23 Million Foreign Tourist Arrivals In Thailand In 2013

[chiangmaikelly]

Just wondering if there are enough hotels to accomidate these 23 million tourist? How many new hotels have been built in the last 3 or 4 years?

63,000 people per day. There are 30,000 rooms in downtown Bangkok alone.

Maybe ....but in a week there will be 448,000 people ,,,but there will still only be those 30,000 rooms .

So? 30,000 Bangkok and Pattaya, 20,000 Chiang Mai, and count all the other hotel rooms in Thailand. Lots of space.

[BirdsandBooze]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

[chiangmaikelly]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

[mancub]

Just wondering if there are enough hotels to accomidate these 23 million tourist? How many new hotels have been built in the last 3 or 4 years?

63,000 people per day. There are 30,000 rooms in downtown Bangkok alone.

Maybe ....but in a week there will be 448,000 people ,,,but there will still only be those 30,000 rooms .

So? 30,000 Bangkok and Pattaya, 20,000 Chiang Mai, and count all the other hotel rooms in Thailand. Lots of space.

So , let's not forget that the vast majority of these arrivals will come during the relatively short high season , so for 3-4 months of the year there will be maybe 5 x the number of tourists for the same number of rooms , which conversely will be empty for long periods .Lots of space . Not forgetting the domestic tourists ,of course .

[BirdsandBooze]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Do you work in the hotel trade?

[chiangmaikelly]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Do you work in the hotel trade?

Yes

[BirdsandBooze]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Do you work in the hotel trade?

Yes

Going by your comments I think it more likely you TESL

[Nisa]

And probably 22 million flying off from Thailand to other destinations. No tourists in Pattaya ( that is westerners ) and none up north, so where are they all hiding ????

Believe it or not most tourists/visitors don't come to Thailand to see the countries cesspool city or visit rice fields. Not to mention most farangs can't distinguish the country of origin of one Asian person or another.and it is Asians who make up the 4 out of 5 of the top countries visiting Thailand.

[mancub]

And probably 22 million flying off from Thailand to other destinations. No tourists in Pattaya ( that is westerners ) and none up north, so where are they all hiding ????

Believe it or not most tourists/visitors don't come to Thailand to see the countries cesspool city or visit rice fields. Not to mention most farangs can't distinguish the country of origin of one Asian person or another.and it is Asians who make up the 4 out of 5 of the top countries visiting Thailand.

Having taken my Thai wife to Singapore/Malaysia/Vietnam /Indonesia and Cambodia .....I could be tempted to say that most asians cannot distinquish the country of origin of other asians . In each of those countries she was repeatedly assumed to be a native .

[chiangmaikelly]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Do you work in the hotel trade?

Yes

Going by your comments I think it more likely you TESL

Is that an intended insult? Are TESL supposed to be ignorant? Are they supposed to think that your limited experience in one small city is determinant of the total tourism business in Thailand for the year 2013? Is that what you mean by your remark?

[Nisa]

And probably 22 million flying off from Thailand to other destinations. No tourists in Pattaya ( that is westerners ) and none up north, so where are they all hiding ????

Believe it or not most tourists/visitors don't come to Thailand to see the countries cesspool city or visit rice fields. Not to mention most farangs can't distinguish the country of origin of one Asian person or another.and it is Asians who make up the 4 out of 5 of the top countries visiting Thailand.

Having taken my Thai wife to Singapore/Malaysia/Vietnam /Indonesia and Cambodia .....I could be tempted to say that most asians cannot distinquish the country of origin of other asians . In each of those countries she was repeatedly assumed to be a native .

No doubt -- but my assumption was the poster I was responding to and the vast majority of TV posters are farangs.

[Nisa]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Not only that but somebody needs to tell all these folks, including the large international corporations, that continue to pour money into building these huge hotel complexes here.

[chiangmaikelly]

And probably 22 million flying off from Thailand to other destinations. No tourists in Pattaya ( that is westerners ) and none up north, so where are they all hiding ????

Believe it or not most tourists/visitors don't come to Thailand to see the countries cesspool city or visit rice fields. Not to mention most farangs can't distinguish the country of origin of one Asian person or another.and it is Asians who make up the 4 out of 5 of the top countries visiting Thailand.

