Bitcoin: A Year Later

[sanuk711]

[PattayaPete]

Your graph is nice but it ignores the fact bitcoin has been through at least 10 bubble phases and always recovered. Some of the highlights when it went from a few cents to a dollar then fell back to less than a cent. Then it went to $30 and fell back to $15. Then it went to $220 and fell back to $60. Then it went to $500 and fell back to $250. Then it went to $1200 and fell back to $450. Presently its at $600. All this in 3 years so nobody is saying bitcoin has not been volatile. Those that have ridden the wave though are pretty happy with the outcome.

It is still very early days for bitcoin and you can expect more volatility. Some of us have made plenty of money along the way, buying the dips and selling the peaks. However for most people buy and hold has proven to be a successful strategy. People like to make fun of the $1200 high saying somebody lost money at that point but in reality it only reached that peak for a few hours. For 99.9% of its life bitcoin has been worth considerably less than it is today. True, some people buy the highs and sell the dips but those people really should not be involved in any sort of investment.

[fullnappy]

Great sensible post from PattayaPete.

For what it's worth I'd just add that while I agree BTC is here to stay, it's the block chain principle, or internal ledger if you're not familiar, that is the definitely certain part. I'd rather own the IP to that idea than the currency currently using it but still a great opportunity for people to learn about monetary science and history.

My preferred tip to save yourself from what's coming is precious metals and in particular silver held in your physical possession or very well vaulted.

Particularly if you live overseas and survive on a pension paid from back home, UK, US etc. then I'd brace yourself and take some serious action before it's too late.

[Kabula]

In my opinion it's a set up!

The largest holder of Bitcoins is the FBI!

US citizens should check current tax laws.

If I conveyed my experiences with Mt Gox and Coinbase you would not believe me!

[poweratradio]

To me this Bitcoin thing is like the Dutch tulip bulb scam,or the

Southseas bubble scam,who says a bitcoin is worth xxx,or better

yet why is it worth xxx?,it would be nice to have a currency that

would cut out the greedy bankers,but i don't think this is going

to end well,for people who use it for investment.

regards worgeordie

I agree with you. Seems like the old day when Llamas and Alpacas were the rage for buying and selling. No they are just pets with some supplying great wool worth more like a cowboys prize steer or horse. Bit coins made the early birds the money or should I say bit coin value as it is not to clear to me how to turn bitcoin into cash or gold. It is a traded for service or commodity only.

[SNGLIFE]

PattayaPete: "supply is strictly limited by the protocol that means if more people want it the only way the can be accommodated is for the price to go up. If the user base expanded to that of say Visa or Mastercard the value of a bitcoin would have to increase many multiples of what it is now."

...and that is my reckoning, too.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Per the chart, BitCoin should cap at 21 M coins (in the year 2140). 10 years from now in 2024, there will be ~19.7 M coins mined. Let's think about that for a moment...

Let's say 9.7 M coins will remain out of circulation and tucked away in cold wallets. Of course, it is likely the majority of coins will remain out of circulation - something like 80% is the current estimate of coins out of circulation intentionally, lost forever, etc. - I believe. Anyway, let's go with 10 M coins in circulation in the year 2024...

The global population in 2024 will be ~8,000 M. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_milestones)

If BTC is still around in 2024, it would only be because it will have enjoyed massive adoption and be as pervasive as the Internet is today. So, let's say 75% of 8,000 M people are of earning/spending age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure) = 6,000 M people.

Let's say the demographics for people of earning/spending age who use the Internet remains relatively flat at ~25% (http://www.statista.com/statistics/272365/age-distribution-of-internet-users-worldwide/) = 1,500 M people.

Let's say those Internet users who make purchases online remains flat at ~50% (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/131028/dq131028a-eng.htm) = 750 M people. We can speculate that due to its competitive advantages, half of those people use BTC or have BTC somewhere in the producer to customer chain. = 375 M people.

I'll stop here because there are already lots of other factors which could/should be considered, but the gist is that in 2024, 10 M BTC will be in demand by 375 M people. What will be the BTC valuation in 2024 considering USD inflation, global oil supply/demand, and lots of other stuff? I have no idea, but it will definitely be a shtload more than the USD$800 per BTC I paid.

Heck, the folks at (http://www.bitcoinforecast.com/) have short-term projections which say I should be back in the black by October.

