THB forecast over the next 10 years

[Benmart]

What country has ever prospered under a military Junta?

What country has ever prospered after a general appointed himself Prime Minister for life?

If you can answer those questions, you have a good chance of predicting the future.

Of course we can not compare the Commander in Chief in Thailand with the Ladyboy in the WH, you know the Union organizer with no knowledge of any kind except the communist procedures

The current occupant of the WH is a human being, as all Lady Boys are.

What differentiates a gentle person from a non-gentle person, is the expanse of their thoughts, words and actions.

While I have no love for the current resident of the WH, I still refer to him as the President or by name.

[Paul944]

Where do you want to spend the money over 10 years?

If you put it on a savings account where do you get the best interest?

No one can fore see the exchange rate over 10 years. Some will get lucky and some will get unlucky.

My opinion, the best bet is to keep it where you intend to spend it and not to gamble on the exchange rates. Of course if the exchange rate is very low you decide to wait for a year in the hope it is getting better, but I wouldn't wait for 10 years.

Edited August 20, 2014 by Paul944

[BernieOnTour]

Coming back to the original topic...

IMHO it's not a question of Baht to Pound, but of Pound to US$.

If you download the historical exchange rates Baht vs. Pound and $ vs, Pound - Oanda offers this feature - and draw a line graph, you will most likely agree, that the Baht will move in general like the $ rate. At least this is the case with a Euro comparison.

(Btw. the Phillipine Peso is similar)

[fletchsmile]

Even with GBP's rally over the last 18 months or so, it's still down signifcantly = 25% to 30% over about the last 10 years.

Personally I expect that long term trend to continue. There'll be blips along the way like the last couple of years. GBP's best days are behind it - not unlike USD.

So I'd put money on THB being stronger 10 years from now.

That said, put yourself in the situation and manage your finances so your not bothered either way

If living in Thailand and expect to do for 10 years+ build some THB assets. That way if THB and Thailand does well you share in it. If it doesn't, then you're just like anyone else here so relatively haven't lost out relative to Thais for cost of living etc. The worst case is leaving all your money in GBP and then THB strengthens, so people here are better off and you're not!

Cheers

Fletch

[bangkapi]

All the paper fiat currencies will go down in purchasing power no matter what they will be worth in buying other paper currencies in 10 years.

Best to buy some gold now or if it dips any further. I guarantee you, it will be worth more against all paper currencies in 10 years.

[mrfaroukh]

Well my suggestion is to enjoy life don't think of the next 10 years, you don't even know what happen tomorrow.

[givenall]

Do you have a coin?

[personchester]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

Strange reply, your above printed outline is insensible.

[connda]

Diversify.

[tboxcar]

I'd have to agree with most here, anyone who can predict the THB's future for the next 10 years would be a genius and a rich man, the same with any currency, the best we can do is to look back. I have been visiting and living in Thailand since 1988 and remember when the THB was pegged to the dollar at 25, I remember as many do the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997-98.

One can safely assume that the Fed Reserve in American can't drop interest rates any lower and as the US Economy picks up steam, rates will go up, forcing many currencies down, it's the cheap money that the US has been pumping into the world economy since the crash of 2008 that has pumped up Emerging markets. With this money no longer cheap one can safely assume the dollar will get stonger and with turmoil in China (real estate bubble) only a fool would bet on their currency, the Euro will fluctuate but if Russia's expansionism resumes, there might not even be a Euro in 10 years, or it won't have the same players.

In the end I certainly would not bet against the THB, but would not dump all my money there either.

[lor]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

It seems from your comment you got ripped off big style or are you going by hear say the op has not asked about properties/ condos he has asked where we think the Baht is going in my humble opinion I cannot see the baht going any higher than 55 to the £ over the next few years . My income is via the UK I bring it in when required depending on my needs the Halifax building society only charge £9.50 per transaction which I tend to do every two months ,however you can get much better savings rates in the Kingdom than the UK

Just to pass on useful info. Did you know? HSBC in the UK only charge £4.00 to send money to Thailand.

Chris

[Krataiboy]

If I could answer your question, It would be from somewhere a bit more salubrious than Thailand - on the profit from playing the currency market.

[khrab]

All the paper fiat currencies will go down in purchasing power no matter what they will be worth in buying other paper currencies in 10 years.

Best to buy some gold now or if it dips any further. I guarantee you, it will be worth more against all paper currencies in 10 years.

I wonder why I took some many posts until the only option came up.

In Gold we trust.

Gold is the only long time currency since thousands of years.

Buy only physical gold. Less than 1% of the traded "gold" is gold. The rest is just paper like the fiat currencies.

