Divided Thailand faces warnings of civil war

[JRSoul]

Did UDD co-leader and agricultural expert caretaker Dept. Minister of Commerce Nattawut also mention (again) "it'll be on me" ?

Since when is an acting caretaker minister allowed to lead protests ?

When his bail conditions allow it. Strange that they allow him to incite civil unrest, again.

[plachon]

The most interesting line in this whole interesting piece is the following:

"Absolutely, there will be civil war if all sides do not respect rules," General Prayut Chan-O-Cha wrote in an SMS to AFP.

Note he is not talking about the laws of the land, but the unwritten but previously well understood "rules" of the game, which have governed the country for the last 60 years and decided who got what in the overall pecking order. The military generals have naturally been near the top of the pecking order and been rewarded consistently for upholding the "rules", but now they sense that the rules may be in danger of being torn up, they are worried, as they also realise that resorting to a good old military coup is not as easy as it was in the past, with the Sept 2006 coup ending up rather badly for the boys in green. So they've tried to rewrite the "rulebook" a bit since then, (and this exercise does not happen in parliament or the courts), yet still certain parties are flouting them openly and it is just not cricket, old fellow! Something has got to give soon and its likely to be messy........

Anybody give me odds that a coup is not that far off.....say inside next 7 - 10 days?

[Thaibo]

Thai politics is complicated! Who benefits from a civil war?

For as much as Thais would like to keep this conflict to themselves, they are not the only players. The US and China are in a game of influence here as the US and Russia are in a game of influence with Ukraine. Which side is the US on?

You'd think they would stick with Shinawatra/Yingluck -- they make public statements supporting democracy (what else can they do) and the regime is closely tied to Wall St.

But as neocon Robert Kagan wrote:

"The present world order serves the needs of the United States and its allies, which constructed it. And it is poorly suited to the needs of a Chinese dictatorship trying to maintain power at home and increase its clout abroad. Chinese leaders chafe at the constraints on them and worry that they must change the rules of the international system before the international system changes them."

Those investments can be protected.

Neocons in the US government are looking to unseat the Shinawatras from power as a message to Beijing.

Along the Thai-Burmese and Thai-Laotian border there's been an increase in activity to the southern Chinese province of Yunnan.

Keep in mind that Yingluck's government approved a high-speed rail line that will link Yunnan province with Laos, Thailand, Malaya, and Singapore. Such a rail link would extend Chinese influence over Southeast Asia. That's the kind of influence the US is looking to combat.

[Yunla]

I sincerely hope you are right about the last bit mate, but I tell you, I came here to live not to die.

And living in my book means doing the things that I enjoy doing without having to worry about what others will do.

Up till recently I, like you, had planned for this to be my last resting place but (again) even though there are many who would consider me old I don't feel old and can still do the things I want to do.

Therefore I have no wish to leave myself in a position where there in an untoward risk of having my time cut short by someones pet political hate.

Right now there are no problems where I am, so I wait to see.

I agree, and I came here to enjoy the remainder of my life as much as possible. I really love traditional Thai music, and enjoy going to local acoustic gigs etc. I love the art and ceramics here too.

I don't see civil war as a possibility at all, but I do see increase in brigandry attacks like bombs etc. especially if Yingluck gets booted.

But as for worrying, I think it comes back to your home nation that you left to come here. I was worried a lot in my home city, my house was burgled fifteen times, I was attacked during burglary, mugged in the streets etc. multiple times. That was in the north of England, and I was worried a lot back then. Burglary is very damaging for the nerves because it is your sanctuary being invaded, and being attacked by strangers at your home for no reason other than they are high on drugs and want to steal your valuables, makes you live in fear afterwards. In Bangkok I've never been mugged or burgled, so I don't feel the same constant anxiety. If bombings increased it would make me worried about people I love, but it wouldn't give me personal anxiety about myself, because I believe when it is my time to meet my Maker then that is the time intended.

[zakk9]

Thai politics is complicated! Who benefits from a civil war?

For as much as Thais would like to keep this conflict to themselves, they are not the only players. The US and China are in a game of influence here as the US and Russia are in a game of influence with Ukraine. Which side is the US on?

You'd think they would stick with Shinawatra/Yingluck -- they make public statements supporting democracy (what else can they do) and the regime is closely tied to Wall St.

But as neocon Robert Kagan wrote:

"The present world order serves the needs of the United States and its allies, which constructed it. And it is poorly suited to the needs of a Chinese dictatorship trying to maintain power at home and increase its clout abroad. Chinese leaders chafe at the constraints on them and worry that they must change the rules of the international system before the international system changes them."

