Potential Layoffs If Thai Baht Touches Bt27/ U S Dollar: Survey

[SGD]

If this trend continues there will be a mass rethink from westerners about staying on here. I know of a multitude that have gone for much cheaper accomodation, to keep the same living standards on spending.

Western holiday makers will stay for less days here, many now instead of a month have now dropped down to 14 days.

I am aware that there are many ways of bringing orgetting money changed, why not help others by dropping the charges down for ATM visa transactions.

There are thousands who cannot just go home-- because of money tied up in house- business-car-condo. and some are getting desperate.

Easy to say people should have made better plans, but if you have been here a long time plans are not always easliy to deal with.

And all the "clever" folk who forever babbled on about renting being better than owning who could have bought a very decent house or condo when GBP brought in 75 baht to the pound and are now faced with living in Stalag Nirun Condo to save enough for a few bottles in the sun.

[NongKhaiKid]

It'll certainly hit westerners that are on a pension. With nothing getting cheaper, only more expensive, and the baht getting stronger I know of 6 retirees that have already left for Phil.

With most walking out the door, exports being hit etc I wonder how much longer the Government will hold out before taking action - if they are capable of such a thing.

All the government does is talk about the situation and explain it's still not the time for action. Compare this to Japan where the Bank of Japan is right in there if the yen gets too strong.

[Mosha]

It'll certainly hit westerners that are on a pension. With nothing getting cheaper, only more expensive, and the baht getting stronger I know of 6 retirees that have already left for Phil.

With most walking out the door, exports being hit etc I wonder how much longer the Government will hold out before taking action - if they are capable of such a thing.

All the government does is talk about the situation and explain it's still not the time for action. Compare this to Japan where the Bank of Japan is right in there if the yen gets too strong.

They are waiting for someone to think, before they can do. (Thaksin thinks, PTP does).

Edited April 24, 2013 by Mosha

[bangkokburning]

Newsflash: Philippines is hugely more expensive than here, always was. But moreover, Peso now trading 41-2 to usd used to be 48, 52...so it has strengthened in paralell. USD is falling, these currencies rising less so. But hey, you can get a Jollybee burger and cheesy hot dogs.

Well, Thailand has decided to buy dollars stupidly. Would be far better to inflate its own currency and spend it on infastructure.

It better do something and fast. Buyers will return to agroculture but consumer goods - they will be gone.

[bangkokburning]

If this trend continues there will be a mass rethink from westerners about staying on here. I know of a multitude that have gone for much cheaper accomodation, to keep the same living standards on spending.

Western holiday makers will stay for less days here, many now instead of a month have now dropped down to 14 days.

I am aware that there are many ways of bringing orgetting money changed, why not help others by dropping the charges down for ATM visa transactions.

There are thousands who cannot just go home-- because of money tied up in house- business-car-condo. and some are getting desperate.

Easy to say people should have made better plans, but if you have been here a long time plans are not always easliy to deal with.

And all the "clever" folk who forever babbled on about renting being better than owning who could have bought a very decent house or condo when GBP brought in 75 baht to the pound and are now faced with living in Stalag Nirun Condo to save enough for a few bottles in the sun.

Bought a few condos to do what with? Cant rent em, cant sell em. Not to mention the loss you will.take when the bubble here dors burst. Why am I not seeing owning two condos in Pattaya as brilliance?

The only expats that will.have problems that cannot be dealt with are those stuck with property that cant sell or rent or living in a place they cant sell.and have a mortgage to service. Outside, external pressures.

For everyone else, change of lifestyle. Love it. If you cant or wont, it is bye-bye for you because beef and cheese and 24/7 ac and maids and wine - thats all out the window for many of you.

Now the realntruth and question comes...who.really wants to be here? Who loves Thailand.

In the end, everyone can hunker down. Cook at home, eat Thai food, drink a cheaper brand of Whiskey, take fewer holidays. If you have kids and a wife - Thais know all.about hard times. Keep Calm and eat lots of rice.

[Ricardo]

I myself am trying hard to restrain my family's spending here, as the Pound sinks ever-lower, for example this year we're spending much of the summer away from Thailand. Which doesn't help anyone in Thailand make extra money. I would imagine the same applies to other expats & tourists, who discover Thailand to be over-priced, compared to their previous visits.

