Thai-China ties destined for new level of strategic significance

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Thai-China ties destined for new level of strategic significance
Kavi Chongkittavorn

BANGKOK: -- Left unattended by the major Western powers following the May 22 coup, Thailand and China have quickly strengthened their relations - especially in longstanding defence cooperation.

During the brief visit to China last week of Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister General Pravit Wongsuwan, Thailand and China agreed to conduct a joint air force exercise for the first time within a year - and all three armed forces will now participate in full-scale bilateral military drills.

The new collaboration can pose a direct challenge to the all-weather US-dominated security exercises held regularly with Thailand over the past five decades. A new pattern China-led security network, which anchors on Thai-China friendship, could loop in neighbouring countries such as Laos, Cambodia and possibly Myanmar in the near future.

Two years ago, China successfully created an international force, the first of its kind, to provide security protection along the Mekong River after 13 Chinese passengers were killed inside a boat sailing inside Thai territory. China's collaboration with the security units from Myanmar, Laos and Thailand is still a work in progress due to different practices and norms.

Although Thailand and China declared their "comprehensive strategic partnership" in 2012, their joint military drills are still at a nascent stage. With the participation of air forces, the prospect of Thai-China defence cooperation would increase and serve as a pivot for China's effort to build up new Asian security architecture as advocated by President Xi Jingping. In May, he called for the establishment of Asian security by Asian countries that can solve Asian problems.

Since the start of the Sino-Thai Defense and Security Consultation in 2001, defence cooperation has gradually expanded in scope and areas of cooperation, including joint development and technological transfers. The most notable were a series of Thai-China special force training exercises with the code name "Strike" which ran from 2007-2013. The Thai and Chinese navies also held two anti-terrorism exercises under the code name "Blue Strike." The first in 2010 was staged in Chon Buri, Rayong and Chanthaburi. However, it was the second in 2012, conducted inside Guangdong province in the waters off Shanwei in Zhanjiang, that rattled US strategists due to the large number of marine corps involved, totalling 500, with highly classified tactics and techniques used during training. Both sides still needed to reconcile different military doctrines and improve their interoperability.

During Pravit's visit, Thailand and China agreed to expand the four-year joint development of multiple rocket launchers known as DTI-1G, which ends in 2015. Other new cooperation including space, information and communications technology and new weapons procurement to be spelled out during next week's visit of Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha. At the working level, there were discussions on how to make the Thai-China ties more strategic with many proposals including the two plus two (foreign affairs and defence) ministerial meeting.

To outsiders, the increased intimacy between Thailand and China in the post-coup was due to two major reasons. First, the Chinese leader's understanding and sympathy towards Thailand's political vulnerability and his willingness to adopt "business as usual" with Thailand. Second, the country's lack of a viable option to jump start ties with Western countries, which condemned the coup, continues to favour its ties with China.

Truth be told, after the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1975, regional crisis such as the Cambodian conflict (1979-1992) and the Asian financial crisis (1997), as well as Thai political quagmire, have played important roles in boosting Thai-China relations. In the truest sense of the word, Beijing has proved it has been a virtual ally of Thailand.

However, from within, there has been some soul-searching among top military leaders on any move to approach the two prominent powers - China and the US - that would shape the future strategic landscape of Asia and Asean. The alliance with the US since 1954, which has been the country's biggest security asset, no longer holds the same value as in the past. After the coup, Thailand has become more recalcitrant towards the US. In the past, it has responded to US strategic requirements. However, from the Thai point of view, the lack of understanding and "hurtful" American responses, especially those coming from their diplomats stationed here, towards the internal situation was a barometer of Washington's disinterest and insensitivity.

Whether by default or design, China's pro-active diplomacy and security overtures over medium and long-term will be a potent force to weaken the US-led alliance system in the region, directly impacting the Thai-US military pact. By mid-November, all top Thai military coup leaders would have visited China - while the US continues to ban high-level contacts for both military and civilians. It will remain until a new election. However, the Asia-Pacific region's largest Thai-US military exercise, Cobra Gold, will proceed as planned with a scaling down of military personnel.