Those investments can be protected.

Neocons in the US government are looking to unseat the Shinawatras from power as a message to Beijing.

Along the Thai-Burmese and Thai-Laotian border there's been an increase in activity to the southern Chinese province of Yunnan.

Keep in mind that Yingluck's government approved a high-speed rail line that will link Yunnan province with Laos, Thailand, Malaya, and Singapore. Such a rail link would extend Chinese influence over Southeast Asia. That's the kind of influence the US is looking to combat.

I doubt there will be a civil war. Everybody will lose from that, and the military will have the upper hand anyway. I don't believe in "watermelon soldiers" anymore. Many of the soldiers are sons of farmers, and they probably know from their families that their parents have been cheated by the regime in the rice scandal. Both China and the USA have traditionally been pro-Thaksin, and the American ambassador is rumoured to be a strong supporter of the Red Shirts. However, none of them would interfere directly. That would be far to controversial. There's not that much at stake for them here anyway, except the railway link from China, but that will become a reality sooner or later anyway.

[Robby nz]

This hype about the threat of the reds is meaningless, as proven in 2010, once the military decide to take action, the resistance ends, they may cause disruption and create a lot of noise, but they have no capacity to create any meaningful fighting opposition, the lack of funding once the taksin gold evaporates will reduce them to a hard core of corrupt thugs, easily dealt with.

Time to put an end to this farce and the shins out of their misery, it would be the kind thing to do.

Like the hard core of thugs in the south who are being so easily dealt with.

Far different from 2010, look at the war drum meeting and those are only the supposed leaders of the hard core.

Remember the weapons from 2010 have never been recovered, we see some of the grenade launchers surfacing now.

[ivoms]

The civil was has now started!

[noitom]

The DSI director promised almost a year ago in the Thai news right here, that he would announced a large number of major arrests for involvement in the high end illegal import of 145 foreign cars. He stated that government, private, and business professional had been implicated and he would soon announce who and make arrests. We haven't seen anything further on this, therefore we could easily assume that typical Thai payoffs had bought this case down and out of the news.

[tetleythedog]

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So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

It'd be the only "civil" thing here !

[zakk9]

The DSI director promised almost a year ago in the Thai news right here, that he would announced a large number of major arrests for involvement in the high end illegal import of 145 foreign cars. He stated that government, private, and business professional had been implicated and he would soon announce who and make arrests. We haven't seen anything further on this, therefore we could easily assume that typical Thai payoffs had bought this case down and out of the news.

Are you afraid the Ferraris will be used as weapons in a civil war?

[Showbags]

I am wrong

you mean JT?

you nasty

[cmiuc]

I couldn't find the link source of the article on AFP... do you have a link Mr. George?

THank you!

[Piichai]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

I trust the 'fascist' over the red shirts false 'democracy' anytime. Reforms first then elections. Until the problems are fixed, democracy will continue to fail this country. You guys talk a lot of about elections and democracy and yet we've seen years of unrest and kleptocracy. The violence that's happening right now is what Shinawatra 'democracy' has brought us. You guys love red democracy so much. Wait till they come to Bangkok again and when there are ashes of burnt buildings again like 2010, you'll see what red democracy is about.

Yes but what are the reforms that Suthep has in mind?

If they are genuine reforms designed to cut down corruption and government monopoly then I will support it.

But Suthep refuses to divulge the reforms until after he has taken power!

That is a very dangerous thing to accept and the reason why I cannot support such a movement.

I fear one of the reforms is cutting the voting rights of poor and less educated citizens.

C'mon Suthep, what reforms do you have in mind...

Think we'll hear more once Yingluck is out of the picture next week.

[Piichai]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

I trust the 'fascist' over the red shirts false 'democracy' anytime. Reforms first then elections. Until the problems are fixed, democracy will continue to fail this country. You guys talk a lot of about elections and democracy and yet we've seen years of unrest and kleptocracy. The violence that's happening right now is what Shinawatra 'democracy' has brought us. You guys love red democracy so much. Wait till they come to Bangkok again and when there are ashes of burnt buildings again like 2010, you'll see what red democracy is about.

Reforms here will take decades...not some amorphous slogan to jam into everybody's head... as if it is going to happen in a year or two...yes the street wars may go away... but before you know it same same..not different... gonna be along haul I fear ....there won't be elections for years and years if one follows that logic TV Gerry...

Back in the 1860s, the US fought a war to free the Blacks. A hundred or so years later, Martin Luther King (a black) waged his own peaceful crusade to end discrimination. Fifty or so years later, the US has a Black president.

Yes, things do take time.