If the government/BoT really wanted to boost the domestic economy, then they would stop all these fatuous announcements about monitoring-the-situation & considering-possible-actions, and just Get On With It, cut the interest-rates a bit and reduce the negative-impact of a strong-Baht on domestic growth.

But that would mean actually making a decision, as they're paid to do, and taking some responsibility. Never happen, will it ?

So as I say, I'm voting with my feet, and spending more of my money elsewhere, 'up to you me' !

It must also be a real concern. if they care at all, for anyone trying to sell-off the rice-mountain before it rots in the warehouses ! It won't be good enough, just to blame the foreigners, for their lack of understanding of 'Thai ways', and their unwillingness to pay way above market-rates for rice of increasingly-dubious quality.

[belg]

who would have this one seen comming... 300 baht minimumwage + low dollar and euor ...

but hey, thailand claims an almost 0% unemployment

it is not that tax payers money will go to unemployment for the lazy here... no it goes into the politicians bags that are never full

[NeverSure]

The Baht isn't appreciating it is still about the same against currencies that are not dropping like the OZ and NZ dollar.

It is only the drop in US, Jap and Euro currencies that make it look like it is going up..

That of course doesn't help those who are exporting to countries whose currencies have dropped or tourists and expats on fixed incomes from those countries.

OK then, the Thai Baht is only appreciating against the currencies of three out of the four largest economies in the world! Oh sorry, my mistake, its appreciated against the currency of China too, so its four out of four!

It isn't that simple. The major Western countries are in a currency war as a race to the bottom, and China is in the middle of it. All of those countries are holding the values of their currencies down with, among other things, historically low interest rates.

The reason is balance of payments. Everyone wants to be competitive with exports including China. China is hurting for exports right now and they are determined to keep their currency value low even though it hurts profits. At least it attempts to keep their people working, with a hope of even increasing exports.

This is where Thailand is missing it.

It's not a badge of honor to have a high currency value in the middle of a currency war with the major powers such as Australia, Canada, UK, US, China, etc.

The war is not to have a high currency value, it's to have a low one and be competitive and keep the engines running.

Why does anyone think you can't get any interest to speak of in banks in the major export countries? The countries don't want any inflow of foreign currencies. They want outflows. They want money sent from their country to suckers like Thailand.

As usual, Thailand has it bass ackwards and it will bite them if they don't lower interest rates, and make the baht less attractive, and less expensive.

(This is why I call all of the threads about the doom of the Western expat due to baht values BS. I'm predicting the doom of the baht if Thailand doesn't wake up. Big minimum wage to compete with other emerging markets, big interest rates costing businesses money, big interest rates attracting foreign currencies and driving the baht up and exports down... It's a recipe for disaster.)

[Thai at Heart]

The Baht isn't appreciating it is still about the same against currencies that are not dropping like the OZ and NZ dollar.

It is only the drop in US, Jap and Euro currencies that make it look like it is going up..

That of course doesn't help those who are exporting to countries whose currencies have dropped or tourists and expats on fixed incomes from those countries.

OK then, the Thai Baht is only appreciating against the currencies of three out of the four largest economies in the world! Oh sorry, my mistake, its appreciated against the currency of China too, so its four out of four!

It isn't that simple. The major Western countries are in a currency war as a race to the bottom, and China is in the middle of it. All of those countries are holding the values of their currencies down with, among other things, historically low interest rates.

The reason is balance of payments. Everyone wants to be competitive with exports including China. China is hurting for exports right now and they are determined to keep their currency value low even though it hurts profits. At least it attempts to keep their people working, with a hope of even increasing exports.

This is where Thailand is missing it.

It's not a badge of honor to have a high currency value in the middle of a currency war with the major powers such as Australia, Canada, UK, US, China, etc.

The war is not to have a high currency value, it's to have a low one and be competitive and keep the engines running.

Why does anyone think you can't get any interest to speak of in banks in the major export countries? The countries don't want any inflow of foreign currencies. They want outflows. They want money sent from their country to suckers like Thailand.

As usual, Thailand has it bass ackwards and it will bite them if they don't lower interest rates, and make the baht less attractive, and less expensive.

(This is why I call all of the threads about the doom of the Western expat due to baht values BS. I'm predicting the doom of the baht if Thailand doesn't wake up. Big minimum wage to compete with other emerging markets, big interest rates costing businesses money, big interest rates attracting foreign currencies and driving the baht up and exports down... It's a recipe for disaster.)

