What are the reasons that led military junta to start democratic reforms?

[danphuket]

What do you think?

[AloisAmrein]

Money

[gregk0543]

The present leader President Thein Sein is the first smart ruler of the country in the last 60 years and both has the power, vision, and foresight to make this happen. He has also been able to play this diplomatically without offsiding the army.

It was not the sanctions which only kept the dictators in power longer by impoverishing the nation and making it easier to stay in power.

It was not Aung San Su Kyi. She would have been a better force for change from outside the country.

She has played a masterly bad hand for many years and although she has a moral right and support of the people she did not exercise her abilities correctly.

Ignorant rulers have ruled with fear for years. The army got to the point where 99% of them knew the system was ridiculous but the fear was such that none could act. Many have been put in prison along the way who stood up to that fear but just could not get over the last hurdle.

So this is my opinion from someone who has lived here over the last 33 years. I have seen it all and known for all that time that the change would have to come from someone with vision in the army.

[Costas2008]

So they can start arguing as to when and if they should have elections.....should they postpone the day of elections.....are the people good enough to vote..... and so many other nice things.

[pmh2009]

There are numerous critical reasons for change but the main one is for their survival. Meaning if their system of oppression for wealth in the long run all end up as Marcos, Allende, Mubarak and the rest of the global dictators, being tried and imprisoned. Than Shwe was a truly clever person he found out even the previous dictator Gen. Ne Win by his (Than Shwe) doing had a pauper's funeral. His daughter, 3 grandsons were all imprisoned by him. So the only way out was to give some form of democracy to the people in order to take the heat off him. And that was what he did. Gave a incomplete democracy which the next government should occupied for amendments, revisions and etc. But he did form a special committee which would be able to take back power should the sovereignty & security of Myanmar was threatened, that committee was chaired by the Myanmar military general six of them.

One crucial question remaining was "How much did they take of the country's wealth?" In all honesty no one will really know the correct answer but slowly slowly as time goes by it is starting to emerge. http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/military-leases-seized-ngapali-beach-land-hotel-developers.html

They took all the best land/real estate!... Anyone, company, corporation... who now wishes to lease land find that they are in the now dealing with the old/previous regime.

So the main reason was for survival but they took the best from the country ... "LAND" which no money, ideas can never ever create or recreate!

[HannahD]

It appears to me that the Burmese military realized that they had two choices: open up to the outside world or be completely taken over by their neighbor China who already controlled a great deal of Burma and would ultimately make Burma just another returned breakaway province of China. (The Kublai Khan sent armies into what is now Burma starting in 1277.)

The only way to open up to the outside world was to get the removal of sanctions and the only way to get a removal of sanctions was to grant a degree of political freedom to the people. Faced with a choice of granting some political freedom or takeover by China the Burmese military chose the more palatable alternative.

[danphuket]

There are numerous critical reasons for change but the main one is for their survival. Meaning if their system of oppression for wealth in the long run all end up as Marcos, Allende, Mubarak and the rest of the global dictators, being tried and imprisoned. Than Shwe was a truly clever person he found out even the previous dictator Gen. Ne Win by his (Than Shwe) doing had a pauper's funeral. His daughter, 3 grandsons were all imprisoned by him. So the only way out was to give some form of democracy to the people in order to take the heat off him. And that was what he did. Gave a incomplete democracy which the next government should occupied for amendments, revisions and etc. But he did form a special committee which would be able to take back power should the sovereignty & security of Myanmar was threatened, that committee was chaired by the Myanmar military general six of them.

One crucial question remaining was "How much did they take of the country's wealth?" In all honesty no one will really know the correct answer but slowly slowly as time goes by it is starting to emerge. http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/military-leases-seized-ngapali-beach-land-hotel-developers.html

They took all the best land/real estate!... Anyone, company, corporation... who now wishes to lease land find that they are in the now dealing with the old/previous regime.

So the main reason was for survival but they took the best from the country ... "LAND" which no money, ideas can never ever create or recreate!

On the other hand you have North Korea still holding its stance.

Before democratic movements did they have a chance to spend their money abroad? Were they allowed to travel or send their children to study abroad?

I don't believe that brass sincerely cares about well-being of the nation. They must have their own "family" or "survival" interests in this.

