What are the chances of thai property market crash?

[trogers]

"Quite likely next year but very hard to predict,"

​You just predicted it. Everyone who has refused to purchase real estate predicted that the market will crash as some point, and uses that conviction to not buy. Everyone who has purchased real estate predicted that the market will not crash.

I would correct that last statement - Everyone who has purchased real estate deep in a cyclical upswing predicted that the market will not crash.

I am one investor who buys near the bottom of cycles, and thus anticipates and welcome crashes.

[fish fingers]

The end game is populations don't shrink. Property is a good investment if you buy at the right time

I currency trade to protect myself - last year's troubles were great, I made more than 15% on sterling baht

[trogers]

The end game is populations don't shrink. Property is a good investment if you buy at the right time

I currency trade to protect myself - last year's troubles were great, I made more than 15% on sterling baht

Populations do shrink. The population growth of many developed nations is slowing and is below the replacement factor of 2. China will see a drastic reduction in population numbers a few decades into the future due to their one-child policy, and having more male than female.

Another example is Singapore. Back in the early 2000s, the government eased up on foreign immigration into the country to boost population numbers.

[fish fingers]

The end game is populations don't shrink. Property is a good investment if you buy at the right time

I currency trade to protect myself - last year's troubles were great, I made more than 15% on sterling baht

Populations do shrink. The population growth of many developed nations is slowing and is below the replacement factor of 2. China will see a drastic reduction in population numbers a few decades into the future due to their one-child policy, and having more male than female.

Another example is Singapore. Back in the early 2000s, the government eased up on foreign immigration into the country to boost population numbers.

Biggest load of crap I've ever read. When was the last time China's population went down? 1961. Thailand's grows by around 0.6% a year.

Ever heard of Migration?

[trogers]

The end game is populations don't shrink. Property is a good investment if you buy at the right time

I currency trade to protect myself - last year's troubles were great, I made more than 15% on sterling baht

Populations do shrink. The population growth of many developed nations is slowing and is below the replacement factor of 2. China will see a drastic reduction in population numbers a few decades into the future due to their one-child policy, and having more male than female.

Another example is Singapore. Back in the early 2000s, the government eased up on foreign immigration into the country to boost population numbers.

Biggest load of crap I've ever read. When was the last time China's population went down? 1961. Thailand's grows by around 0.6% a year.

Ever heard of Migration?

Migration covers two opposing actions - immigrate and emigrate. Which do you think Communist China faces?

[alexanderthai]

Bangkok : Property will be more expensive. There are many investors from around the world especially Chinese , Korean , Japanese will bring Bangkok market goes up from Thailand logistic location.

Pattaya : Property such as Condominium will go down because the majority customers who invest are Russian. They have problem with their exchange rate plus there are some developers who have no enough protential but try to gain money from the customers. Therefore , before investing condominium in Pattaya, you must checking the developers background and asking for EIA approve licence to protect your investment. Other residential : House , Building , land and so on. they are not affect so much as long as the Thai bank support mortgage for Thai local people.

[trogers]

The end game is populations don't shrink. Property is a good investment if you buy at the right time

I currency trade to protect myself - last year's troubles were great, I made more than 15% on sterling baht

Populations do shrink. The population growth of many developed nations is slowing and is below the replacement factor of 2. China will see a drastic reduction in population numbers a few decades into the future due to their one-child policy, and having more male than female.

Another example is Singapore. Back in the early 2000s, the government eased up on foreign immigration into the country to boost population numbers.

Biggest load of crap I've ever read. When was the last time China's population went down? 1961. Thailand's grows by around 0.6% a year.

Ever heard of Migration?

Migration covers two opposing actions - immigrate and emigrate. Which do you think Communist China faces?

Japan suffers lowest number of births on record as population shrinks

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/01/japan-suffers-lowest-number-of-births-on-record-as-population-shrinks

[pegman]

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/stock-market-crash-warren-buffett-indicator/2014/10/03/id/598461/?dkt_nbr=ufos34vz&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

And

http://uk.businessinsider.com/roubini-the-mother-of-all-asset-bubbles-will-burst-in-2016-2014-12?r=US

Maybe one of these years these Yahoos might luck out and it it right. My rail shares are up 65% since this came out>

http://www.qqq-stock-trading.com/money-news-com-stock-market-crash-any-day-now/

[clownsyndrome]

The end game is populations don't shrink. Property is a good investment if you buy at the right time

I currency trade to protect myself - last year's troubles were great, I made more than 15% on sterling baht

Populations do shrink. The population growth of many developed nations is slowing and is below the replacement factor of 2. China will see a drastic reduction in population numbers a few decades into the future due to their one-child policy, and having more male than female.

