Thaksin Announcement

[TBWG]

Hi

Anyone have any views (stoopid question) on how Thaksin announcement might affect the Baht Rate?

TBWG

[Meerkat]

The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level.

Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI.

Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday.

NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book!

[haha]

The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level.

Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI.

Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday.

NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book!

my 2 cents...

it is about 11:30am in the morning right now here in bangkok. as I write this posting, I am watching nation tv where several thai folks including the general are doing an interview with sondhi and gang.

mind you, I don't know what they are talking about. but what I do see are some very serious faces.

[TBWG]

The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level.

Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI.

Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday.

NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book!

my 2 cents...

it is about 11:30am in the morning right now here in bangkok. as I write this posting, I am watching nation tv where several thai folks including the general are doing an interview with sondhi and gang.

mind you, I don't know what they are talking about. but what I do see are some very serious faces.

Thanks for input Meercat & Haha, surprised not more messages after all TV posters are a pretty self opinionated lot and normally like to have their 2 satangs worth!! Whether or not they know what they are talking about!!

TBWG

[Rinrada]

From Oanda over the last few days.........£-Bt

02/19/2006 68.55680

02/20/2006 68.560

02/21/2006 68.62640

02/22/2006 68.76480

02/23/2006 68.90490

02/24/2006 68.93030

02/25/2006 68.94780

...where next.........??

will it keep going up....

[penzman]

The markets initially seem to have welcomed the decision, with the SET closing above the important 740 support/resistance level.

Assuming that Thaksin will be re-elected with a smaller but still large majority I can only think it will be good for Thailand and the THB. I don't think the opposition is seen internationally as credible, and so with the TRT back in for another term, expect more foreign buyers of Thai stocks pushing up both the SET and the THB rate. Bear in mind that the SET is still the cheapest Asian market on a P/E basis - even cheaper than the Philippines (which is a joke). Not aware if one can short the PI market, but if it's possible, that would seem to be the logical cross; long Thai, short PI.

Having said that, I don't think we're talking about a huge jump - more a case of general buying on stability. I'll check how the Forward THB rates have changed when I'm back in the office on Monday.

NB I'm long, and have been long, the SET for a couple of years, so feel free to accuse me of talking up my own book!

my 2 cents...

it is about 11:30am in the morning right now here in bangkok. as I write this posting, I am watching nation tv where several thai folks including the general are doing an interview with sondhi and gang.

mind you, I don't know what they are talking about. but what I do see are some very serious faces.

Thanks for input Meercat & Haha, surprised not more messages after all TV posters are a pretty self opinionated lot and normally like to have their 2 satangs worth!! Whether or not they know what they are talking about!!

TBWG

The lack of replies kind of proves you wrong , no?