Having taken my Thai wife to Singapore/Malaysia/Vietnam /Indonesia and Cambodia .....I could be tempted to say that most asians cannot distinquish the country of origin of other asians . In each of those countries she was repeatedly assumed to be a native .

No doubt -- but my assumption was the poster I was responding to and the vast majority of TV posters are farangs.

Your point was quote, "most farangs can't distinguish the country of origin of one Asian person or another.' Which is correct of course what you did not mention was most Asians can't either.

[chiangmaikelly]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Not only that but somebody needs to tell all these folks, including the large international corporations, that continue to pour money into building these huge hotel complexes here.

They just don't read the hotel experts and Asian business authorities that populate the hallowed posting halls of Thai Visa.

[Nisa]

Just wondering if there are enough hotels to accomidate these 23 million tourist? How many new hotels have been built in the last 3 or 4 years?

63,000 people per day. There are 30,000 rooms in downtown Bangkok alone.

Maybe ....but in a week there will be 448,000 people ,,,but there will still only be those 30,000 rooms .

So? 30,000 Bangkok and Pattaya, 20,000 Chiang Mai, and count all the other hotel rooms in Thailand. Lots of space.

The 30k in Bangkok also only represents those in downtown Bangkok and not sure they include the serviced apartments or the small back packer type places. Lets also not forget that of these visitors, they are not booking hotel alone and are traveling with family and/or are staying in condos or with friends in Thailand.

In downtown Bangkok alone the hotel projects in the pipeline now will provide an additional 28% more rooms in 2014 over 2012.

[mancub]

Asian visitors by country /numbers : 1 Japan , 2 Malaysia, 3 Korea ,4 China as of 2007 TAT website.

Judging by the number of Japanese- only/or orientated ( no pun intended) , karaoke bars ,massage parlours and go-go bars , I think a fair percentage of their tourists do actually make it to Pattaya .

I also wonder what percentage of Malaysians make quick repeat border runs to other less known Thai towns such as Danok /Sadao where they indulge in all manner of lewd activity not afforded them at home .

I"m not in a position to dispute "official" figures , but statistics can be presented in many ways.

[Nisa]

Asian visitors by country /numbers : 1 Japan , 2 Malaysia, 3 Korea ,4 China as of 2007 TAT website.

Judging by the number of Japanese- only/or orientated ( no pun intended) , karaoke bars ,massage parlours and go-go bars , I think a fair percentage of their tourists do actually make it to Pattaya .

I also wonder what percentage of Malaysians make quick repeat border runs to other less known Thai towns such as Danok /Sadao where they indulge in all manner of lewd activity not afforded them at home .

I"m not in a position to dispute "official" figures , but statistics can be presented in many ways.

The stats have changed a lot in the last years if I recall correctly. China is now number one followed by Malaysia and then Japan.

[soi41]

By the end of Nov 2012 arrivals of foreigners in Thailand was 19.8M, with Dec still ahead of us, a number of more than 21M arrivals are to be expected this year, so why is a 10% increase next year, so hard to believe?? As mentioned by other posters here, the visitors from western countries are NOT as important to Thailand, as we want to believe. In the 11 first months of this year, visitornumbers from China and Malaysia combined were higher than the numbers from the whole of Europe!

As for spending-power, at least the Asians coming to Hua Hin to play golf, are by no way Cheap Charlies. Play expensive courses, are good tippers and eat in the best restaurants. Guess it is time for us westeners to realise, that this is the century of Asia!

[WilliaminBKK]

I'm in the ChaAm/Hua Hin area this week doing hotel inspections for my wife, and the hotels I have visited and stayed at thus far have been nearly empty.

Well that settles it. Tourism in Thailand has stopped.

Not only that but somebody needs to tell all these folks, including the large international corporations, that continue to pour money into building these huge hotel complexes here.

Spot on.

When a brand decides to open a property either as a franchise or branded hotel there are investors, bankers, mega hoteliers, management firms all behind the scenes making educated decisions.

I believe folks like to pick on the TAT because it's part of their bash Thai routine, however they are the only body that has access to the data collected from landing cards, airport taxes collected, tax generated from hotels, load factors from airlines and some hotels do report occupancy. Sure we can argue if flight crews should count as overnight tourists or do you count infants and children, dual passport holders-don't count, visa runs and so on.