There are so many flaws in Thailand's electoral system it's hard to know where to start, but that doesn't mean the work to reform the system shouldn't start. It means the work to improve the system should start as soon as possible.

Yingluck is desperate to hang on to the old corrupt ways for the sake of her criminal brother.

Time for Thai's to get angry about this.

[Piichai]

All the talk about the "neutral" army putting things straight brings up one interesting point: It is significant to note that the vast number of rank-and-file in the army--the lowly foot soldiers--are made up of recruits and conscripts from the 20-million population of NE Thailand--Isaan--the stronghold of the UDD. I wonder how neutral the "privates" would remain in a civil-war scenario, or even another coup? Would their obedience to military authority outweigh their upbringing and home ties? We might get a ringside seat to a breakdown of military authority if all Purgatory broke loose.

IIRC, the "watermelon" soldiers didn't have much of a problem running the Red Shirts out of town back in 2010.

Shouldn't think they'll have a problem this time either.

[bitcoinbob]

if civil war breaks out it will be due to a split in the military. north will be red strong- hold Bangkok will be battle ground. economy will grind to a halt, baht rate will tumble to nothing land prices will get vaporized. wealthy- the ones with money outside the country- will leave to where ever they have a second passport . if in the Bangkok area make way to myanmar,cambodia. in the north laos,myanmar. they will be a short window of opportunity to leave before borders are shut from both sides country no wanting all these people coming in and thailand no wanting people to leave sinking ship. knowing the Thais lawless bands will rove for opportunity. because something like this has never happened in Thailand most people will not leave believing something like this will never occur here, until they CAN not leave-- borders shut, money, assets confiscated, all for the civil war effort.

[rebelplatoon]

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"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

yes of course to 'protect democracy' you think the fascist Suthep will 'protect democracy'? where is Suthep's plans? reforms? who makes up the fascist Council? we don't know anything about his 'alternative to democracy'

only we must trust Suthep

let the people decide at an ELECTION - that's the democratic way

PS I'm against violence and will condemn it on EITHER side as should we all - good piece from AFP

Again as I said before: The difference in votes was 13% in the previous election. Due to the way the TRT (now PTP) set up the constituencies it translated in not a difference of 21 seats in parliament but to 108 (!!!) seats difference. THIS is why they don't want elections according to this system. Besides of course the populist strategies and the money hand outs. Both sides are in it for their own gain. They need to stop touring the North (Yingluck) and start listening for ways out (Suthep). There is a possibility of the middle way. If there is a will.

[Thaiready]

It will be near impossible for the police to remove the protesters. The below picture is why.....

a tow truck comes to mind

[Jasun]

All the talk about the "neutral" army putting things straight brings up one interesting point: It is significant to note that the vast number of rank-and-file in the army--the lowly foot soldiers--are made up of recruits and conscripts from the 20-million population of NE Thailand--Isaan--the stronghold of the UDD. I wonder how neutral the "privates" would remain in a civil-war scenario, or even another coup? Would their obedience to military authority outweigh their upbringing and home ties? We might get a ringside seat to a breakdown of military authority if all Purgatory broke loose.

IIRC, the "watermelon" soldiers didn't have much of a problem running the Red Shirts out of town back in 2010.

Shouldn't think they'll have a problem this time either.

They didn't send in the 'watermelon soldiers' in 2010. The live fire zone was implemented by the 1st army and hand-picked member of the 21st battalion, both Bangkok/elite aligned units.

[Baerboxer]

The Reds hope the Military stays in their barracks and the PCRD knows the Military will come out when the Malitia absolutely has no choice.

Unfortunately the wrighting is on the wall.

The Military stands for the Thai people's lives and welfare. Albeit not their prosperity.

They will defend the Kingdom from Civil War and Destrction to the best of their ability.

They do have the weapons, soldiers, and mandate of their mission to defend the Thailand. As well as the underlying support and loyalty of the majority Thai people to protect Thailand.

Even if it means defending Thailand from Violence and Civil War by opposing groups within the Country.

Of course within all of this are those within the Militia that will have Greed for Power and Money.

The violent attacks and threats from the opposing groups only reduces the current caretaker government's ability to remain in office without being ousted by a coup.

You have your thinking way wrong.

The reds are acting on Thaksins orders and he desperately wants a coup to be able to say his proxy Govt has been overthrown.

Then he will bring the reds out to oppose the army but not directly, they will go for soft targets and the army will have no chance, look what is happening in the south and translate that to the whole country.

Yes I have posted that before but there are those who just cant get it through their heads.

