Thai editorial: 'Improved' govt-military ties face crucial test

[webfact]

EDITORIAL
'Improved' govt-military ties face crucial test
The Nation



Upcoming military reshuffles will say a lot about Thailand's political future

BANGKOK: -- Relations between the Pheu Thai government and the military are approaching another crunch time as the annual Armed Forces reshuffle draws nearer. Optimists, in other words those who do not predict any "political accident" happening, are seeing good signs, not least in the apparent warming of ties between Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the military's top brass. Pessimists say the "prelude" can be deceptive, and the real measure of "peaceful coexistence" can only be seen from the final reshuffle list, which has yet to be announced.

Both camps have good viewpoints. For the optimists, Yingluck, who also serves as the defence minister, has won an unprecedented degree of military trust. Budget-wise, her government has seemed able to satisfy the military. And, perhaps most importantly, it would take extremely bold, if not reckless, generals to try to overthrow the government by force today. The 2006 coup has provided plenty of lessons, and the economic risks at the time of the last takeover were not even as prominent as now.

For the pessimists, Thai politics is dictated by vested interests and not much else. This means that better bonds, bigger budgets and the world economy may not figure that much if the generals feel threatened by a loss of leverage. There are a few positions in the military that the Armed Forces leadership and the Pheu Thai camp have to agree on. Those appointments will determine if the current "balance" holds, or if it will be tilted in Pheu Thai's favour, in which case tensions may rise quite precipitously.

The military chieftains have declared time and again that coups are now "obsolete". Such an affirmation, however, means little as Thai political history proves. The Pheu Thai camp realises this, but that is not necessarily a good thing. Mistrust only breeds mistrust. To try to contain the military out of lingering mistrust can only amplify any ill feelings both camps may still have. To try to pre-empt a putsch, Pheu Thai can end up provoking the generals.

It's like walking a tightrope. The political mindset is that, in a democracy, an elected government should be able to do whatever it wants where the military is concerned. Thai political realities have seen democratic ideals go out of the window when elected representatives "meddled" too much with the Armed Forces. Thai politics is far from mature. The military is not mature enough to accept elected politicians as its bosses. Likewise, elected politicians are not mature enough to avoid using the Armed Forces as their own power base.

It's hard enough under normal circumstances, but Thai political complexities have made it a lot harder. This is why the upcoming military rotation carries great significance. Both sides don't need to be told that they must strive to reach a compromise, but their perceived "stakes" may make any real concessions hard to materialise. The government would want to set the stage for greater control of the Armed Forces next year when more hard-core generals reach retirement, but the current military powers would want to make sure a sound foundation is laid down for the people it approves of.

Nepotism will unavoidably be at play. So, it will be a matter of containing it for the greater good. A government-military clash over positions and promotions can produce disastrous consequences, and it will be bad for the nation as a whole, no matter whom we condemn.


-- The Nation 2013-09-09

[lee b]

Just do what needs to be done

[Tatsujin]

Just do what needs to be done

Which is . . . ?

[tominbkk]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

[jaidam]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

Agree. I liken the current political situation to being locked in the jailhouse shower unit with the biggest, meanest rapist in the joint. Instead of running around screaming and prolonging the agony, far better to lube up, bend over and hope it goes quickly.

There is no alternative to a successive Shinawatra family dictatorship so let's roll over and take it like men.

[noitom]

Another Thai reshuffle. Moved around just in time to avoid any accountability. The Thai reshuffle system. They think Thai people and the entire outside world are fools. We know what a reshuffle really is all about. Shame on the newspaper for denying the reprehensible policy of Thai reshuffles.

[bigbamboo]

Women in charge of the military never really works does it.

There was Boadicea I suppose but even she screwed up.

[Ianatlarge]

Boadiceayeah, but points for trying.

Here is my advice on the Thai military, it should be abolished, and replaced with a militia, one designed to act as a defence force. There is an English political aphorism that a standing army is an invitation to tyranny. I concur.

