Rally Failure A Boost For Thai Govt

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Rally failure a boost for govt

POLITICAL DESK

The Nation

The next challenge for the Yingluck administration is when Parliament debates the reconciliation bill and constitutional amendments, scheduled for next month

BANGKOK: -- The failure of the biggest ever protest against Yingluck Shinawatra's government is likely to have made her administration stronger and boosted confidence in her leadership - until the more controversial issues of the reconciliation bill and constitutional amendment emerge next year.

Anti-government protest leader Boonlert Kaewprasit, a retired four-star general, said no other person would succeed him as leader of the Pitak Siam (Protect Siam) group. "The rally failed and I don't think anybody will take over the leadership. They might be afraid of [failure]," he told reporters yesterday.

It is not easy for a movement to be reborn after such a failure and the leadership has lost credibility in the eyes of protesters who fully expected something big would happen on the day. Many protesters expressed their disappointment and anger over the decision to stop the rally, which lasted less than 10 hours on Saturday. Many complained they had wasted their time travelling from provinces throughout the country.

Analysts said there were many factors contributing to why the rally failed. The rally leaders were not able to propose a clear political objective for their protest. They said they rejected the elected government and politicians but could not offer an answer to the public over the ideal political regime they would want to see in their place. They had no idea who would replace the politicians now running the country.

Perhaps the anti-government sentiment was not sufficiently developed. The Pitak Siam group accused the government of corruption but failed to provide sufficient evidence to prove it. They alleged that Yingluck's government was whitewashing former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, but the government indeed had done little in that direction that they could show. The reconciliation bill is still far from a reality. A video clip of Pheu Thai MPs' alleged lese majeste is nothing new.

The Pitak Siam group and Boonlert, former chief of the Army's advisory board, lacked experience in leading a protest, let alone an angry mob. There were no good strategies or tactics about organising the rally, either. No responsible security guards were there to handle the chaotic situation when the protesters clashed with anti-riot police. It was widely believed that many who had promised to do security work for the rally did not show up on the day.

The number of protesters was also a key factor in the failure. The group aimed to mobilise a large crowd to join the rally on Saturday, especially after its previous rally last month had gathered up to 20,000 people. But the number in attendance on Saturday was still only 18,000-20,000 persons, according to police. Boonlert said earlier he would end the rally if less than 1 million people agreed to join. Such a numbers game was certain to backfire as Boonlert needed to keep his word.

Some analysts said the role of the military was a decisive factor. Pitak Siam had obviously called for military intervention in toppling the government, but Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha had said from the beginning that no soldier in service would join the rally, and there was no thought he would stage a coup to topple the government. The military was in stand-by mode to help police to control the situation, Prayuth said.

However it would be fair to say Boonlert made the right decision in calling off the protest to save lives after the first clashes between police and protesters.

Boonlert blamed the government for not keeping its promise to allow a peaceful protest. "We gathered peacefully and openly without weapons. We had no plan to storm any public premises - neither Government House nor the Parliament. Police should not have hurt the people," he said.

On the government side, credit should go to Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobumrung, who mapped out a strategy and handled the situation. Prime Minister Yingluck was kept away from the operation in order to have her divorced from responsibility or for any possible legal consequences.

It was a correct decision to authorise police to handle the operation, rather than the military, an observer said. Military action might have worsened the situation, he said.

However there were some errors in the police operation as officials on the ground decided to launch tear gas too quickly. Two photographers were nabbed for filming the incidents. Police took 138 protesters into custody for violating the Internal Security Act. Boonlert said he would file a lawsuit against the government for misconduct.

Suriyasai Katasila, leader of the Green Politic Group, blamed the government for handling events harshly. "From now on, peaceful protesting cannot happen easily as the government has designed violence to handle any rally," he said.

The next challenge for the government will be when the House deliberates the reconciliation bill and the constitutional amendments, which are on the House's agenda when Parliament opens its next session on December 21.

Not only will anti-government rallies gather to oppose the bills to pave the way for Thaksin to return to the country and grant him amnesty, but the pro-government red shirts will also put pressure on the government to pass the two bills.

That could be a tough task for the Yingluck government.

-- The Nation 2012-11- 26

[mike123ca]

How did Boonlert Kaewprasit, a retired four-star general, reach such a high rank

in the army?

His leadership in opposing the current government needs some assistance.

He should let the "yellow shirts" to continue it's opposition to the current government.

[bigbamboo]

How did Boonlert Kaewprasit, a retired four-star general, reach such a high rank

in the army?

His leadership in opposing the current government needs some assistance.

He should let the "yellow shirts" to continue it's opposition to the current government.

The armed forces are no different to the police or politicians. It's not what you know but who you know.

[ridkun]

I doubt it's a boost. I really doubt it did affect anything at all except the morale of red and yellow, especially on online forums and social media.

