Time to buy Thai stocks?

[ExpatJ]

Buffet- buy when everyone is fearful, sell when every one is greedy

Is now the time to buy thai stocks at bargain , oversold, prices?

I think i will wait until next Tuesday then (assuming minimum violence) buy into some upcoming 'blue chip' growth stocks that have dividend payments in feb/march - LPN 4.2%, HMPRO 3.4%

Any thoughts?

[tingtong]

Buffett would say: there isnt nearly enough fear in Thailand right now.

Things arent bright, but not yet gloom and doom either.

[eeeya]

My fingers on the buy button, but ive found no reason to buy yet. Yes its cheap but compared to what.

gut says buy, but thats just the thrill of gambling trying to get out of me.

ill wait

[SheungWan]

I would regard neither of those two companies as blue chip solid.

[JesseFrank]

Buffet- buy when everyone is fearful, sell when every one is greedy

Everyone assumes that Buffett’s decision to buy Berkshire Hathaway was a typical Buffett stroke of genius. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Buffett later called the move a “200-billion-dollar mistake.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2013/05/08/the-worst-investment-of-warren-buffetts-career/

Even Warren Buffett makes mistakes. Sometimes, it's as simple as shoes that don't quite fit.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/03/01/us-berkshire-buffett-failure-idUSN2921504820080301

Edited January 30, 2014 by JesseFrank

[ExpatJ]

I would regard neither of those two companies as blue chip solid.

I applied the 'CAN SLIM' criteria for picking stocks - and came up with about 8-10 Thai stocks that meet the criteria - LPN, HMPRO just about made it on to the list. The idea is that ill buy LPN ,HMPRO next week, hope other investors buy into them for the dividend payments in a few weeks time- then ill sell just before the XD date or get the dividend and wait hoping that money flows back to SET (when i have made this 'dividend' play in the past i normally sell day before XD date so its a 1-4 week trade).

Edited January 30, 2014 by ExpatJ

[NBD]

Wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse before it gets better. Thailand has been growing for years without a shock, and the political situation is more of deadlock than a catastrophe.

I'll throw my adventurous money in if/when there's a coup or major upheaval and the SET drops 10-15% in a single hit.

[ExpatJ]

Wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse before it gets better. Thailand has been growing for years without a shock, and the political situation is more of deadlock than a catastrophe.

I'll throw my adventurous money in if/when there's a coup or major upheaval and the SET drops 10-15% in a single hit.

This is also a sound plan i think. Upheaval over the weekend, if any, may make this happen on Monday morning. So wait and see..

[SheungWan]

Wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse before it gets better. Thailand has been growing for years without a shock, and the political situation is more of deadlock than a catastrophe.

I'll throw my adventurous money in if/when there's a coup or major upheaval and the SET drops 10-15% in a single hit.

The SET moved relatively little immediately after the coup in 2006, so no precedent there, so your 10-15% might have been plucked out of thin air.

[Asiantravel]

Wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse before it gets better. Thailand has been growing for years without a shock, and the political situation is more of deadlock than a catastrophe.

I'll throw my adventurous money in if/when there's a coup or major upheaval and the SET drops 10-15% in a single hit.

The SET moved relatively little immediately after the coup in 2006, so no precedent there, so your 10-15% might have been plucked out of thin air.

but in 2006 Thailand didnt have public debt that totalled 5.39 trillion baht

[Naam]

Wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse before it gets better. Thailand has been growing for years without a shock, and the political situation is more of deadlock than a catastrophe.

I'll throw my adventurous money in if/when there's a coup or major upheaval and the SET drops 10-15% in a single hit.

The SET moved relatively little immediately after the coup in 2006, so no precedent there, so your 10-15% might have been plucked out of thin air.

but in 2006 Thailand didnt have public debt that totalled 5.39 trillion baht

according to the CIA factbook Thailand's total public debt (2012) was 45.7% of GDP. most governments of industrialised countries would jump with joy if their public debt would be that low.

[isawasnake]

I personally like the idea of buying now, and buying if it does happen to drop 10 more percent. If your time horizon is at or above the 5 years range, I think it is a good bet. If not then I would just not even buy myself, just stick it in a bank. To each their own as they say

[Oscar2]

i've been looking to buy as well. but it seems there is no need to run out today and buy; rather wait and see what unfolds in the next days. the market does seem to be in a downward trend.

what do the TV Thai stock market experts think?

[isawasnake]

I think if we see the SET get too 1100 or so, it would be a great time to buy. But, if it doesn't go that low, now could be the time. That is why I suggest buying now and if it drops. It usually isn't a great idea to put all your money it at any one point in time anyway (unless you happen to time the bottom ).

[elgordo38]

When I look at wages here and 9 out 10 cars being new I have a hard time agreeing with the public debt being at 47.9% in 2012

[NBD]

When I look at wages here and 9 out 10 cars being new I have a hard time agreeing with the public debt being at 47.9% in 2012

That would be private debt - "public" debt is government debt.

[wordchild]

UBS put out a strategy piece today suggesting Thai equities are close to buying levels, they suggest waiting till next week however. ADVANC is their top pick.

FWIW my own feeling is that its much too early; to me the market looks just ok with (maybe) a few cheap stocks (having been somewhat overheated last year) and I find most people to be quite sanguine about the protests and the likely resulting economic damage. Sentiment is not nearly bad enough (IMO) for this to be a great buying opportunity.

Edited January 31, 2014 by wordchild

[ExpatJ]

UBS put out a strategy piece today suggesting Thai equities are close to buying levels, they suggest waiting till next week however. ADVANC is their top pick.

