Reason the baht is rising.

[i claudius]

I was just watching Bloomberg and a flash came up that the baht was at its highest since oct ,the reason ,the protests have not been as succusfull as planed,and have not caused much disruption. you think?

[zeichen]

I am kind of confused because I think that the value of the Baht has been declining. It has been a steady 30 for 2 years and now since Sept. has jumped up to 32+ to the dollar.

So, what currency are you comparing it to?

[Scottythai]

Indeed. I have not looked at todays prices but I think its on a steady decline. Unless today it spiked

[besth]

I haven't looked, but if that is the case it is simply because I was paid something in Euros again

It happens every time there is an unexplained change of trend on the Baht exchange rate.

Even by chance you would expect I might get a mid to high rate once in a while. Been years

since that happened!

[chiang mai]

You were 16 minutes too early in your post, THB just fell, actually, GBP strengthened but the picture is the same, back to 54+, Bloomberg, pfff!

[wordchild]

this is just nonsense; the baht has been weak for most of the last 2/3 months and is down something like 5.5% against the dollar since october 32.85 (now) agst c31 average for the month of october. And thats from Bloombergs own data.

[kotsak]

Last 3 months and last 5 days, compared to USD

[aTomsLife]

It's a non-story. The baht had its strongest week since October, but in no way were the gains significant, and it doesn't represent a reverse back to 30 to the dollar. If anything, that the last week has been its strongest showing demonstrates just how much pressure the baht's been under these last few months. Since breaking 33 last week, it's now at 32.869.

None of the issues driving the baht's decline have been solved. The political situation continues to grow more tense. Weren't bombs detonated today? Give me a break.

There's a downward trend at present, but that still doesn't mean there won't be short-term gains. Nothing goes straight down. The market is organic and there are always people betting on a bottom, which is what helps cause these momentary fluctuations.

[Thai at Heart]

The bot would be being very irresponsible if it wasn't intervening a little bit to mitigate the effects of the protests.

[i claudius]

It was against the pound i was comparing it to ,but i just noticed the pound has gone back up against the dollar and has regained a bit against the baht ,it was the fact they said that the protests were not as sucesfull as planned was the thing i thought odd.

[zeichen]

no the reason is because the Pound got weaker.

There is no relevance to what was reported and actually goes against most logic. Most foreign media don't have a clue what is going on in Thailand.

Thaksin is a man of and for the people and the true voice of democracy according to every foreign media service.

[wym]

Some people think that the baht going from 30 to 33 means a stronger baht rather than a weaker one.

The current price reflects worldwide traders PERCEPTION not reality, so if before they thought civil war might break out and know they know it's just a PR exercise, that will be a factor in favor of a stronger baht.

And the Thai government - like all governments - have learned that any resources they throw into trying to counteract global trading opinion, may as well be tossed into the deep blue sea.

Best they can do is smooth out the bumps a little.

Other than acting as responsible manager of their currency and financial banking sector.

Exceptions are those govenments large and powerful enough to commit outright fraud on the world markets for decades at a time, and Thailand is not in that club.

[Loptr]

Sorry, I stopped reading when you cited Bloomberg as your source.

[Prbkk]

Much of the political/economic stuff is already priced into the market, hence the lower Baht. The Baht has strengthened a bit in the past few sessions (possibly on the belief that the worst of the protests are over...that script might need to be reconsidered). A lower Baht would be welcomed ( within reason) by the govt as it tries to boost exports/tourism, constrain imports.

I can't see a collapse but could see modest decline Baht/USD. The big loser is the AUD....smashed overnight on bad employment data. Just my thoughts, I'm very often wrong

[i claudius]

The British economy seems much better of late and the figures for sales over the christmas period were far better than expected ,car production at a level not seen since the 70s ,yet the pound has fallen a little against the baht ,strange.

[Lancelot]

The baht was over sold, most likely a temporary rally on the way to further weakening. The Central Bank of Thailand has cut interest rate twice recently, from 2.5% to 2%. Over all the Thai economy is slowing and, with foreign central banks slowing the rate of money creation (bond repurchases) I would think that that the Thai Baht will continue to weaken.

Just my SWAG (Simple Wild Assed Guess )

We will know for sure in about six months

[Suradit69]

not been as succusfull as planed

Not as violent (at least a few days ago) as expected.

Exchange rates have many variables (apparently, just like spelling) and usually positing simple reasons for their change is ... umm ... simplistic. Outside of Thailand the baht is one of the more thinly traded currencies. Minor events, rumors, speculation can magnify changes on a short-term basis, although as several people have said, versus most currencies the baht has been declining the past few months.