[hellodolly]

Not sure if the military is really worried about what will happen. Their Minister of defense is clueless as to Military matters and is generally out of the country shopping. When in country the only pressing item for the military is the Deep south and she pretty well avoids that leaving the military to their own devices.

Lets face it we have a lame duck Minister of Defense.

[JoeThePoster]

It's like walking a tightrope.

Gotta admit though, it's on of the best acts in a circus. Draws the crowds and cash.

[Baerboxer]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

Agree. I liken the current political situation to being locked in the jailhouse shower unit with the biggest, meanest rapist in the joint. Instead of running around screaming and prolonging the agony, far better to lube up, bend over and hope it goes quickly.

There is no alternative to a successive Shinawatra family dictatorship so let's roll over and take it like men.

I hope you are wrong. But, if the Shin clan do succeed in creating their own dynastic dictatorship, then at least we farangs can go home when the "inevitable" happens and take our families with us. Pitty the people who will have to live under the yoke of a criminal gang bent on extortion, plunder, despotic power and ruination.

Certainly looks like the military are no longer a threat, the police and law agencies under total control and the opposition inept. I guess they learned from their previous mistakes.

Edited September 9, 2013 by Baerboxer

[Baerboxer]

Boadiceayeah, but points for trying. Here is my advice on the Thai military, it should be abolished, and replaced with a militia, one designed to act as a defence force. There is an English political aphorism that a standing army is an invitation to tyranny. I concur.

Boudica - aka Boadicea = No points for you being an incorrect smart arse !

Your historical knowledge is marginally worse than your advice.

Militia - yeah right. People's Militias and we can all call one another "Citizen" or "Comrade".

[AleG]

Funny, I don't hear the noises from a certain quarter about back room deals in military barracks this time...

[NongKhaiKid]

Does this new found improved ties mean the government and military have stopped viewing each other with suspicion ? Highly unlikely i would think.

Let's wait and see how Mt. T moves the pieces on the military chess board to cement full control.

[hellodolly]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

Agree. I liken the current political situation to being locked in the jailhouse shower unit with the biggest, meanest rapist in the joint. Instead of running around screaming and prolonging the agony, far better to lube up, bend over and hope it goes quickly.

There is no alternative to a successive Shinawatra family dictatorship so let's roll over and take it like men.

I hope you are wrong. But, if the Shin clan do succeed in creating their own dynastic dictatorship, then at least we farangs can go home when the "inevitable" happens and take our families with us. Pitty the people who will have to live under the yoke of a criminal gang bent on extortion, plunder, despotic power and ruination.

Certainly looks like the military are no longer a threat, the police and law agencies under total control and the opposition inept. I guess they learned from their previous mistakes.

I hear it all the time but I do not understand it. Why if Thaksin becomes a bonafied dictator will I on my retirement pension have to leave the country.

I hear it a lot that they do not want us here yet I do not experience that in my day to day life. In fact here in Chiang Mai half the Movies are in English. Is that telling some one they are not wanted here.

Can some one explain this to me? I am not joking I really want to know. Why do I a monetarily contributing member of society with out taking any money what so ever out of it have to leave.

My country would not allow me to bring my wife. It is not that easy to get a Thai into the states unless you have big money or she has things in Thailand that she would have to come back for. Canada is worse. there are other countries that are easier to get a Thai into but I am not a citizen of them.

[Mampara]

Boadiceayeah, but points for trying. Here is my advice on the Thai military, it should be abolished, and replaced with a militia, one designed to act as a defence force. There is an English political aphorism that a standing army is an invitation to tyranny. I concur.

What about abolishing the military and giving the job to "Rent a Mob" they seem to get a lot of mission accomplishments.

[TackyToo]

There are countries where it is simply irrelevant who becomes a general in which position. People there think a powerful force under weapons is of good use for defending the country from invaders and not to mingle in politics and become a constant threat to the outcome of elections and overthrow governments- they call that system Democracy.

[h90]

Just do what needs to be done

Which is . . . ?

hand out some millions for these not promoted and the top brass.