I do know that if I am totally wrong, then a lose a finite amount. I can live with that - no problem. On the other hand, if I am right, then I am F!!!ING right and my kids will think I was/am a genius (ha!).

[ExoticMatter]

I respectively suggest people read the bitcoin whitepaper where it all started if they want to understand the genius behind the blockchain ledger idea,

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

I had to read it a number of times to start to get it, but is worth the effort

Unlike with your bank account or paypal, double spend is nearly impossible due to the nature of the blockchain as long as the confirmations (can be 15 minutes or more) are allowed to take place across the blockchain and in your wallet.Mount Gox were not allowing the confirmations to take place properly in their hot wallet for exchange speed reasons and hence it opened them up to hacking.

@sanuk711, yes, agreed, though some have gone straight to stage 2

http://dont-tread-on.me/?p=454

[beb]

PattayaPete: "supply is strictly limited by the protocol that means if more people want it the only way the can be accommodated is for the price to go up. If the user base expanded to that of say Visa or Mastercard the value of a bitcoin would have to increase many multiples of what it is now."

...and that is my reckoning, too.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Per the chart, BitCoin should cap at 21 M coins (in the year 2140). 10 years from now in 2024, there will be ~19.7 M coins mined. Let's think about that for a moment...

Let's say 9.7 M coins will remain out of circulation and tucked away in cold wallets. Of course, it is likely the majority of coins will remain out of circulation - something like 80% is the current estimate of coins out of circulation intentionally, lost forever, etc. - I believe. Anyway, let's go with 10 M coins in circulation in the year 2024...

The global population in 2024 will be ~8,000 M. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_milestones)

If BTC is still around in 2024, it would only be because it will have enjoyed massive adoption and be as pervasive as the Internet is today. So, let's say 75% of 8,000 M people are of earning/spending age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure) = 6,000 M people.

Let's say the demographics for people of earning/spending age who use the Internet remains relatively flat at ~25% (http://www.statista.com/statistics/272365/age-distribution-of-internet-users-worldwide/) = 1,500 M people.

Let's say those Internet users who make purchases online remains flat at ~50% (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/131028/dq131028a-eng.htm) = 750 M people. We can speculate that due to its competitive advantages, half of those people use BTC or have BTC somewhere in the producer to customer chain. = 375 M people.

I'll stop here because there are already lots of other factors which could/should be considered, but the gist is that in 2024, 10 M BTC will be in demand by 375 M people. What will be the BTC valuation in 2024 considering USD inflation, global oil supply/demand, and lots of other stuff? I have no idea, but it will definitely be a shtload more than the USD$800 per BTC I paid.

Heck, the folks at (http://www.bitcoinforecast.com/) have short-term projections which say I should be back in the black by October.

I do know that if I am totally wrong, then a lose a finite amount. I can live with that - no problem. On the other hand, if I am right, then I am F!!!ING right and my kids will think I was/am a genius (ha!).

As much as I believe in btc, I've never seen anybody give an accurate projection of prices. As soon as somebody detects a pattern, another variable comes into play.

I think the adoption and price predictions will become much more reliable when developers finally bring bitcoin into the mainstream with much better interfaces and security than exist right now.

[Misty]

PattayaPete: "supply is strictly limited by the protocol that means if more people want it the only way the can be accommodated is for the price to go up. If the user base expanded to that of say Visa or Mastercard the value of a bitcoin would have to increase many multiples of what it is now."

...and that is my reckoning, too.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Per the chart, BitCoin should cap at 21 M coins (in the year 2140). 10 years from now in 2024, there will be ~19.7 M coins mined. Let's think about that for a moment...

Let's say 9.7 M coins will remain out of circulation and tucked away in cold wallets. Of course, it is likely the majority of coins will remain out of circulation - something like 80% is the current estimate of coins out of circulation intentionally, lost forever, etc. - I believe. Anyway, let's go with 10 M coins in circulation in the year 2024...

The global population in 2024 will be ~8,000 M. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_milestones)

If BTC is still around in 2024, it would only be because it will have enjoyed massive adoption and be as pervasive as the Internet is today. So, let's say 75% of 8,000 M people are of earning/spending age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure) = 6,000 M people.

Let's say the demographics for people of earning/spending age who use the Internet remains relatively flat at ~25% (http://www.statista.com/statistics/272365/age-distribution-of-internet-users-worldwide/) = 1,500 M people.

