Thailand's consumer confidence worst in 9 months

[webfact]

Thailand's consumer confidence worst in 9 months
By English News



BANGKOK, Sept 6 – Confidence among Thai consumers in August plunged to its lowest level in nine months as the domestic political situation, the higher cost of living and a volatile global economy tempered Thailand’s economic outlook.

Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said today that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased for the fifth consecutive month in August to 79.3 – a drop from 80.3 in July and the worst since December.

The economic outlook is rather grim given the unstable political situation, the skyrocketing cost of living, higher priced cooking gas, expressway fees and electricity, and global economic volatility linked to the violence in Syria, he said.

Predicting reduced consumption and increased household debt in the fourth quarter, he called on the government to speed up budget spending, stimulate border trade and tourism.

He said the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting would lower the country’s economic growth from 4.0-4.5 per cent to 3.5-4.0 per cent, probably late this month.

Mr Thanawat said rubber farmers’ continued protests and the road blockade in the South have affected several business sectors and the damage was preliminarily estimated at Bt100-200 million a day.

If the government fails to end the conflict in a month, it would affect the overall economic growth by 0.1 per cent and the protests could possibly escalate to a political conflict, he said. (MCOT online news)


-- TNA 2013-09-06

[LuckyLew]

and it is going to get worse

not sure how people can complain about the cost of living ... minumum wage went up 30 baht a day

Keep it up PTP you are doing a great job

Not long before you fall behind burma and laos

[Ricardo]

Rising-prices, a technical-recession & many people not on the delayed-minimum-wage of B300/day, Moody's unhappy about the rice-scam finances & the government want to borrow B2.2-trillion + interest over 50-years, this is an outstanding economic-record for PTP and their absent-thinker !

Perhaps Khun Vatchari should have said, "It's just a perception that PTP are cr*p" ?

And now the voters are starting to notice ... whoopsie !

[bitterbatter]

Thai confidence is really going to be much much worse soon. Once bombs begin to drop in Syria, which it is looking very likely, a number of scenerios will play out and each will cause the price of petroleum to jump and that will effect price hikes in food, and nearly everything in a store. Most Thai's work directly or indirectly with agriculture, and every baht counts.

[bitterbatter]

CP has been behind keeping the value of the Baht low for a longtime. Their control as the world's leader in rice production has had a long run. They don't keep the Baht low for the sake of tourism, it's cheap labor. And the huge micro technology industry here has supported this as well. Thai people are taught in Buddhism to be softspoken, sharing and grateful for the basics in life, because living in Thailand offers good weather and can be enjoyable to even the poorest people. So Thai people havent' complained too much in the past. But you start hooking them on payment programs, selling them on bigger houses, more cars, etc. then you are in for changes and these things must balance themselves out, and this artificial Baht price control cannot hold out forever. The US financial controllers have pushed hard to maintain a devalued Baht because they have a partnership with Thailand has been predicated in helping extend and maintain, their reach in global food prices

Edited September 6, 2013 by bitterbatter

[AnotherOneAmerican]

CP has been behind keeping the value of the Baht low for a longtime. Their control as the world's leader in rice production has had a long run. They don't keep the Baht low for the sake of tourism, it's cheap labor. And the huge micro technology industry here has supported this as well. Thai people are taught in Buddhism to be softspoken, sharing and grateful for the basics in life, because living in Thailand offers good weather and can be enjoyable to even the poorest people. So Thai people havent' complained too much in the past. But you start hooking them on payment programs, selling them on bigger houses, more cars, etc. then you are in for changes and these things must balance themselves out, and this artificial Baht price control cannot hold out forever. The US financial controllers have pushed hard to maintain a devalued Baht because they have a partnership with Thailand has been predicated in helping extend and maintain, their reach in global food prices

The Baht is way overvalued, and falling fast.

So what you write is nonsense.

[bitterbatter]

CP has been behind keeping the value of the Baht low for a longtime. Their control as the world's leader in rice production has had a long run. They don't keep the Baht low for the sake of tourism, it's cheap labor. And the huge micro technology industry here has supported this as well. Thai people are taught in Buddhism to be softspoken, sharing and grateful for the basics in life, because living in Thailand offers good weather and can be enjoyable to even the poorest people. So Thai people havent' complained too much in the past. But you start hooking them on payment programs, selling them on bigger houses, more cars, etc. then you are in for changes and these things must balance themselves out, and this artificial Baht price control cannot hold out forever. The US financial controllers have pushed hard to maintain a devalued Baht because they have a partnership with Thailand has been predicated in helping extend and maintain, their reach in global food prices

The Baht is way overvalued, and falling fast.