FWIW my own feeling is that its much too early; to me the market looks just ok with (maybe) a few cheap stocks (having been somewhat overheated last year) and I find most people to be quite sanguine about the protests and the likely resulting economic damage. Sentiment is not nearly bad enough (IMO) for this to be a great buying opportunity.

Happy to see UBS agreeing with my analysis in my original post . :-)

[Asiantravel]

Wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse before it gets better. Thailand has been growing for years without a shock, and the political situation is more of deadlock than a catastrophe.

I'll throw my adventurous money in if/when there's a coup or major upheaval and the SET drops 10-15% in a single hit.

The SET moved relatively little immediately after the coup in 2006, so no precedent there, so your 10-15% might have been plucked out of thin air.

but in 2006 Thailand didnt have public debt that totalled 5.39 trillion baht

according to the CIA factbook Thailand's total public debt (2012) was 45.7% of GDP. most governments of industrialised countries would jump with joy if their public debt would be that low.

Maybe but with comments from the likes of Suthep claiming the government is broke there is a huge likelihood of such debt getting a lot higher

[Time Traveller]

Maybe but with comments from the likes of Suthep claiming the government is broke there is a huge likelihood of such debt getting a lot higher

Let's hope that the comments of a losing politician come true. Government spending is one of the fastest ways to boost stocks.

[SheungWan]

Maybe but with comments from the likes of Suthep claiming the government is broke there is a huge likelihood of such debt getting a lot higher

Let's hope that the comments of a losing politician come true. Government spending is one of the fastest ways to boost stocks.

Right. They should double up on the rice scheme.

[PaullyW]

Sorry I didn't read the thread, but I would HIGHLY recommend that not try to buy socks in Thailand. You should get them before you arrive.

It's an absolute nightmare trying to find ones that fit properly for falang feet. Also, the cotton quality is often sub par.

[ExpatJ]

Following up on my first post- i just bought 300,000 baht of LPN and 300,000 of HMPRO - both have dividend dates in April @4%. (Unfortunately, both also already have increased in price this morning 1-2% before i bought).

Also, noticed that the biggest global Thai stocks ETF (MSCI thailand) has increased 5 % over the last month (and jumped up today)- the people with money seem to think this crisis is not as bad and some others believe...

My 4 other big holdings (ADVANC, KBANK, BANPU, PTT) which i have had for @ a year also have dividend payments coming up so i hope to start making money again on thai stocks after the last poor 3-4 months. (Also UBS recommended ADVANC as a buy for this week, which should help).

Edited February 3, 2014 by ExpatJ

[IMA_FARANG]

As the Thai bargirls say, "Up to you"

Personally I would rather play catch with a live hand grenade than put money into the Thai stock market.

But, "Up to you".

[IMA_FARANG]

Sorry I didn't read the thread, but I would HIGHLY recommend that not try to buy socks in Thailand. You should get them before you arrive.

It's an absolute nightmare trying to find ones that fit properly for falang feet. Also, the cotton quality is often sub par.

------------------

Not for me, I'm a big Farang (Fat) but I've got small hands and feet for a farang.

So the two things I can buy in Thailand are Socks and Shoes.

[Asiantravel]

Following up on my first post- i just bought 300,000 baht of LPN and 300,000 of HMPRO - both have dividend dates in April @4%. (Unfortunately, both also already have increased in price this morning 1-2% before i bought).

Also, noticed that the biggest global Thai stocks ETF (MSCI thailand) has increased 5 % over the last month (and jumped up today)- the people with money seem to think this crisis is not as bad and some others believe...

My 4 other big holdings (ADVANC, KBANK, BANPU, PTT) which i have had for @ a year also have dividend payments coming up so i hope to start making money again on thai stocks after the last poor 3-4 months. (Also UBS recommended ADVANC as a buy for this week, which should help).

read an article in Bangkok Post today entitled “ a rotten harvest “ and see if you feel the same

[ExpatJ]

Following up on my first post- i just bought 300,000 baht of LPN and 300,000 of HMPRO - both have dividend dates in April @4%. (Unfortunately, both also already have increased in price this morning 1-2% before i bought).

Also, noticed that the biggest global Thai stocks ETF (MSCI thailand) has increased 5 % over the last month (and jumped up today)- the people with money seem to think this crisis is not as bad and some others believe...

My 4 other big holdings (ADVANC, KBANK, BANPU, PTT) which i have had for @ a year also have dividend payments coming up so i hope to start making money again on thai stocks after the last poor 3-4 months. (Also UBS recommended ADVANC as a buy for this week, which should help).

read an article in Bangkok Post today entitled a rotten harvest and see if you feel the same:ermm:

Yes, in the medium/long term this is a big potential risk factor - my trades today i aim to sell within weeks. As for my other holdings, i think there will be an inflow and their prices will increase over the year (as global economy picks up slowly and political situation peters out to a business as normal - for thailand- ) and ill begin to unwind some of my thai holdings (my asset allocation is very heavy with thai stocks, so need to balance that).

[Asiantravel]

I wouldn't have thought this is a good omen for the stock market ?

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Lenders-tighten-household-criteria-30226054.html

[CPH]

The withdrawal of QE in the States will drain Emerging markets for money and stocks will fall. I would wait 6-9 month before consider buying anything.

[PaullyW]

Sorry I didn't read the thread, but I would HIGHLY recommend that not try to buy socks in Thailand. You should get them before you arrive.

It's an absolute nightmare trying to find ones that fit properly for falang feet. Also, the cotton quality is often sub par.

------------------

Not for me, I'm a big Farang (Fat) but I've got small hands and feet for a farang.

So the two things I can buy in Thailand are Socks and Shoes.

Yeah, there's a big tall farang guy in my building who has really little feet. Lucky guy