Let's say those Internet users who make purchases online remains flat at ~50% (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/131028/dq131028a-eng.htm) = 750 M people. We can speculate that due to its competitive advantages, half of those people use BTC or have BTC somewhere in the producer to customer chain. = 375 M people.

I'll stop here because there are already lots of other factors which could/should be considered, but the gist is that in 2024, 10 M BTC will be in demand by 375 M people. What will be the BTC valuation in 2024 considering USD inflation, global oil supply/demand, and lots of other stuff? I have no idea, but it will definitely be a shtload more than the USD$800 per BTC I paid.

Heck, the folks at (http://www.bitcoinforecast.com/) have short-term projections which say I should be back in the black by October.

I do know that if I am totally wrong, then a lose a finite amount. I can live with that - no problem. On the other hand, if I am right, then I am F!!!ING right and my kids will think I was/am a genius (ha!).

The fixed supply of bitcoin is the structural flaw which will keep it from ever being a global currency. If it were successfully accepted as a global currency, who would ever spend their bitcoin given its fixed supply? Hoarding would result. Massive deflation in prices in bitcoin terms. People would substitute something more stable to use as a currency while hoarding bitcoin. Suddenly bitcoin no longer a medium of exchange. So what value does it really have at that point? Truly, it would become like tulip bulbs. Only having value if it has some use, but since no one uses it to buy anything, where is the value? At least tulips look nice in a vase.

Someone would need to invent a global digital currency where the supply wasn't fixed to avoid the forced deflation. But then you'd need someone/something trustworthy in charge of matching the growth in supply of the currency with the growth of goods it would be spent on. Usually that's a job for a central bank. Whatever you may think of central banks, I'm not sure I trust the folks behind bitcoin for that particular task.

[beb]

PattayaPete: "supply is strictly limited by the protocol that means if more people want it the only way the can be accommodated is for the price to go up. If the user base expanded to that of say Visa or Mastercard the value of a bitcoin would have to increase many multiples of what it is now."

...and that is my reckoning, too.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Per the chart, BitCoin should cap at 21 M coins (in the year 2140). 10 years from now in 2024, there will be ~19.7 M coins mined. Let's think about that for a moment...

Let's say 9.7 M coins will remain out of circulation and tucked away in cold wallets. Of course, it is likely the majority of coins will remain out of circulation - something like 80% is the current estimate of coins out of circulation intentionally, lost forever, etc. - I believe. Anyway, let's go with 10 M coins in circulation in the year 2024...

The global population in 2024 will be ~8,000 M. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_milestones)

If BTC is still around in 2024, it would only be because it will have enjoyed massive adoption and be as pervasive as the Internet is today. So, let's say 75% of 8,000 M people are of earning/spending age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure) = 6,000 M people.

Let's say the demographics for people of earning/spending age who use the Internet remains relatively flat at ~25% (http://www.statista.com/statistics/272365/age-distribution-of-internet-users-worldwide/) = 1,500 M people.

Let's say those Internet users who make purchases online remains flat at ~50% (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/131028/dq131028a-eng.htm) = 750 M people. We can speculate that due to its competitive advantages, half of those people use BTC or have BTC somewhere in the producer to customer chain. = 375 M people.

I'll stop here because there are already lots of other factors which could/should be considered, but the gist is that in 2024, 10 M BTC will be in demand by 375 M people. What will be the BTC valuation in 2024 considering USD inflation, global oil supply/demand, and lots of other stuff? I have no idea, but it will definitely be a shtload more than the USD$800 per BTC I paid.

Heck, the folks at (http://www.bitcoinforecast.com/) have short-term projections which say I should be back in the black by October.

I do know that if I am totally wrong, then a lose a finite amount. I can live with that - no problem. On the other hand, if I am right, then I am F!!!ING right and my kids will think I was/am a genius (ha!).

The fixed supply of bitcoin is the structural flaw which will keep it from ever being a global currency. If it were successfully accepted as a global currency, who would ever spend their bitcoin given its fixed supply? Hoarding would result. Massive deflation in prices in bitcoin terms. People would substitute something more stable to use as a currency while hoarding bitcoin. Suddenly bitcoin no longer a medium of exchange. So what value does it really have at that point? Truly, it would become like tulip bulbs. Only having value if it has some use, but since no one uses it to buy anything, where is the value? At least tulips look nice in a vase.

Someone would need to invent a global digital currency where the supply wasn't fixed to avoid the forced deflation. But then you'd need someone/something trustworthy in charge of matching the growth in supply of the currency with the growth of goods it would be spent on. Usually that's a job for a central bank. Whatever you may think of central banks, I'm not sure I trust the folks behind bitcoin for that particular task.