So what you write is nonsense.

Simply calling anothers argument 'nonsense' is no way to debate a point. Anything said can only be speculation no matter if right or wrong. So I am trying to speculate and make sense of this, looking to learn other factors. You haven't done anything except repeating a conclusion you probably learned in papers or on tv shows which I haven't. So convince me... That is why I participate in these discussions on thaivisa, not so I can evoke emotionally charged reactions.

[carib102]

CP has been behind keeping the value of the Baht low for a longtime. Their control as the world's leader in rice production has had a long run. They don't keep the Baht low for the sake of tourism, it's cheap labor. And the huge micro technology industry here has supported this as well. Thai people are taught in Buddhism to be softspoken, sharing and grateful for the basics in life, because living in Thailand offers good weather and can be enjoyable to even the poorest people. So Thai people havent' complained too much in the past. But you start hooking them on payment programs, selling them on bigger houses, more cars, etc. then you are in for changes and these things must balance themselves out, and this artificial Baht price control cannot hold out forever. The US financial controllers have pushed hard to maintain a devalued Baht because they have a partnership with Thailand has been predicated in helping extend and maintain, their reach in global food prices

The Baht is way overvalued, and falling fast.

So what you write is nonsense.

Simply calling anothers argument 'nonsense' is no way to debate a point. Anything said can only be speculation no matter if right or wrong. So I am trying to speculate and make sense of this, looking to learn other factors. You haven't done anything except repeating a conclusion you probably learned in papers or on tv shows which I haven't. So convince me... That is why I participate in these discussions on thaivisa, not so I can evoke emotionally charged reactions.

What you've written is nonsense because the baht has not been kept low. In fact, it has been strengthening since mid-2004. As the below USD/THB monthly chart clearly shows the baht has appreciated (the falling line is representative of USD strength - falling line = stronger THB) significantly since mid-2004.

The good news for those of us who receive funds in USD is that the trend appears to have reversed. 32.00 was a major resistance point and the USD/THB has broken through and remained above this level. The next minor resistance is at 34.50 and I don't think it will prove troublesome in the least. Beyond that we are looking at 36.00 as the next stop off, and if we breach that level we could go all the way back to the highs of 42.00 seen in 2002 and 2004.

While I am sure that there is some manipulation that occurs to keep the THB at levels which the government believes are suitable, you shouldn't for a second believe that Thailand has any say in the matter if the U.S., Europe or Japan wishes to devalue or inflate their own currency. Sure the $172 billion is foreign reserves is a lot, but it is nothing compared to the weight that major world economies can bring to bear. Ask Turkey, India, Indonesia and Brazil how effective their foreign reserves have been in keeping their currencies stable against the current USD strength.

Edited September 6, 2013 by carib102

[puck2]

Rising-prices, a technical-recession & many people not on the delayed-minimum-wage of B300/day, Moody's unhappy about the rice-scam finances & the government want to borrow B2.2-trillion + interest over 50-years, this is an outstanding economic-record for PTP and their absent-thinker !

Perhaps Khun Vatchari should have said, "It's just a perception that PTP are cr*p" ?

And now the voters are starting to notice ... whoopsie !

Really? Some cash into the voters' hands on the election day, and they will have memory problems.

[GeorgeO]

BANGKOK: -- Growing Public anger over the rising cost of living is leading to unusual developments at the Commerce Ministry, which is tasked with maintaining domestic price stability. The ministry's permanent secretary Vatchari Vimooktayon stated "It's just a perception that goods are expensive".

Two official reports made the same day with two different views! Does anyone know what's happening???

I suspect that this has something to do with the CEBF being a non-governmental institute, whereas the Commerce Ministry is a PTP body. I know which one I prefer to believe....

[jmccarty]

Not good for Vatchari Vimooktayon next election! Is Commerce Secretary voted in by the people or appointed by the PM or someone else?

Just noticed, Khun Vatchari is a Permanent Secretary! Good to be Khun Vatchari!

Edited September 6, 2013 by jmccarty

[johnnie20110]

Confidence among Thai consumers in August plunged to its lowest level in nine months as the domestic political situation, the higher cost of living and a volatile global economy tempered Thailand’s economic outlook.

Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said today

Thanawat should be expecting a visit from the DSI very shortly as his statements are clearly defamatory towards the government.

[Calimotty]

Thai confidence is really going to be much much worse soon. Once bombs begin to drop in Syria, which it is looking very likely, a number of scenerios will play out and each will cause the price of petroleum to jump and that will effect price hikes in food, and nearly everything in a store. Most Thai's work directly or indirectly with agriculture, and every baht counts.