Collect some millions from these promoted.

[siampolee]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

Now that would be an interesting scenario !!

Women in charge of the military never really works does it.

[siampolee]

Militia - yeah right. People's Militias and we can all call one another "Citizen" or "Comrade".

I think you'll find that the Red Shirt movement currently fills that slot. Well for the time being anyway until their usefulness to Thaksin and his family and their brown nosing acolytes runs out runs out. Or of course too many requests for some more crumbs from the puppet masters table power wise or financially

[Tatsujin]

Just do what needs to be done

Which is . . . ?

hand out some millions for these not promoted and the top brass.

Collect some millions from these promoted.

I was rather hoping lee b would enlighten us with his thoughts on what needs to be done.

[ridkun]

There are countries where it is simply irrelevant who becomes a general in which position. People there think a powerful force under weapons is of good use for defending the country from invaders and not to mingle in politics and become a constant threat to the outcome of elections and overthrow governments- they call that system Democracy.

The big problem is, the military was the one who gave birth to democracy in Thailand. People didn't know shit about democracy at the time, and they thought the Constitution was the name of the son of a coup's leader who became the PM.

[Pimay1]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

Agree. I liken the current political situation to being locked in the jailhouse shower unit with the biggest, meanest rapist in the joint. Instead of running around screaming and prolonging the agony, far better to lube up, bend over and hope it goes quickly.

There is no alternative to a successive Shinawatra family dictatorship so let's roll over and take it like men.

I hope you are wrong. But, if the Shin clan do succeed in creating their own dynastic dictatorship, then at least we farangs can go home when the "inevitable" happens and take our families with us. Pitty the people who will have to live under the yoke of a criminal gang bent on extortion, plunder, despotic power and ruination.

Certainly looks like the military are no longer a threat, the police and law agencies under total control and the opposition inept. I guess they learned from their previous mistakes.

I hear it all the time but I do not understand it. Why if Thaksin becomes a bonafied dictator will I on my retirement pension have to leave the country.

I hear it a lot that they do not want us here yet I do not experience that in my day to day life. In fact here in Chiang Mai half the Movies are in English. Is that telling some one they are not wanted here.

Can some one explain this to me? I am not joking I really want to know. Why do I a monetarily contributing member of society with out taking any money what so ever out of it have to leave.

My country would not allow me to bring my wife. It is not that easy to get a Thai into the states unless you have big money or she has things in Thailand that she would have to come back for. Canada is worse. there are other countries that are easier to get a Thai into but I am not a citizen of them.

I don't really understand the reasoning behind these posts either Dolly. I'm retired and meet the qualifications for the retirement visa so what's the issue? Of course I don't approve of some of the things that are going on but the same applies to my home country. So what if Thaksin comes back and sets up his dynasty as long as the visa rules are not changed to where I don't qualify. Whose to say if I moved to another Asian country the same thing wouldn't happen there? I've been here too many years to take all this political nonsense seriously.

[hellodolly]

There are countries where it is simply irrelevant who becomes a general in which position. People there think a powerful force under weapons is of good use for defending the country from invaders and not to mingle in politics and become a constant threat to the outcome of elections and overthrow governments- they call that system Democracy.

Care to go into detail how the Army influenced the election of the clone's.

[Jim walker]

I am sure the Privy Council has already done the reshuffle and it will just be a case of passing it on to the PM to read out in parliament, no arguments and job done.

Edited September 11, 2013 by metisdead
Font set to default forum font and bold font removed.

[hellodolly]

Agree. I liken the current political situation to being locked in the jailhouse shower unit with the biggest, meanest rapist in the joint. Instead of running around screaming and prolonging the agony, far better to lube up, bend over and hope it goes quickly.

There is no alternative to a successive Shinawatra family dictatorship so let's roll over and take it like men.

I hope you are wrong. But, if the Shin clan do succeed in creating their own dynastic dictatorship, then at least we farangs can go home when the "inevitable" happens and take our families with us. Pitty the people who will have to live under the yoke of a criminal gang bent on extortion, plunder, despotic power and ruination.