This is where math comes in. Bitcoin uses math. Math allows bitcoin to be divided to ridiculous levels.

If you think a fixed supply somehow limits bitcoin then you're not taking math into account.

[Misty]

PattayaPete: "supply is strictly limited by the protocol that means if more people want it the only way the can be accommodated is for the price to go up. If the user base expanded to that of say Visa or Mastercard the value of a bitcoin would have to increase many multiples of what it is now."

...and that is my reckoning, too.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Per the chart, BitCoin should cap at 21 M coins (in the year 2140). 10 years from now in 2024, there will be ~19.7 M coins mined. Let's think about that for a moment...

Let's say 9.7 M coins will remain out of circulation and tucked away in cold wallets. Of course, it is likely the majority of coins will remain out of circulation - something like 80% is the current estimate of coins out of circulation intentionally, lost forever, etc. - I believe. Anyway, let's go with 10 M coins in circulation in the year 2024...

The global population in 2024 will be ~8,000 M. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_milestones)

If BTC is still around in 2024, it would only be because it will have enjoyed massive adoption and be as pervasive as the Internet is today. So, let's say 75% of 8,000 M people are of earning/spending age (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#Age_structure) = 6,000 M people.

Let's say the demographics for people of earning/spending age who use the Internet remains relatively flat at ~25% (http://www.statista.com/statistics/272365/age-distribution-of-internet-users-worldwide/) = 1,500 M people.

Let's say those Internet users who make purchases online remains flat at ~50% (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/131028/dq131028a-eng.htm) = 750 M people. We can speculate that due to its competitive advantages, half of those people use BTC or have BTC somewhere in the producer to customer chain. = 375 M people.

I'll stop here because there are already lots of other factors which could/should be considered, but the gist is that in 2024, 10 M BTC will be in demand by 375 M people. What will be the BTC valuation in 2024 considering USD inflation, global oil supply/demand, and lots of other stuff? I have no idea, but it will definitely be a shtload more than the USD$800 per BTC I paid.

Heck, the folks at (http://www.bitcoinforecast.com/) have short-term projections which say I should be back in the black by October.

I do know that if I am totally wrong, then a lose a finite amount. I can live with that - no problem. On the other hand, if I am right, then I am F!!!ING right and my kids will think I was/am a genius (ha!).

The fixed supply of bitcoin is the structural flaw which will keep it from ever being a global currency. If it were successfully accepted as a global currency, who would ever spend their bitcoin given its fixed supply? Hoarding would result. Massive deflation in prices in bitcoin terms. People would substitute something more stable to use as a currency while hoarding bitcoin. Suddenly bitcoin no longer a medium of exchange. So what value does it really have at that point? Truly, it would become like tulip bulbs. Only having value if it has some use, but since no one uses it to buy anything, where is the value? At least tulips look nice in a vase.

Someone would need to invent a global digital currency where the supply wasn't fixed to avoid the forced deflation. But then you'd need someone/something trustworthy in charge of matching the growth in supply of the currency with the growth of goods it would be spent on. Usually that's a job for a central bank. Whatever you may think of central banks, I'm not sure I trust the folks behind bitcoin for that particular task.

This is where math comes in. Bitcoin uses math. Math allows bitcoin to be divided to ridiculous levels.

If you think a fixed supply somehow limits bitcoin then you're not taking math into account.

Yes, I use math too, but unfortunately even ridiculous amounts of subdivision won't overcome the hoarding issue.

[PattayaPete]

We have been told for decades that a small amount of inflation is a good thing, 2 or 3% perhaps. Why is it a good thing? Well primarily because it allows governments to reduce the value of their debt. For the rest of us, this means our money loses value and so encourages us to spend now rather than to save because our money will be worth less tomorrow than it is today. Considering nations in the past have been built and thrived on peoples savings but now are built and decline on debt, we can see where this path has taken us.

The idea that a deflationary currency like bitcoin would cause hoarding is unfounded. People have to eat and have somewhere to live, they want stuff like cars and computers and phones, and they want to impress their neighbors. To get these things they need to spend money. However if they can save and the value of their money increases they may well hold for a bit longer so they can buy a better thing tomorrow. They will still eat today, live somewhere today and buy stuff today and perhaps save some today to buy something better tomorrow.

