Windows Phone Will Pass Iphone By 2016: Report

[george]

Windows Phone will pass iPhone by 2016

A report on Wednesday from IDC projects that shipments of Windows Phone will displace Apple iOS to become the second most popular smartphone by 2016. Android will retain the top spot.

The growth of iPhone smartphones from Apple will moderate over the five-year IDC forecast because the popular device will have saturated many markets around the world.

During the period, Apple will start having to rely on its customers to replace older iPhone models while searching out new buyers in emerging markets. "Emerging market growth is of utmost importance if iOS is to gain share," IDC said.

The researcher predicts that Windows Phone will gain market share over the five-year period despite its slow start. Nokia, which is making Windows Phone-based devices, is seen as strong in emerging markets, IDC added. In 2016, IDC projects that the iPhone's worldwide market share will drop from from 20.5 percent in 2012 to 19 percent. Meanwhile, Windows Phone's share will jump from 5.2 percent in 2012 to 19.2 percent in 2016, IDC said.

Android will continue to hold its top position over the five years, though it's share will decline slightly from 61 percent in 2012 to 52.9 percent in 2016, IDC said. Android shipments will be dominated by Samsung-made devices, although there will continue to be many Android smartphones from manufacturers such as Motorola, HTC, and LG.

The news for Apple is not all bad, though, because shipment volumes will continue to increase shipment through 2016 despite the decline in market share, IDC noted. That's because the overall smartphone market will continue to grow by 12.7 percent over the five-year period.

Even shipments of the struggling BlackBerry smartphone from Research in Motion will grow by nearly 11 percent over five years, though its market share will decline slightly from 6 percent to 5.9 percent in 2016. IDC said BlackBerry's market share will barely decline because many customers in emerging markets want affordable messaging devices.

The numbers for this year aren't shabby, either, according to IDC: Some 686 million smartphones will ship in 2012, an increase of by nearly 39 percent over 2011.

-- Macworld 2012-06-07

[Thai at Heart]

Piffle

[Katipo]

Interesting, and I also agree that windows will do well. Learning from past mistakes, Windows 8 will likely see Microsoft rising back to top thanks to it being used on PC's, notebook, tablets, and phones. Intergration, convergence, synergy...mmmmmm.... nerdgasm!

It will be interesting to see how Nokia pushes the hardware too. While currently it is aesthetically pleasing, a geek such as myself needs the cutting edge specs to match.

[necronx99]

That's a new tack, growth will slow because they have saturation. So because everyone has one they will no longer be the most popular..... Rotfl

[CockneyGit]

Absolute tosh!

Samsung and Apple will be kicking ar5e for many a year to come.

[easybullet3]

Piffle

did you mean (1) or (2) ?

(1.) Piffle

The act of having sex in an amphitheater.

(eg) *two people walking along at an amplitheater*

Person one says to person 2: "Piffle?"

(2.) Piffle

Utter crap that people utter or express..much like nonsense..rubbish and Bull which is completely superficial and non relevant to anything interesting.

(ie) "Did see Debbie's status update on facebook the other day?"

Edited June 7, 2012 by easybullet3

[tragickingdom]

Maybe IDC should set up a subsidiary in Thailand. They can read cards, predict the outcome of the lottery every month and even predict rainfall. There is no company in the world that will be able to predict what is going to happen in 4 years time. This is the same company that predicted all kind of non existing features on the never introduced iPhone 5.

I predict that Windows is surpassed by OSX on computers by 2018, and that all windows phones will come with a build in toaster in 2020.

[happysanook]

one could only hope. iOS is garbage. Something like a retarded Android. No widgets, no home screen customization, no ability to truly take control of the device with an app, you have to shift keyboard to get to the numbers (?!), no dual SIM phones (unless adding some 3rd party silly dongle)... that's just for starters...

[hml367]

one could only hope. iOS is garbage. Something like a retarded Android. No widgets, no home screen customization, no ability to truly take control of the device with an app, you have to shift keyboard to get to the numbers (?!), no dual SIM phones (unless adding some 3rd party silly dongle)... that's just for starters...

And what was it Microsoft was sued for?

MSPain

[maithigh]

Piffle

in plops or dollops ?

[spidermike007]

Well, as a long time apple, and iPhone user, I would venture to say the iPhone needs a run for it's money. There are so many potential areas of improvement, I do not even know where to start. I use an iPhone 4 in both the US, and in Thailand. My biggest beef with the phone is the keyboard. What a piece of crap app they installed. And there are no alternatives? With the 3.5" face, the keyboard, even in the landscape position is terrible small, unfriendly, and unforgiving. I am decent typist, and I cannot type one sentence without errors on this load of crap keyboard. I believe it is the worst aspect of this phone, and the very reason I am considering abandoning the iPhone for the new Samsung Galaxy 3S, which I am told is 5 times the phone that the iPhone 4 is (and has a 4.8" screen). Yes, plenty of room for improvement on the iPhone, and the competition has some potential to take over, unless apple gets it's act together soon.

[lomatopo]

Note that IDC will say I am good looking, provided I pay them enough in consulting fees.

[horsewell]

"Opinions are like ass-holes, everyone has one." O'Neill talking about IDC projects in the movie Patoon.

[IsaanUSA]

There is no company in the world that will be able to predict what is going to happen in 4 years time.

Especially in regards to technology!!!

[Crushdepth]

"Opinions are like ass-holes, everyone has one." O'Neill talking about IDC projects in the movie Patoon.

But some are better than others.

[whybother]

Maybe IDC should set up a subsidiary in Thailand. They can read cards, predict the outcome of the lottery every month and even predict rainfall. There is no company in the world that will be able to predict what is going to happen in 4 years time. This is the same company that predicted all kind of non existing features on the never introduced iPhone 5.

I predict that Windows is surpassed by OSX on computers by 2018, and that all windows phones will come with a build in toaster in 2020.

Complete crap. The toaster is due in 2019.

[MerrillHolt]

The problem with IDC's forecast in this case is they are basing this on hardware. They are giving Nokia the benefit of the doubt that they can drive windows phone sales. I seriously doubt this as there has not been any market indication that the windows phone software has the ability to compete sucessfully. Yes, you can find pundits who praise it but there has been as yet no indication of significant market impact. By this I mean to take market share from android and iOS. Microsoft's efforts in mobile OS have been moribund for many many years.

[necronx99]

Well, as a long time apple, and iPhone user, I would venture to say the iPhone needs a run for it's money. There are so many potential areas of improvement, I do not even know where to start. I use an iPhone 4 in both the US, and in Thailand. My biggest beef with the phone is the keyboard. What a piece of crap app they installed. And there are no alternatives? With the 3.5" face, the keyboard, even in the landscape position is terrible small, unfriendly, and unforgiving. I am decent typist, and I cannot type one sentence without errors on this load of crap keyboard. I believe it is the worst aspect of this phone, and the very reason I am considering abandoning the iPhone for the new Samsung Galaxy 3S, which I am told is 5 times the phone that the iPhone 4 is (and has a 4.8" screen). Yes, plenty of room for improvement on the iPhone, and the competition has some potential to take over, unless apple gets it's act together soon.

I used to be anti apple, mostly because I didn't like the fanboy cult.

Then I finally bit the bullet and got a 4 . For all it's faults and limitations, it just works.