One of my concerns is how we in the industry put the spotlight on "Peak Season" and treat it as the only barometer. We take a sampling from peak season to gauge how healthy the market is a mistake IMO, I understand the hotelier/carrier yield improves and normally peak season income helps offset low season occupancy however by doing this it discounts the value of the Thai domestic market.

If you step back and look at the tour operators ABROAD they continue to support and package holidays to Thailand even with the vast majority of travellers nowadays booking direct ,they obviously see continued growth and demand or they would move on to the next destination to make money. Russians, Chinese, Koreans don't have the same mega access to content like travellers do in the West so the TAT focuses on those markets and tour ops to promote the country.

There are 12,000 hotels in Thailand (open for discussion licenced vs unlicenced) if these hotels aren't able to maintain their business they'd close, if the airlines couldn't keep 70% loads in peak and low season they'd pull out, do we see that ? NO. The hotels in Hua Hin may not be at 100% occupancy maybe just maybe those hotels have priced themselves out of the market, repeat travellers are not stupid.

There is supply and there is demand, all I do all day for the last 25 years is analyse bums in seats, Thailand is one of the healthiest markets I've ever come across.

Edit: spelling mistakes - must be tired

Edited December 12, 2012 by WilliaminBKK

[JulesMad]

Aha, now we know who smokes all the confiscated drugs, TAT and friends

23 million tourists! It is a big wet dream from TAT....

Only 1 response possible:

[lensta]

Here we go again,

[IBoldnewguy]

The problem I have with these misconstrued stats is that I've been researching prices to come to BKK for some dental work - if I try for right after Xmas the economy air fares are all in excess of US$2K. January they come down to $1.5K if you are willing to do multiple stops + 30 to 40 hrs from US. Plus the Hotel where I've previously stayed price is up 15% or so. So these stats are holding me, as a serious retired traveler, hostage. I'm sure there are others like me postponing because of inflated anticipated Holiday crowd prices; so I'm going to wait until January to see if deals are better. If not, one US traveler will not be dropping any fly-by cash in Thailand this year or next. My philosophy is no deals - no cash.

One of the hilarious experiences from previous trips is that I can buy my Thai souvenirs here in US at discount stores for pennies compared to inflated prices in BKK - Buddha statue in BKK 1000 baht plus - US $10 or less. I enjoyed the cultural differences and have some sweet memories of Thailand but the cultural conceit is exaggerated as compared to the actual experience.

[tingtongtourist]

I do remember reading this prediction before. Like last year they did predict 15 million tourist and whammo!! like magic 15 million tourist did come (according to them)

Same Same...in 1year+ time they will say YES 23 million tourist did come!

I have no doubt!

But if Somchai needs to get his promotion then he will announce this half way through next year that 23 million did come last year

words are easy!

[F4UCorsair]

Just wondering if there are enough hotels to accomidate these 23 million tourist? How many new hotels have been built in the last 3 or 4 years?

63,000 people per day. There are 30,000 rooms in downtown Bangkok alone.

Perhaps there are, but unless these people stay only one day, there are another 63,000 arriving the next day, and the next, so if one makes that assumption that a tourist to Bangkok stays in the capital for 5 days, there are 315,000 hotel rooms required. Let's assume that only 50,000 of the daily arrivals come to Bangkok initially, and stay 5 days, there are still 250,000 hotel rooms required on any day in the capital. I've never had any difficulty arriving without booked accommodation and had a huge choice of hotels, so I assume that not all hotels are full. The available rooms must be well beyond 250,000 in that case.

Whoever said that they don't all arrive through Suvarnabhumi, you are quite right, because they don't. Those arriving by land at border crossings would comprise a very small part of the total, and those arriving at other international airports in the country, an insignificant number compared with Bangkok, but still must be taken into account, hence the downgraded assumed figure of 50,000 above.

It seems inconceivable to me that 10 million tourists in 2010 could possibly become 23 million in 2013, but of course I may be wrong, and I'll be the first to admit it if so, and seek forgiveness from TV members.

