Amnesty push makes political conflict more likely: Thailand

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BURNING ISSUE
Amnesty push makes political conflict more likely
Samudcha Hoonsara
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- OCTOBER HAS seen important political changes in the past - notably, a student-led uprising in 1973 and a massacre of protesters at Thammasat University in 1976.

This year, a new round of political conflict is simmering after the House committee vetting the amnesty bill revised the draft that passed the first reading in the House of Representatives.

The change would grant amnesty to all people involved in the political conflicts of the recent past, as well as those whose court cases stemmed from the coup of September 19, |2006 that brought down the government of Thaksin Shinawatra.

Critics view this move as benefiting former prime minister Thaksin. But MPs from the ruling Pheu Thai Party in the vetting committee insisted that Thaksin would not get his seized assets back. In February 2010, the Supreme Court found that the ex-leader had abused his power and caused his family business to be worth an extra Bt46 billion when it was sold to a Singaporean company during his term in office.

The opposition Democrat Party had warned that a new law would be written to benefit a particular person. In fact, those benefiting from the amnesty law would also include the Democrats, who were in power during the unrest of 2010, and the military, which was involved in dispersal of the red-shirt protest in that year.

It appears the "big boss", who is Pheu Thai's patriarch, wants the political conflict to be "reset to zero".

And politicians in the ruling party are going at full steam to make his wish come true. Key figures in the ruling party seem, without doubt, to have got the go-ahead from the Shinawatra family, which is believed to have influence over Pheu Thai.

The red shirts, who are the main supporters of Thaksin and the ruling party, have split over the issue.

Some want blanket amnesty to be granted but others oppose it. A number of red-shirt figures have threatened to withdraw their support from Pheu Thai, but it is unlikely they will join the ruling party's political enemies in a move to bring down the government.

It is not a good idea for Pheu Thai to go back on its word. Earlier, politicians from the ruling party said the amnesty bill, proposed by red-shirt leader and Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema, would mainly benefit ordinary protesters, and that protest leaders and government leaders would not be given amnesty.

Although Pheu Thai is likely to push for a law for blanket amnesty sooner or later, the time now is not right for the ruling party to make this move. The government of Yingluck Shinawatra has been through a bad time - its popularity is decreasing and many of its showcase projects have been heavily criticised.

Also, a verdict by the International Court of Justice next month in the Preah Vihear Temple dispute with Cambodia may attract a lot of anti-government protesters if it is not in the interest of Thailand.

Pheu Thai seems to be cooking up its own trouble by adding this amnesty issue to the government's long list of problems.

Many groups of anti-government protesters have already gathered at different locations in Bangkok. The amnesty issue would only give them another reason to protest.

It appears Pheu Thai is not afraid of a decline in popularity due to the amnesty law. Many key figures in the ruling party are confident Pheu Thai would win an election and return to power if there were a need to dissolve the House of Representatives. This government has already been in power for more than two years and it would not mind going to the polls at mid-term.

However, what the politicians in power should be aware of is that by pushing hard for blanket amnesty, they are pushing the country towards a new round of political conflict. This year marks the 40th anniversary of the October 14 uprising in 1973, which saw many lives lost. There was further loss of life in subsequent conflicts, such as those in 1992 and in 2010.

If Pheu Thai continues to push for blanket amnesty for the big boss without heeding any opposition voices, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past - something that could be avoided, if politicians in power were not so stubborn.


-- The Nation 2013-11-01

[CelticBhoy]

It's November.

[NongKhaiKid]

It's November.

Probably a minor point to an investigative journalist who, with a reprted 10,000 protestors out yesterday and the police saying it's only the beginning, decides political conflict is likely.

I wish i had such insight.

[Curt1591]

What they out to try is cooperation or a change; conflict is the norm.

[JulesMad]

There are many things I want "reset to zero".

Mostly bad debts and relationships