They need to find a way to reign in the borrowings being taken on by constructors. There is already a massive supply of property in many places, and even more planned and they don't want to create a massive property bubble like the did in 97.

I noticed that there was an article discussing a tightening of capital requirements for up country condo constructors for finance to be granted. Can't be a bad thing, but just look at downtown Sukhumvit and the beach resorts, the condo business has to be over supplied by now??

[Ricardo]

They need to find a way to reign in the borrowings being taken on by constructors. There is already a massive supply of property in many places, and even more planned and they don't want to create a massive property bubble like the did in 97.

I noticed that there was an article discussing a tightening of capital requirements for up country condo constructors for finance to be granted. Can't be a bad thing, but just look at downtown Sukhumvit and the beach resorts, the condo business has to be over supplied by now??

Perhaps an alternative way might be to raise taxes on the purchase of new properties, to reduce demand, and hopefully eventually supply too ?

But how to do it without causing less-well-financed construction-firms to collapse ? Not there are any here, of course.

Meanwhile cut interest-rates, and claim it's intended to boost the domestic-economy and help the poor, that might 'sell' it !

[h90]

What would Thailand expect when the major currencies such as Euro and USD are printing paper to pay debts?

I would expect them to do the same

[NeverSure]

The Baht isn't appreciating it is still about the same against currencies that are not dropping like the OZ and NZ dollar.

It is only the drop in US, Jap and Euro currencies that make it look like it is going up..

That of course doesn't help those who are exporting to countries whose currencies have dropped or tourists and expats on fixed incomes from those countries.

OK then, the Thai Baht is only appreciating against the currencies of three out of the four largest economies in the world! Oh sorry, my mistake, its appreciated against the currency of China too, so its four out of four!

It isn't that simple. The major Western countries are in a currency war as a race to the bottom, and China is in the middle of it. All of those countries are holding the values of their currencies down with, among other things, historically low interest rates.

The reason is balance of payments. Everyone wants to be competitive with exports including China. China is hurting for exports right now and they are determined to keep their currency value low even though it hurts profits. At least it attempts to keep their people working, with a hope of even increasing exports.

This is where Thailand is missing it.

It's not a badge of honor to have a high currency value in the middle of a currency war with the major powers such as Australia, Canada, UK, US, China, etc.

The war is not to have a high currency value, it's to have a low one and be competitive and keep the engines running.

Why does anyone think you can't get any interest to speak of in banks in the major export countries? The countries don't want any inflow of foreign currencies. They want outflows. They want money sent from their country to suckers like Thailand.

As usual, Thailand has it bass ackwards and it will bite them if they don't lower interest rates, and make the baht less attractive, and less expensive.

(This is why I call all of the threads about the doom of the Western expat due to baht values BS. I'm predicting the doom of the baht if Thailand doesn't wake up. Big minimum wage to compete with other emerging markets, big interest rates costing businesses money, big interest rates attracting foreign currencies and driving the baht up and exports down... It's a recipe for disaster.)

They need to find a way to reign in the borrowings being taken on by constructors. There is already a massive supply of property in many places, and even more planned and they don't want to create a massive property bubble like the did in 97.

I noticed that there was an article discussing a tightening of capital requirements for up country condo constructors for finance to be granted. Can't be a bad thing, but just look at downtown Sukhumvit and the beach resorts, the condo business has to be over supplied by now??

Good points. Thailand is getting itself between the rock and the hard place. There is a real estate bubble, there is massive oversupply at the same time prices are rising, and there isn't an easy way out.

You can't really raise interest rates to discourage borrowing to build more. That would also discourage the buying of the already empty ones. If you lower interest rates to encourage buying up the empty ones, you encourage building. Also, lowering interest rates can fuel inflation as more buying is done.

If they stop the building boom they could crash the real estate market. If they encourage the building boom, eventually the bubble pops anyway.

All of this has to be balanced against the rising baht which badly needs lower interest rates and lower foreign investment to lower its value, and keep exports alive. But lower interest rates fuel inflation and borrowing. Too much borrowing crashes the economy. Lower foreign investment slows the economy.

I have zero faith in the Thai economy which if I'm right is good news for expats, but bad news for the government and for locals.

Without going into the ripple effect of the slowdown in China and the West, and the struggles of Japan and N. Korea, I just totally lack the optimism (or pessimism depending on perspective) of most people I hear. But that was true in the US just before the recent real estate crash so it doesn't surprise me.