Edited December 12, 2012 by F4UCorsair

[Kipperthai]

They did not mention the Indians....Pattaya is packed with them. Clearly quality tourists roaming Beach Rd. for the beautiful sea-views and gardens. PF :-)

& trying to take photos' of kids ...Do one!

[Nisa]

Just wondering if there are enough hotels to accomidate these 23 million tourist? How many new hotels have been built in the last 3 or 4 years?

63,000 people per day. There are 30,000 rooms in downtown Bangkok alone.

Perhaps there are, but unless these people stay only one day, there are another 63,000 arriving the next day, and the next, so if one makes that assumption that a tourist to Bangkok stays in the capital for 5 days, there are 315,000 hotel rooms required. Let's assume that only 50,000 of the daily arrivals come to Bangkok initially, and stay 5 days, there are still 250,000 hotel rooms required on any day in the capital.

Whoever said that they don't all arrive through Suvarnabhumi, you are quite right, because they don't. Those arriving by land at border crossings would comprise a very small part of the total, and those arriving at other international airports in the country, an insignificant number compared with Bangkok, but still must be taken into account, hence the downgraded assumed figure of 50,000 above.

It seems inconceivable to me that 10 million tourists in 2010 could possibly become 23 million in 2013, but of course I may be wrong.

Not only do a significant number of visitors use land borders but they also all don't all fly into Bangkok as Thailand has a number of International Airports. Not to mention a few other things including .... there was 16 Million visitors in 2010, each visitor doesn't mean they are traveling alone and require a single hotel room for each vistor and even though people fly into BKK it doesn't mean they are staying in Bangkok and certainly doesn't mean they spend their entire trip there nor do people just keep coming and coming without others leaving (checking out of a hotel)

2011 ..... 19,098,323 ..... +19.84 %

2010 ..... 15,936,400 ..... +12.63 %

2009 ..... 14,149,841 ..... -2.98 %

2008 ..... 14,584,220 ..... +0.83 %

2007 ..... 14,464,228 ..... +4.65 %

2006 ..... 13,821,802 ..... +20.01 %

2005 ..... 11,516,936 ..... -1.15%

2004 ..... 11,650,703

Edited December 12, 2012 by Nisa

[F4UCorsair]

23 million going once, twice....do I hear a 24 million estimate?....yes, yes, a new govt report now estimates 24 million....going once, twice,....yes, yes, we now have a 25 million estimate from a tourism group....hard telling where this guessing bidding will end. Note: these estimates are based on the assumption of a perfect world and the gullible.

Even 20 million tourists seems a bit far fetched. Here in the Pattaya area there is enough licensed accommodation to accommodate 30,000 tourists per day based on a room occupancy averaging two people to a room. Multiply 30,000 by 365 days in the year and we have 10.95 million tourists at the 100% occupancy rate. I know that Pattaya has never achieved a year round occupancy rate of 100%. It's More like 48%. However I think that in quintessentially ideal circumstances to 6 - 7 million might be achievable in 2013. I guess Phuket, Bangkok and the minor resorts will have to accommodate the remaining 17 - 19 million.

That's 10.95 million ONLY if they stay one day!! If they stay 5 days, it drops to 2.19 million. Assume that not all rooms are occupied by a single person (although i suspect in Pattaya there is a predominance of single males), but an average of 2, the the best figure you can come up with is 4.38 million.

Nisa said (in part), "nor do people just keep coming and coming without others leaving (checking out of a hotel)". I agree, they don't keep coming and coming, but there is a rolling total, and using 50,000 for five days, there would be 250,000 hotel rooms required in Bangkok alone, on any day. There may well be that number,, but it seems unlikely to me.

Edited December 12, 2012 by F4UCorsair

[Nisa]

Although it seems nonsensical to always question these numbers of visitors since the numbers have been broken down in the past by arrivals at airports & land crossing as well as per nationality ... it seems strange to start using math to calculate accuracy of the number of visitors when first of all, nobody even knows the number of hotel rooms in Thailand or is considering where folks are staying and how many people are staying per room.

