Armed Forces Chief Says Coup D'etat 'only A Rumour'

[george]

Armed forces chief says coup d'etat 'only a rumour'

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's armed forces chief on Friday dismissed rumours that the Royal Thai Army has planned a coup d'etat against the government, saying that such an act would not benefit the nation.

Thai Armed Forces Supreme Commander Gen. Ruengroj Mahasaranond said the rumours regarding a military coup which have spread since early this year were groundless, entirely unsubstantiated, and that the media reporting on them has been misled by some ordinary military exercises that gave them the wrong idea.

''Don't listen to those rumours but listen to me," Gen. Ruengroj said. "The military will not do a coup d'etat because the country will suffer.''

However, the general acknowledged that some disagreements had indeed taken place among military personnel with different opinions regarding the annual reshuffle, but said that that was normal activity and that it did not cause a rift.

''People outside the military don't know the truth so they misunderstood us," Gen. Ruengroj said. "I want to reassure the public that the military is unified."

The supreme commander said he expected to propose the reshuffle list to the minister of defense next week.

''I will consult with the commanders of the three armed forces and the defense minister about any changes [that might take place] ahead of the meeting by the defense council,'' the supreme commander said.

--TNA 2006-07-21

[Pattayatony]

Armed forces chief says coup d'etat 'only a rumour'

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's armed forces chief on Friday dismissed rumours that the Royal Thai Army has planned a coup d'etat against the government, saying that such an act would not benefit the nation.

Thai Armed Forces Supreme Commander Gen. Ruengroj Mahasaranond said the rumours regarding a military coup which have spread since early this year were groundless, entirely unsubstantiated, and that the media reporting on them has been misled by some ordinary military exercises that gave them the wrong idea.

''Don't listen to those rumours but listen to me," Gen. Ruengroj said. "The military will not do a coup d'etat because the country will suffer.''

However, the general acknowledged that some disagreements had indeed taken place among military personnel with different opinions regarding the annual reshuffle, but said that that was normal activity and that it did not cause a rift.

''People outside the military don't know the truth so they misunderstood us," Gen. Ruengroj said. "I want to reassure the public that the military is unified."

The supreme commander said he expected to propose the reshuffle list to the minister of defense next week.

''I will consult with the commanders of the three armed forces and the defense minister about any changes [that might take place] ahead of the meeting by the defense council,'' the supreme commander said.

--TNA 2006-07-21

Where there is smoke there is fire:

[percy2]

Previous a coup d'etat haven't involved the Supreme Commander. Its normally the "Young Turks", less senior officers at the fore.

Touchy subject.

[tettyan]

Only a rumour? How do explain this in light of these events that happened the day after the rumours started circulating?

MILITARY TRANSFERS

Sonthi stuns by shifting PM's allies

Army chief sidelines officers close to premier; rifts likely to widen further in armed forces

Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin caught many by surprise after it was made public that he has just issued an order to transfer a number of middle-ranking officers who are close to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's military school classmates.

Out of the 129 transfers, more than half of the mid-ranking officers had been working under the command of generals who had graduated from the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School's Class 10, which Thaksin has close ties to.

These men were deemed to be essential to the Army's chain of command as they directly command troops and battalions on the ground, mostly attached to units based in Bangkok.

Sonthi's order was issued on Monday and posted on the Army's website yesterday. It is unusual for the Army to issue transfers at any time of the year other than December.

The move came amid ongoing tension in the military as General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, has been seen wearing a combat uniform over the past week. Prem has called on soldiers to support the monarchy and the country.

Sonthi's decision came amid reports that Thaksin was planning to kick him upstairs to the ceremonial post of Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief and replace him with General Pornchai Kranlert, the assistant Army chief and a key member of the Class 10 circle.

Sonthi left for the deep South yesterday on a trip aimed at strengthening the Army's relations with Muslim leaders. More than 1,300 people have been killed in the region due to insurgent violence since January 2004.

According to a source, Sonthi had discussed the transfers with Lt-General Anuphong Paojinda, the commander of the First Army Area. Although Anuphong is a Class 10 member, he is not considered to be linked politically to the Thaksin camp. He said the Army chief does not want officers with political links to be in key positions.

But Major General Prin Suwanathat, the commander of the First Infantry Division (Royal Guards) in Bangkok and a key Class 10 member, was kept in the dark by Sonthi. In fact, a number of Prin's soldiers under his command were transferred.

Prin found himself in the political spotlight last year after he handed a letter to Sonthi Limthonkul, a leading member of the anti-Thaksin movement, urging the media tycoon to refrain from making reference to the monarchy when attacking Thaksin.

Other key mid-ranking officers transferred under the Monday order include Lt-Colonel Khosit Shinwalan, commander of the Fourth Cavalry Battalion, an armoury unit based in Bangkok. He was transferred to a unit in Saraburi province. Khosit has family links to a Class 10 member.