At the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting, Prayut has scheduled a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping. What emerged from the meeting would be indicators of future Thai-China pathways - essentially utilising Thailand as a springboard for the integration of Southwest China to mainland Southeast Asia through physical connectivity. Xi wants to showcase the Sino-Thai ties that are "equitable", "mutually beneficial" and "win-win" to win over other Asean countries.

For decades, China has been eager to construct physical links, both road and railway, with its underdeveloped southwest region to mainland Southeast Asia. River and road links are now common transportation linking the two regions. For the immediate future, China wants to build railways connecting Yunnan through Vientiane and then across the Mekong River to Nong Khai, leading to Nakhon Ratchasima and then to Laem Chabang deep sea port in eastern Thailand. Other rail-construction projects were discussed in past years, but so far there has been no concrete agreement on construction as more countries would have to get involved.

In retrospect, political turmoil and the rice-related scandal during the Yingluck administration seriously affected China's long-standing interest on infrastructure projects amid Thailand's growing unpredictability. Under the Thaksin administration, Beijing was confident the railway projects including other infrastructure plans would go through, mainly due to Thaksin's political longevity. That proved not to be the case. After the coup in 2006, China has painstakingly built up ties with subsequent Thai governments focusing once again on infrastructure projects.

Given the unique circumstance Thailand is in today and China's enthusiasm for infrastructural deals and trade-offs, the Thai-China ties are destined to move to a new level of strategic significance, whatever the unintended consequences might be.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thai-China-ties-destined-for-new-level-of-strategi-30246792.html

-- The Nation 2014-11-03

[Thanatta]

Kick out of our planet the USA and we will have again a future without to much wars!

Let's again fight the neighbor-countries in all the world there "games" without USA and other international powers.

This would be again how it declars i.e. the old testament: Eye for Eye - Tooth for Tooth ! This is the nature as created and existing since the beginning of our world!

So every part of the world clear so there problems locally. The Arabs - the Africans - the Asians - the European - the American Once.

The catholic missionaires startet the Globalisation!!!!!! Think about!

[BigRick]

Kick out of our planet the USA and we will have again a future without to much wars!

Let's again fight the neighbor-countries in all the world there "games" without USA and other international powers.

This would be again how it declars i.e. the old testament: Eye for Eye - Tooth for Tooth ! This is the nature as created and existing since the beginning of our world!

So every part of the world clear so there problems locally. The Arabs - the Africans - the Asians - the European - the American Once.

The catholic missionaires startet the Globalisation!!!!!! Think about!

Lol Yankee go home leave money we invent everything in Thailand! We not need money or vote we have water buffalo! So question som chi, If you hate America so much why use our technology and finance? I am sure we can arrange to retroactively apply the division of SIam after WW2 by the British and the French for its treachery. Please also do not accept any aid or political patronage from the West.

[chainarong]

Strategic is the key word here, China has a reputation of interfering in domestic issues, undermining factions and trying to develop distrust within the community, what better place than Thailand, dysfunctional from Immigration , through to rampant corruption to human rights issues, Myanmar worked China out early in the piece and acted accordingly, this would be a prize for China as the US now seems to look to Australia as a more strategic, reliable partner, perhaps cultural and ideologies are more aligned, whatever the outcome Thailand will be the loser tying the knot with China..

[ExPratt]

When you look who has been to China from Thailand recently and who is going soon , you could say there is something being worked out for the long term , beyond the Junta , which is every investors fear for Thailand. I'd say the Chinese will back (pay for)the new Railway works , I doubt all singing all dancing 300kph high speed , but anything over 220kph constitutes a high speed and if far cheaper

Edited November 3, 2014 by ExPratt

[Thai at Heart]

This is just typical sabre rattling from Thailand back to the USA

The USA is Thailands biggest strategic military ally. You think the sitting military junta is going to drop all its friends and go off to be China's bbf?

All twaddle. The Thais know which way their bread is buttered and they can get far more attention in Washington than they can in Beijing.

[doggie888888]

Kick out of our planet the USA and we will have again a future without to much wars!

Let's again fight the neighbor-countries in all the world there "games" without USA and other international powers.

This would be again how it declars i.e. the old testament: Eye for Eye - Tooth for Tooth ! This is the nature as created and existing since the beginning of our world!