According to the Thai Hotels Foundation back in 2010 there were 22 five-star hotels with a 10,279 rooms in total in just Bangkok and that didn't include any of the high end boutiques that had been going up everywhere. http://travel.cnn.com/bangkok/visit/luxury-hotels-bangkok-151432

Based on this, unless you are to believe there have been no hotels built since 2010 are there are no 1 Star hotels and that there are just as many 2, 3 and 4 star hotels as 5-star hotels then clearly there is significantly more than 30,000 hotel rooms in Bangkok.

Another interesting link with stats on monthly number of visitors and hotel occupancy which clearly would indicate there is significantly more hotels than people are using to make these calculations .... http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=624&language=ENG

[Nisa]

23 million going once, twice....do I hear a 24 million estimate?....yes, yes, a new govt report now estimates 24 million....going once, twice,....yes, yes, we now have a 25 million estimate from a tourism group....hard telling where this guessing bidding will end. Note: these estimates are based on the assumption of a perfect world and the gullible.

Even 20 million tourists seems a bit far fetched. Here in the Pattaya area there is enough licensed accommodation to accommodate 30,000 tourists per day based on a room occupancy averaging two people to a room. Multiply 30,000 by 365 days in the year and we have 10.95 million tourists at the 100% occupancy rate. I know that Pattaya has never achieved a year round occupancy rate of 100%. It's More like 48%. However I think that in quintessentially ideal circumstances to 6 - 7 million might be achievable in 2013. I guess Phuket, Bangkok and the minor resorts will have to accommodate the remaining 17 - 19 million.

That's 10.95 million ONLY if they stay one day!! If they stay 5 days, it drops to 2.19 million. Assume that not all rooms are occupied by a single person (although i suspect in Pattaya there is a predominance of single males), but an average of 2, the the best figure you can come up with is 4.38 million.

Nisa said (in part), "nor do people just keep coming and coming without others leaving (checking out of a hotel)". I agree, they don't keep coming and coming, but there is a rolling total, and using 50,000 for five days, there would be 250,000 hotel rooms required in Bangkok alone, on any day. There may well be that number,, but it seems unlikely to me.

Where is this math coming from? 50,000 a day would equal 18 Million plus a year which is just shy of the total visitors to Thailand who clearly don't all stay in Bangkok for 5-days. If you take 23 million and divide it by 365 (which is no accurate since there is hi and lo seasons) then the avg. number of visitors per day is 63,000. I suspect that only around 1/2 of these folks travel alone as many visitors come as families or bring their spouse or a traveling companion. Without discounting further for people who won't be staying at a hotel at all or for part of their stay and assuming a 9-day average stay then the total rooms needed in all of Thailand would be 280,000.

If there are just 10,000 5-star (as reported in 2010) hotel rooms in Bangkok then I would estimate, i think conservatively, (but could be way off) that there are 20,000 4-star hotel rooms and 35,000 3-star hotel rooms and another 35,000 2-star rooms for a total of 100,000 rooms in Bangkok alone assuming there are no 1-star hotels and we don't factor in serviced apartments, hostiles, timeshares and condos and houses available for short term rent.

Bottom line is it is a guessing game but lets say that the number of visitors are inflated by 20%, this still means 19-million visitors and there is no way the numbers can be much further off just based on numbers that are available for international visitors to airports and then considering the number of boarding nation's citizens that visit.

The bottom line is verifiable numbers such as airport arrivals back up the claims of increasing number of tourists / visitors and the same methodology to calculate foreign visitors is used each year. I just don't get why people are so adamant about trying to discount these figures which are accepted by the international community and international organizations who rely on them. The numbers are broken down not just by country of origin but mode of transportation and if they say X number of Russians arrive by air each year and this doesn't jive with the flights then I think somebody would point this out. Yes, the numbers are not going to be perfect and you can discount most Russians coming into Thailand by land crossing as not being true tourists but they are still hear,(possibly on a tourist visa) and are foreigners and are still spending their money in Thailand ... they may not be the typical tourist and more of a perpetual tourist but they are still a foreigner visiting Thailand despite if they are counted as 4 individual visits staying 3-months or 1 visitor staying 1-year.

[F4UCorsair]

I think your estimates/guesses that there are similar numbers of 4, 3, etc., star hotels is way off. The high end hotels have high rise buildings, and lesser star hotels generally are significantly smaller, many only a few floors and way less than 50 rooms.