Lt-Colonel Wejachak Khan-ubol, commander of the First Infantry Battalion, was transferred to a unit in Lop Buri, while Lt-Colonel Anuparp Sirimonthon, commander of the Third Infantry Battalion, was transferred to the South. Both battalions are under the Fist Infantry Division (Royal Guards), under Prin's command.

A group of Class 10 members, led by General Pornchai, had lunch together at the Royal Army Auditorium on Tuesday amid growing anxiety over the political situation. Afterwards, rumours of a military coup swirled around all evening and continued all day yesterday.

-The Nation, July 20, 2006

[tettyan]

More analysis of the sudden military transfers:

ANALYSIS

PM outflanked ahead of annual military reshuffle

The routine Army order to transfer 129 battalion-level commanders signals the start of a power play between professional soldiers and caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

By approving the rotations, Army Commander-in-Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin sent a message to Thaksin that the military would not get involved in nor condone his attempts to cling to power.

Just days after Privy Council president General Prem Tinsulanonda drew an analogy - comparing the military to a horse and the government to its jockey - Sonthi made it clear that the horse is prepared to bolt from under the rogue jockey. As the jockey, Thaksin had better be prepared to keep a tight grip on his reins or else he might fall off his steed.

Sonthi's move on Monday amounts to a pre-emptive strike, crippling the ability of Thaksin's military allies to intervene in or exert undue influence over political affairs. If Thaksin wants to retain his clout and use the military as a power base, then he has to plot round two to counter Sonthi's blitz.

Since taking the government helm in 2001, Thaksin has given his blessing to fast-track promotions for officers from Pre-Cadet Class 10, his classmates at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.

Even though he is an elected leader, he knows that when push comes to shove in real politics, his military allies can play a decisive role in ensuring his survival.

As the political crisis has gripped the nation for months, Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers have emerged as defenders behind Thaksin's throne.

Last year, the embattled prime minister manoeuvred for the appointments of his allies to key positions dominating the military presence in Bangkok, the seat of government.

Assistant Army chief General Pornchai Kranlert, First Army Area commander-general Lt-General Anupong Paochinda and First Infantry Division commander Maj-General Prin Suwanathat are seen as the linchpins of Thaksin's control over the military.

This coming October, Prin is due for a transfer after completing a three-year term. Pornchai is slated for promotion as Thaksin wants to see him wield greater influence on his behalf.

Anupong faces an uncertain future after government supporters spread rumours that he might be wavering in his loyalty to Thak-sin. Lt-General Jirasit Kesakomol, seen as a staunch Thaksin ally, is expected to succeed him.

Jirasit is presently the commander of the First Army Corps.

To push for Pornchai's promotion, Thaksin's allies have hinted that Sonthi might be kicked upstairs. If the government gets its way, Sonthi is likely to succeed Supreme Commander General Ruengroj Mahasaranont, who faces mandatory retirement in September.

Before Thaksin could make his first move to re-align the Army chain-of-command, Sonthi ordered sweeping transfers of combat commanders.

Top combat commanders, seen as close to Prin and Pornchai, were moved to staff positions or units located upcountry. Key infantry, cavalry and artillery commanding officers in Bangkok were completely shuffled out.

Many new commanders are veterans from the Queen's Guard of the 21st Infantry Regiment based in Chon Buri. These officers came from crack troops known for their valour and professionalism.

After Sonthi drew up a new line-up of combat forces, he won kudos for distancing the military from politics.

With the backing of combat commanders, the Army chief has gained the leverage to try and deter Thaksin from meddling in top-level transfers.

However, Thaksin still has the final say in the composition of the list of annual military rotations as it is up to him to seek the royal nod.

After his subordinates were delegated to inferior positions, Pornchai may not have the clout to replace Sonthi.

Thaksin would drive a wedge in the Army if he insists on bypassing seniority to promote his ally Pornchai.

A possible compromise is for Sonthi to keep his job while Thaksin has his say in elevating Pornchai to the position of deputy Army chief.

Should the government decide to transfer Sonthi regardless of the consequences, Thaksin may have to choose between two lead contenders, assistant Army chief General Paisal Katanyu and Army Chief-of-Staff Sophon Silpipat.

Compared to Pornchai, the two officers are more acceptable among the ranks to carry the Army's torch.

The replacement of Prin will likely generate heated debate.

Thaksin has lined up many division commanders from Pre-Cadet Class 10 as candidates to succeed Prin. As Prin's division is the most crucial unit in projecting military influence, the government obviously wants its trusted ally at the command post.

If professional soldiers are to stay in their barracks without fear of political reprisal, it is imperative that Prin's successor should be a career soldier and not a government crony.