[jcw]

The next challenge for the government will be when the House deliberates the reconciliation bill and the constitutional amendments, which are on the House's agenda when Parliament opens its next session on December 21

Maybe a interesting holiday break for some

[khunken]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

[Rich teacher]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

[inquisitive]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

If round 1 was the end of the fight, then how could there possibly be a round 2 or 3? And by resounding election victory, do you mean receiving a majority of the votes, as in "more people voted for PT than voted against it"? If so, then I think you have another misunderstanding. Love 'em or hate 'em, the fact is that the country is polarized and kicking at each other. The fighting is far from over and was even less so at the end of the last election.

[khunken]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

Usual 'thinking' from one who thinks that an election is the be all & end all of democracy. Luckily there are a few checks & balances that Thaksin hasn't been able to prevent this time around.

[Rich teacher]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

If round 1 was the end of the fight, then how could there possibly be a round 2 or 3? And by resounding election victory, do you mean receiving a majority of the votes, as in "more people voted for PT than voted against it"? If so, then I think you have another misunderstanding. Love 'em or hate 'em, the fact is that the country is polarized and kicking at each other. The fighting is far from over and was even less so at the end of the last election.

Considering most commentators agreed that Obama's recent victory was convincing we can definitely say PT's was resounding. Apart from the votes they got you can factor in those millions of red/PT supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that don't have the means to return to their village & vote &/or the nous to go to the government office and fill out a form to vote outside of their electorate.

[Rich teacher]

Usual 'thinking' from one who thinks that an election is the be all & end all of democracy. Luckily there are a few checks & balances that Thaksin hasn't been able to prevent this time around.

Surely better than those who think that a government installed only as the result of the Army general's meddling was legitimate.

[whybother]

Considering most commentators agreed that Obama's recent victory was convincing we can definitely say PT's was resounding. Apart from the votes they got you can factor in those millions of red/PT supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that don't have the means to return to their village & vote &/or the nous to go to the government office and fill out a form to vote outside of their electorate.

And there are no Democrat supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that couldn't return home to vote??

[jbrain]

I doubt it's a boost. I really doubt it did affect anything at all except the morale of red and yellow, especially on online forums and social media.

The point is that with Pitak Siam Boonlert showed his ugly real face during this protest.

I doubt they will find much support for future rally's if their choice is using the same tactics as the red terrorists.

[Rich teacher]

Considering most commentators agreed that Obama's recent victory was convincing we can definitely say PT's was resounding. Apart from the votes they got you can factor in those millions of red/PT supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that don't have the means to return to their village & vote &/or the nous to go to the government office and fill out a form to vote outside of their electorate.

And there are no Democrat supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that couldn't return home to vote??

You don't get it do you?

[whybother]

Considering most commentators agreed that Obama's recent victory was convincing we can definitely say PT's was resounding. Apart from the votes they got you can factor in those millions of red/PT supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that don't have the means to return to their village & vote &/or the nous to go to the government office and fill out a form to vote outside of their electorate.

And there are no Democrat supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that couldn't return home to vote??

You don't get it do you?

I get that you like to assume that all poor people vote PTP (or would if they could get home).

[Baerboxer]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

Resounding election victory? That's why they have to bribe rely on coalition partners. I doubt very much this flexing of muscle to intimidate a fairly sedatary bunch of protesters with red storm troopers has delivered a knockout blow to protests.

[Rich teacher]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

Resounding election victory? That's why they have to bribe rely on coalition partners. I doubt very much this flexing of muscle to intimidate a fairly sedatary bunch of protesters with red storm troopers has delivered a knockout blow to protests.

No they didn't need coalition partners they had an absolute majority. The coalition was formed by mutual agreement not coerced by the military.

[Baerboxer]

Considering most commentators agreed that Obama's recent victory was convincing we can definitely say PT's was resounding. Apart from the votes they got you can factor in those millions of red/PT supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that don't have the means to return to their village & vote &/or the nous to go to the government office and fill out a form to vote outside of their electorate.

And there are no Democrat supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that couldn't return home to vote??

You don't get it do you?

I get that you like to assume that all poor people vote PTP (or would if they could get home).

He like to assume all poor people would vote the way he thinks they should. Sell their vote for THB 500 to a corrupt clan of would be dictators.

[Baerboxer]

Round 1: amnesty attempt - failed. Round 2 constitution change attempt - failed. Round 3: Boonlert's rally - won.

So, the PTP are on the board but still 2-1 down. Plenty of rounds to go with the courts as the only referee.

Round 1: Resounding election victory. Knockout, end of fight.

Resounding election victory? That's why they have to bribe rely on coalition partners. I doubt very much this flexing of muscle to intimidate a fairly sedatary bunch of protesters with red storm troopers has delivered a knockout blow to protests.

No they didn't need coalition partners they had an absolute majority. The coalition was formed by mutual agreement not coerced by the military.

So why didn't they form a government on their own then?

[Rich teacher]

Considering most commentators agreed that Obama's recent victory was convincing we can definitely say PT's was resounding. Apart from the votes they got you can factor in those millions of red/PT supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that don't have the means to return to their village & vote &/or the nous to go to the government office and fill out a form to vote outside of their electorate.