Within the next 10 years the day will come and ALL fiat currencies will come down including the paper gold.

Good for you if you have some gold bahts.

(It is so easy to buy gold in Thailand anonymously. Almost every shopping center as a gold shop open every day.)

[scoutman360]

Diversify. Every time I listen to an "expert", I hear another "expert" say the exact opposite. I am convinced throwing darts at a dart board will provide the same "expert" advice.

Fletchsmile and a few others on this forum have provided very sound and level-headed advice. All I can say is, I started listening and my Thailand stock investments have made me very happy. Do you want to keep your money in a country doing less than 2% annual growth such as the U.S.? or in Asia, such as Thailand, doing 3x that?

[MikeN]

Keep you cash in Europe. Never invest in thailand. They can kick you out and take a your belongings if they want.

See all these guys who bought condo and house illegall. "Don't worry we open business for you, we take care of everything and buy our condo."

Now these guys worry(Suckers sucked! ) , plenty of condo for sell everywhere.

Thailand is finished....!

Hmmm ... I would have second thoughts about taking any sort of financial advice from somebody calling himself "bitcoinman" ....suckers sucked ?

but more seriously, worrying about the baht for next 10 years ? that's an awful long time, anything can happen and probably will at some time during that long a cycle. Especially as you also have to worry about what the pound is going to do at the same time.

[Leung Falang]

This site is fun and insightful and interactive. Long term trend is for the baht to strengthen against the dollar and sterling (change settings). and if you click on Thailand on the over/under value chart, the other chart changes.

For a person changing home currency into baht, the idea would be to buy now. For savings, take a glance at the currencies most undervalued as they should rise well over time. Sometimes they are undervalued due to risk such as Ukraine, or policy such as China.

Investments are best put into different baskets in different countries.

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

and this is interesting....

http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-graph-zoom.php?C1=USD&C2=THB&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1997&DD2=20&MM2=08&YYYY2=1998&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0&MM1Y=1

watch the baht go from 25 to 56 and back down (down is good). General direction since 2002 is stronger but politics and strife do have an impact.

The Philippines has never recovered....as it was in the 25 peso range before collapse in 1997/98

[Strangebrew]

Let me look at my crystal balls according to my balls and BOT it could go up it could go down But no matter what happens We will always make picture bright. Wait ghost tells me Frangs need to come to Thailand Cause TAT said tourism up.

[hugh2121]

555. Even the money experts won't guess tomorrow's rate never mind the rate in 10 years. Too many variables. Will the west continue to import manufactured goods from Asia, how far will western interest rates rise? Thailand relies on it's exports, lower exports means lower GDP and the SET and THB suffer. My advice...do NOT try to guess what the markets will do.

[IAMHERE]

What country has ever prospered under a military Junta?

What country has ever prospered after a general appointed himself Prime Minister for life?

If you can answer those questions, you have a good chance of predicting the future.

Democracy doesn't insure a strong currency.

I know what has happened to the US dollar in the last ten years and what has happened to it in the last 50 years.

OP, do not keep all your eggs in one basket. In fact, buy somethings other than eggs.

[tboxcar]

Correct, Democracy does not insure a strong currency, but when all else fails, 'walking with a big stick does' and when all else fails I want to have my money behind 'that big stick' and when somebody else carries 'that big stick' I will walk behind them.

But in this day and age, when a sovereign country can be overun overnight by a larger country, whether it be Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, or the South China Sea a strong currency does not mean 'Jack' unless you have the guns and will to back it up with. Not saying that Thailand is in immediate risk or any long term risk but risk is generally higher in countries that can't defend their borders as their economies are more vulernable. This being said I still plan on investing in Thailand soon, but won't store my eggs all in one basket.

[billd766]

I can't predict the future but I can show the last 15 years of daily rates from the KBank.

I did my retirement planning for two people back in 2002 at the current rate and now 12 years later there are 5 of us and a lower rate but we still live comfortably.

5 year trend 2000 to 2004 v01.xls

5 year trend 2005 to 2009 v01.xls

5 year trend 2010 to 2014 v01.xls

[dennisrobertpell]

In ten years time there will no currency worth anything unless its backed by gold or silver real money.

[zig]

What country has ever prospered under a military Junta?

What country has ever prospered after a general appointed himself Prime Minister for life?

If you can answer those questions, you have a good chance of predicting the future.

The answer would be - Chile. Still, I doubt that it helps my chance of predicting the future in any way.

[Jonmarleesco]

First of all, where did you get 25% from? It hasn't moved anything like that. YoY, in fact, has been around 7%.