So every part of the world clear so there problems locally. The Arabs - the Africans - the Asians - the European - the American Once.

The catholic missionaires startet the Globalisation!!!!!! Think about!

Do you know how many wars had been fought before the discovery of the usa? Lol.

I doubt you will get world peace after you "kick out of our planet the usa".

[NeverSure]

Imagine what the world would be like without the USA, and rather dominated by China. Worse, a coalition of China and Russia.

Not long ago the US stepped up to the plate when China was threatening fisheries in the S. China Sea, was threatening commercial aircraft routes, and was threatening to take over some Islands of other Asian countries. The US sailed a couple of Nimitz class carrier groups through the area in a show of force.

If Thailand gets in bed with China and loses the current defense treaty it has with the US, it will get gobbled up before it knows it. It is playing with fire.

[jaltsc]

"However, from the Thai point of view, the lack of understanding and "hurtful" American responses, especially those coming from their diplomats stationed here, towards the internal situation was a barometer of Washington's disinterest and insensitivity."

Translation: American tourism in Thailand is down.

If America did invade Thailand, the only help Thailand would ask of China would be to build toll booths along every road so they could collect more American dollars.

Edited November 3, 2014 by jaltsc

[ggt]

By mid-November, all top Thai military coup leaders would have visited China - while the US continues to ban high-level contacts for both military and civilians.

China is a savvy and influential neighbor...the US is being run by folks who appear to be unable to grasp the importance of foreign diplomacy...especially in the Asian theatre...

It is understandable that Thailand would move toward a regional power who is courting them...and not judging them...willing to work jointly on future cooperative projects...

It will be the US who looses in this realignment of power in this area of the world...

[EyesWideOpen]

Funny stuff. Thailand should be more worried about being taken over by

China, rather than cementing " ties". Sort of like trying to make friends with

a bully, and then he decides to beat you up. But given the dominance of

Thai-Chinese at all power levels of Thailand, a stronger alliance with

China would be a natural outcome of that. And right now, the two

governments have sort of the same style.... :-) So could be a match

made in heaven.

[NeverSure]

By mid-November, all top Thai military coup leaders would have visited China - while the US continues to ban high-level contacts for both military and civilians.

China is a savvy and influential neighbor...the US is being run by folks who appear to be unable to grasp the importance of foreign diplomacy...especially in the Asian theatre...

It is understandable that Thailand would move toward a regional power who is courting them...and not judging them...willing to work jointly on future cooperative projects...

It will be the US who looses in this realignment of power in this area of the world...

Uhhhh.... The US is by far the biggest buyer of Chinese goods, surpassing even the entire EU. The US has the world's largest economy by more than double, and China has a tiny percentage of the military that the US has.

How is the US going to lose anything if Thailand gets gobbled up by China, and the US and Japan stop manufacturing in Thailand?

China devours everything in its path unless the US stops it. The US might just let China take Thailand. It's not in the mood to support a dictator.

[Krataiboy]

Kick out of our planet the USA and we will have again a future without to much wars!

Let's again fight the neighbor-countries in all the world there "games" without USA and other international powers.

This would be again how it declars i.e. the old testament: Eye for Eye - Tooth for Tooth ! This is the nature as created and existing since the beginning of our world!

So every part of the world clear so there problems locally. The Arabs - the Africans - the Asians - the European - the American Once.

The catholic missionaires startet the Globalisation!!!!!! Think about!

One can only assume you learned history at a Thai school and are in need of further education. I suggest a quick Google of words like Vikings, Mongols, Romans, Ottomans for starters.

The US's transparent efforts to save its crumbling empire, whether inspired by Catholics or corporations, reflect those of other world superpowers who, in the end, found they had bitten off more than they could chew.

All empires rise and fall and always have. You just have to wait long enough, that's all. But remember the lessons of history (assuming you had any): when empires totter and fall, so do their vassals. Maybe somebody at the helm in Thailand has seen the writing on the wall. . .

[Jackson86]

traditionally, china has a strong cultural influence on its neighbors, including thailand, where, despite 14% population, thai chinese holds most of the country's gdp. SEA is china's ' backyard', similar to south america central america being usa's 'backyard'.