Avudh Panananda

-The Nation, July 21, 2006

[tettyan]

Where there is smoke there is fire:

Exactly.

Military denies rumors of internal rifts

By Martin Petty

22 July 2006

Top military commanders yesterday sought to dampen rumors of an imminent coup d’etat, insisting their were no rifts within the armed forces despite the shock transfer of more than 100 officers with ties to the prime minister.

First Infantry Commander Maj-Gen Prin Suwanathat – who was kept in the dark about the transfer of many of Thaksin Shinawatra’s associates from pre-cadet school Class 10 – said there were no divisions within the armed forces and speculation of a coup was baseless.

Army chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratakalin is believed to have consulted with First Army Commander Lt-Gen Anupong Paojinda prior to announcing he would shift 129 mostly battalion commanders to posts outside the capital – a move widely seen as a preemptive strike to weaken Thaksin’s power base within an increasingly politicized military.

Lt-Gen Anupong, a former Class 10 member, may have switched sides from Thaksin to Gen Sonthi, and effectively, Privy Council President Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, sources close to the military say.

“I am puzzled by these news reports that I’m in dispute with Pi Ok,” Maj-Gen Prin said, referring to Lt-Gen Anupong by his nickname.

“We had dinner together only Wednesday. We have always been talking, that is why these rumors are spread. There is no trouble between us.”

Maj-Gen Prin – who last year penned a letter to Thaksin’s fiercest critic, Sondhi Limthongkul, asking him to refrain from insulting His Majesty the King during his public tirades against the premier – said busy schedules may have made it difficult for the two commanders to meet and discuss the transfer.

“The first army commander did not discuss the reshuffle with me, but this must have been because we had many meetings with other people,” he said. “There is no dispute between us.”

Analysts speculated that Gen Sonthi’s reshuffle was intended to send a message to Thaksin to stay out of the military’s affairs, amid growing tension between the embattled premier and Gen Prem, His Majesty’s most trusted aide.

Thaksin angered the military when he talked of a “charismatic individual” above the Constitution who was seeking to oust him – a comment widely interpreted as a swipe at Gen Prem.

A week ago, Gen Prem told the military their allegiance was with the King and not politicians.

The reshuffle followed rumors that Thaksin was looking to replace Gen Sonthi with Gen Pornchai Kranlert, a close associate of the premier.

Gen Sonthi has never sided with Thaksin, and has always maintained his duty is to King and country and not the government. The army chief has so far made no comment on the reshuffle.

Armed Forces Supreme Commander Gen Ruengroj Mahasaranont yesterday dismissed talk of a coup as media speculation, insisting that the military would not get involved in politics.

“These news reports are not true,” he told reporters. “Outsiders know nothing about what happens in the military. Military officers are disciplined and other people are speaking for them,” he said.

Gen Ruengroj, who is due to retire this year, admitted there were often “small disputes” within the armed forces, but none that would result in a coup.

“I assure everyone that there are no underlying tensions. I want to reassure the public that the military is unified and a coup would only harm this country.”

-IHT Thai Day

[Netfan]

Boy are things getting interesting. October is an auspicious month for this kind of thing..........

[Plus]

I think the Supreme General is right - it's just rumors. Yes, people are jokeying for power, for "just in case", but there are no concrete plans by either side, I think.

The situation is not ready for a coup. Even at the height of PAD protests coup/crackdown would have been suicidal. Glad to see Thailand behaving more like a civilised country than a banana republic, or at least applying civilised countries standards.

[OldAsiaHand]

On the other hand, Prem suddenly starting to make public appearances dressed in his old military uniform can't be just a conincidence. Don't tell me all his other suits were at the cleaners. Sounds to me like very public warning to 'somebody'.........

[Greer]

Hmmm, I think OHA may be about right. The Thai way might be to make a subtle hint that things were not the way they should be, and only make real moves as a last resort, if the subject doesn't take the hint...

[Johpa]

Only a rumour? How do explain this in light of these events that happened the day after the rumours started circulating?

MILITARY TRANSFERS

Sonthi stuns by shifting PM's allies

Army chief sidelines officers close to premier; rifts likely to widen further in armed forces

Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin caught many by surprise after it was made public that he has just issued an order to transfer a number of middle-ranking officers who are close to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's military school classmates.

Out of the 129 transfers, more than half of the mid-ranking officers had been working under the command of generals who had graduated from the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School's Class 10, which Thaksin has close ties to.

These men were deemed to be essential to the Army's chain of command as they directly command troops and battalions on the ground, mostly attached to units based in Bangkok.....

-The Nation, July 20, 2006

Uh, just what sort of military has such large numbers of 57 year old batallion commanders hanging around?

Chaiyo!