Eat a lot of dates do you?

[Calimotty]

Confidence among Thai consumers in August plunged to its lowest level in nine months as the domestic political situation, the higher cost of living and a volatile global economy tempered Thailand’s economic outlook.

Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said today

Thanawat should be expecting a visit from the DSI very shortly as his statements are clearly defamatory towards the government.

Wow with a title like that he couldn't be anything less than a High Sci puppet. He'll be polishing a new Ferrari with tears soon ,same as the rest of them.

[hellodolly]

BANGKOK: -- Growing Public anger over the rising cost of living is leading to unusual developments at the Commerce Ministry, which is tasked with maintaining domestic price stability. The ministry's permanent secretary Vatchari Vimooktayon stated "It's just a perception that goods are expensive".

Two official reports made the same day with two different views! Does anyone know what's happening???

Not since Yingluck and her clone were elected by the minority of the voters.

[hellodolly]

CP has been behind keeping the value of the Baht low for a longtime. Their control as the world's leader in rice production has had a long run. They don't keep the Baht low for the sake of tourism, it's cheap labor. And the huge micro technology industry here has supported this as well. Thai people are taught in Buddhism to be softspoken, sharing and grateful for the basics in life, because living in Thailand offers good weather and can be enjoyable to even the poorest people. So Thai people havent' complained too much in the past. But you start hooking them on payment programs, selling them on bigger houses, more cars, etc. then you are in for changes and these things must balance themselves out, and this artificial Baht price control cannot hold out forever. The US financial controllers have pushed hard to maintain a devalued Baht because they have a partnership with Thailand has been predicated in helping extend and maintain, their reach in global food prices

The Baht is way overvalued, and falling fast.

So what you write is nonsense.

Simply calling anothers argument 'nonsense' is no way to debate a point. Anything said can only be speculation no matter if right or wrong. So I am trying to speculate and make sense of this, looking to learn other factors. You haven't done anything except repeating a conclusion you probably learned in papers or on tv shows which I haven't. So convince me... That is why I participate in these discussions on thaivisa, not so I can evoke emotionally charged reactions.

You will find that many of the posters are like my self no real information. Just knowledge that it used to be more Baht for what ever the currency they are using was. I would like to see the value go down for a personal reason more money in my pocket. But as for what it is really worth I have no idea. I believe that all countries in a way have influence on their money but in the big picture they are where they are because that is a result of their previous and current actions. Or other countries are just get there money to be worth more.

I am not an old timer here but I think if you find some they can remember when the American dollar was a lot lower than we have seen it in the last five years.

[pistachios]

I don't really get how you can forecast 4% growth when the first semester was in recession, is there anything that would suggest the economy bounces back in the second half of the year?

[johnnie20110]

Confidence among Thai consumers in August plunged to its lowest level in nine months as the domestic political situation, the higher cost of living and a volatile global economy tempered Thailand’s economic outlook.

Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said today

Thanawat should be expecting a visit from the DSI very shortly as his statements are clearly defamatory towards the government.

Wow with a title like that he couldn't be anything less than a High Sci puppet. He'll be polishing a new Ferrari with tears soon ,same as the rest of them.

Two minutes of googling would lead to quite a different impression than what your quick-fired post presents.

Perhaps Thanawat might be available for English tutoring to help you in your future posts. Additionally, he might also be able to show you how to do a modicum of research with a simple search engine.

[carib102]

I don't really get how you can forecast 4% growth when the first semester was in recession, is there anything that would suggest the economy bounces back in the second half of the year?

Not that I can see. Reap as ye sow.

[lenna00]

walked into the local convenience store and the young female thai owner/manager ask me if i wanted to be her teerak in front of another obviously good customer and her own staff.

things must be tough! me being not young farang with no face value.

Edited September 6, 2013 by lenna00

[lenna00]

i've updated my profile to give you a better understanding of the situation,

[MaiChai]

walked into the local convenience store and the young female thai owner/manager ask me if i wanted to be her teerak in front of another obviously good customer and her own staff.

things must be tough! me being not young farang with no face value.

Many Thais would like to leave Thailand and go and live abroad. For all the reasons TVF members moan about. The Thais are not stupid; they know what is happening to their country.

[lenna00]

walked into the local convenience store and the young female thai owner/manager ask me if i wanted to be her teerak in front of another obviously good customer and her own staff.

things must be tough! me being not young farang with no face value.

Many Thais would like to leave Thailand and go and live abroad. For all the reasons TVF members moan about. The Thais are not stupid; they know what is happening to their country.

thanks for that. can place the pieces together now for that being her possible reason.

did just smiled it off so no connection.