Another example is Singapore. Back in the early 2000s, the government eased up on foreign immigration into the country to boost population numbers.

Biggest load of crap I've ever read. When was the last time China's population went down? 1961. Thailand's grows by around 0.6% a year.

Ever heard of Migration?

Migration covers two opposing actions - immigrate and emigrate. Which do you think Communist China faces?

Fish fingers don't fall the the off subject troll trick.

[SiSePuede419]

Wonder how much of this property bubble is financed with black money,

all that corruption and drug money has to go some where.

regards worgeordie

BINGO!

Since the NSA can monitor any cell phone SIM card in the world, any hard drive, any email and any https banking transaction, the only "safe" way to launder corruption or drug money is to buy real estate. Thailand, Singapore, London, Sydney, New York City, Detroit (<deleted>? )... it's all a bubble fueled by cocaine, heroin and corruption.

It's been confirmed by research by the NYT into luxury condos in Manhattan

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/nyregion/stream-of-foreign-wealth-flows-to-time-warner-condos.html?referrer=

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-21/americas-ultra-luxury-housing-bubble-has-burst-deals-have-slowed-trickle

If shady real estate is happening in America, can you imagine how easy it is for a corrupr politician in Africa or a drug cartel kingpin in Columbia to buy here in Thailand:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/02/19/realestate/house-hunting-in-thailand.html?referrer=

The money is even going into startups in China:

http://knowledge.ckgsb.edu.cn/2015/02/10/finance-and-investment/is-there-a-start-up-bubble-in-china/

Be very, very afraid about investing in residential, retail or condos in LOS

[Mencken]

There are a number of provinces I will never buy in and its sad bcz many are popular places to live, with lots of real estate and potential opportunities. Two factors, Immigration hassles and crime. Phuket and Pattaya come swiftly to mind.

A larger issue is when foreigners wake upbto these facts, it doesn't take long before the feeling of buying anywhere sours.

The people on marriage visas are treated miserably and retirees not much better. All are on "temporary stay", that is no condition or terms to buy a home.

Thailand desperately needs a permanent residence visa, say based on a 2m investment in property in which the pwrson dwells and a bankbook of say 150k, 30 days. Period. No drama. Reporting every four or six months (1-2x).

Thailand is well on its way of pissing off a legion of baby boomers. They don't come back. Seems the building industry should cate more but I have a feeling the govt does what it pleases snd everyone has to live with the aftermath.

I was mildly contemplating looming at some property surrounding Pattaya (well on the periphery of Chonb prov). Given the latest nonsense, nope, nope and nope.

So, not only am I not a buyer, I'm not even a dweller. These provs can kiss my spending good bye. Situations are so poor in these provinces, I refuse to even visit.

Pattaya in particular is going to crash and burn, how can it not? Seriously. Horrible crime rate, much of it violent, total hassle of Immigration, a notoriously sour place to mix with Thai, absolute tons of condos and hotel rooms, over built for a constituency (Russians) that paid a small down and have literally walked away (poor locations, dubious amens, no financing).

PS someone stated that these units are/were being sold to older mc Thai to pass down to family. Very not so. They try to hook the affluent younger set and its basically a scam - buy it and it will pay for itself sort of timeshare nonsense. These were in the best of times. So you see its all a house of cards in Pattaya.

Edited February 21, 2015 by Mencken

[KittenKong]

There's certainly more crime in Pattaya these days, but I dont seem to have any trouble avoiding it.

As for Immigration there can be little doubt that Jomtien is far and away the easiest place in the country to do a retirement extension. It costs a total of 2000B (incl 100B for the bank letter) and took me about 15 minutes last year, spread over 2 days. The only way they could improve it is by making it free.

[SiSePuede419]

There's certainly more crime in Pattaya these days, but I dont seem to have any trouble avoiding it.

As for Immigration there can be little doubt that Jomtien is far and away the easiest place in the country to do a retirement extension. It costs a total of 2000B (incl 100B for the bank letter) and took me about 15 minutes last year, spread over 2 days. The only way they could improve it is by making it free.

It's amazing how many Farang in Thailand have "little doubt" about anything they believe, 555.

The Chiang Rai Immigration office renews retirement visas on Mondays and Wednesday's. But if you live in Pattaya, then it's the best place in the whole, wide world. Obviously, the universe revolves around you...