In a nutshell, the West is in a big enough slowdown that Asia can't escape it anyway, and their policies seem to have blindfolds that will make it worse.

Thailand is accepting everything that the major economies want to get rid of. That includes their currencies, buying baht. The baht is actually a dumping ground and Thailand doesn't see it.

[DRONGOH]

Good luck reigning in the foreign capital inflows...

Now that Thailand is off the money laundering black list...truckloads of new Russian and middle eastern cash will be arriving daily for laundering...

if they have any cash left after the Cyprus bust.

[Thai at Heart]

Inflation in Thailand is apparently 5 %, wages are up. Did any of these exporters try to increase their prices to their buyers.

Or are the products so crap they have no pricing power at all?

No the products are not crap. But they have no pricing power. Viet Nam population 84 million and a factory wage less than Thailand will happily supply foreign companies if Thailand cannot compete.

Of course, the irony of this statement is that Thai companies have been at the forefront of this move to Vietnam for several years.

http://english.vov.vn/Economy/Thai-garment-makers-to-move-to-Vietnam/236985.vov

Thai garment makers to move to Vietnam

Five Thai textile companies, Hong Seng Knitting Co, Hi-Tech Apparel Co, Nice Apparel Co, Liberty Garment Co, Golden Thai Industry Co, will move to Vietnam to benefit from the country’s low labour costs.

Vietnam has been a market for Thai companies because the country has faced labour shortages in the past.

[rotorbreeze]

That's a very interesting comment and perspective on the Thai Baht, can you share any other interesting opinions that you may have?

The new truck financed at a low rate of interest...now no payment due to layoffs..truck goes back to dealership...ops,,,Thailand can not have the choice of size of cake that it has cut...so the Thai baht will have to be lowered in exchange rate to US dollar simple! to be compatible with emerging markets in Asia...the big order of Boeing will make the USD stronger! Gold prices fall as European banks have to sell off their reserves to meet the actual value of their currency to world banks IMF. Just wait till the pillar of toothpicks built by the Thai families falls...ops some one opened the door..

[Berkshire]

That's a very interesting comment and perspective on the Thai Baht, can you share any other interesting opinions that you may have?

The new truck financed at a low rate of interest...now no payment due to layoffs..truck goes back to dealership...ops,,,Thailand can not have the choice of size of cake that it has cut...so the Thai baht will have to be lowered in exchange rate to US dollar simple! to be compatible with emerging markets in Asia...the big order of Boeing will make the USD stronger! Gold prices fall as European banks have to sell off their reserves to meet the actual value of their currency to world banks IMF. Just wait till the pillar of toothpicks built by the Thai families falls...ops some one opened the door..

Interestingly, Rotor, you sound a lot like the expat quoted in this article...http://notthenation.com/2013/04/stock-market-correction-delights-poorest-stupidest-expats/

[Eesat]

If this trend continues there will be a mass rethink from westerners about staying on here. I know of a multitude that have gone for much cheaper accomodation, to keep the same living standards on spending.

Western holiday makers will stay for less days here, many now instead of a month have now dropped down to 14 days.

I am aware that there are many ways of bringing orgetting money changed, why not help others by dropping the charges down for ATM visa transactions.

There are thousands who cannot just go home-- because of money tied up in house- business-car-condo. and some are getting desperate.

Easy to say people should have made better plans, but if you have been here a long time plans are not always easliy to deal with.

And all the "clever" folk who forever babbled on about renting being better than owning who could have bought a very decent house or condo when GBP brought in 75 baht to the pound and are now faced with living in Stalag Nirun Condo to save enough for a few bottles in the sun.

A house you're not allowed to own,that would have been very savvy wouldn't it?

[Thai at Heart]

That's a very interesting comment and perspective on the Thai Baht, can you share any other interesting opinions that you may have?

The new truck financed at a low rate of interest...now no payment due to layoffs..truck goes back to dealership...ops,,,Thailand can not have the choice of size of cake that it has cut...so the Thai baht will have to be lowered in exchange rate to US dollar simple! to be compatible with emerging markets in Asia...the big order of Boeing will make the USD stronger! Gold prices fall as European banks have to sell off their reserves to meet the actual value of their currency to world banks IMF. Just wait till the pillar of toothpicks built by the Thai families falls...ops some one opened the door..