Second, taking account of the political turmoil over the years, together with the financial crisis - which impacted every country, directly or indirectly - plus the various other factors - economy, corruption, etc, etc - the Baht, if anything, has been overvalued for many years, notwithstanding currencies, like anything else, can be manipulated.

As for those people in the know ... John Maynard Keynes once pointed out that there are just two types of forecaster: those who don't know; and those who don't know they don't know ...

[AnotherOneAmerican]

First of all, where did you get 25% from? It hasn't moved anything like that. YoY, in fact, has been around 7%.

Baht went from 44 to pound to 55 to pound in the last year.

That's 25% by my calculation.

[fletchsmile]

I'd have to agree with most here, anyone who can predict the THB's future for the next 10 years would be a genius and a rich man, the same with any currency, the best we can do is to look back. I have been visiting and living in Thailand since 1988 and remember when the THB was pegged to the dollar at 25, I remember as many do the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997-98.

One can safely assume that the Fed Reserve in American can't drop interest rates any lower and as the US Economy picks up steam, rates will go up, forcing many currencies down, it's the cheap money that the US has been pumping into the world economy since the crash of 2008 that has pumped up Emerging markets. With this money no longer cheap one can safely assume the dollar will get stonger and with turmoil in China (real estate bubble) only a fool would bet on their currency, the Euro will fluctuate but if Russia's expansionism resumes, there might not even be a Euro in 10 years, or it won't have the same players.

In the end I certainly would not bet against the THB, but would not dump all my money there either.

Agree with a lot of your analysis.

On the USD I'm less bullish though. A strengthening factor is as you say when it raises interest rates, as is people fleeing to the USD in times of trouble. Fleeing to USD in times of trouble though will be less and less in the future though, as people have realised the risks, and countries are gradually reducing reliance on the dollar. Geo-politically as well the US have a habit of p****ing people off, so China and Russia are just waiting for opportunities to reduce exposure. It won't happen overnight. USD is still important but past its prime and in long term decline.

Curiously tho' while I like your post and think a lot of it makes sense. I'd disagree with your conclusion the best we can do is look back.

No-one is right all the time, but if we're looking ahead 10 years, that's a reasonable time frame to smooth out the unexpected ups and downs and lay a stake in the ground. eg after 1997 I couldn't say exactly when and where THB would rise, but it was clear it would. Similarly for the Thai equity market. Of course there's been volatile ups and downs and if I were looking to exact numbers on exact dates I'd be wrong, but taking a view 15 years back served me well. I think that applies today as well.

Not to say you shouldn't hedge your best though, as we all get it wrong sometimes. Just that if I try and put the effort in I should get it right more often than not.

On the topic of looking back, we also have to be careful of game changers. Thailand and UK are both very different places than in the 1990's:

- Thailand no longer has a pegged currency, and has significantly improved its financial system.

- Thailand didn't repeat its mistakes in 2007 and had learnt from them, when the west messed up.

- On the other hand the UK is past it's prime and will be struggling for years to come with its debt and other structural problems. So downhill or flat for the UK is a reasonable bet to take and improvements for Thailand.... The factors that led to the Asian Crisis starting in Thailand aren't there now.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

All the paper fiat currencies will go down in purchasing power no matter what they will be worth in buying other paper currencies in 10 years.

Best to buy some gold now or if it dips any further. I guarantee you, it will be worth more against all paper currencies in 10 years.

I wonder why I took some many posts until the only option came up.

In Gold we trust.

Gold is the only long time currency since thousands of years.

Buy only physical gold. Less than 1% of the traded "gold" is gold. The rest is just paper like the fiat currencies.

Within the next 10 years the day will come and ALL fiat currencies will come down including the paper gold.

Good for you if you have some gold bahts.

(It is so easy to buy gold in Thailand anonymously. Almost every shopping center as a gold shop open every day.)

Don't forget that paper gold and ETFs were a key driver in recent years of driving up the gold price. Similarly they can also drive it down. I don't know why people miss out the importance of ETFs and paper gold on the way up, then scream manipulation and unfair when they accelerate falls on the way down.

Initially drops in paper gold will drive down physical gold prices too. A key game changer is paper gold didn't dwarf physical gold in the past, as it did in historical cycles, now it does.

If we get to Armeggedon stage as gold bugs often say, then it wouldn't be all rosy and people nicely swapping gold for other assets and loafs of bread. People will be physically taking your gold from you if it gets as bad as all fiat currencies failing. So your new found wealth won't last long

I'd rather hold farming land than gold when it gets to that stage... Someone will kill you for your gold on the other hand you can disappear and subsist in Nakorn Nowhere or Udom Outhere, away from the anarchy

Cheers

Fletch