[Strangebrew]

*Well give you a clue when the supply goes way over the demands you might have an issue. As far as when look around see any buyers beating down the doors? but another sign it might be at hand hand is when it starts raining Thai's instead of Farangs

[Strangebrew]

Besides renting is nice place gets boring or old pack your few things and move on no worries that you need buyer just thank you and BYE. TV burns out have owner replace or move on. besides I have a condo I own and lease out in Vegas it gives me more than enough return to pay for several rentals here. Which I rent now You know one can only take so much of BKK and you need a break. Nice beach retreat like Phuket or Hua Hin. Noticed I didn't say Koh Tao they won't get the sweat off my b-lls much-less a single satang from me.

[InvestingIsMyLife]

There is a Thai real estate market crash just beginning. The bubble is bursting. This means a drop in prices in BKK of around 25%. In smaller market, the price could drop as much as 50%. But why would you want to invest in Thailand real estate? Check out this story from facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Justice-for-Jessie/769279926474912

And if you think you are getting "facts" from this website, think again:

To quote her:

"Phuket court has hundreds of cases of foreigners being cheated and look at the Thaivisa.com why do they not report what is happening? Is it because they promote the sales of property in Thailand? Try sharing and see what happens... Ask the Phuket Gazette, Phuket News and Phuket Wan why they don't report on what is really happening in Phuket. Why Thaivisa.com refuse to accept posts on property fraud?"

[Robert24]

You talk about fraud and corruption in the 2nd part which has little to do with the topic. Now for the first part, if you think the property market is crashing right now I assume you are positioned to profit from this, right? Short positions in all the right stocks etc? You put your money where your mouth is?

[Strangebrew]

As far as farangs being cheated In any real estate transaction the Buyer Being yourself or others check all the facts of your purchase, such as ownership rights What is your recourse, risks involved, then decide if it is worth it. You can get ripped off anywhere where property is concerned not just Thailand. What about the hundreds of thousands Who owe more than the properties resale value in the US?

[Mencken]

There's certainly more crime in Pattaya these days, but I dont seem to have any trouble avoiding it.

As for Immigration there can be little doubt that Jomtien is far and away the easiest place in the country to do a retirement extension. It costs a total of 2000B (incl 100B for the bank letter) and took me about 15 minutes last year, spread over 2 days. The only way they could improve it is by making it free.

Seems like the marriage visa, all other visas and reporting is bedlam though. Even if what you say is true.

Id never live in anything labelled Pattaya and Jomtien. Outer areas north snd south Chonburi, maybe. Never live on snything but seaside strip in yhat province. Huge housing glut everywhere.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Mencken

[Hostile]

its coming

im not sure link is alowed

if not appologies

http://www.bangkokpost.com/vdo/business-and-property/489740/demand-is-waning-for-condos

[nontabury]

I'm no expert, but if think the condo market in Pattaya/Jomtien is wide open, thousands of units empty. Would only buy house/land, but not in wife's name !

How do you buy land not in wife's name?

Via a company, a son, a daughter, a friend, etc. There are lost of ways. But if someone doesn't trust their wife you have to wonder why they married her and why they are still with her. I just can't get my head around the fact that so many people are in relationships where they is zero trust. It's very sad. There are so many wonderful and trustworthy women in the world, so why on earth marry an untrustworthy woman? The mind boggles.

Buying land as you suggest is either illegal or YOU never actually own it.

As for the part about, "There are so many wonderful and trustworthy women in the world, so why on earth marry an untrustworthy woman? The mind boggles".

The mind certainly does!! No-one intentionally marries an untrustworthy woman (do they?) however in LOS there are countless incidents where a seemingly "good" woman rips off the person whose mindset reflects your statement above.......why even today on TV there are two stories re. money being stolen by a "trusted" wife and another farang losing his money when investing in an elephant sanctuary in Chiang Mai.

In a country where corruption is endemic and even children see it as acceptable (recent survey), then it's no surprise that "trust" is not seen here as a priority.

When I said buy in wife, so or daughter's name, I meant buy for them so that they are the owners. I didn't mean to use them to hold property that's really yours. I think that is part of the difference between the West and Asia. In the West, most people tend to be me, me, me. hey want everything in their own name. In Asia, family seems to be more important and hence a family owning something in their name is still since as a family asset. I don't have children, but if I did I'd happily buy a house in their name and live there myself. When I get married i also inten to buy a house in my wife's name. It will be her house.

