Thai Govt's Alliance With Red Shirts Stuck On Shaky Ground

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Govt's alliance with red shirts stuck on shaky ground

Avudh Panananda

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Within the next few months, the government is slated to finalise its decision on the Bt300 billion high-speed train project linking Bangkok and Chiang Mai.

Later this year a number of mega-projects, particularly those related to flood control, are likely to move toward being implemented.

The signal is crystal clear - the government is confident it can manage the political risks to ensure stability needed to stay in power and get things done in the long-term.

According to her aides, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has already started planning for a second term.

Projects envisioned by former prime minister Thaksin might come to fruition under the leadership of his sister Yingluck.

Following years of volatility, the ruling Pheu Thai Party is suddenly enjoying political calm because the Shinawatra clan has put off its plan to bring Thaksin home.

Last month, Thaksin made it clear he was in no hurry to end his exile. The clan, including Thaksin's ex-wife Khunying Pojaman na Pombejra and his other sister Yaowapha Wongsawat, made an about-turn to delay his home-coming for the sake of stability.

The rush to push inflammatory issues such as a charter rewrite and an amnesty, designed to pave the way for Thaksin to elude his legal predicament, has been shelved.

But while the ruling party has toned down matters that would provoke the opposition, its alliance with the red shirts is curiously at a low ebb.

The red shirts have set this year as the time to push for an amnesty. Their leader Thida Thawornseth last week unveiled a draft decree on legal absolution for political violence between 2007 and 2011.

Deputy Commerce Minister Natthawut Saikua insisted he had kept the prime minister fully informed about the draft.

But Yingluck voiced puzzlement about such a draft. And Government House officials and the red shirts have not, for the past few weeks, been able to find a suitable date for Thida to present the draft to the prime minister.

The government has set sail to accomplish what it believes it is destined to do and left the red shirts in the lurch.

It remains to be seen whether the red shirts will retaliate or be pliant and cave-in.

Although the government has shifted its ground in order to boost stability, political friction still persists, but not to a degree to disrupt work.

One of the contentious issues is the border dispute near Cambodia's Preah Vihear Temple.

At this juncture, the government and security agencies are united in their approach to tackle the issue.

The patriotic movement, seen as close to the People's Alliance for Democracy, wants the government to explore other options than heeding the verdict of the International Court of Justice. But the movement has yet to sway sufficient support to make its voice heard.

So long as the armed forces rally behind the government, the issue will not spiral out of control even if the ICJ hands down an unfavourable decision for Thailand.

With Thaksin remaining in exile, Pheu Thai and the Democrats will have their ups and downs as usual. But the main opposition party may not have justification to oust the government.

Yingluck is likely to experience calm in steering the government.

But the catch is she will be obliged to appease the red shirts and ensure all her allies have equal access to the pie if she wants to prevent an implosion of her government.

-- The Nation 2013-01-22

[moe666]

The Red Shirts will get their just rewards, nothing. O forgot the leadership did get their millions.

Edited January 22, 2013 by moe666

[Locationthailand]

The reds can either make or break the Thai Govt but the loyalty to their leader is pretty much secure. A civilian army ready to strike at his beckon call. The Dems (or any other party) have no answer to this and reds have shown they are prepared to creative civil unrest at any time. Any govt, including this one, will always be walking on eggshells. Not a good way to run any country, being dictated to by the masses with threats such as these.

[Valentine]

As much as I would like to applaud PTP for actually governing by getting these projects up & running, the cynic in me suggests there will be plenty of icing on these large cakes. Applause will certainly come if they actually had the temerity to ensure jail time for corruption, including their own, & make people face true justice for crimes, no matter who they are, instead of having a never ending round of pay offs & court cases until everyone forgets about it.

[Moruya]

It remains to be seen which sub-groups protest this year and how the whole thing takes shape.

Whilst those getting a big rise to the new minimum wage may be happy, those who are made unemployed or who were on a similar salary already and received no increase due to budgets will feel miffed. The THAI dispute may be the tip of the iceberg for large firms and further strikes may become a feature acriss some industries. If that includes the electronics and car-making sectors, then things get interesting.

The Preah Viharn issue won't go away - the PAD and others will see to that. Does the PTP distance itself from the UN espoused bodies and bury its head in the sand or does it follow the ruling? It's difficult to on the one hand to send your legal team and minister to the hearings and then say that it doesn't recognise the court. Where does the red shirt request to the ICC now fit? It seems to have gone all quiet. Was that just a sham to keep the UDD happy that was followed up by the nonsensical DSI charges?

The "amnesty" nonsense is another one that won't go away. This is one that the red shirts will be most sensitive about. When the charges against the UDD leaders and lesser members start leading to serious convictions the heat will well and truly be on the PTP to resurrect the Charter change or some kind of amnesty bill and the Dems and Yellows won't let that go quietly.

The ridiculous rice scam is just building to a head. Either corruption, inability to continue housing the stock, deterioration of massive quantities of rice, WTO sanctions or the government breaking the law on expenditure will see to that. Other farmers such as sugar cane, rubber, tapioca will be seeking some form of equality at the table. Shrimp/prawn exports will be another area where the government may take a hit if the US decides to ban them.

Household debt, exacerbated by the recent car schemes, will bite in a different way in 2013. If unemployment does start to hurt the workforce coupled with high inflation then the haves and have-nots will be even further apart.

Thaksin is a one-club golfer. Pay your way into government, pay your way out of trouble. That only works when you have enough money to do so and with debt spiking at ridiculously high levels, that club is running out of sustainable steam.

[ggold]

There is always a lull before the sh**te hits the fan.

[billd766]

There is always a lull before the sh**te hits the fan.

Now must be the time to get into the umbrella market then.

[waza]

A lovers tiff may ensue

[Pimay1]

A lovers tiff may ensue

Could be but we have to wait for a response form the rocket scientist Thida.

[Ricardo]

But it is surely a marriage made in Dubai Heaven ?

[Moruya]

What kind of finance does Nattawut need to buy a million dollar home?

What kind of finance does Jatuporn need to send his kid to a 3/4 million baht per year school?

Socialists?

My posterior!

Mercenaries.

Are you watching Thida or sold your soul too?

[monkeycountry]

"But the catch is she will be obliged to appease the red shirts and ensure all her allies have equal access to the pie if she wants to prevent an implosion of her government."

Yingluck most likely does not have to appease anyone, especially not the red shirts. Come election time, the red shirts will still have to choose between the democrats or the PTP (or some insignificant parties), and no matter how upset they may be with PTP, they are not going to choose the democrats.

Personally I prefer the democrats, but if stuck with the PTP, at least I prefer to be stuck with a PTP who will forget about Thaksin and who will not give in to the ridiculous constant threats from the red shirt lemmings.