Of course. A coup helps Thaksin focus attention away from the corruption, lies, cheating and illegal acts that provoked the protests. He will squeal about attacks on democracy and about his sister being the real people's elected leader etc etc.

All smoke and mirrors to stop anyone looking at the corruption and how his sister's proxy regime behaved.

He uses clever propaganda and relied on lazy and sympathetic foreign journalists to swallow all their told.

A terrorist campaign in the name of democracy and freedom - great idea. All the crimes, past and present can be swept away and he can return to take power. No danger to him or any of his clan - they are somewhere safe. Let others die not us.

[tezzainoz]

"We must be ready to come to Bangkok within 24 hours for one purpose... to protect democracy," senior Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar said at a press conference Tuesday.

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

Protect democracy? Stage rallies. You guys weren't very democratic when you guys prevented the farmers from rallying this morning were you?

It's funny that AFP mentions 'violent incidence' conveniently ignoring the fact that thse 'violent incidences' were mostly directed at the protestors on a daily basis. The protestors have more or less been peaceful but whoever is responsible for attacking them daily is obviously not.

Both parties are violent, but we are facing the possibility of a civil war that started the first day Suthep started his rallies.

He's the only one responsible for that and should be stopped before it's too late.

when I was young my parents taught me it takes 2 to start a fight

when at school I was taught the same thing

so I must feel sorry if many TV posters never have parents and believe thailand is full of shadow boxers

[kamahele]

The Reds will stage rallies over the coming weekends in the northeast as a show of strength, he added.

They've already showed their strength many times. We are waiting for a show of integrity, a show of intelligence and a show of compassion. Lots of shows we would like to see, strength isn't one of them. Strength of numbers or strength of force, both things are meaningless without the right policies and philosophy.

I would hastily add that I'm waiting for similar positive shows from the other side too. At some point they all have to accept that strength of numbers and might-is-right, is not anywhere near as important as forming consensus on progressive reform policies that benefit all the struggling people in this nation.

Finally a sensible opinion. I only wish the two factions would agree.

[kamahele]

While I don't yet think that civil war is brewing and hope to dear God I am right, this has certainly moved past the point of being settled politically which I suppose at least one side wanted all along.

[Suriya4]

Splitting the country is not such a bad idea.

Like Ukraine.

[JesseFrank]

Did UDD co-leader and agricultural expert caretaker Dept. Minister of Commerce Nattawut also mention (again) "it'll be on me" ?

Since when is an acting caretaker minister allowed to lead protests ?

When his bail conditions allow it. Strange that they allow him to incite civil unrest, again.

But Abhisit and alike were threated to be taken to court because they went on the PDRC stage because they hadn't resigned from the Democrat party yet ?

[Rob8891]

Splitting the country is not such a bad idea.

Like Ukraine.

This is so wrong. The country needs to be healed, not split. How can the north and northeast (which is what I am guessing you mean) survive with relatively little indistrial infrastructure and no main means of creating national income. The area would also be landlocked, which would hamper development. The south would not be able to survive anything like as well if it loses the Isaan 'rice bowl'.

The two areas would sink fast (the north and north-east fastest, I grant you).

[Yunla]

Splitting the country is not such a bad idea.

Like Ukraine.

This is so wrong. The country needs to be healed, not split. How can the north and northeast (which is what I am guessing you mean) survive with relatively little indistrial infrastructure and no main means of creating national income. The area would also be landlocked, which would hamper development. The south would not be able to survive anything like as well if it loses the Isaan 'rice bowl'.

The two areas would sink fast (the north and north-east fastest, I grant you).

I have yet to speak to a single Thai person who wants the to see the nation split up. My Thai friends in the capital and in Issan all love the sovereign very-important-person for example, and are patriotic to be a part of Thailand the whole nation, proud of the culture and identity of this great nation. I mix with normal worker Thais and I don't know any extremists here, and in my opinion its only the extremists, media, and casual observers who think dividing Thailand is realistic or useful.

Most people I know want to see an end to division along urban/rural, rich/poor and north/south lines, they want less division not more division.

[visionchaser45]

So have any of you on this board thought about what you would do if a civil war were to start ?

Do you believe you would be safe ?

Might pay to think about it.

That is sound advice, indeed. It is going to blow this time. The only thing holding what is left of the balance is that nobody wants to be on the record for firing the first shot. That is why the "men in black" play such an important role; plausible deniability. People can only speculate and blame the other side for pulling the strings, but nobody knows for sure.

[papa al]

so why is no one doing anything to prevent or deter the people who throw grenades and shoot at innocent people?

Like what?

[papa al]

Splitting the country is not such a bad idea.

Like Ukraine.

Or like Pakistan/India?