Regarding untrustworthy women, of course you could marry someone that you think to be trustworthy and they turn out not to be. But I do think many farangs here marry women that they know to be untrustworthy right from the start. Just read through this forum. Even before they get married they say they will never buy anything in their wife's name. Not much trust there. My parents never thought like that. Some assets were in joint names and some in the name of one of the other. It was normal for them. Even even bought UK property in relatives names just because I wasn't there at the time to sign the documents. Never did i think they'd run off with my assets. Same here. You can never be 100% sure, but you can be pretty close to knowing if someone is trustworthy. If you don't trust them enough to own a property in their name, then why would you marry them in the first place. That's the things I don't get.

Suppose only Brits could own property in UK and suppose I was about to marry a rich non-Brit woman and live together in the UK. Now also suppose she told me that even though we were about to get married she would never trust me enough to buy property in my name, I'd dump here. I just wouldn't want to marry someone I was committing the rest of my life to if she was openly declaring that she'd never fully trust me. I just don't see how a relationship like that can work. How on earth can you have a good relationship if you have so little trust in your wife. I really don't understand them mentality of people that do that. I'd rather not get married.

Yes there are many trustworthy women in Thailand, they are not all liars and thieves. Yet unfortunately things in life can change, and let's remember that there is no law in Thailand as we know in the UK. And because circumstances can change any Farang who is using HIS money to buy property here, would be very foolish not to try and cover his back as much as possible.

[Hostile]

I'm no expert, but if think the condo market in Pattaya/Jomtien is wide open, thousands of units empty. Would only buy house/land, but not in wife's name !

How do you buy land not in wife's name?

Via a company, a son, a daughter, a friend, etc. There are lost of ways. But if someone doesn't trust their wife you have to wonder why they married her and why they are still with her. I just can't get my head around the fact that so many people are in relationships where they is zero trust. It's very sad. There are so many wonderful and trustworthy women in the world, so why on earth marry an untrustworthy woman? The mind boggles.

Buying land as you suggest is either illegal or YOU never actually own it.

As for the part about, "There are so many wonderful and trustworthy women in the world, so why on earth marry an untrustworthy woman? The mind boggles".

The mind certainly does!! No-one intentionally marries an untrustworthy woman (do they?) however in LOS there are countless incidents where a seemingly "good" woman rips off the person whose mindset reflects your statement above.......why even today on TV there are two stories re. money being stolen by a "trusted" wife and another farang losing his money when investing in an elephant sanctuary in Chiang Mai.

In a country where corruption is endemic and even children see it as acceptable (recent survey), then it's no surprise that "trust" is not seen here as a priority.

When I said buy in wife, so or daughter's name, I meant buy for them so that they are the owners. I didn't mean to use them to hold property that's really yours. I think that is part of the difference between the West and Asia. In the West, most people tend to be me, me, me. hey want everything in their own name. In Asia, family seems to be more important and hence a family owning something in their name is still since as a family asset. I don't have children, but if I did I'd happily buy a house in their name and live there myself. When I get married i also inten to buy a house in my wife's name. It will be her house.

Regarding untrustworthy women, of course you could marry someone that you think to be trustworthy and they turn out not to be. But I do think many farangs here marry women that they know to be untrustworthy right from the start. Just read through this forum. Even before they get married they say they will never buy anything in their wife's name. Not much trust there. My parents never thought like that. Some assets were in joint names and some in the name of one of the other. It was normal for them. Even even bought UK property in relatives names just because I wasn't there at the time to sign the documents. Never did i think they'd run off with my assets. Same here. You can never be 100% sure, but you can be pretty close to knowing if someone is trustworthy. If you don't trust them enough to own a property in their name, then why would you marry them in the first place. That's the things I don't get.

Suppose only Brits could own property in UK and suppose I was about to marry a rich non-Brit woman and live together in the UK. Now also suppose she told me that even though we were about to get married she would never trust me enough to buy property in my name, I'd dump here. I just wouldn't want to marry someone I was committing the rest of my life to if she was openly declaring that she'd never fully trust me. I just don't see how a relationship like that can work. How on earth can you have a good relationship if you have so little trust in your wife. I really don't understand them mentality of people that do that. I'd rather not get married.

Yes there are many trustworthy women in Thailand, they are not all liars and thieves. Yet unfortunately things in life can change, and let's remember that there is no law in Thailand as we know in the UK. And because circumstances can change any Farang who is using HIS money to buy property here, would be very foolish not to try and cover his back as much as possible.

Apparently its so easy to transfer ownership of property to someone else without owner sign.

Its happend to Colin Vard he lost 7 properties with forged sign.

Go to Andrew Drummon site