A deflationary currency will send the message that you can be better off, you can get ahead by being thrifty. It will damage the credit card pushers and the pay day loan pushers and the banks. The banks now account for approximately 20% of GDP. That means banks are skimming 20% off the top of most transactions to provide a service that in most cases is unnecessary. Since the 1980s real wages have been dropping as the banks and financial institutions and large corporations have diverted an ever bigger share of the economy into their own pockets. This is all tied into finantialization of the economy.

Bitcoin provides a way that the ordinary person can fight back. A deflationary currency is a key to that fight and is a crowning attribute of bitcoin by design. It is not a structural flaw, it is a structural triumph. People who have been raised in our current inflationary, money printing forever paradigm have trouble getting their heads around this. Bitcoin although limited to 21 million whole coins can be subdivided currently to 8 decimal places into a unit called a Satoshi. With our 21 million coins we can have 21 million to the power of 8 Satoshis which is a very large number. The eight decimal places is an arbitrary limit which can easily be increased. As the bitcoin economy grows the value of a Satoshi will grow. Most people will never own a whole bitcoin but they may have a few thousand Satoshis. You can buy 1000 Satoshis today for 6 cents. Probably the world's greatest bargain.

In a deflationary economy banks can go back to providing services for its customers like secure storage and real loans to real people instead of the never ending derivative spiral and other non-productive financial games they play today. The transition will not be easy and certainly bankers will fight to keep the crap system we have now. Another strength of bitcoin is that it will co-exist with the old economy and so the transition will be done voluntarily by people choosing to adopt it. The old system can carry on for as long as the bankers can bamboozle the uninformed into accepting their inflationary, fractional reserve paradigm.

The smart people will just opt out of the old system and pick up the new.

[utkb]

Just a quick read of a few of the facts on bitcoins.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/FAQ#How_are_new_bitcoins_created.3F

Take away points:

1) experimental

2) can be manipulated with deep enough pockets - e.g. China; Iran;

3) Goes to zero if everyone stops accepting them.

So yes there is risk; but may have some utility.

To the OP enjoy your long term study as you say; that would be the only way to approach this as only time will tell.

I suspect that if bitcoins ever became a real threat to exchanges they would be swallowed up or banned.

It seems the worst case would be if the US government or other governments thought they were losing tax revenue and/or felt international drug rings were using bitcoins to cover their tracks. Then policy changes could adversely affect their value.

[PattayaPete]

The drugs thing always comes up with bitcoin and always makes me laugh. The total value of all bitcoin is presently around 10 billion dollars. Keep that figure in mind as you read what congressional investigators have to say about money laundering with dollars . . . . . .

"There is a consensus among U.S. Congressional Investigators, former bankers and international banking experts that U.S. and European banks launder between $500 billion and $1 trillion of dirty money each year, half of which is laundered by U.S. banks alone. As Senator Carl Levin summarizes the record: "Estimates are that $500 billion to $1 trillion of international criminal proceeds are moved internationally and deposited into bank accounts annually. It is estimated that half of that money comes to the United States".

If illegal dealings are a reason to shut something down then the US dollar has to be top of the list.

If you missed it, HSBC bank was fined more than 1 billion dollars last year for laundering 3 billion dollars of Mexican drug money. (Justice Department spokesman comment "If we arrested someone at HSBC Bank they would loose their Banking Permit and that could potentially bring down the banking system") ie - Too Big To Jail.

Bitcoin is strictly amateur hour when it comes to money laundering, the banks and US dollar have that business well covered thank you very much.

[UbonOz]

I cannot be bothered arguing the toss with people that choose to wear blinkers.

We are being robbed blind by the financial institutions.

What makes me sad is if the world continues on its course, I believe it will not, there will be change, what future is there going to be for our kids and grand-kids. Hopefully, the change will not involve spilling blood. Bitcoin will be a peaceful process which will creep up on the banksters before they know it.

I would support anything, even sea shells, as a currency, if it can take the power away from the 1%.

[utkb]

The drugs thing always comes up with bitcoin and always makes me laugh. The total value of all bitcoin is presently around 10 billion dollars. Keep that figure in mind as you read what congressional investigators have to say about money laundering with dollars . . . . . .

"There is a consensus among U.S. Congressional Investigators, former bankers and international banking experts that U.S. and European banks launder between $500 billion and $1 trillion of dirty money each year, half of which is laundered by U.S. banks alone. As Senator Carl Levin summarizes the record: "Estimates are that $500 billion to $1 trillion of international criminal proceeds are moved internationally and deposited into bank accounts annually. It is estimated that half of that money comes to the United States".