Certainly looks like the military are no longer a threat, the police and law agencies under total control and the opposition inept. I guess they learned from their previous mistakes.

I hear it all the time but I do not understand it. Why if Thaksin becomes a bonafied dictator will I on my retirement pension have to leave the country.

I hear it a lot that they do not want us here yet I do not experience that in my day to day life. In fact here in Chiang Mai half the Movies are in English. Is that telling some one they are not wanted here.

Can some one explain this to me? I am not joking I really want to know. Why do I a monetarily contributing member of society with out taking any money what so ever out of it have to leave.

My country would not allow me to bring my wife. It is not that easy to get a Thai into the states unless you have big money or she has things in Thailand that she would have to come back for. Canada is worse. there are other countries that are easier to get a Thai into but I am not a citizen of them.

I don't really understand the reasoning behind these posts either Dolly. I'm retired and meet the qualifications for the retirement visa so what's the issue? Of course I don't approve of some of the things that are going on but the same applies to my home country. So what if Thaksin comes back and sets up his dynasty as long as the visa rules are not changed to where I don't qualify. Whose to say if I moved to another Asian country the same thing wouldn't happen there? I've been here too many years to take all this political nonsense seriously.

Agreed

I was hoping to hear from the proffers of doom for the reasons I would be run out of the country. Maybe if they seize all of Thai Visa and go through the posts then locate me they would ask me to leave. I havened been exactly nice in my thoughts and words of them and their actions. On the other hand I have been snarley at times with the Thai bashers.

[kimamey]

Appoint Thaksin's son as supreme commander.

Agree. I liken the current political situation to being locked in the jailhouse shower unit with the biggest, meanest rapist in the joint. Instead of running around screaming and prolonging the agony, far better to lube up, bend over and hope it goes quickly.

There is no alternative to a successive Shinawatra family dictatorship so let's roll over and take it like men.

I hope you are wrong. But, if the Shin clan do succeed in creating their own dynastic dictatorship, then at least we farangs can go home when the "inevitable" happens and take our families with us. Pitty the people who will have to live under the yoke of a criminal gang bent on extortion, plunder, despotic power and ruination.

Certainly looks like the military are no longer a threat, the police and law agencies under total control and the opposition inept. I guess they learned from their previous mistakes.

I hear it all the time but I do not understand it. Why if Thaksin becomes a bonafied dictator will I on my retirement pension have to leave the country.

I hear it a lot that they do not want us here yet I do not experience that in my day to day life. In fact here in Chiang Mai half the Movies are in English. Is that telling some one they are not wanted here.

Can some one explain this to me? I am not joking I really want to know. Why do I a monetarily contributing member of society with out taking any money what so ever out of it have to leave.

My country would not allow me to bring my wife. It is not that easy to get a Thai into the states unless you have big money or she has things in Thailand that she would have to come back for. Canada is worse. there are other countries that are easier to get a Thai into but I am not a citizen of them.

It's possible we may not be wanted for various reasons which may out weigh our usefulness but it isn't certain. What you say that is certain is that we won't all be able to take our families back to our home countries.

[HoudiniXLogic]

"Budget-wise, her government has seemed able to satisfy the military."

That pretty much sums up the relationship between the government and the military.

[NCC1701A]

nobody is going anywhere... The IMF calls the shots here... that is what aircraft carriers are for... just keep spreading the debt...

[backtonormal]

Its like trying to tell a story but not tell a story. Truth is the army have run the country for decades answering to nobody without money on the table. How they achieved that means you will have to check your Thai history. They are not stupid but they can see the broader picture and whats going to unfold in front of them...and from where they are standing its not pretty.

The army realises how powerful Thaksin is going to become, now Thaksin is a lightweight. When he really is ''the man' (and before you say it I dont mean being a president) the army better have made the right choice because most importantly the army wants its nose where it has been for decades...firmly entrenched in the trough.

Those that do have some idea about Thailand will undertand what I am saying...those that dont keep on ranting