(IMHO) Greed, fear, thoughts about their children's future, or a combination of all these factors must have been driving factors...

There are really many problems with this country. Only 65% speak Burmese, military rule with incompetent officials, corruption one of the worst in the world, undemocratic constitution that is not going to change most probably, ethnic insurgencies, unreasonably high property prices.

I am not well informed in either Thai history or Myanmar history, but are there any similarities?

[gregk0543]

As said in the thread Than Schway set up an exit strategy that would hopefully ensure that he did not spend his retirement under house arrest and for his family to lose its wealth.

But he had no more vision than that really.

You have to remember that these people are very much uneducated and unworldly and have been brought up in a culture that does not praise or reward critical thinking and is foolishly superstitious. You cannot begin to understand the foolishness of Myanmar politics without understanding superstition of the elite.

So these guys believe a lot of their own propaganda. And they are more superstitious than you can imagine.

And the things that have lead to this go way back to before the British ruled.

Difference between Thailand and Burma politically is that Burmese Kings did not embrace western education and thought too highly of themselves. They always feared being overthrown and killed off those relatives close to being able to usurp them. In contrast in Thailand the royal family sent relatives (princes) overseas to study.

The present King of Thailand has a degree in Agricultural Science from the USA. This is the last step in that process begun a long while back that maintained Thai sovereignty.

You can not underestimate the difference the education of the elite has on a country.

Thein Sein is probably the best educated of all the leaders in Myanmar in the last 60 years.

[bob41]

Young burmese people representing 50% of the population...

They can diktat old people but they can't handle the energy of youth

[jaloochapurr]

The camps are still on border.

There still is forced labor.

American oil interests over power sanctions always.

The pipe line thailand to china is the most important.

[muffy]

Western money $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ , that is the ONLY reason .

[Balboo]

Myanmar was almost Bailout after the Nargis Cyclone, they needed foreign money.

[mitsubishi]

They were running out of cash and needed a tourist injection to boost the economy. That and they know the appetite for communism is wanning, they want a bite out of the capitalist apple!

[phazey]

Are you the Alaskan guy ? I think we met.

[Tomtomtom69]

The present leader President Thein Sein is the first smart ruler of the country in the last 60 years and both has the power, vision, and foresight to make this happen. He has also been able to play this diplomatically without offsiding the army.

It was not the sanctions which only kept the dictators in power longer by impoverishing the nation and making it easier to stay in power.

It was not Aung San Su Kyi. She would have been a better force for change from outside the country.

She has played a masterly bad hand for many years and although she has a moral right and support of the people she did not exercise her abilities correctly.

Ignorant rulers have ruled with fear for years. The army got to the point where 99% of them knew the system was ridiculous but the fear was such that none could act. Many have been put in prison along the way who stood up to that fear but just could not get over the last hurdle.

So this is my opinion from someone who has lived here over the last 33 years. I have seen it all and known for all that time that the change would have to come from someone with vision in the army.

How did you manage to live in Myanmar through the toughest times, like back in the 1980s? I thought all foreigners were kicked out back then, but I could be wrong...

[Tomtomtom69]

It appears to me that the Burmese military realized that they had two choices: open up to the outside world or be completely taken over by their neighbor China who already controlled a great deal of Burma and would ultimately make Burma just another returned breakaway province of China. (The Kublai Khan sent armies into what is now Burma starting in 1277.)

The only way to open up to the outside world was to get the removal of sanctions and the only way to get a removal of sanctions was to grant a degree of political freedom to the people. Faced with a choice of granting some political freedom or takeover by China the Burmese military chose the more palatable alternative.

That's the view I've come to believe too. Basically Myanmar opened up because it didn't want to be closed off on the one hand, but on the other hand continue to allow China access to all it's resources, which have destroyed local communities and would all be siphoned off to China and thus not give any advantages or income back to the local community. Perhaps it was all these things and a dangerous simmering of tensions brewing in the local community against the Chinese that started this reform process and opening up of the country. Examples include the attacks of Chinese workers by local Burmese at the sites of projects such as the Myitsone Dam project in Kachin state and others, such as mining concessions, mainly in the north where the Chinese workers were assumed to have started the fight, and were subsequently fined and deported but the Burmese workers received no punishment.