If illegal dealings are a reason to shut something down then the US dollar has to be top of the list.

If you missed it, HSBC bank was fined more than 1 billion dollars last year for laundering 3 billion dollars of Mexican drug money. (Justice Department spokesman comment "If we arrested someone at HSBC Bank they would loose their Banking Permit and that could potentially bring down the banking system") ie - Too Big To Jail.

Bitcoin is strictly amateur hour when it comes to money laundering, the banks and US dollar have that business well covered thank you very much.

A fair enough response. For me just thinking out loud and seeing what bitcoin is about. If bitcoin is only 10 billion, then that is very small in the financial world, and hardly worth noting. As you say it is amateur hour.

[fullnappy]

The reason a small amount of inflation is necessary stands on three inevitables.

Firstly, population growth must be linked to money in circulation. If you are sure a population using a particular currency will remain stable then

Inflation is unnecessary, but that's not been achieved so far.

Secondly, deflation causes debt repudiation. A debt is only repaid if the value of the asset purchased is rising faster than the value of the currency. The Victorians knew this and would put you in a debtors prison if you failed to pay. Today we go bankrupt and walk away.

Lastly, governments need tax. Tax is only practical to collect from transactions. If transactions drop due to a reduced desire to swop money for finite things then governments die along with their public sector parasites.

Sadly there is no practical alternative to a little inflation.

[UbonOz]

Blockchain revolution: open source democracy for the 99%

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/nozomi-hayase/blockchain-revolution-open-source-democracy-for-99

[farang000999]

Hopefully this goes better than "buy silver crash jp morgan" went for the gold bugs/libertarians.

[chingching]

am selling bitcoin locally for below market value. Max amount 1000 THB. Transfer thru SCB or Bangkok Bank. This is good for beginners in bitcoin and also ensures that your bitcoins are anonymous. They might be able to determine that my wallet sent your wallet the funds - but since I have no idea who you are the trail ends there. Of course when you sign into localbitcoins.com use a vps and a "disposable" email address.

I am "bestusernameever" on localbitcoins.com. If you're a member of TVF will discount an additional 100 baht.

[kmj]

So whats the score is this a good time to buy or will the crash continue?

[Naam]

Bitcoin performance year-to-day

[Naam]

am selling bitcoin locally for below market value. Max amount 1000 THB. Transfer thru SCB or Bangkok Bank. This is good for beginners in bitcoin and also ensures that your bitcoins are anonymous. They might be able to determine that my wallet sent your wallet the funds - but since I have no idea who you are the trail ends there. Of course when you sign into localbitcoins.com use a vps and a "disposable" email address.

I am "bestusernameever" on localbitcoins.com. If you're a member of TVF will discount an additional 100 baht.

why max amount THB 1,000? won't huge amounts like these raise red flags left and right which will make "them" suspicious?

[utkb]

Hmmm,

Last year this thread was started (Jan 2014) after Bitcoin's had an exceptional run-up.

Was waiting to see if the same views were held this year (Jan 2015) after bitcoins have fallen 4x and are trending down.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgCzm1g10zm2g25zv

Well the adage that past performance is no guarantee of future gains comes to mind

[paddyjenkins]

Hmmm,

Last year this thread was started (Jan 2014) after Bitcoin's had an exceptional run-up.

Was waiting to see if the same views were held this year (Jan 2015) after bitcoins have fallen 4x and are trending down.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgCzm1g10zm2g25zv

Well the adage that past performance is no guarantee of future gains comes to mind

Is Bitcoin shortable? Probably not, so just longs around and they've mostly lost a ton of money....people love to talk about their winners so now the price has and is collapsing the old Bitcoin believers are silent. My guess is it will go to zero. I imagine it's highly illiquid so there is a chance current longs won't be able to get out. Even if it doesn't go to zero the chance of getting hacked is very high anyway so longs can easily have their coins stolen.

How about buying Ruble, selling Bitcoins?

[Cheesekraft]

you can short bitcoin on bitfinex.com or 796 and probably some other reputable sites as well.

dont buy bitcoins to "invest", buy a small amount, order something online, and experience it. Buy something on amazon through Gyft at ~3% off with bitcoin and have your mind blown at the same time. You can't knock it until you've tried it.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Cheesekraft