And there are no Democrat supporters that live in Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket that couldn't return home to vote??

You don't get it do you?

I get that you like to assume that all poor people vote PTP (or would if they could get home).

I'm sure you are aware of the socio-economic breakdown of each parties voter base and the need for lower socio-economic groups from depressed areas to have higher geographical labour mobility.

[khunken]

Usual 'thinking' from one who thinks that an election is the be all & end all of democracy. Luckily there are a few checks & balances that Thaksin hasn't been able to prevent this time around.

Surely better than those who think that a government installed only as the result of the Army general's meddling was legitimate.

More propaganda. Any government taking power as a result of their parliamentary majority is legitimate under the Westminster system that exists in Thailand. The question of a government installed as a result of vote buying & red-shirt intimidation is of course legitimate. Hypocrisy rules in the land of the rich teachers.

[Rich teacher]

So why didn't they form a government on their own then?

Why should they?

[Rich teacher]

Usual 'thinking' from one who thinks that an election is the be all & end all of democracy. Luckily there are a few checks & balances that Thaksin hasn't been able to prevent this time around.

Surely better than those who think that a government installed only as the result of the Army general's meddling was legitimate.

More propaganda. Any government taking power as a result of their parliamentary majority is legitimate under the Westminster system that exists in Thailand. The question of a government installed as a result of vote buying & red-shirt intimidation is of course legitimate. Hypocrisy rules in the land of the rich teachers.

For those with persistent claims of vote buying could you please submit your evidence for scrutiny. And, 'my girlfriend's uncle said' really doesn't cut it.

PT asked for independent international observers to be allowed in for the election but the sitting government would not allow it.

[rubl]

So why didn't they form a government on their own then?

Why should they?

They could, but didn't because their thinker went on record saying that single party governments didn't work well in Thailand as his experience was.

[whybother]

I'm sure you are aware of the socio-economic breakdown of each parties voter base and the need for lower socio-economic groups from depressed areas to have higher geographical labour mobility.

Actually, I'm not aware of the socio-economic breakdown of each parties voter base. What I do know is that a majority of people from the North and North East (poor, middle class and rich) vote for PTP, and a majority of the people from the South (poor, middle class and rich) vote Democrat, and people from Bangkok and Central areas (poor, middle class and rich) are pretty much split down the middle.

[Baerboxer]

So why didn't they form a government on their own then?

Why should they?

Yes - they can do what they like - because they were democratically elected Let's see nepotism. cronyism, corruption, ignore laws, lie whenever it suits etc.

[whybother]

So why didn't they form a government on their own then?

Why should they?

The reason they didn't is because Ministers can't vote in parliament on some things. So they needed a coalition to make sure they had enough votes.

[Baerboxer]

Usual 'thinking' from one who thinks that an election is the be all & end all of democracy. Luckily there are a few checks & balances that Thaksin hasn't been able to prevent this time around.

Surely better than those who think that a government installed only as the result of the Army general's meddling was legitimate.

More propaganda. Any government taking power as a result of their parliamentary majority is legitimate under the Westminster system that exists in Thailand. The question of a government installed as a result of vote buying & red-shirt intimidation is of course legitimate. Hypocrisy rules in the land of the rich teachers.

For those with persistent claims of vote buying could you please submit your evidence for scrutiny. And, 'my girlfriend's uncle said' really doesn't cut it.

PT asked for independent international observers to be allowed in for the election but the sitting government would not allow it.

Of course there was no vote buying, no intimidation and the current freely and democratically elected government are delivering on all their promises to the electorate, whilst fighting corruption, inefficiency and ineffectiveness within government and civil service. Their record speaks for itself.

[rubl]

Usual 'thinking' from one who thinks that an election is the be all & end all of democracy. Luckily there are a few checks & balances that Thaksin hasn't been able to prevent this time around.

Surely better than those who think that a government installed only as the result of the Army general's meddling was legitimate.

More propaganda. Any government taking power as a result of their parliamentary majority is legitimate under the Westminster system that exists in Thailand. The question of a government installed as a result of vote buying & red-shirt intimidation is of course legitimate. Hypocrisy rules in the land of the rich teachers.

For those with persistent claims of vote buying could you please submit your evidence for scrutiny. And, 'my girlfriend's uncle said' really doesn't cut it.

PT asked for independent international observers to be allowed in for the election but the sitting government would not allow it.

Actually I think red-shirts asked and Dept. PM Suthep made some rather undiplomatic remarks. Also independently the UDD which was not involved in the election (as least not as separate political party) had their own observers to make sure nothing would go wrong

[whybother]

For those with persistent claims of vote buying could you please submit your evidence for scrutiny. And, 'my girlfriend's uncle said' really doesn't cut it.

PT asked for independent international observers to be allowed in for the election but the sitting government would not allow it.

http://thailand-busi...rs#.ULOZJeTqnzk

Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) Welcomes Foreign Observers

- Sat, Jul 2nd, 2011

Edited November 26, 2012 by whybother