I wonder how many threads are going to run concurrently on this topic.

[mikebell]

It was against the pound i was comparing it to ,but i just noticed the pound has gone back up against the dollar and has regained a bit against the baht ,it was the fact they said that the protests were not as sucesfull as planned was the thing i thought odd.

I had £5k to change. On Xmas Day I would have got 261,780 baht. I watched and waited taking note each day am & pm. Decided Shut -Down BKK Day would be good. I got 266,297. Today I would get 260 ish. Suthep for PM!

[shaurene]

If it has risen the Bank of Thailand could have bought a big chunk of Thai Bht with it's US$ holdings to ease the drop in the Thai Baht.

[whiteman]

The kiwi has got much stronger v the bhat.

I think 27 is the best it has been in my 10 years here and it is 27 today as I type so yes the bhat is dropping

[thailiketoo]

Sorry, I stopped reading when you cited Bloomberg as your source.

What channel do you suggest?

[oTwoPies]

It has been a steady 30 for 2 years and now since Sept. has jumped up to 32+ to the dollar.

...steady 30 for two years??

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=2Y

How on earth do you work that one out?

Methinks "Cloud Cuckoo Land" springs to mind....

[EBlair48]

Rising ? More like dropping value. The real question is why was it valued so high last year ? Spiking at 27 - $ 1 USD at one point.

Who stood to gain by moving out massive funds would be a good second question.

Whenever there is political unrest , the value will drop , it regained a bit over last week when the protests were peaceful, bet it will drop again soon if more violence occurs.

[chiang mai]

Rising ? More like dropping value. The real question is why was it valued so high last year ? Spiking at 27 - $ 1 USD at one point.

Who sotod to gain by moving out massive funds would be a good second question.

Whenever there is political unrest , the value will drop , it regained a bit over last week when the protests were peaceful, bet it will drop again soon if more violence occurs.

Please do expand on this theory that large amounts of cash were being moved around!

[EBlair48]

I don't have access to Thai bank customer's personal info to offer concrete evidence of such a theory.

( Nor accounts in Dubai, hint- hint )

Perhaps you have other explanations of why it went so high, so briefly, remembering this is Thailand where anti trust is the norm.

[chiang mai]

I don't have access to Thai bank customer's personal info to offer concrete evidence of such a theory.

( Nor accounts in Dubai, hint- hint )

Perhaps you have other explanations of why it went so high, so briefly, remembering this is Thailand where anti trust is the norm.

You do understand that THB is a closed currency that can't really be traded outside of Thailand.

[EBlair48]

^ Of course. You do realize the value would only be in exchanging it for other currencies -as in sending it out of the country in a money transfer.

27 baht = 1 USD dollar a few months ago for a brief period.

today approx 32 = 1 dollar.

Exchanging baht for dollar at 27 instead of 33 mean less baht = more dollar

I really cannot explain it any more simply.

[EBlair48]

Sorry, I stopped reading when you cited Bloomberg as your source.

Does Bloomberg publish false currency rates?

[Naam]

I don't have access to Thai bank customer's personal info to offer concrete evidence of such a theory.

( Nor accounts in Dubai, hint- hint )

Perhaps you have other explanations of why it went so high, so briefly, remembering this is Thailand where anti trust is the norm.

You do understand that THB is a closed currency that can't really be traded outside of Thailand.

presenting facts is a futile attempt. the resident eggsburts will insist on manipulation and/or conspiracy no matter whether the Baht strengthens or weakens. the problem is that most of these eggsburts lack even the bare minimum knowledge and experience in financial matters which are beyond ATM fees and basic interest rates of THB and their home currencies. three dozen relevant eggsburts postings per week are evidence for my claim.

[i claudius]

I don't have access to Thai bank customer's personal info to offer concrete evidence of such a theory.

( Nor accounts in Dubai, hint- hint )

Perhaps you have other explanations of why it went so high, so briefly, remembering this is Thailand where anti trust is the norm.

You do understand that THB is a closed currency that can't really be traded outside of Thailand.

presenting facts is a futile attempt. the resident eggsburts will insist on manipulation and/or conspiracy no matter whether the Baht strengthens or weakens. the problem is that most of these eggsburts lack even the bare minimum knowledge and experience in financial matters which are beyond ATM fees and basic interest rates of THB and their home currencies. three dozen relevant eggsburts postings per week are evidence for my claim.

But Naam ,your our regular eggsburt are you not