Interestingly, Rotor, you sound a lot like the expat quoted in this article...http://notthenation.com/2013/04/stock-market-correction-delights-poorest-stupidest-expats/

Got to love Notthenation. It spouts more sense than the Nation and Thaivisa put together sometimes.

Edited April 24, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[jocko]

How did Thailand become successful in the first place not inc tourists?

[Publicus]

How did Thailand become successful in the first place not inc tourists?

Unrestrained and shameless lying, stealing, cheating, scamming. That's how.

[Thai at Heart]

Look, I can understand in the short run, everyone jumping around panicking about 27 to the USD if it effects your business personally.

The reality is, that the rest of the world's major currencies are absolutely in the poop, and they aren't going to get any stronger anytime soon, and Thailand and everyone here is going to have to get used to it. There is an avalanche of currency being pumped into the markets from everywhere, and what is little Thailand supposed to do? Be completely immune? Fight it with what? Thailand is but a spec in comparison with the USA, EU and Japanese printing money left right and centre.

[MaxLee]

Thailand is becoming the most expensive place in South East ASEAN

[dcutman]

Look, I can understand in the short run, everyone jumping around panicking about 27 to the USD if it effects your business personally.

The reality is, that the rest of the world's major currencies are absolutely in the poop, and they aren't going to get any stronger anytime soon, and Thailand and everyone here is going to have to get used to it. There is an avalanche of currency being pumped into the markets from everywhere, and what is little Thailand supposed to do? Be completely immune? Fight it with what? Thailand is but a spec in comparison with the USA, EU and Japanese printing money left right and centre.

Problem fixed

PM orders Finance Ministry, BoT to handle baht appreciation, seek measures to help exporters, seek new markets /MCOT

[Robby nz]

Robby nz, on 23 Apr 2013 - 18:37, said:

The Baht isn't appreciating it is still about the same against currencies that are not dropping like the OZ and NZ dollar.

It is only the drop in US, Jap and Euro currencies that make it look like it is going up..

That of course doesn't help those who are exporting to countries whose currencies have dropped or tourists and expats on fixed incomes from those countries.

Have some respect. The 2nd world war ended 70 years ago. Its Japanese currency.. Do you still call Germans krauts?

You Market trader may or may not have noticed that I abbreviated every nationality so if you think there was any disrespect meant then it must have been equal right?

Just looked at my bank site and the NZ$ is still very much the same against the Baht as it has been for some time 23.95 to the Baht, that being what I get when I make a transfer.

[jocko]

How did Thailand become successful in the first place not inc tourists?

Unrestrained and shameless lying, stealing, cheating, scamming. That's how.

Did'nt work for me, there must be another reason?

[IMHO]

It would appear intervention was started this afternoon: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1D

[Publicus]

How did Thailand become successful in the first place not inc tourists?

Unrestrained and shameless lying, stealing, cheating, scamming. That's how.

Did'nt work for me, there must be another reason?

Fraud?

How about greed and desire??

There are more reasons if you want 'em.

[jocko]

How did Thailand become successful in the first place not inc tourists?

Unrestrained and shameless lying, stealing, cheating, scamming. That's how.

Did'nt work for me, there must be another reason?

I was making a joke that your reason's above did'nt make me successfull.

I was wondering way back say since the Vietnam war how Thailand has become the place it is now who or what helped and for what reason.

Compared to Cambodia and Vietnam and surrounding countries.

[ginjag]

How did Thailand become successful in the first place not inc tourists?

Unrestrained and shameless lying, stealing, cheating, scamming. That's how.

Did'nt work for me, there must be another reason?

I was making a joke that your reason's above did'nt make me successfull.

I was wondering way back say since the Vietnam war how Thailand has become the place it is now who or what helped and for what reason.

Compared to Cambodia and Vietnam and surrounding countries.

Another reason is Thai airways from early days had flights to BKK, I remember I flew Thai 32 years ago, so to get here was more easy than the more troubled Burma-Vietnam-Cambodia--and had the proud name then as mainly unspoilt, And ( interesting) destination. especially for European Men-or westernern type.

[jimbeam1]

Went to the ATM today the 150 charge has increased to 180 baht

You have to do as I do, go to a ATM from AEON, you don't pay any fee!

Nor do you at Citibank.

But have you chaps checked the exchange rate they are giving you? Worth checking.

jb1