country in the world has such a system.

Did anybody see the story on the news the other day? Apparently the Thais have now invented flameproof curtains!